keston hiura optioned

[PeaveyFury]

I don't think anyone is thinking/advocating they trade him for nothing. But I do think they would trade him if they felt they got a fair return on him at this point.

 

I would definitely look at trading him for a perceived fair return. If he goes on to mash somewhere else, then it is what it is.

 

What is his perceived fair return though? I can't imagine he brings back anything that would be a difference maker this season so it seems to me the Brewers are better off hanging on to him and see if he can correct his issues next year.

 

To your point, it's impossible for us to know the answers to what the team perceives as his actual, possibly revised ceiling now to justify a potential return. Similarly, we don't know for certain what other teams' perceived value is right now.

 

But, I do think that the perceived value might be higher for a team in the league with the DH.

[CheezWizHed]

 

Got a guy Id wonder on. Seth Beer of Arizona minors. 1b. I'd have to strongly consider that since a true 1b(unathletically) vs Keston. Hes off to a good start in AAA.

 

You want to bring Beer to the Brewers?

 

I'm in. 100%.

 

Riley Pint just retired from the Rockies organization.

 

Mmmm, Pint of Beer.

 

Blake Stein retired from pitching back in 2002. At 6'7", he'd be a big Beer Stein

[Jopal78]

and was initially called up because he had nothing else to prove in the minor leagues.

 

I don't know why his strikeout rate in AAA back in 2019 is just ignored. He was between 18.1% and 20.9% throughout the minors and it jumped to 26.3% in AAA. That's pretty significant and concerning and it jumped to 30.7% in the majors his rookie year and has only gotten worse.

 

Hiura had a .558 slugging percentage in the minors and .570 in 2019. Any team will live with a healthy dose of swing and miss if that's the kind of power the player brings. His problem was the K rate went up and the slugging percentage plummeted.

[Simba2020]

and was initially called up because he had nothing else to prove in the minor leagues.

 

I don't know why his strikeout rate in AAA back in 2019 is just ignored. He was between 18.1% and 20.9% throughout the minors and it jumped to 26.3% in AAA. That's pretty significant and concerning and it jumped to 30.7% in the majors his rookie year and has only gotten worse.

 

Hiura had a .558 slugging percentage in the minors and .570 in 2019. Any team will live with a healthy dose of swing and miss if that's the kind of power the player brings. His problem was the K rate went up and the slugging percentage plummeted.

While true that teams will gladly put up with K rates like that when it comes with that level of slugging, I was absolutely concerned about the sudden jump in his K rate in 2019. AAA slugging was up a good 10% in 2019 due to the bogus baseball introduced that year which I think fueled some of his production at both levels (along with his babip rates). I didn't foresee the complete cratering he has endured this year but I can't say I'm completely surprised either.

[Underachiever]

 

Riley Pint just retired from the Rockies organization.

 

Mmmm, Pint of Beer.

 

Blake Stein retired from pitching back in 2002. At 6'7", he'd be a big Beer Stein

I'm still upset the Brewers didn't move heaven and earth to get Nick Bierbrodt on the team back in the day. Start with a Stein, move to a Bierbrodt, and chase him with a Pint. Except they would probably be required to stop using them after the end of the 7th inning.

[AKCheesehead]

That’s fine, bring in Tim Belcher to close it out.

[tigerbrew]

Took a look at the Nashville boxscore today and the Sounds won their game 14-1 and have a record of 24-9, Wow. Hiura with 1 hit , 3 walks and no strikeout today.

[Zad Fnark]

Is AAA pitching that bad?

 

Hiura yesterday: 3-4, 2 HR, BB, 3 RBI, 3 R

 

He's pretty much torching it down there.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Is AAA pitching that bad?

 

Hiura yesterday: 3-4, 2 HR, BB, 3 RBI, 3 R

 

He's pretty much torching it down there.

 

Unless he's made changes to his approach, I don't think much can be taken from his AAA numbers. His K rate is obviously not as high as it was in MLB, but it is still high enough to be concerning. I'm not real sure why AAA pitchers simply aren't feeding him a steady diet of high fastballs?

[umphrey]

What a mess. Can't leave him in AAA forever if he's raking, can't call him up and play him, can't trade him, can't release him.

[SeaBass]

I think it's safe to say a portion of what's been ailing Hiura exists squarely between his ears along with the hole in his bat and all the strikeouts, but he shouldn't be hitting as bad as he has been at the major league level even if he was only struggling with his strikeouts. Making contact is making contact and he's clearly having less issues doing that with less pressure in the minor leagues right now. He's seen plenty of mistake pitches and hittable pitches in the bigs he just hasn't been putting the bat on the ball.

[homer]

He's had 11 K's in 36 ABs since demotion #2. No idea how many times he's swung and missed in the zone.

[PeaveyFury]

What a mess. Can't leave him in AAA forever if he's raking, can't call him up and play him, can't trade him, can't release him.

 

Well, I guess that would depend on your definition of 'forever'. They've obviously been through this before when they sent him down last time, then called him back up after raking to have him struggle again. I'd expect them to keep him in AAA longer- until they're comfortable with his K rate and mechanics, then call him up again.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This is somehow, possibly, worse than him having trouble down there. This is when he's starting to look like a AAAA player.

