I think it's time to admit it!

[sveumrules]

I was thinking back to the 2019 opening rotation, which included these three. Stearns and Counsell bet on the full youth movement, not re-signing Miley or getting another free agent pitcher and throwing all three into the rotation. Granted, there was veteran depth all around them (or brought back later, in Gio Gonzalez's case). But the plan blew up quickly. Turns out they may have been a bit early, but they weren't so far off with their evaluation. A good lesson to have patience and not to give up on young pitching talent.

 

Here's the 2019 pitching thread, which has a lot of discussion on the topic...

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=38008&hilit=2019+pitching

 

Without reading through all seventy five pages, I feel like I remember a number of posters thinking the move was too aggressive & it would torpedo our 2019 contention chances & possibly the future development of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta, neither of which has come to fruition.

 

I also feel like there was quite a bit of "Fire Hook" chatter early in the 2019 season, which also would have probably been a bad idea with the benefit of a couple years hindsight.

 

The impact of losing Derek Johnson seems to have been greatly overstated by some.

[MrTPlush]

I was thinking back to the 2019 opening rotation, which included these three. Stearns and Counsell bet on the full youth movement, not re-signing Miley or getting another free agent pitcher and throwing all three into the rotation. Granted, there was veteran depth all around them (or brought back later, in Gio Gonzalez's case). But the plan blew up quickly. Turns out they may have been a bit early, but they weren't so far off with their evaluation. A good lesson to have patience and not to give up on young pitching talent.

 

Here's the 2019 pitching thread, which has a lot of discussion on the topic...

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=38008&hilit=2019+pitching

 

Without reading through all seventy five pages, I feel like I remember a number of posters thinking the move was too aggressive & it would torpedo our 2019 contention chances & possibly the future development of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta, neither of which has come to fruition.

I also feel like there was quite a bit of "Fire Hook" chatter early in the 2019 season, which also would have probably been a bad idea with the benefit of a couple years hindsight.

 

The impact of losing Derek Johnson seems to have been greatly overstated by some.

 

While we did contend (and make the postseason) the trio did fail overall. Brandon Woodruff was the only success that year and he was the most obvious to give a rotation spot to. Freddy Peralta was horrible as a starter and then excelled when he was moved the the bullpen (a place many thought he should have been to start). Corbin Burnes was a colossal failure that year.

 

To me I think the worries many had were confirmed in 2019 and it arguably did hold that team back a bit. Considering they lost the division by two games it could have been dramatically different of an ending had we not started those guys and found more relevant guys to pitch. Of course I don't recall our record in their 12 starts they combined for and our emergency scrapheap pitchers we trotted out (Lyles/Gio) had ERAs you would expect from Kershaw/Scherzer so I am not sure Burnes/Peralta never starting would have caused us to fair any better in the standings.

 

Of course it is working out long term, which is probably what matters.

[Jopal78]

 

I think the Brewers missed their chance at taking a step back and are now basically forced to patch it all together with having very little in the minors to pull off a big trade to upgrade the MLB roster while having no hitting on the horizon to help out either. Plus the money on the big league roster is being spent on guys that are basically slightly below average offensively at this point.

 

Patch what together exactly? It’s puzzling to me that posters keep harping on Avi Garcia and JBJ as big mistakes by the front office. Given what the going rate is the last couple of season for premium free agents, these guys are both on cut-rate deals. No doubt Bradley has dug himself a bit of a hole, but even leaving out his salad days, here’s a guy who has hit .240/.324/.414 since opening day 2017. Does anyone truly believe he’s going to finish as a .515 OPS player or even a .615 OPS player?

 

Avi Garcia didn’t hit last year but then again half the league didn’t. This year he’s above his career triple slash line, and is earning every penny of his contract.

 

If Yelich wouldn’t have missed almost the entire year so far, and Hiura would’ve played as they had anticipated they’d probably be running away with their division given their pitching so far. Any team that loses their 3 and 4 hitters will necessarily have a “patched together feel” but it doesn’t make it so. Would the Cardinals lineup scare anyone without Arendo and Goldschmidt, the Cubs without Bryant and Rizzo, the Padres without Tatis and Machado, the Braves without Acuna and Freeman

[sixtolezcano16]

Sano is not an upgrade even from Hiura.

