Brewers trade Feyereisen, Rasmussen to Rays for SS Willy Adames, RHP Trevor Richards

[Pugger]

I like Rasmussen and Feyereisen, but I'll take Adames in a heartbeat for them. The guy was a 4.0 WAR player in 2019. 1.9 WAR in 2020 in just 54 games. 4.0 WAR players are good to get. Yes, he's having a tough 2021, but I'm hoping he can rebound. If he can, that gives us a lot of control of a quality SS. I love that idea.

 

Adames isn't the only one having a tough 2021...

[roadcrew3]

Regardless, I am excited to see Willy Adames at shortstop in the coming years. The Brewers will now have Adames under control for his age-25 through age-28 seasons. I think there’s a decent chance Adames has a 4+ WAR season or two over that span. As much as this trade helps the shortstop position immediately, I think the biggest payoff for the Brewers is likely to be realized in the coming years.

 

One other random observation, it sort of feels like this might be a big weight off of Luis Urias’ shoulders. He seemed to have bonded quickly with Arcia and spoke of how sad he was when he found out he’d been traded earlier this season. Urias came up through the minors with Fernando Tatis, and sort of took a complementary role to Tatis’ burgeoning stardom. I saw it reported that Urias met Adames during warmups with a big hug and the two were paired up throughout warmups. As silly as it might sound I am not really convinced Urias was totally comfortable in a position where he was the clear everyday shortstop. I think it’s at least possible he’ll be better in a lower pressure utility role.

 

Urias was actually looking like a step up from Arcia in one big way:

- He walks a lot more. 20 BB in 123 AB this year

- 58 walks to 495 ABs career

- This year, we're also seeing Urias show a power surge. In 123 ABs, he has a career-high 5 HR. He had 4 HR in 215 ABs in 2019.

 

Honestly, Shaw/Adames/Wong/Hiura with Urias/Vogelbach as the backups are not bad, if Hiura and Adames rebound.

 

And all we gotta do is get Yelich back to 20181/2019 form, where pitching to him was like kicking to Devin Hester... enjoyable for fans of one team, and a moment of dread for everyone else.

 

This is a level of optimism I just can't reach anymore. If every player played to the high end of their career averages, then definitely this is a good group, but there is just absolutely no reason to think any of these players will do that. Even if Hiura returns to 2019 form, that won't make this a good group, it just would mean we have a good hitting first baseman.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like Rasmussen and Feyereisen, but I'll take Adames in a heartbeat for them. The guy was a 4.0 WAR player in 2019. 1.9 WAR in 2020 in just 54 games. 4.0 WAR players are good to get. Yes, he's having a tough 2021, but I'm hoping he can rebound. If he can, that gives us a lot of control of a quality SS. I love that idea.

 

I'm with you on that. When was the last time the Brewers had a SS with a 4 WAR? It was nice not holding my breath every time he makes a throw to first too.

[MrTPlush]

I like Rasmussen and Feyereisen, but I'll take Adames in a heartbeat for them. The guy was a 4.0 WAR player in 2019. 1.9 WAR in 2020 in just 54 games. 4.0 WAR players are good to get. Yes, he's having a tough 2021, but I'm hoping he can rebound. If he can, that gives us a lot of control of a quality SS. I love that idea.

 

I'm with you on that. When was the last time the Brewers had a SS with a 4 WAR? It was nice not holding my breath every time he makes a throw to first too.

 

2013 - Jean Segura

[Simba2020]

J.P. with the first save of his career today for the Rays.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Always leery of trading with the Rays, but, as someone who think any real value you can get for bullpen parts is usually worth it. Adames should provide some nice value.

 

The Fangraphs article sums it up nicely. Both teams fill an immediate need in a low-risk way.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yelich isn't going to be 18/19 yelich, but if he can be 280/375/500 or therabouts we'll probably be ok.

[wildcat2237]

Yelich isn't going to be 18/19 yelich, but if he can be 280/375/500 or therabouts we'll probably be ok.

 

+1. Dont need Yelich to be the MVP, but he needs to be above average.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Actually, considering this offense we need Yelich to be special. We committed a ton to him.

[CheezWizHed]

When I heard of the trade, I was pretty shocked. Ras has been rough, but high potential and JP was a huge breakout pitcher this year. But I was pleasantly surprised when I looked up Adames' numbers: Career 255/321/419/741 and OPS+ of 103. And he is 25. I was expecting another Robertson type gap filler, but he looks like more of a long term player.

