Only one month, but offensive numbers were down across the league

[JET15]

Happy May Day. The first month is in the books and the AP just published an interesting article on the down offensive numbers

 

https://apnews.com/article/chicago-white-sox-miami-marlins-mlb-baseball-sports-1e829d6c668130bfda88b99ade914d4e

 

Batters are hitting just .232 which is under the low of .237 of infamous '68. Detroit finished April at .199. There were 9.06 Ks per team per game which is nearly double the 4.77 in '79. And HRs are 1.14/game/team, the lowest since 2015.

 

Is it the new baseball, the weather, the batters' approach...? Probably too early tell, but definitely worth watching as we good forward

[MadScientist]

Pitching has improved, but defensive shifts have also forced batters to change their approaches, as well as analytics favoring a 3TO approach.

[owbc]

Couple things going on. First, ball has clearly been deadened, as the HR rate has dropped (but not much, only back to 2018 levels).

 

The main thing is that BABIP is way down, again, to .283, lowest since 1989. Considering BABIP has barely budged historically (usually .295 to .300 even as recent as 2-3 years ago), we're clearly seeing the impact of defensive shifting. Given the recent obsession with exit velocity and launch angles, the drop is BABIP is significant. The value of putting the ball in play is lower than ever. 7.63 hits per game would be the lowest in MLB history if it holds for the full season.

 

However, the changes have not been reflected in runs scored, as MLB teams have gotten more efficient at scoring runs with a low number of hits (i.e. 3TO baseball). This is the smart thing to do when you look at the numbers. 3TO baseball is the best way to score runs in an era with low BABIP.

 

Ways to fix? Lots of possibilities...

a) Make it easier to steal bases, which increases the value of singles and walks.

b) Require infielders to have one foot on the dirt when the ball is pitched (controversial, but it would work...).

c) Move back the mound

d) Further ball deadening or move back outfield walls to reduce HR rate

e) Bunts with 2 strikes are foul balls, not strikeouts

[SeaBass]

I've been speculating lately that, even though this season was better than last, spring training still wasn't normal by any stretch of the imagination this year. Normally they'd have a roster full of minor leaguers and vets trying to make the club and we had that but not for very long. No split squads which resulted in less available at bats leading to really trying to spread a small glob of butter over too much bread. Then you have guys with nagging injuries or guys like JBJ that signed late so their at bats are low as well. I don't know if that's reading too much into it but it feels like maybe it's just taking some guys longer to find a groove. Maybe not though.

[timpep]

I've been speculating lately that, even though this season was better than last, spring training still wasn't normal by any stretch of the imagination this year. Normally they'd have a roster full of minor leaguers and vets trying to make the club and we had that but not for very long. No split squads which resulted in less available at bats leading to really trying to spread a small glob of butter over too much bread. Then you have guys with nagging injuries or guys like JBJ that signed late so their at bats are low as well. I don't know if that's reading too much into it but it feels like maybe it's just taking some guys longer to find a groove. Maybe not though.

 

I thought about this as well but I think the pitching would be facing the same issues as well, such as starters being more limited in pitch counts etc. Then I think that maybe that actually helps the pitching because fewer guys are being left in long enough to implode.

[JET15]

Ways to fix? Lots of possibilities...

a) Make it easier to steal bases, which increases the value of singles and walks.

b) Require infielders to have one foot on the dirt when the ball is pitched (controversial, but it would work...).

c) Move back the mound

d) Further ball deadening or move back outfield walls to reduce HR rate

e) Bunts with 2 strikes are foul balls, not strikeouts

 

I like A & E. Any ideas on how to go about making it easier to steal bases?

[owbc]

Ways to fix? Lots of possibilities...

a) Make it easier to steal bases, which increases the value of singles and walks.

b) Require infielders to have one foot on the dirt when the ball is pitched (controversial, but it would work...).

c) Move back the mound

d) Further ball deadening or move back outfield walls to reduce HR rate

e) Bunts with 2 strikes are foul balls, not strikeouts

 

I like A & E. Any ideas on how to go about making it easier to steal bases?