 

Three slash lines and tell me which one would you want to be playing 1B:

 

.135 / .297 / .257

.152 / .247 / .266

.223 / .357 / .396

 

Cron from the Rockies would be a good pickup. Kepler I don't think would be made available and Culberson is just a guy on a hot streak not sure I would even give anything of value for him.

 

Of the players that you listed Cron would be the only player that would bring a positive to the offense. Story is going to cost way too much and I would rather trade for someone who has more than a half season of control and then they will be gone. Someone like Trea Turner would be the ideal player to trade for but I doubt he will be made available.

 

Improvements to the offense would probably have to come at 1B and 3B. One is probably just a platoon at 1B and the other a starter at 3B. If the Brewers could some how swing a trade with the Cubs for Bryant that would be the biggest move the Brewers could do to improve 3B offensively and defensively. At 1B the best option would be Cron or Aguilar. Both shouldn't cost all that much in terms of prospects.

 

The point I was attempting to make was the Brewers should do everything in their power to obtain some bats, considering the current state of their offense. This might be one of the few opportunities for them to make some noise in the playoffs. I threw out a few names as possible targets as suggestions.

 

What I find interesting is your comment on Miguel Sano. Yes, he is having an equally disappointing season as Hiura. However, he has had OPS's of 0.923 and 0.859 in 2019 and 2017 respectively. Sure he's overweight and injury prone, but that might prove he is obtainable.

 

I do find it interesting that you brought up Kris Bryant's name. How is he any different from Story ("cost way too much" and is only available for "half a season of control") plus the fact that he plays in the same division as the Brewers.

[monty57]

The point I was attempting to make was the Brewers should do everything in their power to obtain some bats, considering the current state of their offense.

 

I guess I'd question the "everything in their power" part of your comment. I really don't want to see them trade away the few prospects they have for a slightly higher chance to win this year. The Brewers have talent, and have a good shot at the playoffs this year, but who could they realistically get that would turn them into a World Series favorite in a league that has the Dodgers and Padres? If there is a player that could do that, what would it cost to get them?

 

I'm all for looking for upgrades where we can get them, but I don't think the Brewers have the resources (in money or prospects) to make a "game changing" type of deal. Even if they did, I don't think it would be worth it for them to completely drain the farm or in any way put themselves in a position that a long rebuild would be necessary.

 

It wouldn't seem that hard to find a "rental" at a corner IF spot to upgrade there, but then again, that was the biggest hole to fill this offseason and it's still gaping. We've struggled through a mountain of injuries this season, have had one of our best hitters forget how to hit, and have just generally seen a lot of things go wrong, and we're two games back in the division with a winning record.

 

Our biggest "pickup" this year will probably come from our guys getting healthy. Beyond that, I don't expect any really big moves.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Nats are currently 16-20 and tied for last in the East. They have two veterans the Brewers should look at. Starlin Castro is hitting .368 against LHP and is making $7 million this year. Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .333 vs. LH pitching and is playing on a $1 million dollar deal. Now I know Zimmerman likely would nix a deal wanting to play his entire career with the Nats but maybe he'll welcome a shot at another ring. You can at least ask.

[TURBO]

What makes anyone think the Nats will be in sell mode. Our record isn't much better than theirs.

[sveumrules]

What makes anyone think the Nats will be in sell mode. Our record isn't much better than theirs.

 

Their projected true talent level is lower than ours & their division is tougher, which is why their current projected win totals/playoff odds come in at 79 wins/13.7% (FanGraphs), 81 wins/15.2% (PECOTA) & 80 wins/24% (538).

 

Meanwhile the Brewers projected win totals/playoff odds are currently at 85 wins/44% (538), 85 wins/52% (FanGraphs) & 88 wins/66.5% (PECOTA).

 

A lot can happen twixt now & July, but as of right now the Nats' playoff prospects are quite a bit worse than ours, despite the extra 80 million in payroll.

[SRB]

2020-2021 FIP Leaders (>60.0 IP)

 

 

[markedman5]

The Nats are currently 16-20 and tied for last in the East. They have two veterans the Brewers should look at. Starlin Castro is hitting .368 against LHP and is making $7 million this year. Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .333 vs. LH pitching and is playing on a $1 million dollar deal. Now I know Zimmerman likely would nix a deal wanting to play his entire career with the Nats but maybe he'll welcome a shot at another ring. You can at least ask.

