keston hiura optioned

[Thurston Fluff]

If it was my call I'd probably give him some time off before playing anywhere. Take some time to watch video, work on mechanics, take BP that sort of thing. IIRC they did the same thing with Burnes for a while.

[Warning Track Power]

Look how flat the swing is, compared to now, in that YouTube video!

[TURBO]

If I’m Taylor I’m asking CC if I can work at first base before games……just to see if he has an aptitude for it…..likely a long shot but when Cain returns that would be his clearest path for staying in the majors.

 

If CC hasn't thought of that himself, then that doesn't say much for CC.

 

TT has zero professional innings at 1B in his career, I'll go out on a limb and say there is a 99.9% chance that he does not play his first ever inning at 1B for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 & that there is nothing wrong with CC for never giving the idea any consideration.

 

I know he has never played 1B, and I think there is better than a 99.9% chance he plays his first ever inning at 1B this season. Not saying it is going to happen, but you throwing out a % like that seems a bit far fetched. YOU just don't know.

 

I disagree on your second point. CC and anyone else in charge of making roster decisions should 100% consider giving Taylor some reps during practice at 1B. If they have an in house answer to their problem at 1B that they don't at the very least consider, then shame on all of them. Can Taylor play a passable 1B? I haven't a clue, but if he can, they need to find that out.

[homer]

Look how flat the swing is, compared to now, in that YouTube video!

 

I thought his launch angle was pretty close to the same as 2019 but now I look at it and 2021 is 19.4 and 2019 was 16.4

 

Maybe I read it wrong the first time. But your eyes are seeing what I'm seeing. He's got a very loopy swing this year. Right shoulder/elbow is dropping way down.

[damuelle]

Is the 4th rule of Fight Club that we don’t talk about Hernan Perez as a call-up possibility?

[Warning Track Power]

Look how flat the swing is, compared to now, in that YouTube video!

 

Last time I looked his launch angle was pretty close to the same as 2019 but now I look at 2021 is 19.4 and 2019 was 16.4

 

Maybe I read it wrong the first time. But your eyes are seeing what I'm seeing. He's got a very loopy swing this year. Right shoulder/elbow is dropping way down.

I was watching the game with my Dad on Saturday and there was a clip of Haines working with Hiura in the cage pregame and we both noted that Hiura's first move to the ball in the cage was his back (right) shoulder immediately dropping before swinging. His mechanics are messed up pretty badly.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hiura's hands/batspeed through the zone are elite - but his timing/swing load mechanism are totally out of whack and it does seem like what adjustment he may have made in terms of increasing his launch angle have really created holes all over his swing because the bat just isn't on plane nearly long enough to make consistent contact.

 

I never envisioned Hiura being a potential 30+ HR per season player, but his start in 2019 projected him to have that potential with a pretty high average to boot....I think he ran too much down the road of swing adjustments looking for a bit more power power that he simply didn't need to do. Even in 2019 he was a high strikeout hitter - but he did damage to all fields with that much more level swing. He's got to get back to that type of swing for starters before doing anything with adjusting his timing/footwork in the batters box.

[Warning Track Power]

Is the 4th rule of Fight Club that we don’t talk about Hernan Perez as a call-up possibility?

At least he will be entertaining. Adames and Perez in the dugout together will be fun. If they could only get Aguilar back...

[DHonks]

There’s a decent chance that Keston has played his last game for the Milwaukee Brewers. I bet we flip him for a bullpen arm at the deadline.

 

because buying high and selling low is the right strategy, right? The reality is that he has more value to us than to any other franchise. There's no way we swap him right now when he's got another option. He's young and talented, and--to be honest--currently the best bat we have in our farm system.

[Warning Track Power]

because buying high and selling low is the right strategy, right? The reality is that he has more value to us than to any other franchise. There's no way we swap him right now when he's got another option. He's young and talented, and--to be honest--currently the best bat we have in our farm system.

Absolutely agree with this. I am sitting on Hiura in my NL Only dynasty fantasy league and I suggest the Brewers do the same. The only way a deal of Hiura would make sense is if it were for an equally heralded prospect that may have had his star tarnished within that organization. Jo Adell would make some sense with Cain's age, JBJ's ineffectiveness and Garcia's uncertain future, but that would be a risky move on both the Brewers and Angels parts as it could massively blow up in either's face.

[Madhawk23]

I'm no scout but his swing looks way different in these clips:

 

Man, watching some of those hitting clips of Keston really gets me depressed. How did he fall so quickly? That lightning speed bad and the way the ball just exploded when he made contact. Now, he constantly swings and misses at 90mph FB's right down the heart of the plate. Ugh....I know this goes without saying, but we really need this kid to figure it out.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, wrap your arms around him and try to fix likely has more upside than whatever poor return they can get for him right now. I'd also be for him not playing games for a while and focus on mechanics first. Mashing AAA is irrelevant right now. Not like i'd rip them if they didn't go that route, they're the experts after all. But I could see the logic of a total reset of sorts, mentally and mechanically. No rush to bet back to MLB, just get it figured out.

