Lauer starting tomorrow

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Serious question.

 

What do Lauer and Houser lack to be number 2 type starters going forward? Is the strikeout numbers? Are their secondary pitches not good enough? I dont follow advanced stats enough to know.

 

I think it's a mix of somewhat spotty past consistency along with a lack of eye-popping stuff. Houser typically sits in the mid 90s (93-95) with his fastball, although he has dialed it up to 97 as a reliever in the past. He doesn't have the potentially triple-digit arm that Burnes or Woodruff bring, though. Lauer typically sits in the low 90s, although he can ramp it up to 95 on occasion. Solid, especially for a lefty starter, but not extraordinary.

[homer]

Serious question.

 

What do Lauer and Houser lack to be number 2 type starters going forward? Is the strikeout numbers? Are their secondary pitches not good enough? I dont follow advanced stats enough to know.

 

I think it's a mix of somewhat spotty past consistency along with a lack of eye-popping stuff. Houser typically sits in the mid 90s (93-95) with his fastball, although he has dialed it up to 97 as a reliever in the past. He doesn't have the potentially triple-digit arm that Burnes or Woodruff bring, though. Lauer typically sits in the low 90s, although he can ramp it up to 95 on occasion. Solid, especially for a lefty starter, but not extraordinary.

 

Crazy how that same speed would have been top of the rotation stuff 10 years ago.

[monty57]

I think maybe you are jumping the gun calling Lauer and Houser "top end starters."

 

Yes, they have been impressive as of late, but top end?

 

Top end to me is a #1 or #2, they are not that..........yet.

 

It's nice that we'll only lose Anderson after this year, and have everyone else under team control for several years. Going into next year, we'll have five "proven" guys who could immediately start in any MLB rotation, Ashby "got his feet wet" and looked pretty good, and Small is sitting in the wings as one of our top prospects.

 

Whether Lauer and Houser continue pitching like "top end starters" or they end up being "middle-of-the rotation" guys, we're looking pretty good going forward.

[CheezWizHed]

Lauer's improvement from last year is impressive. I did not see his game last night, but clearly he was efficient in reaching 7 innings in 87 pitches. And against a good BB team, not the AAA Cubs.

 

His K/9 and BB/9 this year are far more inline with his years in SD, but his H/9 is quite a bit lower this year - pushing his WHIP down. Given he moved from SD to Milwaukee, one would think the park factors wouldn't be in his favor. But even if his ERA regresses toward his FIP, he shows that he is a strong SP candidate.

 

I also find it hard to believe the some people still say Houser should be in the BP. Neither of these guys are TOR starters but they have shown enough to be considered strong #3 or #4 level SPs (maybe #4/#5 for Lauer).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lauer's improvement from last year is impressive. I did not see his game last night, but clearly he was efficient in reaching 7 innings in 87 pitches. And against a good BB team, not the AAA Cubs.

 

His K/9 and BB/9 this year are far more inline with his years in SD, but his H/9 is quite a bit lower this year - pushing his WHIP down. Given he moved from SD to Milwaukee, one would think the park factors wouldn't be in his favor. But even if his ERA regresses toward his FIP, he shows that he is a strong SP candidate.

 

I also find it hard to believe the some people still say Houser should be in the BP. Neither of these guys are TOR starters but they have shown enough to be considered strong #3 or #4 level SPs (maybe #4/#5 for Lauer).

 

I think Lauer, given his younger age and the fact he's a lefty, actually has a higher upside than Houser. Houser might have slightly better raw stuff, but it's pretty close I'd say.

[sveumrules]

Serious question.

 

What do Lauer and Houser lack to be number 2 type starters going forward? Is the strikeout numbers? Are their secondary pitches not good enough? I don't follow advanced stats enough to know.

 

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) takes the three outcomes that pitchers exert the most control over (strikeouts, walks, home runs) and synthesizes them to scale with ERA. Since ERA includes a number of factors pitchers exert considerably less control over, it is noisier on a year to year basis, whereas FIP correlates much better from season to season.

 

Looking at the top five starters you can see how Houser and Lauer have K% and BB% much closer to league average, which translates to around a league average FIP, where the Big Three have much better K/BB percentages yielding more impressive FIPs...

