No bang for our outfield bucks

[JohnBriggs12]

They are spending a ton of money on the outfield and the big money guys are being outproduced by a couple of minimum salary guys. Stearns obviously undervalued Taylor as he's done with other guys drafted by the previous regime. Garcia comes off the books after this year. Maybe they should just make room for Taylor and not look back.

[timpep]

A player can be a defensive signing and still be expected to at least have some offensive output. The idea that you can't complain about JBJ's offense because he's better at defense is kind of interesting to me. If Stearns thought he was going to carry an OBA under .275 or whatever it is atm he wouldn't have signed him. I have faith that he'll turn it around some but to say that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter just isn't reality in my opinion.

[PeaveyFury]

but to say that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter just isn't reality in my opinion.

 

Who said that?

[MrTPlush]

but to say that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter just isn't reality in my opinion.

 

Who said that?

 

It was been inferred endlessly any time someone complains about the offense. It is basically something along the lines of, "This is a pitching and defense first team."

 

That is true, but I don't think the people that are complaining are mad the team isn't Top 3 in baseball when it comes to offense. I think they are upset a plethora of Stearns acquisitions/FA signings have been brutal. Bradley Jr. has been pretty terrible and Garcia has been terrible dating back to last year. Additionally, Garcia really isn't a defense first player. He was signed to hit. While Bradley Jr is a nice defensive player I don't think there is any chance he was signed with expectations less than at least average offensively.

 

Its early, but its understandable people are upset we aren't getting more out of these guys. $20mil+ for no offense out of them is pretty brutal as both were signed to improve our offense and in theory probably provide some stability in the line up. Neither has done that in there time here yet. Stearns has got to find way to efficiently find offense if he wants a pitching/defense first team. Last year it was a bit rough and this year has not started off too promising.

 

Hopefully guys like Bradley Jr/Shaw/Garcia can turn it around and be a bit more reliable with the bat in their hands.

[jjfanec]

I agree our OF is not producing what it is paid to produce. JBJ gets more time in my mind. There are some really good players around the league struggling right now. One of JBJ huge issues is the lack of walks obviously. He has always struck out too much but has walked 1/3rd to 2/5th of the times he struck out. He is at 1/27th. If he gets the walks up I think he will trend back toward a .750 or so OPS guy. If he does that with his defense we are in good shape.

 

Garcia just seems prone to super long draughts. He was getting pretty unlucky to start the year and his BABIP is still low for what you would expect. At the same time the last week plus his at bats have just looked awful.

 

Taylor has obviously earned starts but at the same time at least one of Garcia or JBJ is going to need to turn it around for this team.

[sveumrules]

Coming into the season ZiPS projected JBJ for a 94 OPS+ & Avisail for a 98, I'm guessing that is in the neighborhood of what Stearns & company were hoping for as well.

 

Sure, they haven't hit up to those levels so far. At the same time there are over a hundred Aprils that have shown us guys who drastically over or under achieve are more likely to revert to their career norms than to continue at outlier levels.

 

This is doubly good because the poor hitting (though still average over all contribution from our OF by WAR) both hasn't hindered us from winning & will likely improve signifigantly as the season progresses through the remaining 85%.

[PeaveyFury]

but to say that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter just isn't reality in my opinion.

 

Who said that?

 

It was been inferred endlessly any time someone complains about the offense. It is basically something along the lines of, "This is a pitching and defense first team."

 

Inferred doesn't equal said, and you're making a huge leap on their behalf. Not a single person who accurately recognizes that this team was built based on pitching and defense believes that offense doesn't matter. That wasn't what was claimed, and wasn't even the the discussion that was taking place until your and timpep's posts.

[areacodes]

Saying we have a team built around pitching and defense in response to complaints about production from the players who typically derive more value from their defense is not implying that the offense doesn’t matter.

 

ETA: looks like Peavey beat me to it.

[MrTPlush]

Inferred doesn't equal said, and you're making a huge leap on their behalf. Not a single person who accurately recognizes that this team was built based on pitching and defense believes that offense doesn't matter. That wasn't what was claimed, and wasn't even the the discussion that was taking place until your and timpep's posts.