[JCREW]

Kind of hard to say because he could be optioned next year as well which could push arbitration back another year but not likely as he started the year at 1.114. If he stayed in the minors the rest of the year they would gain a year of team control but if he stayed in the minors that long I doubt he would be in their future plans.

 

If he finishes the year with less than 1.172, the team gains another year?

[DHonks]

I'm no scout but his swing looks way different in these clips:

 

Man, watching some of those hitting clips of Keston really gets me depressed. How did he fall so quickly? That lightning speed bad and the way the ball just exploded when he made contact. Now, he constantly swings and misses at 90mph FB's right down the heart of the plate. Ugh....I know this goes without saying, but we really need this kid to figure it out.

 

watching those highlights and it's obvious to see how he's being pitched differently. Pitchers consistently in 2020 and 2021 have thrown him high fastballs that he takes for strikes, high fastballs he swings through, and breaking stuff down and away. In those highlights, almost every pitch was a fastball down, slider mid-thigh, or changeup up. But the key is that he was spraying liners to all fields. I'm guessing he's worked to refine his launch angle for more list, and unfortunately we're finding that the newer pitching technique requires a more level swing and less focus on launch angle (see Kris Bryant's success with less launch). This should be correctable with working on the path to the ball.

[TigerUppercut]

Kind of hard to say because he could be optioned next year as well which could push arbitration back another year but not likely as he started the year at 1.114. If he stayed in the minors the rest of the year they would gain a year of team control but if he stayed in the minors that long I doubt he would be in their future plans.

 

If he finishes the year with less than 1.172, the team gains another year?

 

You've got to love brewerfan.net'ers worrying about service time on a guy hitting .130 in 108 at bats. Not to overstate the obvious, but that's probably worrying about the wrong thing at this point. Personally, I'm worried about whether or not this guy is ever going to be good again, not what lies ahead 5 years from now. Seems more pragmatic.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the team winds u s clock back far enough yes theyd gain another year of control but He'd become a Super 2 player.

 

I will be interested in seeing if Hiura has the success this time on hitting AAA because his time down would have been around first starts of the season for some of the pitchers he faced. Spring Training essentially, and now we're approaching what would be the beginning of MLB season time-frame. I wouldn't allow him back on the team til his K pct down in the minors after 120PAs was at or below 31pct. circa 2019 statistically.

[wibadgers23]

Maybe it’s possible for him to regain some of his value by mashing in AAA like he was before being called back up and then we could flip him at the deadline for something useful.

[sveumrules]

You've got to love brewerfan.net'ers worrying about service time on a guy hitting .130 in 108 at bats. Not to overstate the obvious, but that's probably worrying about the wrong thing at this point. Personally, I'm worried about whether or not this guy is ever going to be good again, not what lies ahead 5 years from now. Seems more pragmatic.

 

The most pragmatic thing to do would be to zoom out as far as possible.

 

Might as well start with the first round of 2017, when Keston was selected 9th. Just over half (19) of the 36 first round picks in 2017 have yet to appear in MLB. Of the 17 who have gotten to MLB, Keston is one of only six with a positive WAR so far...

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2017&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

Sure, Hiura is hitting .130 in 108 at bats this year. In the 531 at bats he took before this year he hit .266. In 639 career at bats he is hitting .243.

 

But why limit our scope to at bats & batting average, that excludes walks & extra base hits. What's kind of crazy is despite a 22 OPS+ over 122 PAs this year & an 87 OPS+ over 246 PAs last year, Keston has still been slightly above average with a 102 OPS+ over 716 career PAs.

 

Four years ago he was viewed as one of the best bats in his draft class & for all his struggles so far the only player who has hit better than him to this point is Pavin Smith, who came off the board two picks earlier at #7.

 

I mean if he's ever gonna be good again, it will probably require a couple two tree months in the minors & if that ends up being long enough to get an extra year down the road of someone who is maybe hopefully good again...what's there to worry about?

[wntrtxn21]

I don't think you can put much stock in his previous years. Pitchers have found his weakest points and are exploiting them. Hiura cannot adjust his swing to compensate. I think one of the most important numbers to look at now is his lack of contact. 35% whiff rate last year and a whopping 40% whiff rate (48 strikeouts in only 122 PAs) this year.

[SRB]

I don't think you can put much stock in his previous years. Pitchers have found his weakest points and are exploiting them. Hiura cannot adjust his swing to compensate. I think one of the most important numbers to look at now is his lack of contact. 35% whiff rate last year and a whopping 40% whiff rate (48 strikeouts in only 122 PAs) this year.

 

I'm not sure it is just pitchers figuring him out. He is visibly a different (and much worse) hitter at the plate. In some ways that is worse, of course, but I guess in some ways it is also better than him being the same as he's always been and just getting beat.