 

This also got me thinking about JP.... and I wonder if there is some concern about him holding his success? It was quite a jump this year for him. But it did hurt to see a WI player get traded away...and a northerner too! Best of luck JP. Hopefully this is a win-win for both teams.

[PeaveyFury]

This also got me thinking about JP.... and I wonder if there is some concern about him holding his success?

 

I'm certain that was a key factor in moving him, much like with Phelps last year.

[Lathund]

This also got me thinking about JP.... and I wonder if there is some concern about him holding his success? It was quite a jump this year for him. But it did hurt to see a WI player get traded away...and a northerner too! Best of luck JP. Hopefully this is a win-win for both teams.

 

Depends on what kind of success. I think his stuff alone, even if he remains as wild (5 BB/9) as he is now, means he'll likely stick in a MLB bullpen for the foreseeable future. But is he a dominant late-inning guy like he looked to start the season? Having watched his every MLB outing so far, I have my doubts about that. If you split the difference between the statcast xERA and FIP/xFIP he is a mid-3s ERA type guy this year. Which is good, but not elite.

 

But I don't think it was so much about any concerns over him, just a case of needing to give up something good to get a good player in return. I think the Rays are one of the organizations least likely to overpay for "hype", but even so there would be at least some degree of "selling high" on J.P. Sometimes it doesn't click for players until relatively late, that could be the case for him, but there's also a very good chance there is not. And when someone is a relief-only prospect who spends 6+ years in the minors with good but not great numbers, that often (but not always!) tells us something. We don't know who else TB were interested in if JP was off the table, but I can certainly see why the Brewers would rather give up a bullpen piece, albeit a seemingly good one, over a higher-impact and higher-ceiling guy.

 

I agree that this is a likely win-win type of situation. Adames has put up 6-8 WAR over ~2 full seasons worth of PAs and is 25. Richards looks like a useful, if low-ceiling, pitcher. The Brewers side of it is very likely to be good. For the Rays it's almost like playing with house money. They have 3 top 100 middle infield prospects in AAA (Franco, Walls, Brujan) and another (Edwards) a bit further away. If even one of them pans out, they are as good or better than they were with Adames, and so any return they got for Adames goes straight into the win column. So even if that ends up "only" being two controllable middle relievers, the Rays are an organization who knows how to make the most out of that. The Rays long-term strategy of always infusing talent even when it means "selling" while contending is painful at the start, but do it for 5+ years and you'll always have replacements coming through.

 

This trade is a defensive upgrade at SS, and it also frees up Urias to be the injury replacement for Wong, to improve offense from 3B over Shaw, improve infield defense when needed (Urias at 3B, Shaw 1B) and to still probably get some starts at SS against lefties. So it upgrades multiple positions, and Richards makes up for some of the lost bullpen production. And having seen Adames over the last couple of days, I feel even more positive than I did when it happened. Like I didn't really worry about his 2021 numbers, but you never really know when you just have a stat line to base it on. Having seen him and his approach at the plate, I very much buy that he is the career 102 wRC+ guy and not the 80 of this year.

 

Rasmussen is the real prize TB got back though. He, too, is not a sure thing by any means. Two TJS already, some command/meatball issues, it carries risk. But also tremendous upside if he stays healthy and improves command even a little.

[Underachiever]

This also got me thinking about JP.... and I wonder if there is some concern about him holding his success? It was quite a jump this year for him. But it did hurt to see a WI player get traded away...and a northerner too! Best of luck JP. Hopefully this is a win-win for both teams.

 

Depends on what kind of success. I think his stuff alone, even if he remains as wild (5 BB/9) as he is now, means he'll likely stick in a MLB bullpen for the foreseeable future. But is he a dominant late-inning guy like he looked to start the season? Having watched his every MLB outing so far, I have my doubts about that. If you split the difference between the statcast xERA and FIP/xFIP he is a mid-3s ERA type guy this year. Which is good, but not elite.