 

Burnes | 147 K%+ | 55 BB%+ | 26 HR9+ | 37 FIP-

Woodruff | 127 K%+ | 72 BB%+ | 77 HR9+ | 72 FIP-

Peralta | 143 K%+ | 117 BB&+ | 67 HR9+ | 73 FIP-

Lauer | 91 K%+ | 86 BB%+ | 88 HR9+ | 94 FIP-

Houser | 76 K%+ | 118 BB%+ | 65 HR9+ | 103 FIP-

 

While Houser & Lauer might be closer to league average by FIP, they rank 20th (Lauer 71) and 48th (Houser 85) by ERA- among 126 starters with at least 80 IP so both are already performing in the range of number two starters by run prevention if not by pure stuff.

[CheezWizHed]

Lauer's improvement from last year is impressive. I did not see his game last night, but clearly he was efficient in reaching 7 innings in 87 pitches. And against a good BB team, not the AAA Cubs.

 

His K/9 and BB/9 this year are far more inline with his years in SD, but his H/9 is quite a bit lower this year - pushing his WHIP down. Given he moved from SD to Milwaukee, one would think the park factors wouldn't be in his favor. But even if his ERA regresses toward his FIP, he shows that he is a strong SP candidate.

 

I also find it hard to believe the some people still say Houser should be in the BP. Neither of these guys are TOR starters but they have shown enough to be considered strong #3 or #4 level SPs (maybe #4/#5 for Lauer).

 

I think Lauer, given his younger age and the fact he's a lefty, actually has a higher upside than Houser. Houser might have slightly better raw stuff, but it's pretty close I'd say.

 

I wouldn't argue with that. I was looking more at where they are now and their performance to date as justification of being regular SPs in the league. Forward looking, Houser is pretty much peaked, while Lauer still is improving.

[BallFour]

Serious question.

 

What do Lauer and Houser lack to be number 2 type starters going forward? Is the strikeout numbers? Are their secondary pitches not good enough? I dont follow advanced stats enough to know.

 

For Houser his best pitch is his sinker, and it isn't even close. That pitch is devastating to right handers as he throws it 67% of the time to them and right handed hitters really can't do much with this pitch as it has an expected slugging percentage (XSLG) of .244. So essentially right handers know what is coming early in the count and they are pretty much powerless. His sinker is a top 10 pitch in baseball according to run value. What has made him passable vs. lefties this year is his 4 seam is getting way better results then last year left handed batters are slugging just .270 in 2021 vs. Houser's 4 seamer. Last year left handed batters had a .613 slugging percentage vs. the 4 seamer.

 

If we really want Houser's ceiling to go up, he will have to develop a better repertoire vs. lefties. If he can be above average vs. lefties look out. But I also think the above is a cautionary tale on FIP. Houser will never be a FIP darling his best pitch the sinker is not meant to generate swing and miss.

[sveumrules]

Serious question.

 

What do Lauer and Houser lack to be number 2 type starters going forward? Is the strikeout numbers? Are their secondary pitches not good enough? I dont follow advanced stats enough to know.

 

For Houser his best pitch is his sinker, and it isn't even close. That pitch is devastating to right handers as he throws it 67% of the time to them and right handed hitters really can't do much with this pitch as it has an expected slugging percentage (XSLG) of .244. So essentially right handers know what is coming early in the count and they are pretty much powerless. His sinker is a top 10 pitch in baseball according to run value. What has made him passable vs. lefties this year is his 4 seam is getting way better results then last year left handed batters are slugging just .270 in 2021 vs. Houser's 4 seamer. Last year left handed batters had a .613 slugging percentage vs. the 4 seamer.

 

If we really want Houser's ceiling to go up, he will have to develop a better repertoire vs. lefties. If he can be above average vs. lefties look out. But I also think the above is a cautionary tale on FIP. Houser will never be a FIP darling his best pitch the sinker is not meant to generate swing and miss.

 

Yeah, sinker heavy pitchers will always be at somewhat of a disadvantage for FIP because so many of their outs come on groundballs, though they typically do a better job of limiting HRs so that offsets it to a degree.

 

It's not impossible though. Obviously Brandon Webb was one of the most dominant sinkerballers in recent times & he posted a 77 FIP- for his career as he was still able to strike guys out at an above average clip (112 K%) and walk guys at a below average clip (91 BB%+) in addition to burning worms.

 

Logan Webb is doing it this year too with a 114 K%+ | 71 BB%+ | 50 HR9+ triple slash adding up to a 70 FIP- even with a higher ground ball percentage than Houser.