 

Bigger bases. I’m serious, I believe they are testing it in the Atlantic league. Also making it more difficult to make throws to first, although I’m not sure exactly what the plan was there.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Make the vertical plane above the base "safe" once the base runner has physically touched the base. Don't call base runners out by checking replay and seeing that someone's finger came off the base for .3 seconds by 2 tenths of a centimeter. If it's not something that could realistically be seen by the human eye, unaided by technology, then it's probably not something that should be overturned. I'm all for getting it right, but I'm not even sure that calling someone out who's finger or hand comes off the bag for a quarter second is "getting it right", within the spirit of the game.

[Underachiever]

Make the vertical plane above the base "safe" once the base runner has physically touched the base. Don't call base runners out by checking replay and seeing that someone's finger came off the base for .3 seconds by 2 tenths of a centimeter. If it's not something that could realistically be seen by the human eye, unaided by technology, then it's probably not something that should be overturned. I'm all for getting it right, but I'm not even sure that calling someone out who's finger or hand comes off the bag for a quarter second is "getting it right", within the spirit of the game.

Kent Hrbek, circa 1991 WS, disagrees.

[MadThinker88]

Ways to fix? Lots of possibilities...

a) Make it easier to steal bases, which increases the value of singles and walks.

b) Require infielders to have one foot on the dirt when the ball is pitched (controversial, but it would work...).

c) Move back the mound

d) Further ball deadening or move back outfield walls to reduce HR rate

e) Bunts with 2 strikes are foul balls, not strikeouts

 

I like A & E. Any ideas on how to go about making it easier to steal bases?

 

Bigger bases. I’m serious, I believe they are testing it in the Atlantic league. Also making it more difficult to make throws to first, although I’m not sure exactly what the plan was there.

 

Limiting the number of times a pitcher can throw over to a base while that runner occupies that base..

[MrTPlush]

And here we are, back in the endless cycle of no offense or games too long. The league will look for ways to increase offense and then games will be too long...so then we will find more ways to try and make them shorter. Homers are about the only way to add offense and not make games long. Of course now people are starting to complain about 3TO baseball.

 

I’m convinced baseball fans just can’t be pleased.

 

(This isn’t directed at any poster, just what this convo made me think f)

[JohnBriggs12]

Moving back the mound is the obvious and most practical move. Velocity is the biggest problem. Velocity is up like 6-8% over what it was in 1979, which I think as an old Brewer fan was the most entertaining year in all my years watching Brewer baseball. Back then Moose Haas was the hardest throwing starter on the Brewers. He probably sat around 92 with his fastball.

[pacopete4]

How far does the mound have to go back to make a notable difference? Does a combo of making the mound lower and moving it back make more sense?

 

Pitchers are getting hurt more and more and throwing fewer pitches. Drop the game down to 7 innings and attendance and viewership will soar!

[JET15]

ESPN just tried to address some of these issues, but mound changes were not on their long list to address the problems facing MLB

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31394230/the-state-baseball-biggest-questions-mlb-facing-future-sport-stake

[owbc]

How far does the mound have to go back to make a notable difference? Does a combo of making the mound lower and moving it back make more sense?

 

Pitchers are getting hurt more and more and throwing fewer pitches. Drop the game down to 7 innings and attendance and viewership will soar!

 

Moving the mound back one foot turns out to be quite significant:

 

But in its news release, MLB noted the reaction time for a 93.3-mph fastball, which was the major league-average velocity in 2020. The same pitch thrown from 61 feet 6 inches is approximately equivalent to a 91.6-mph fastball. That was the majors’ average fastball velocity in 2010.

 

---

 

And here we are, back in the endless cycle of no offense or games too long. The league will look for ways to increase offense and then games will be too long...so then we will find more ways to try and make them shorter. Homers are about the only way to add offense and not make games long. Of course now people are starting to complain about 3TO baseball.