[sveumrules]

I don't think you can put much stock in his previous years. Pitchers have found his weakest points and are exploiting them. Hiura cannot adjust his swing to compensate. I think one of the most important numbers to look at now is his lack of contact. 35% whiff rate last year and a whopping 40% whiff rate (48 strikeouts in only 122 PAs) this year.

 

That all depends on how much one considers much.

 

The fact that Keston was able to reach MLB before anyone else in his draft class & post a 138 OPS+ over 348 PAs (even with an unsustainable BABIP/K%) is still a testament to how much natural talent he possesses as a hitter, even if he isn't fully realizing it currently.

 

He did nothing but rope all through high school, college, the minors, his first taste of the Majors. These last 368 PAs from 2020-21 are the first time he's ever struggled in his life.

 

Now he's got to make an adjustment. Maybe I'm some kind of crazy optimist, but I think Keston's future results will make the 22 OPS+ he has posted so far this year look like more of an outlier than the 138 mark he posted in 2019.

 

It seems like a lot of people are giving the most stock to the most recent data points, even though they are contextually the most amomalous. Time will tell, I guess.

[rickh150]

If I’m Taylor I’m asking CC if I can work at first base before games……just to see if he has an aptitude for it…..likely a long shot but when Cain returns that would be his clearest path for staying in the majors.

 

If CC hasn't thought of that himself, then that doesn't say much for CC.

 

TT has zero professional innings at 1B in his career, I'll go out on a limb and say there is a 99.9% chance that he does not play his first ever inning at 1B for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 & that there is nothing wrong with CC for never giving the idea any consideration.

 

Curious.... did you feel the same about Hiura and McKinney at 1B? Since 5’7” Hiura was seriously considered the Brewers first baseman, ANYONE is a possible. Your limb is shaky.

[sveumrules]

TT has zero professional innings at 1B in his career, I'll go out on a limb and say there is a 99.9% chance that he does not play his first ever inning at 1B for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 & that there is nothing wrong with CC for never giving the idea any consideration.

 

Curious.... did you feel the same about Hiura and McKinney at 1B? Since 5’7” Hiura was seriously considered the Brewers first baseman, ANYONE is a possible. Your limb is shaky.

 

McKinney had 79 innings at 1B in the minors, another 97 in the Fall League & 29 in MLB before coming to MIL, so while his experience was minimal it was still infinitely more than Tyrone's.

 

Hiura had the offseason to prepare for & spring training to gain experience playing 1B, he also had extensive experience as a poor second basenan, so at least he had spent time in the dirt & on the right side of the IF before.

 

The shaky limb is not realizing how different those situations are from dropping Taylor in at 1B with no preparation or experience in the middle of a pennant race when plenty of options with experience are readily available.

 

What percent chance do you give Taylor of appearing at 1B for the Brewers this year?

[rickh150]

TT has zero professional innings at 1B in his career, I'll go out on a limb and say there is a 99.9% chance that he does not play his first ever inning at 1B for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 & that there is nothing wrong with CC for never giving the idea any consideration.

 

Curious.... did you feel the same about Hiura and McKinney at 1B? Since 5’7” Hiura was seriously considered the Brewers first baseman, ANYONE is a possible. Your limb is shaky.

 

McKinney had 79 innings at 1B in the minors, another 97 in the Fall League & 29 in MLB before coming to MIL, so while his experience was minimal it was still infinitely more than Tyrone's.

 

Hiura had the offseason to prepare for & spring training to gain experience playing 1B, he also had extensive experience as a poor second basenan, so at least he had spent time in the dirt & on the right side of the IF before.

 

The shaky limb is not realizing how different those situations are from dropping Taylor in at 1B with no preparation or experience in the middle of a pennant race when plenty of options with experience are readily available.

 

What percent chance do you give Taylor of appearing at 1B for the Brewers this year?

 

Plenty of experienced options at 1B? Plenty that are hitting a buck something. And here is the key info.... Really no great options against a lefty, and that is when Taylor really gets going (.908 OPS). He might be the best hitter we have against lefties!

 

When ideally Cain is back, I could see Taylor playing 1B with a Yelich, Cain, Garcia outfield against a lefty. I could see it before then too. The bar is very low at 1B, and Taylor needs to play against lefties. CC loves flexibility, and if he thought Hiura could play 1B in the majors with no experience, being a poor thrower and a shorter target..... it’s wide open to anyone.... including Vogelbach who doesn’t belong there either.

 

Sure would be nice to have a couple of weeks to practice the position, you say? Well, it is June 7 and there is plenty of time to get Taylor acquainted to the position during the day.... tons of practice time with coaches.

 

At least an inning at 1B in 2021? 25%

Edited June 8, 2021 by rickh150

[Jopal78]

He’s not the long term answer at 2nd, he’s no longer the long term answer at 1st. He has too much experience to be considered a prospect.

 

I’d trade him for whatever pitching the can get. And explain it as a change of scenery