Stearns’ Offensive Talent Evaluation

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The farm system has just not produced any impact position players and that is a problem that has been going on for years. Hiura was the only opening day starter unless you count Cain who was originally drafted by the Brewers but signed as a free agent. Small market teams need to produce home grown talent and we have just done a very poor job of drafting and developing everyday players that play big roles with the team.

 

When you can't develop young players who produce on cheap contracts guys like Garcia and Bradley are signed for well more than they are worth. The team didn't hit at all last season and Stearns did nothing to address these issues. It was fair to expect Yelich to produce but besides him we have no big time bats.

 

The team is just starting to turn it around in the farm system after those terrible Ray Montgomery years. Slow build, but hopefully steady improvement.

 

Who besides hopefully Mitchell looks like a potential plus bat.

 

Cantrelle certainly looks good so far, and has a nice projection. Warren projects to have a nice bat. Not so sure on Zamora and Weimer, but we'll see. Zamora was billed as a "hit for average" type, and Weimer has big power. Thomas Dillard's bat looks legit. Turang, Hedbert Perez, Feliciano and Carlos Rodriguez all look like legit prospect bats.

[wntrtxn21]

I don't agree that the García signing was a disaster. First of all it's fair to throw out the 2020 stats - too many good players played poorly, be it because of pandemic anxiety, no fans, no video in the dugout, (plus for the Brewers, a leader like Cain opting out), whatever. So García played poorly last year, but do did Yelich, Narvaez and many others. Avi hit .500 on the road trip (10 for 20) and is now OPSing .756, owing according to him to changing his stance. Narvaez version 2021 is exceeding anyone's highest offensive expecations. Shaw is struggling to OPS .700 and seems to be fading but has been at the center of several huge wins. And some of the others mentioned aren't exactly burning it up this year - Cooper, as Jopal pointed out; also Dubon whose OBP is .243 this year and is OPSing .502 - his career ops is below .700, so, not much different from Arcia.

 

I also think the Padres trade is too early to evaluate. Urias seems to be a much better hitter than Arcia though Lando has 5 homers in 27 ABs in AAA Gwinett right now (sss OPS of 1.370), so maybe they fixed something.

 

Where I agree with RollieTime is with the Brewers giving up too soon on guys. Khris Davis and Aguilar especially, with no productive return, but even guys like Brad Miller were jettisoned quickly - we could use his bat about now. (OK, no big deal about Brad Miller.) Cooper I'm not so worried about. I also agree on whiffing with the draft. Other than Mitchell, I don't see much down there, though it's too early to say on the last couple of drafts. Though I still have hope on a couple of the scrap heap pickups, including Derek Fisher and Zach Green. McKinney seems to have run his course.

 

The Brewers may have let a couple of decent players go before they should have, but Davis was not one of them. Davis needed to rainbow a throw into the SS from shallow LF. He had arguably, the weakest outfield arm in baseball history and it cost the Brewers far too many times. He was then and is now a DH, period. I certainly agree about Aguilar, but Davis was no loss.

[liveforoctober]

I'm very curious how everyone here thinks the Brewers' draft process goes? I do get that Stearns is the GM and the buck stops with him, etc but if we are not happy with the Brewers' drafting, shouldn't we be upset with our scouting team and Stearns staff?

[MrTPlush]

I'm very curious how everyone here thinks the Brewers' draft process goes? I do get that Stearns is the GM and the buck stops with him, etc but if we are not happy with the Brewers' drafting, shouldn't we be upset with our scouting team and Stearns staff?

 

Stearns hired them (or didn’t fire/replace them), he is the leader. Of course how long before you blame a GM for that? It takes half a decade or more to even know how a draft class did. So if you give him a 3 year buffer to figure out how to draft and create a system you are up to 8 or so years before you really can critique a guys drafting at the GM level.

 

I don’t know I am anywhere close to feeling like I should judge Stearns drafting ability.

[PeaveyFury]

I feel like the history of the Brewer org at least is that the scouting director gets most of the credit when drafts go well, and the GM gets most of the blame when they don't, regardless of who actually calls the shots on draft day.