 

Not necessarily saying people truly believe it doesn't matter at all....just that any time someone wants to critique something offense related many want to shoot it down as a topic because the team isn't made to score 5.5 runs a game.

 

Now if people want to discount it a bit because it is April 28th, fair enough, but many times the argument or a large part of the argument is the fact the team is defense/pitching first. I don't think that is an excuse to not question how we spent $20+mil on guys that can't get their OPS over .700 or didn't spend money on guys with more legitimate offensive track records.

[PeaveyFury]

Inferred doesn't equal said, and you're making a huge leap on their behalf. Not a single person who accurately recognizes that this team was built based on pitching and defense believes that offense doesn't matter. That wasn't what was claimed, and wasn't even the the discussion that was taking place until your and timpep's posts.

 

Not necessarily saying people truly believe it doesn't matter at all....just that any time someone wants to critique something offense related many want to shoot it down as a topic because the team isn't made to score 5.5 runs a game.

 

So to be clear, this isn't what people are actually saying. I think you're unfairly taking the point people are making regarding the makeup of the team and taking it further than people intend it to go.

[MrTPlush]

Saying we have a team built around pitching and defense in response to complaints about production from the players who typically derive more value from their defense is not implying that the offense doesn’t matter.

 

ETA: looks like Peavey beat me to it.

 

Who are those players though?

 

Avisail Garcia? Definitely not

Jackie Bradley Jr? A good part is expected to be defense, but you don't spend $13mil for good, but not elite CF defense. Billy Hamilton can't even get a MLB deal in the winter.

Luis Urias? His defense is fine, but that isn't a defensive first player.

Keston Hiura? Definitely not

3B? No

Yelich? No

Cain? At this point in his career, probably yes

Omar Narvaez? No

Wong? Probably a good chunk of why we got him

 

Defense or not we signed a guy like Bradley Jr. to probably have an OPS around .725. Garcia they were probably hoping for closer to .750. Obviously both of those guys are well below those figures. Defense should be taken out of the equation when we look at their offense. Are these guys hitting like we expected them to or not? For many of them...no, not even close. Obviously that bar is set much lower for a defensive guy like Bradley Jr., but even he is underperforming by a lot so far. Just because you are good on defense doesn't mean you can just hit for a .450 OPS and not be a problem offensively.

[timpep]

but to say that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter just isn't reality in my opinion.

 

Who said that?

 

Well when someone complains about offense and this is what happens..

 

I don't get this idea that we shouldn't complain about the offense or lack of it because of the fact that the pitching has carried the team to a solid record so far.

 

Because that's literally how the team was designed to operate this year.

 

 

I feel like you are kind of saying that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter. If their offense isn't something that should be allowed to be complained about, I guess it seems to me like you're saying it doesn't matter. Maybe I misinterpreted.

[PeaveyFury]

I feel like you are kind of saying that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter.

 

No, I am not. That's your interpretation, not what I said or intended to say.

[NievesNoNO]

Just because JBJ and Wong were valued more because of their defense doesn't mean every move on the roster needs to be defensively motivated. Value is value. Hiura, if he's hitting the way he can, would be valuable despite his defense. Unfortunately he's not hitting the way he can, so he doesn't have the defense to fall back on.

...........................

Agree.... value is value. The Brewers found value and got rather good players with lead off hitter Wong and JBJ.

I don’t agree with the idea that the Brewers were all about defense this offseason or the signings of JBJ and Wong were first and foremost about defense. If JBJ continues to do what he is doing with the bat, he simply won’t play until late innings when winning.

 

I agree, that I don't believe the Brewers went into the offseason prioritizing defense, it's just kind of where the value (to them) lead.

 

As to the original post, I can't argue that they aren't currently getting 50 million worth of production. I don't necessarily agree that it's misspent money though. Yelich is hurt; when he's not, well he's been the MVP. Garcia, I believe Stearns saw some level of untapped upside there. I think he's about league average and will have positive regression yet. I'm not sure on the upside but sometimes those are gambles worth taking. Cain: Yes, he's aging. We have a pretty short memory sometimes. There weren't many arguments 3 years ago. But you see that's what free agent dollars many time gets you, the back half of a good career. The Brewers can only do that so many times, perhaps that's why they didn't "sell out" for adding a bat this off-season. JBJ, is a good baseball player. Better defensively obviously, but I also think he as some positive regression coming there. I also think he was brought in as a level of insurance for Cain.