 

I strongly disagree, it's been shown conclusively that the time taken between pitches is what has increased game time more than any other factor. A home run is the same as any other successful outcome of an at-bat when it comes to time of game. There was an example comparing 2 games from recent vs. the 1980s with the same number of runs, hits, pitching changes, and # of pitches thrown and the modern game was something like 45 minutes longer. Which makes sense--all it takes is 10 seconds longer between pitches to add 45 minutes to a baseball game.

 

Decreasing time between pitches speeds up the game. It's literally that simple. No need to overthink it. Just speed up the time between pitches. The game gets 5 minutes faster for every one second you reduce between pitches. Good luck getting that return with any other type of rule change.

[rickh150]

Allowing no pick throws would help the running game. If you throw over or step off, it’s a balk. Do for baseball what the 3 point shot did for basketball. Allow the game to be played in a different and more exciting way.

[rickh150]

How far does the mound have to go back to make a notable difference? Does a combo of making the mound lower and moving it back make more sense?

 

Pitchers are getting hurt more and more and throwing fewer pitches. Drop the game down to 7 innings and attendance and viewership will soar!

 

Moving the mound back one foot turns out to be quite significant:

 

But in its news release, MLB noted the reaction time for a 93.3-mph fastball, which was the major league-average velocity in 2020. The same pitch thrown from 61 feet 6 inches is approximately equivalent to a 91.6-mph fastball. That was the majors’ average fastball velocity in 2010.

 

---

 

And here we are, back in the endless cycle of no offense or games too long. The league will look for ways to increase offense and then games will be too long...so then we will find more ways to try and make them shorter. Homers are about the only way to add offense and not make games long. Of course now people are starting to complain about 3TO baseball.

 

I strongly disagree, it's been shown conclusively that the time taken between pitches is what has increased game time more than any other factor. A home run is the same as any other successful outcome of an at-bat when it comes to time of game. There was an example comparing 2 games from recent vs. the 1980s with the same number of runs, hits, pitching changes, and # of pitches thrown and the modern game was something like 45 minutes longer. Which makes sense--all it takes is 10 seconds longer between pitches to add 45 minutes to a baseball game.

 

Decreasing time between pitches speeds up the game. It's literally that simple. No need to overthink it. Just speed up the time between pitches. The game gets 5 minutes faster for every one second you reduce between pitches. Good luck getting that return with any other type of rule change.

 

How to put this into the game seamlessly without the idea of a pitch clock is the question...

1. Bonus money for pitching quickly? Top 50 pitchers with the lowest time between pitches get bonus?

2. Bottom 50 get docked pay?

3. Maybe pitch clock early in the game and no clock late innings.

[nate82]

The time between pitches is bad but it is not all the pitchers fault there are plenty of batters who take forever to get in the box and hit. The constant stepping out after every pitch and the umpire granting time 99.999999999999999999999% of the time also slows the game down. The number of mound visits helped a bit but MLB needs to look into the batters also stepping out after every single pitch. This needs to be limited if the pitcher is ready to go and the batter steps out of the box after the pitch the pitcher shouldn't have to wait for the batter to be ready to hit. Ryan Braun was the worst offender of this and is why I am actually glad he is retired.

 

One thing MLB could also do to speed up the game and make the game more fun would be to limit the number of times a pitcher can step off or throw over per PA. Limit it to 2 step offs or pick off attempts per PA once the pitcher goes over this then it is a balk and the runner(s) advance one base. The catcher can throw over to any of the bases unlimited number of times per PA.

 

To improve offense I think moving the mound back by 1 foot is actually a good move and should be done. This will help the batters get more time to swing at a FB and it will make it harder for the pitchers to accurately throw pitches with a lot of spin on them. This might actually slow the game down a bit though as there will probably be more walks in the first couple of years until the pitchers get used to the extra foot. A pitch clock is also needed but the batter also needs to get back in the box and be ready for the next pitch without fixing the batter part a pitch clock is just useless and doesn't really improve the pace of play.

[areacodes]

Allowing no pick throws would help the running game. If you throw over or step off, it’s a balk. Do for baseball what the 3 point shot did for basketball. Allow the game to be played in a different and more exciting way.