[jonescm128]

The farm system has just not produced any impact position players and that is a problem that has been going on for years. Hiura was the only opening day starter unless you count Cain who was originally drafted by the Brewers but signed as a free agent. Small market teams need to produce home grown talent and we have just done a very poor job of drafting and developing everyday players that play big roles with the team.

 

When you can't develop young players who produce on cheap contracts guys like Garcia and Bradley are signed for well more than they are worth. The team didn't hit at all last season and Stearns did nothing to address these issues. It was fair to expect Yelich to produce but besides him we have no big time bats.

 

The team is just starting to turn it around in the farm system after those terrible Ray Montgomery years. Slow build, but hopefully steady improvement.

 

Who besides hopefully Mitchell looks like a potential plus bat.

 

I think Turang could be this guy. His contact skills and ability to get on base are extraordinary for how young he is and they have been since he started in the system. Guys take a while to develop but with a strong foundation in plate discipline and ability to make contact, he is set up for success. Really looking forward to watching him continue to develop.

[monty57]

We have a consistently good team even if it isn't perfect, just enjoy it.

 

Yeah, most of my life has been spent wondering if we had anyone good enough to trade away at the deadline, and wondering when (if ever) we'd finally see another Brewer team with a record over .500.

 

It's nice to finally be able to expect playoffs every year, but there's always reasons to complain. We're a small revenue team, so there are always going to be holes. I'm glad that our strengths outweigh our weaknesses, so we're winning more than we're losing.

 

I think that this offseason, Stearns was looking for a team with a better approach at the plate. I hope that eventually plays out, as watching guys strike out isn't all that fun, but we won't know until the M*A*S*H unit that is the Brewers gets healthy. That they've been able to win in spite of all the injuries is kind of amazing.

[jonescm128]

We have a consistently good team even if it isn't perfect, just enjoy it.

 

Yeah, most of my life has been spent wondering if we had anyone good enough to trade away at the deadline, and wondering when (if ever) we'd finally see another Brewer team with a record over .500.

 

It's nice to finally be able to expect playoffs every year, but there's always reasons to complain. We're a small revenue team, so there are always going to be holes. I'm glad that our strengths outweigh our weaknesses, so we're winning more than we're losing.

 

I think that this offseason, Stearns was looking for a team with a better approach at the plate. I hope that eventually plays out, as watching guys strike out isn't all that fun, but we won't know until the M*A*S*H unit that is the Brewers gets healthy. That they've been able to win in spite of all the injuries is kind of amazing.

 

Granted, it isn't just the Brewers. League wide BA is .234 this year, down from .245 last year and .252 the year before. Lowest in the history of baseball. Also the highest K rate in the history of the league this year. But this all seems pretty obvious as pitchers velocity and spin rate is higher than ever.

[Jopal78]

I feel like the history of the Brewer org at least is that the scouting director gets most of the credit when drafts go well, and the GM gets most of the blame when they don't, regardless of who actually calls the shots on draft day.

 

...and even then a team's success in the amateur draft can look very different in the long run than the short run. Look no further than Doug Melvin. After he and his cohorts drafted the core that made the the playoffs in 2008 and again in 2011 he whiffed big time on almost all of his first round picks after 2008 with most not even seeing time in the major leagues (Eric Arnett, Kentrail Davis, Kyle Heckathorn, Dylan Covey, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley, Clint Coulter, Victor Roache, Kodi Medeiros, and Jake Gatewood).

 

Yet a half decade since he was in charge of the Brewers his post 2008 draft record doesn't look as bad having found major league regulars: Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Mitch Haniger, Brent Suter, Devin Williams, Trent Grisham and a top of the rotation starter in Woodruff plus a smattering of role players: Garrett Cooper, Taylor Williams, Jorge Lopez, Nick Ramirez and Jacob Barnes amongst others.

 

It's hard making a call on the current front office's amateur drafting. For example, even if they missed on Corey Ray at #5 overall, they got Corbin Burnes in the same draft and anytime you get a #1 starter in the draft, I think you have to call that a successful draft.