 

All in all, I think this group by the end of the year will have provided a good amout of value and wins. It's going to be a good season.

[liveforoctober]

Saying we have a team built around pitching and defense in response to complaints about production from the players who typically derive more value from their defense is not implying that the offense doesn’t matter.

 

ETA: looks like Peavey beat me to it.

 

Who are those players though?

 

Avisail Garcia? Definitely not

Jackie Bradley Jr? A good part is expected to be defense, but you don't spend $13mil for good, but not elite CF defense. Billy Hamilton can't even get a MLB deal in the winter.

Luis Urias? His defense is fine, but that isn't a defensive first player.

Keston Hiura? Definitely not

3B? No

Yelich? No

Cain? At this point in his career, probably yes

Omar Narvaez? No

Wong? Probably a good chunk of why we got him

 

Defense or not we signed a guy like Bradley Jr. to probably have an OPS around .725. Garcia they were probably hoping for closer to .750. Obviously both of those guys are well below those figures. Defense should be taken out of the equation when we look at their offense. Are these guys hitting like we expected them to or not? For many of them...no, not even close. Obviously that bar is set much lower for a defensive guy like Bradley Jr., but even he is underperforming by a lot so far. Just because you are good on defense doesn't mean you can just hit for a .450 OPS and not be a problem offensively.

 

I think a little perspective might be necessary for this convo. With both the guys mentioned above and the OPS we are hopeful they will achieve, is the difference of 6 hits, given the number of at bats each has gotten.

 

If Garcia and JBJ both had 6 more hits they would roughly be around those numbers. Annoyance is fine right now, criticism is maybe a bit early. Just my opinion.

[sveumrules]

As of today FanGraphs has our outfield worth 1.0 WAR (14th in MLB), despite hitting well below their career norms to this point.

 

Spotrac has us down for the 11th most expensive outfield in MLB this year.

 

So far, we have been getting roughly commensurate value for our buck, even with a noticeable lack of bang.

 

As Yelich & Cain hopefully return, & guys like JBJ & Avi likely hit closer to their career norms as the season goes on that value should only increase.

[timpep]

I feel like you are kind of saying that the offense of good defensive players doesn't matter.

 

No, I am not. That's your interpretation, not what I said or intended to say.

 

Well if the offense isn't something we should complain about because the team is built on pitching and defense what are you saying? Yeah, there was some hyperbole on my behalf but I don't think I'm far off.

 

I used your quote as an example because you're the one who jumped on me, but there are many here who immediately talk about pitching and defense when a seriously underperforming player is pointed out. It's OK to criticize defensive first players if they aren't hitting they way they are paid to. There is a reason we signed JBJ instead of Keon Broxton.

[monty57]

As a team, the Brewers have scored the 5th most runs in the National League. How is that a below average offense? Is it because they are not scoring runs the Earl Weaver way, via the 3-run HR?

 

They have good pitching, probably the best defense in baseball (even with Hiura/Vogelbach at 1B and Wong and Cain missing time due to injuries), and have scored the 5th most runs in the NL. That's why they're in first place.

 

As to the point of the thread, which is our outfield and how they are playing vs what they're being paid, I agree that we aren't getting enough out of them. Of course, we have played most of the season with at least 2/3 of our projected starters on the injured list. Many argued when Cain was signed that the last few seasons would be overpays, and that's probably what's going to happen this year. Bradley was likely signed because of concerns over Cain. They need to figure out what's wrong with Yelich and get him back on the field.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't think I'm far off.

 

But unfortunately, you're still making your own interpretations, with incorrect conclusions.

 

To summarize my actual point:

 

- 'The team was built on pitching and defense' seems an accurate conclusion of what happened this offseason.

- 'Build on pitching and defense' doesn't mean that offense doesn't matter.