[CheezWizHed]

FIP takes into account HR, Ks, and BBs. Do any advanced metrics take into account balls hit off the bat and the likely outcome? With all the numbers we have available, seems like exit velocity and angle (in addition to the other three numbers) to create a bit more accuracy in the number. Certainly the pitcher's stuff does control (to an extent) whether they typically get soft or hard contact and groundball/flyball ratios.

[BallFour]

Serious question.

 

What do Lauer and Houser lack to be number 2 type starters going forward? Is the strikeout numbers? Are their secondary pitches not good enough? I dont follow advanced stats enough to know.

 

For Houser his best pitch is his sinker, and it isn't even close. That pitch is devastating to right handers as he throws it 67% of the time to them and right handed hitters really can't do much with this pitch as it has an expected slugging percentage (XSLG) of .244. So essentially right handers know what is coming early in the count and they are pretty much powerless. His sinker is a top 10 pitch in baseball according to run value. What has made him passable vs. lefties this year is his 4 seam is getting way better results then last year left handed batters are slugging just .270 in 2021 vs. Houser's 4 seamer. Last year left handed batters had a .613 slugging percentage vs. the 4 seamer.

 

If we really want Houser's ceiling to go up, he will have to develop a better repertoire vs. lefties. If he can be above average vs. lefties look out. But I also think the above is a cautionary tale on FIP. Houser will never be a FIP darling his best pitch the sinker is not meant to generate swing and miss.

 

Yeah, sinker heavy pitchers will always be at somewhat of a disadvantage for FIP because so many of their outs come on groundballs, though they typically do a better job of limiting HRs so that offsets it to a degree.

 

It's not impossible though. Obviously Brandon Webb was one of the most dominant sinkerballers in recent times & he posted a 77 FIP- for his career as he was still able to strike guys out at an above average clip (112 K%) and walk guys at a below average clip (91 BB%+) in addition to burning worms.

 

Logan Webb is doing it this year too with a 114 K%+ | 71 BB%+ | 50 HR9+ triple slash adding up to a 70 FIP- even with a higher ground ball percentage than Houser.

 

The difference though is Logan Webb has an incredible swing and miss pitch with his slider. Houser would really have to develop an out pitch. Hey you never know with the Brewers.

[sveumrules]

FIP takes into account HR, Ks, and BBs. Do any advanced metrics take into account balls hit off the bat and the likely outcome? With all the numbers we have available, seems like exit velocity and angle (in addition to the other three numbers) to create a bit more accuracy in the number. Certainly the pitcher's stuff does control (to an extent) whether they typically get soft or hard contact and groundball/flyball ratios.

 

SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) does include batted ball type in their formula & I believe the year to year correlation is slightly higher than FIP.

 

Among 126 starters with at least 80 IP here's how the Brewers stack up in SIERA....

 

Burnes 2.68 (2nd) Woodruff 3.34 (13th) Peralta 3.50 (16th) Anderson 4.34 (78th) Lauer 4.47 (89th) Houser 4.75 (106th)

[endaround]

Houser's lower ERA than FIP is a this year thing. As a starter in 2019, he had 4.57 ERA and a 4.22 FIP. So I would not project him outperforming his FIP going forward.

[brewcrewdue80]

B2b good starts and bullpen savers by Lauer. Great to see he can put up starts like he did for SD. And thus why felt great about his acquisition over sticking with Davies.

Fully understand his ERA is lower than expected but that should be the case with this year's defense right?

Houser meanwhile being a groundballer, is going to experience highs and lows in his starts. When he gets in trouble, often its a Walk and infield single sandwhiched with a seeing eye single and 1 well hit ball that inning for 2-4runs given up. I'm surprised Houser doesn't run 7IP outings more often because you'd think balls being put in play would lead to lower pitch counts. Im certain without a doubt Houser will get better and is better than Lauer. I am one that thinks about Houser in the Playoff bullpen just because he has success there, throws harder, induces groundballs that could induce double plays. Lauer isn't that same type. Just think in a Playoff series with current bullpen, adding Houser completely fills it out with Williams and Hader for a 7th/8th/9th innging finish. Houser has the experience where coming in the 6th with two runners on to induce a double play and keep in to bat to pitch the following inning is a plus.

 

It's just great that we know basically the 5man rotation heading in to next season. Plus Ashby. You put Houser or Lauer up as trade potentials if it nets you a filled offensive spot of need. And immediately you wouldn't be mad. This team is in a good place moving forward.