[monty57]

Granted, it isn't just the Brewers. League wide BA is .234 this year, down from .245 last year and .252 the year before. Lowest in the history of baseball. Also the highest K rate in the history of the league this year. But this all seems pretty obvious as pitchers velocity and spin rate is higher than ever.

 

Incentivize players to change their swing to hit more home runs, with K's being a necessary result, and then introduce a "dead ball" so that many of those home runs turn into easy fly outs. The result is the 2021 baseball season. How many no-hitters will we see?

 

I think Stearns was trying to be ahead of the curve by looking for high-OBP / contact hitters. They should be hurt much less by a dead ball than the "launch angle" guys will be. Pair that with good pitching and defense, and you can win on a low budget. Of course, they don't help anything when they're watching the games while riding out an IL stint.

[jerichoholicninja]

Brewers rank in runs per game the last 6 years

2021 - 26

2020 - 27

2019 - 17

2018 - 12

2017 - 21

2016 - 25

 

I think it is more than fair to question Stearns ability to build an offense. Outside of Yelich, what has he really done to help the offense? Grandal was great for the one year he was here and there's been a couple lightning in a bottle moments like Gyorko but otherwise every offseason he acquires handfuls of the same light hitting utility player who unfortunately wind up getting massive amounts of AB's.

[MrTPlush]

A huge problem is total lack of long term performers.

 

3+ year performers:

Christian Yelich

Eric Thames

Ryan Braun

 

2+ Year Performers:

Travis Shaw

Domingo Santana

 

 

Braun was here before Stearns even arrived, Thames has been gone for multiple years now, Shaw hasn't been good since 2018, and one of Santana's good seasons was only 77 games long.

 

Stearns has got to stop having most of the offense a yearly revolving door.

[pacopete4]

Brewers rank in runs per game the last 6 years

2021 - 26 (12th in NL)

2020 - 27 (13th in NL)

2019 - 17 (9th in NL)

2018 - 12 (7th in NL)

2017 - 21 (11th in NL)

2016 - 25 (11th in NL)

 

I never like going full MLB rankings when you have a DH in one league and not in the other. Not that it changes too much but it is nice to have that perspective.

[Hopper]

Brewers rank in runs per game the last 6 years

2021 - 26 (12th in NL)

2020 - 27 (13th in NL)

2019 - 17 (9th in NL)

2018 - 12 (7th in NL)

2017 - 21 (11th in NL)

2016 - 25 (11th in NL)

 

I never like going full MLB rankings when you have a DH in one league and not in the other. Not that it changes too much but it is nice to have that perspective.

 

True, but even when looking at NL only stats, still pretty poor.

[RightFieldCoder]

A huge problem is total lack of long term performers.

 

3+ year performers:

Christian Yelich

Eric Thames

Ryan Braun

 

2+ Year Performers:

Travis Shaw

Domingo Santana

 

 

Braun was here before Stearns even arrived, Thames has been gone for multiple years now, Shaw hasn't been good since 2018, and one of Santana's good seasons was only 77 games long.

 

Stearns has got to stop having most of the offense a yearly revolving door.

To be fair there haven't been any 3+ year bad contract signings. He sometimes gambles on players but never gives them long term contracts we regret. Something Melvin had to do with pitchers because he couldn't grow enough young talent on that side of the ball.

[Boomer5]

A huge problem is total lack of long term performers.

 

3+ year performers:

Christian Yelich

Eric Thames

Ryan Braun

 

2+ Year Performers:

Travis Shaw

Domingo Santana

 

 

Braun was here before Stearns even arrived, Thames has been gone for multiple years now, Shaw hasn't been good since 2018, and one of Santana's good seasons was only 77 games long.

 

Stearns has got to stop having most of the offense a yearly revolving door.

 

Unfortunately, thats what happens when you dumpster dive every year to fill key positions. The Brewers aren’t going to be in the top line FA market. Arguably no team should but that’s another subject.

 

It all comes down to not drafting/developing well because we can’t fill these holes internally and no one is giving us a Trout in exchange for their pick of a bottom 5 ranked farm system.

 

He tried to pick up a long time piece in the Urias deal, he just didn’t understand what he was getting and what he was giving up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He tried to pick up a long time piece in the Urias deal, he just didn’t understand what he was getting and what he was giving up.