 

But I don't think it was so much about any concerns over him, just a case of needing to give up something good to get a good player in return. I think the Rays are one of the organizations least likely to overpay for "hype", but even so there would be at least some degree of "selling high" on J.P. Sometimes it doesn't click for players until relatively late, that could be the case for him, but there's also a very good chance there is not. And when someone is a relief-only prospect who spends 6+ years in the minors with good but not great numbers, that often (but not always!) tells us something. We don't know who else TB were interested in if JP was off the table, but I can certainly see why the Brewers would rather give up a bullpen piece, albeit a seemingly good one, over a higher-impact and higher-ceiling guy.

 

I agree that this is a likely win-win type of situation. Adames has put up 6-8 WAR over ~2 full seasons worth of PAs and is 25. Richards looks like a useful, if low-ceiling, pitcher. The Brewers side of it is very likely to be good. For the Rays it's almost like playing with house money. They have 3 top 100 middle infield prospects in AAA (Franco, Walls, Brujan) and another (Edwards) a bit further away. If even one of them pans out, they are as good or better than they were with Adames, and so any return they got for Adames goes straight into the win column. So even if that ends up "only" being two controllable middle relievers, the Rays are an organization who knows how to make the most out of that. The Rays long-term strategy of always infusing talent even when it means "selling" while contending is painful at the start, but do it for 5+ years and you'll always have replacements coming through.

 

This trade is a defensive upgrade at SS, and it also frees up Urias to be the injury replacement for Wong, to improve offense from 3B over Shaw, improve infield defense when needed (Urias at 3B, Shaw 1B) and to still probably get some starts at SS against lefties. So it upgrades multiple positions, and Richards makes up for some of the lost bullpen production. And having seen Adames over the last couple of days, I feel even more positive than I did when it happened. Like I didn't really worry about his 2021 numbers, but you never really know when you just have a stat line to base it on. Having seen him and his approach at the plate, I very much buy that he is the career 102 wRC+ guy and not the 80 of this year.

 

Rasmussen is the real prize TB got back though. He, too, is not a sure thing by any means. Two TJS already, some command/meatball issues, it carries risk. But also tremendous upside if he stays healthy and improves command even a little.

It's really easy to like the Rays and their organization. Since I got the package that lets me watch every MLB game this year, I have watched at least six of the their games, and combined with the WS last year, they are becoming my second team. I really agree with the "house money" aspect of the quoted post above. I am also excited about Adames on the Brewers. Hope both teams win the trade.

[monty57]

I understand why people link this deal to the Grisham deal, and how this deal makes the Urias/Grisham deal look even worse. However, this is a separate deal, and it really looks like we're getting the better end of the deal.

 

Adames was a top prospect, and has transitioned to being a good MLB player. He is above average both offensively and defensively over his career. Rasmussen is a decent prospect with a live arm. He is not near the prospect that Adames was, and in his brief stint in the majors has not been good. That's not saying he can't become a good MLB reliever, but the odds that he becomes "a right-handed Hader" are pretty optimistic. He doesn't have good command, and his stuff isn't nearly as good as Hader. Feyereisen had a hot start to the year, but everyone is capable of good stretches. Nothing in his career shows that he's going to be a dominant reliever.

 

I wish the best for both of these guys, but neither one looks like they will be a dominant reliever, which is what it would take to make up for one average year of what Adames has already done at the MLB level. Throw in that Richards looks to be an average-ish MLB reliever who can help alleviate the loss of the two relievers we sent over, and I think the Brewers did pretty well in this trade. It looks to me like the Rays had excess depth at the shortstop position and were looking to trade away the guy with the least team control in order to make room for the MLB-ready prospect, and the Brewers are the beneficiaries of this situation.

[Eye Black]

Both Keith Law (The Athletic) and Ginny Searle (Baseball Prospectus) wrote articles about the trade (subscription required)...

 

Law: Willy Adames wends his way to Wisconsin, with Taylor Walls recalled, but whither Wander Franco? (The Athletic)

 

Transaction Analysis: Brewers Add Adames, A Real Shortstop (Baseball Prospectus)

[Eye Black]

It’s been mentioned previously in this thread, but the home/road splits for Willy Adames in Tampa were really stark...

 

I looked this up, and apparently it was something he attributed to not being able to see the ball very well at the Trop. He even tried wearing nonprescription glasses to help with the issue, here’s an article from the Tampa Bay Times:

 

Rays' Willy Adames trying glasses to boost home numbers

 

Here are some of Adames’ quotes from the article:

 

"I’ve been having a hard time picking up the ball the last two series,” said Adames, 25, who wasn’t in the lineup for Friday’s game against the Red Sox. "I could barely see the ball. I don’t know if it’s the air conditioning, the lights, I don’t know.