 

So the Nats are 3 games out of first place in the East……and the Brewers are 2 games out in the central…….Zimmerman isn’t ring chasing with the Brewers…..and I doubt the.

Nats are giving up on the season in mid May.

 

People need to relax……at least until we get closer to the trade deadline and you know who is available and if the Brewers should be buyers or sellers.

[xisxisxis]

With last year and having 3 young pitchers who haven't approached their maximum innings yet it may be hard to have a deep push into the playoffs relying on them. The Brewers are already planning on adding a 6th starter to cut down on their innings. Even adding a 6th starter at this point still means they will be at career highs (knock on wood) by the end of the year or near their max for the year. This may not be the year to make a lot of rash moves to win-it-all when you could be doing harm to those 3 very important arms. This team is hanging around 500 even with the abysmal defense. No problem waiting closer to the trade deadline to see what needs to be added if any real bargain materializes. The worst outcome would be to bet the farm, run these guys into the ground leading to injury issues down the line and MISS the World Series. Sure they could carry the team, but there are many indicators that they may not have the gas to make it all the way to the end without adding a lot of injury risk. We have these guys for 3 more years and if they continue to perform like this then Sterns needs to put together a plan for those years to get enough offense to ride them to 3 years of deep playoff runs. If Huira can't figure it out and/or Yelich can't then that's an uphill job for Sterns. IMHO the timing isn't right to go all-in this year, while the next 3 years are the window. In the playoffs most teams cut their rotation and the brewers offense won't have 5th or 6th starters to kick around and make their offense look major league. And for those who think it's worth the gamble with the current offense, no team has ever won a game if they haven't scored.

[adambr2]

 

I think the Brewers missed their chance at taking a step back and are now basically forced to patch it all together with having very little in the minors to pull off a big trade to upgrade the MLB roster while having no hitting on the horizon to help out either. Plus the money on the big league roster is being spent on guys that are basically slightly below average offensively at this point.

 

Patch what together exactly? It’s puzzling to me that posters keep harping on Avi Garcia and JBJ as big mistakes by the front office. Given what the going rate is the last couple of season for premium free agents, these guys are both on cut-rate deals. No doubt Bradley has dug himself a bit of a hole, but even leaving out his salad days, here’s a guy who has hit .240/.324/.414 since opening day 2017. Does anyone truly believe he’s going to finish as a .515 OPS player or even a .615 OPS player?

 

Avi Garcia didn’t hit last year but then again half the league didn’t. This year he’s above his career triple slash line, and is earning every penny of his contract.

 

If Yelich wouldn’t have missed almost the entire year so far, and Hiura would’ve played as they had anticipated they’d probably be running away with their division given their pitching so far. Any team that loses their 3 and 4 hitters will necessarily have a “patched together feel” but it doesn’t make it so. Would the Cardinals lineup scare anyone without Arendo and Goldschmidt, the Cubs without Bryant and Rizzo, the Padres without Tatis and Machado, the Braves without Acuna and Freeman

 

Well, they're not premium free agents. They didn't get premium free agency deals because no GM out of 30 viewed them as premium free agents.

 

Avi has been ok. His contract has been ok. Not great. But ok.

 

I don't know how anyone can say Bradley's doesn't look terrible right now especially with him now playing himself into a 2nd year. I wouldn't put him at .515 to finish the year, but an aging formerly productive player falling off a cliff like Shaw did in '19 is not unprecedented.

 

I wouldn't take the over on .650 for his season OPS which would be a disappointment coming into the year.

[adambr2]

We have 3 guys who have TOR stuff!

 

I won't name names, I'm all about not creating a jinx, but damn, these guys look for real.

 

We have to grab bats and spend some money in the off season.

 

Wasting these guys in their prime would be a crying shame.

 

BATS!

 

The "but" on Freddy has always been efficiency. His first 4 starts this year he averaged 17.6 pitches per inning. His last 4 starts have been just over 15 pitches per inning.

 

If he can continue with that efficiency he definitely belongs in the grouping with Woodruff and Burnes.

[SoCalBrewfan]

It's fun to think about having all the Zimmermen on the roster this year, but I guess Washington beat us to that particular achievement.