 

Luis Urias is 23 years old, and has 466 MLB ABs to his name ... so I would argue that Stearns still doesn't know what he's getting. No one does.

[MrTPlush]

A huge problem is total lack of long term performers.

 

3+ year performers:

Christian Yelich

Eric Thames

Ryan Braun

 

2+ Year Performers:

Travis Shaw

Domingo Santana

 

 

Braun was here before Stearns even arrived, Thames has been gone for multiple years now, Shaw hasn't been good since 2018, and one of Santana's good seasons was only 77 games long.

 

Stearns has got to stop having most of the offense a yearly revolving door.

To be fair there haven't been any 3+ year bad contract signings. He sometimes gambles on players but never gives them long term contracts we regret. Something Melvin had to do with pitchers because he couldn't grow enough young talent on that side of the ball.

 

I don't have a huge problem with him avoiding bigger FA contracts. Many times they don't work out, they are pricey, and it may be the least efficient way to get offense.

 

That being said you have to get some offense somehow and he really hasn't done that great, especially in recent years. If he doesn't want to spend in FA and doesn't want to make trades he best get to developing it. The outlook is a bit scary. Not much room on the payroll and a bad farm system on paper. The later means trades aren't going to be easy and the pipeline of offense may suck to.

[sveumrules]

Brewers rank in runs per game the last 6 years

2021 - 26 (12th in NL)

2020 - 27 (13th in NL)

2019 - 17 (9th in NL)

2018 - 12 (7th in NL)

2017 - 21 (11th in NL)

2016 - 25 (11th in NL)

 

I never like going full MLB rankings when you have a DH in one league and not in the other. Not that it changes too much but it is nice to have that perspective.

 

True, but even when looking at NL only stats, still pretty poor.

 

Not really. From 2016-21 the Brewers are 8th in the NL in runs scored, so essentially average in a 15 team league.

 

Important to remember that 2021 is only 35 games so far & 2020 was only 60 games, compared to 649 games from 2016-19.

 

Also important to remember that our hitters also have to field & have saved the 4th most runs in the NL since Stearns & company took over.

[pacopete4]

If he has Garcia and Narvaez pan out this season, it will go a long way to helping him in the offensive department. Throw on top a Shaw revival and it could be a good 2021 showing for Stearns. The part that hurts is Yelich being made out of glass all of a sudden. That will kill any teams offense.

[MrTPlush]

Not sure it is really relevant how they have ranked the last five years combined. World Series aren't won over five years, they are each year alone. What I see is a ton of below average offenses and that is what matters. Though sometimes looking at the detailed ranking can be helpful as the teams can be bunched up and the difference between 8th and 11th can be a dozen runs or so.

 

On paper Garcia is due for a good season, lately he has had one every other year.

 

I don't know why I always forget about Narvaez when talking about offense. I actually loved that trade and it is great to see him hitting. On paper he was a fantastic replacement for Grandal for 1/10th the cost.

[PeaveyFury]

Unfortunately, thats what happens when you dumpster dive every year to fill key positions. The Brewers aren’t going to be in the top line FA market. Arguably no team should but that’s another subject.

 

It all comes down to not drafting/developing well because we can’t fill these holes internally and no one is giving us a Trout in exchange for their pick of a bottom 5 ranked farm system.

 

He tried to pick up a long time piece in the Urias deal, he just didn’t understand what he was getting and what he was giving up.

 

You've been one of Searns' biggest detractors here over the years, so I'm not surprised this is your takeaway. But they're within striking distance of first place right now despite a comical amount of injuries thus far and are coming off a three years and counting string of playoff appearances.... I think the FO is doing just fine personally.

[sveumrules]

Not sure it is really relevant how they have ranked the last five years combined. World Series aren't won over five years, they are each year alone. What I see is a ton of below average offenses and that is what matters. Though sometimes looking at the detailed ranking can be helpful as the teams can be bunched up and the difference between 8th and 11th can be a dozen runs or so.

 

The relevance of the combined total is to give an idea of how they have performed in aggregate during Stearns & company's tenure.

