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What Type of Brewers Team Will Win a World Series?


What is more likely to win the Brewers a World Series?

 

The 2021 version of the Milwaukee Brewers, where they have three SP pitching like Aces, multiple gold gloves on the field but have difficulty scoring.

 

or

 

The 2011 version of the Milwaukee Brewers, where they have sluggers like that can score at will, but are butchers in the field and rely on an average rotation who can and will give back the lead created by the offense.

 

I am not asking you to compare 2021 to 2011 specifically (e.g. Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta > Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum). Nor am I asking you what team will have more wins. I am asking what is the more likely combination to end the Brewers World Series drought.

 

I know 2011 was more fun to root for so far than 2021.

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Neither.

 

Which is easy because one didn't even make the world series and the other can't even post a positive run differential. The combination of 2011 though. This current team wouldn't even make the postseason and maybe not even a .500 record over 162 games.

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If it's a binary choice (I can't pick "other"), it would be this year's version. With a pitching staff that can routinely limit other teams to three runs or fewer, I feel like it's more likely the hitters can get hot or simply scratch across a few runs to win games.

 

At the same time, I think this type of team is better suited for the playoffs, so getting there could be a problem.

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2011 Team

 

Runs against: 3.9

Runs for: 4.5

 

2021 Team

 

Runs against: 4.0

Runs for:3.8

 

So the 2021 is worse both hitting and pitching. This doesn't even account that offense was higher back then and that pitching staff was still better than the one we have had so far in 2021. So while you knock on the 2011 pitching just remember, the 2011 gave up less runs on average.

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The 2011 Brewers with 5th in the NL in runs allowed and 6th in runs scored.

 

They were balanced, not just hitters. I would take that over this pitching with an offense that is among baseball's worst.

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The Brewers winning a World Series does not computer. However I think the 2021 team has the better chance as long as they can replace Pablo Reyes and Dan Vogelbach on the roster with 1982 Robin Yount and Cecil Cooper.
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If the Brewers would have acquired Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado instead of the Cardinals (when both were made available I was foolishly hoping...) I’d feel a lot better about this team and would think they’d have a serious chance to make a run for a World Series.
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The 2011 team had a much more complete roster.

 

That said, the pitching was on fumes in October, and they still had to play Mark Kotsay in CF.

 

I'll go with the same answer as dlk. 2011 was a better team overall. 2021 has a better shot at a WS if they make the playoffs.

 

Even a 1-game WC. Imagine going Burnes-Woody-Hader, with Williams and Freddy available in support. In a do-or-die situation, all hands on deck, it's pretty easy to see this crew needing just a run or two to win.

 

Put it like this: If I had to pick facing the 2011 Brewers or the 2021 Brewers in a postseason series, I'd rather play the 2011 version. Gallardo and Greinke were both excellent, but does any other pitcher on that staff scare you?

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In a vacuum, I'd say 2021.

 

Why?

 

Let's go back to the 2014-2015 Royals. AL Pennant and World Series title with a similar setup. Defense and a dominating bullpen were just enough that year. The big difference: They didn't have a Woodruff-Burnes-Peralta trio in their rotation.

 

That being said, it's not a vacuum. It really depends on the teams that the Brewers will face in the playoffs/World Series.

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The 2011 Brewers with 5th in the NL in runs allowed and 6th in runs scored.

 

They were balanced, not just hitters. I would take that over this pitching with an offense that is among baseball's worst.

 

The 2011 Brewers also got off to a 13-19 start

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If the Brewers play in a World Series over the next few years it seems highly likely it’s going to have to be with an average offense and lights out pitching in both the rotation and bullpen. For the longer term I think the goal would be to find more balance between the two, but having dominant pitching probably gives you a slight advantage over counting on elite hitting in a playoff format.

 

I mentioned this in the off-season, but there have been three teams since 2010 that have been slightly below league average in offensive runs scored and still played in the World Series, the 2010 Giants, 2014 Royals, and 2015 Mets. There have been two times since 2010 where both World Series participants finished outside the top ten in runs scored, the first was 2012 World Series with the Giants (#12) and Tigers (#11), the same year the Brewers finished 3rd in MLB in runs scored. The other was the 2014 World Series with the Giants (#12) and Royals (#14). In most years the teams that win the World Series are in the top 10 in runs scored, as you’d expect.

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I think the best way to win in the playoffs is having 3 great SP and a good, deep bullpen. Bottom 5 offense will not get you a WS though.
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In a lot of ways, this team reminds me of a Bizarro 2009 Brewers. That team could score at will but couldn't pitch to save their life. Look at 4/5 of the rotation:

 

-34 starts from Braden Looper (5.22 ERA)

-30 starts from Jeff Suppan (5.29 ERA)

-27 starts from Manny Parra (6.26 ERA)

-21 starts from Dave Bush (6.38 ERA)

 

I will say though, I am not sure what is more frustrating. Watching this version of the Brewers losing games where the pitching staff gives up 3 runs and lose 3-1 or watching the 2009 Brewers score 6 runs and lose 8-6.

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In a lot of ways, this team reminds me of a Bizarro 2009 Brewers. That team could score at will but couldn't pitch to save their life. Look at 4/5 of the rotation:

 

-34 starts from Braden Looper (5.22 ERA)

-30 starts from Jeff Suppan (5.29 ERA)

-27 starts from Manny Parra (6.26 ERA)

-21 starts from Dave Bush (6.38 ERA)

 

I will say though, I am not sure what is more frustrating. Watching this version of the Brewers losing games where the pitching staff gives up 3 runs and lose 3-1 or watching the 2009 Brewers score 6 runs and lose 8-6.

 

While the result is disappointing for both, having no offense is much worse in my opinion as the games are extremely boring and once the Brewers give up one or two runs the game is essentially over. At least with the 2009 team there was some excitement and you never knew if they’d come back and score a few runs to win the game late.

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Braden Looper starts were amazing! You knew the Brewers were about to win a high scoring shoot-out.

 

This team is just depressing. I feel like I have to prepare flowers and condolences to the starting pitcher for us because one run is killer.

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