[MrTPlush]

It is a pretty different animal. You got guys trying to work on pitches so they won't necessarily pitch Hiura in the best way possible. Hiura is going to benefit heavily if a pitcher is suppose to be working on off speed stuff...pretty common in AAA. There also probably isn't as much scouting and heavy game plans like you will see at the MLB level.

 

AAA pitching isn't that good though. The AAA - East has 8 qualified pitchers with a sub 4 ERA. The #4 guy has an ERA of 3.60. They really don't light the world on fire.

 

It isn't that rare for a guy to mash AAA pitching and be clueless against MLB pitching, hence the term AAAA player. It very common to be honest.

[brooks_quichenick]

Just having watched a handful of his most recent AAA at bats, it seemed like his leg kick has become a bit less pronounced. More of a slide step. He looks quicker to the ball

[sveumrules]

He's had 11 K's in 36 ABs since demotion #2. No idea how many times he's swung and missed in the zone.

 

Nine walks too, so 11 Ks in 45 PAs is a 24.4 K%.

 

First time around in AAA was 13 Ks in 40 PAs for a 32.5 K%.

 

Small samples abound, but it appears to maybe be progress.

[Eye Black]

He's had 11 K's in 36 ABs since demotion #2. No idea how many times he's swung and missed in the zone.

 

Nine walks too, so 11 Ks in 45 PAs is a 24.4 K%.

 

First time around in AAA was 13 Ks in 40 PAs for a 32.5 K%.

 

Small samples abound, but it appears to maybe be progress.

Among all qualified Triple-A batters in 2021 the current average strikeout rate is 26.9%. In 2019 Hiura had a 26.3% strikeout rate at Triple-A in 243 plate appearances. Going forward if Keston can hover below a 25% strikeout rate in Triple-A I think that should be considered progress. He’s never going to be a low strikeout hitter, but they certainly can’t afford for him to be a greater than 35% strikeout guy at the MLB level, either.

[JCREW]

Just having watched a handful of his most recent AAA at bats, it seemed like his leg kick has become a bit less pronounced. More of a slide step. He looks quicker to the ball

 

I was at the Wednesday night game in Gwinnett (AAA Braves). I thought his leg kick was more of a slide too. I didn't take notes or anything, but iirc, he had very few swinging strikes. Most strikes against him were foul balls or strikes looking. Perhaps I'm just being hopeful, but I was happy about the lack of whiff.

[sveumrules]

Vogelbach has been at 243/354/441 (119 wRC+) over 130 PAs since Hiura was sent down the first time, so they don't really need to rush him back.

 

If Keston is still raking in a couple two tree weeks with a reasonable K rate & hopefully simplified mechanics, then it starts to get a lil more interesting.

 

It's good to have options.

[homer]

He's had 11 K's in 36 ABs since demotion #2. No idea how many times he's swung and missed in the zone.

 

Nine walks too, so 11 Ks in 45 PAs is a 24.4 K%.

 

First time around in AAA was 13 Ks in 40 PAs for a 32.5 K%.

 

Small samples abound, but it appears to maybe be progress.

 

Thanks. That context helps. If he can stay under 25% for an extended period I'll believe it's real.

[nate82]

 

If Keston is still raking in a couple two tree weeks with a reasonable K rate & hopefully simplified mechanics, then it starts to get a lil more interesting.

 

 

I will go with about treefiddy.

[adambr2]

Keston could hit .400 for 2 months in AAA and it's not going to mean a thing. I'll believe he's made progress when he comes up to Milwaukee and hits MLB pitching. As others have said, right now he's the textbook definition of an AAAA player.

 

I don't think it's totally out of the realm of possibility that they may leave him down there to hopefully rake for another month in an effort to recoup as much of his trade value as possible before dealing him in July.

[markedman5]

I don’t think he will recoup enough trade value to make that plan a reality.

 

I think they will give him another shot up here when they feel he has made progress in the areas that were giving him trouble. I doubt they trade him before he gets another chance in Milwaukee.

 

We will see.

[Eye Black]

With Vogelbach hurt, Haudricourt speculated that the Brewers will need to call Hiura back up out of necessity (Link).

 

In just the past week David Stearns was quoted as saying the following:

 

“I think the way I look at it is, the first time we sent him down, I was probably doing daily check-ins to kind of monitor performance, see how we were doing. This time around I’m probably doing weekly check-ins to monitor performance, see how we’re doing. And I think that’s probably a little bit more fair to everyone involved, and probably gives Keston a little bit more time to get himself going. So I think from that perspective, there’s probably a little bit more space involved, probably a little bit more time involved.”

 

In addition to the quote above Counsell had said it was a situation that required some space.

 

I am sort of fascinated to see what the Brewers do with Hiura now that they have an immediate need at first base. I have a hard time picturing Jace Peterson and Daniel Robertson covering first base every day over an extended period of time, but there aren’t many other feasible internal options.