 

Examining the year by year totals/placement I think also paints the picture of an offense that has been much closer to average than to pretty poor.

 

2016: MIL 4.14 R/G (11th) vs NL avg 4.44 R/G (Solidly below average, to be expected in year one of a rebuild)

2017: MIL 4.52 R/G (11th) vs NL avg 4.58 R/G (Essentially average, .06 R/G difference)

2018: MIL 4.63 R/G (7th) vs NL avg 4.37 R/G (Solidly above average)

2019: MIL 4.75 R/G (9th) vs NL avg 4.78 R/G (Essentially average, .03 R/G difference)

2020: MIL 4.12 R/G (13th) vs NL avg 4.71 R/G (Pretty poor, but also only 60 games during a pandemic)

2021: MIL 3.83 R/G (12th) vs NL avg 4.31 R/G( Pretty poor, but also only 35 games of 162 total)

 

On a seasonal level there has been about 257 games (2016 & 2020-21 so far) of below average to bad offense & 487 games (2017-19) of average to above average offense.

[RollieTime]

I think Stearns was trying to be ahead of the curve by looking for high-OBP / contact hitters. They should be hurt much less by a dead ball than the "launch angle" guys will be. Pair that with good pitching and defense, and you can win on a low budget. Of course, they don't help anything when they're watching the games while riding out an IL stint.

 

I don’t think this is true. The one frustrating thing is that people have talked about him looking for hitters with better approaches that strikeout less when in reality he has basically never put reducing strikeouts as a priority of the offense. In terms of team strikeouts:

 

2016 Dead last

2017 Dead last

2018 25th

2019 26th

2020 29th

2021 28th

 

A list of his recent free agent targets and their strikeout percentages:

 

Shaw 27%

Vogelbach 31%

Garcia 26%

Smoak 27%

Bradley Jr. 29%

 

Then we have Hiura at 37% to go along with that group.

 

I’ve listed players I would have liked to see targeted the last few offseasons and they would have been been significant additions at very reasonable contracts.

 

Wilmer Flores prior to 2019 and went on to hit .317, Jose Iglesias prior to 2019 and went on to hit .288 at SS. I know both of these were cheap and I think both were around $3 million. Their strikeout percentages are 14% and 13% respectively. Other players I mentioned were Michael Brantley (long shot, but we had the money. Just was allocated elsewhere) both times he was a free agent and Tommy La Stella recently. Maikel Franco and his 17% K rate would look pretty good in this lineup.

 

It’s actually pretty frustrating when there are very good pieces available and the deals don’t get done. I know it takes two to tango, but if you offer an extra million to a guy like Jose Iglesias or Wilmer Flores, I imagine they would have found themselves in Milwaukee. Stearns certainly hasn’t gone the route of reducing strikeouts though and the results his entire tenure to this point show that.

[RollieTime]

I don't have a huge problem with him avoiding bigger FA contracts. Many times they don't work out, they are pricey, and it may be the least efficient way to get offense.

 

That being said you have to get some offense somehow and he really hasn't done that great, especially in recent years. If he doesn't want to spend in FA and doesn't want to make trades he best get to developing it. The outlook is a bit scary. Not much room on the payroll and a bad farm system on paper. The later means trades aren't going to be easy and the pipeline of offense may suck to.

 

I don’t think people realize how dire it actually looks right now. Some prospects will flame out that look promising right now. The big league roster doesn’t exactly have much valuable pieces if we had to tear it down. The drafting of bats has been poor. Burnes and Woodruff would bring a good haul, but what’s Hader’s value? People seem to think we can’t get a ton for him. Williams would bring quite a bit I imagine. Yelich’s contract and recent injuries greatly reduces his value. Cain won’t bring back anything. Hiura’s value is basically rock bottom. A complete tear down would basically put this roster at a 50 win roster at best with little in the immediate pipeline to rely on to pull us out of a rebuild.

 

I will give credit and say we have great depth at catcher in the minors, but we basically have holes all over the offense throughout the minors. We are teetering on a lengthy rebuild and are riding a very fine line with it currently. The little bit we had has been traded away in recent years with little on the big league roster worth much to anyone.

 

This outlook is very scary indeed.