 

I think this would be terrible. If you can’t even step off when a runner is on base, they could just take off the moment the pitcher touches the rubber - it would essentially make every single a double.

 

I don’t like limiting the pitchers ability to control the running game with limits on pick off attempts in general

[CheezWizHed]

Does anyone know if the games have sped up as a result of fewer hits?

[owbc]

Does anyone know if the games have sped up as a result of fewer hits?

 

No, time per 9 innings is 3:07, tied with 2020 for the longest ever. I suspect it will continue to get longer if nothing is done as batters continue to try to draw more walks to compensate for the lack of hits.

 

MLB needed a pitch clock 10 years ago. It’s like basketball without a shot clock or football without a play clock at this point. Batters step out after every swing and miss these days. A pitch clock is the least radical of the proposed rule changes.

[Oxy]

I think the easiest answer to all of this is to shrink the strike zone. It has always been an amorphous thing anyways-particularly when it comes to high and low called strikes. Simply tighten that up a few inches and things will normalize in favor of hitters very quickly.

[wntrtxn21]

Allowing no pick throws would help the running game. If you throw over or step off, it’s a balk. Do for baseball what the 3 point shot did for basketball. Allow the game to be played in a different and more exciting way.

 

Then every baserunner ends up on 3rd. A walk becomes a triple because base runners would simply start walking to the next base before the pitcher even starts his motion. The only thing it would do for baseball is ruin the game.

[wntrtxn21]

How far does the mound have to go back to make a notable difference? Does a combo of making the mound lower and moving it back make more sense?

 

Pitchers are getting hurt more and more and throwing fewer pitches. Drop the game down to 7 innings and attendance and viewership will soar!

 

Moving the mound back one foot turns out to be quite significant:

 

But in its news release, MLB noted the reaction time for a 93.3-mph fastball, which was the major league-average velocity in 2020. The same pitch thrown from 61 feet 6 inches is approximately equivalent to a 91.6-mph fastball. That was the majors’ average fastball velocity in 2010.

 

---

 

And here we are, back in the endless cycle of no offense or games too long. The league will look for ways to increase offense and then games will be too long...so then we will find more ways to try and make them shorter. Homers are about the only way to add offense and not make games long. Of course now people are starting to complain about 3TO baseball.

 

I strongly disagree, it's been shown conclusively that the time taken between pitches is what has increased game time more than any other factor. A home run is the same as any other successful outcome of an at-bat when it comes to time of game. There was an example comparing 2 games from recent vs. the 1980s with the same number of runs, hits, pitching changes, and # of pitches thrown and the modern game was something like 45 minutes longer. Which makes sense--all it takes is 10 seconds longer between pitches to add 45 minutes to a baseball game.

 

Decreasing time between pitches speeds up the game. It's literally that simple. No need to overthink it. Just speed up the time between pitches. The game gets 5 minutes faster for every one second you reduce between pitches. Good luck getting that return with any other type of rule change.

 

The numbers I saw from MLB show: in 1985 the average game was 2:50. In 1987- 2:52. Go to 2020 and it's 3:07 or 15 mins longer. In MLB something like 160 pitches are thrown by each team per game. If a pitch clock saved two seconds per pitch, that would be 640 secs. or 10 mins and 40 seconds per game.

[CheezWizHed]

Allowing no pick throws would help the running game. If you throw over or step off, it’s a balk. Do for baseball what the 3 point shot did for basketball. Allow the game to be played in a different and more exciting way.

 

Then every baserunner ends up on 3rd. A walk becomes a triple because base runners would simply start walking to the next base before the pitcher even starts his motion. The only thing it would do for baseball is ruin the game.

 

Kind of reminds me of the time I was on 1st and the pitcher went out of the windup, instead of the stretch. I stole second so bad that I rounded the bag and looked in to see the ball hit the catcher's mitt (and I was NOT fast). It did make me wonder if the batter had hit a fly ball, would I have had to go back to 1st (being on second before the ball was hit)?