- 'Not complaining about the offense' is equal parts because it's too early (small sample) to draw any actual conclusions about anything, players can be expected to perform closer to their career norms as time goes by, and that their contribution to the team is still significant because of their huge defensive value, which aids in what the team's goal was for the year.

 

I think the bigger issue is that at numerous points in the thread, people have cited the money spent on these players and said that the investment shows that the Brewers prioritized offense when those players were more likely targeted for their defensive prowess. People seem to be missing the mark regarding intent there, hence the point made above.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Regardless of how spectacular the Brewers' defense and pitching has been so far this season, how many posters would have said the Brewers would be in 1st place in their division at the end of April if they knew they would get essentially zero offense out of Hiura and both Cain/Yelich were going to be hampered/out with injuries well more than half of the month?

 

And in agreement with the previous post - scoring is down in general across the league to start the year, even more than 2020 and over half a run/game/team compared to 2019. Whether this is small sample size ready to regress towards more scoring as weather warms up and hitters get back to the typical season routine or its further evidence of pitching outpacing hitters in terms of success remains to be seen....either way, the Brewers are far from the only team with offensive question marks 1 month into the season.

[MrTPlush]

I think the bigger issue is that at numerous points in the thread, people have cited the money spent on these players and said that the investment shows that the Brewers prioritized offense when those players were more likely targeted for their defensive prowess. People seem to be missing the mark regarding intent there, hence the point made above.

 

Most of the critiquing is largely aimed at Garcia and Bradley Jr. though. Garcia was definitely acquired for offense and I am not sure why Bradley Jr. wouldn't be viewed the same way. Why would they spend $13mil on Lorenzo Cain defense insurance? Could have done that for $1mil. We already had an expensive likely defense only CFer in Cain...we didn't need another guy that was similar.

[timpep]

" their contribution to the team is still significant because of their huge defensive value, which aids in what the team's goal was for the year."

 

I apologize. To me that statement you just made seems to imply their offensive struggles don't matter (or at least don't matter enough to complain about) because "their contribution to the team is still significant because of their huge defensive value, which aids in what the team's goal was for the year."

 

I won't continue it further because I intended to make one point about how even defensive guys have offensive expectations they need to meet, not get into some weird argument about phrasing. I still don't understand what got you so fired up about what I said to be honest, but I'm sorry for continuing to not quite get how what you are saying doesn't imply what I thought it did originally. I guess sometimes I just miss the obvious and this must be one of those times.

[Simba2020]

It's just hard to comprehend how bad hitters are in today's game. Or maybe it's just due to the pitching. Either way, the MLB average for batting is an anemic .232. We probably have higher expectations for hitters but it just isn't reality these days and expectations probably need to be adjusted accordingly.

 

That being said, I had zero faith in the Garcia signing last year as I think he just lives off his 2017 season. Not worth that kind of money. And I really didn't like the JBJ signing. He never has hit for average outside of the shortened 2020 season and never will. He definitely is doing about what I expected. Signing him instead of just releasing Taylor never made no sense to me as long as the assumption was that Cain was coming back this year which he did.

 

Spending money on Wong made great sense because he is an underrated offensive player at his position, plays great defense and allowed a worthless fielder to move to another position where he could also be worthless defensively but at a less important position.

[owbc]

The assumption about defense-first acquisitions is completely wrong. We paid for top-10 bats at both CF and 2B based on oWAR position rankings. Are the Brewers valuing defense more than a few years ago? Maybe. The simplest answer may be that there's a limited supply of FA available in any given year and the cost-benefit analysis penciled out for JBJ and Wong.

[owbc]

It's just hard to comprehend how bad hitters are in today's game. Or maybe it's just due to the pitching. Either way, the MLB average for batting is an anemic .232. We probably have higher expectations for hitters but it just isn't reality these days and expectations probably need to be adjusted accordingly.

 

I mentioned this in another thread, but even with the obsession with exit velocity and launch angle, BABIP has dropped to the lowest it has been since the late 1980s. MLB hitters are fully capable of not striking out and putting balls in play if they wanted to, but with defensive shifting it doesn't make sense to do that.