 

“I’m just trying to figure out something to help me pick up the ball a little earlier. I’m just trying to figure out something so I can help the team a little bit more.”

 

“You can see the difference in numbers,” he said. “Since the beginning of last year, I was having trouble, I guess. Every time we come from the road, it’s different in here. I don’t want to make an excuse of that. I’ve just been struggling here.”

 

“It’s hard. Every time I come from the road and do something (well), I get here and I can’t help the team.”

[Sixtofan]

It’s a little weird that he doesn’t want to see an eye doctor and would rather just figure it out himself. Could be some form of slight color blindness etc that could be easily corrected with specifically tinted lenses.

[CheezWizHed]

That is really odd... Especially since the away numbers aren't even close to his MiLB numbers (774 OPS, 802 max OPS in a season).

[wallus]

A good young fielding shortstop that might have an over .800 OPS is pretty good, no?

 

I hope this trade works out well for both teams.

[KeithStone53151]

A good young fielding shortstop that might have an over .800 OPS is pretty good, no?

 

I hope this trade works out well for both teams.

 

Fair enough. I hope Rasmussen and JP do well, but Adames has a Yelich-esque breakout that makes this trade look like an absolute steal...

[JohnBriggs12]

If you've ever been to the Trop, you can understand the visibility issues there. It was way back in 2004 that I was there, but I found the place dark and dreary. It's unlike any park in baseball.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Kind of funny given Freddie Freeman's comments a while back about MP being something like a "poorly lit Little League field" or whatever.

 

Hope Adames keeps it up. He's off to nice start as a Brewer on all sides of the ball and seems to have also brought some nice energy.

[monty57]

Looking at the stats, Urias hasn't been horrible (.219 AVG / .325 OBP / .391 SLG / .715 OPS). It's weighted with walks, but walks aren't bad... they're certainly better than outs. Meanwhile Shaw (.199 / .289 / .349 / .638) and Vogelbach (.213 / .331 / .340 / .670) have gotten way too many PAs.

 

With the Brewers making this trade and recalling Hiura, the biggest benefit could be that Shaw and Vogelbach spend a lot more time on the bench. Hiura is still a question mark, but if he can hit, if Adames just does what he's done since becoming a major leaguer, and if Urias gets the rest of the PAs, we could have a significant upgrade in our offense just by giving PAs to guys who don't suck.

 

Yelich taking PAs away from Cain/Bradley should help out a lot as well.

[Austin Tatious]

Good post, Monty. Shaw should be the backup 1b/3b. He looks like a slug out there. Urias should be playing well over half the time at third, so long as his defense is adequate over there. His lack of range is less of a problem at third. Start him against all lefties and many righties too, except where the metrics maybe show something useful about Shaw against a particular righty, or if Shaw gets on a brief roll.

 

What a signing JBJ was. Consider putting him in the ninth spot and bat the pitcher eighth. He’s been more comfortable in his career in that ninth spot. After the first time through the order, he becomes potentially an extra base runner as you get into early part of the order.

[monty57]

Good post, Monty. Shaw should be the backup 1b/3b. He looks like a slug out there. Urias should be playing well over half the time at third, so long as his defense is adequate over there. His lack of range is less of a problem at third. Start him against all lefties and many righties too, except where the metrics maybe show something useful about Shaw against a particular righty, or if Shaw gets on a brief roll.

 

What a signing JBJ was. Consider putting him in the ninth spot and bat the pitcher eighth. He’s been more comfortable in his career in that ninth spot. After the first time through the order, he becomes potentially an extra base runner as you get into early part of the order.

 

JBJ has been bad, but at least he has some track record to bank on... he should "revert to the mean" and get better. It may not happen, but there's reason to believe it could. That said, he and Cain can split time, with Yelich and Garcia playing every day. Other than late inning defensive sets, I hope we don't see a lot of days with both Cain and Bradley on the field at the same time.

 

Other than hopes and prayers, I don't see a lot that makes me believe that Shaw or Vogelbach will suddenly become good. Both have potential to have a hot streak here or there, but neither is going to become a good player over a period of time. At least Shaw can provide some value defensively. Assuming Hiura sticks with the MLB club, I don't really see a need for Vogelbach to remain a Brewer much longer.