Prospective trade deadline targets?

[wntrtxn21]

Don't trade any of our pitching. This isn't that hard. Pitching wins games. Yes, you need to find offense but pitching is just so much harder to find. I feel like some fans need to go really look back on some teams the Brewers had that had just awful pitching to really understand what their brain should be telling them.

100% agree with this. Overpay for quality hitters and take on a big contract to lessen the cost in prospects (Nicholas Castellanos and Josh Donaldson), and do whatever it takes to compliment the Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta TOR.

 

I wonder what the Reds thoughts are on Castellanos right now? Do they view themselves as contenders or would they be willing to get out of that contract if the opportunity came along? I would be very willing to take on Castellanos entire salary (2 years $34m minimum after 2021, assuming he doesn't opt out after 2021) if the Reds were willing to move him. Heck, I would take on Moose as well (2 years $38m) if the Brewer can't get Donaldson. Give them Garcia and his $2m buyout and lesser prospects for those big contracts.

 

The way I see it, those contracts should not inhibit the Brewers from possibly signing or extending Burnes or Woodruff as Moose and Castellanos both expire after 2023 and Burnes and Woodruff aren't FA until after 2024.

 

It's easy to say you would take on $36M for 2022-2023 when money is no object. Unfortunately for the Brewers, money doesn't grow on trees. Yelich's contract goes up by $12M, they still have Cain at $18M plus JBJ at $13M. If you add the Reds players you want those two plus Yelich-Cain-JBJ almost equal the Brewers payroll for this year alone. Wong is making $8.5M and they will re-sign Narvaez if he keeps hitting. Not to mention the arby guys who will be getting some good size jumps in pay.

[Warning Track Power]

Don't trade any of our pitching. This isn't that hard. Pitching wins games. Yes, you need to find offense but pitching is just so much harder to find. I feel like some fans need to go really look back on some teams the Brewers had that had just awful pitching to really understand what their brain should be telling them.

100% agree with this. Overpay for quality hitters and take on a big contract to lessen the cost in prospects (Nicholas Castellanos and Josh Donaldson), and do whatever it takes to compliment the Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta TOR.

 

I wonder what the Reds thoughts are on Castellanos right now? Do they view themselves as contenders or would they be willing to get out of that contract if the opportunity came along? I would be very willing to take on Castellanos entire salary (2 years $34m minimum after 2021, assuming he doesn't opt out after 2021) if the Reds were willing to move him. Heck, I would take on Moose as well (2 years $38m) if the Brewer can't get Donaldson. Give them Garcia and his $2m buyout and lesser prospects for those big contracts.

 

The way I see it, those contracts should not inhibit the Brewers from possibly signing or extending Burnes or Woodruff as Moose and Castellanos both expire after 2023 and Burnes and Woodruff aren't FA until after 2024.

 

It's easy to say you would take on $36M for 2022-2023 when money is no object. Unfortunately for the Brewers, money doesn't grow on trees. Yelich's contract goes up by $12M, they still have Cain at $18M plus JBJ at $13M. If you add the Reds players you want those two plus Yelich-Cain-JBJ almost equal the Brewers payroll for this year alone. Wong is making $8.5M and they will re-sign Narvaez if he keeps hitting. Not to mention the arby guys who will be getting some good size jumps in pay.

The larger points I am trying to make are:

 

1. The NL Central, and maybe the entire NL, is there for the taking with no true powerhouse save maybe the Dodgers.

2. If this isn't the time to be pushing the payroll, when you have three potential aces on cheap contracts, then when is the time right?

3. The poor performance of the lineup as constructed necessitates change. Unfortunately, with the farm still in poor condition, they will have to spend their way into quality hitters be it FA or trade.

4. Similar to #3 above, due to the poor condition of the farm, the Brewers can't offer top end prospects, so they will have to spend in dollars. Taking on contracts is likely necessary.

 

I get that it isn't my money, nor do I have access to cash flow. However, the Brewers have quite the opportunity to be truly special with the pitching they have, especially when it's as cheap as it is. I do not want to see them blow this opportunity.

[MadThinker88]

San Diego had a roster crunch due to an influx of prospect talent needing to be added to the 40 man roster the past 2 years. That lead them to many trades in 2019 & 2020.

 

Tampa & Cleveland have similar issues later this year. Perhaps there are a few other teams in that situation as well (someone else would need to research that).

 

There might be some talent available from those clubs in the right deal

[adambr2]

San Diego had a roster crunch due to an influx of prospect talent needing to be added to the 40 man roster the past 2 years.

 

What the heck is that like? I feel like we have at least 10 or 15 on our 40 that could be dumped tomorrow and never be missed.

[MadThinker88]

San Diego had a roster crunch due to an influx of prospect talent needing to be added to the 40 man roster the past 2 years. That lead them to many trades in 2019 & 2020.

 

Tampa & Cleveland have similar issues later this year. Perhaps there are a few other teams in that situation as well (someone else would need to research that).

 

There might be some talent available from those clubs in the right deal

 

What the heck is that like? I feel like we have at least 10 or 15 on our 40 that could be dumped tomorrow and never be missed.

 

First... I did not expect a MKE deal with Tampa this quick...

 

As for your question:

Cleveland has roughly 20 good prospects needing to be added to the 40 man by the R5 deadline this year & a number are found on various top 10/ top 30 prospect lists.

For quick reference:

8 of MLB pipeline top 30

5 of Baseball Prospectus top 17

4 on ESPN top 10

6 on Keith Law top 20

9 on Baseball America system top 40

17 on Fangraphs top 49)

Additionally some overall top 100 prospects from CLE (Espino/ Bo Naylor/ Nolan Jones/Triston McKenzie) are not part of those numbers..

When you have a truly deep farm system, these are the interesting situations you get into.

 

As for what its like, ask me again in January 2022. I will have a better sense at that point after witnessing what moves are made/ not made with CLE

[PeaveyFury]

The Brewers made their SS move. Presumably, they’ll shuffle deck chairs with Urias and Shaw now, hopefully to minimize ABs for interchangeable 27th man-type guys, but they’re still going to need to make a move at either 1B or 3B, IMO.

 

So, where to from here?

[rickh150]

And Hiura will be back if he keeps hitting.....

[roadcrew3]

Hiura will end up being the key to the rest of this season. Without him, there are just to many holes in the lineup to fill externally. Him coming back and producing though makes it much easier for the team to add a piece at the deadline and become a true contender.

[brewmann04]

The Key is getting rid of Haines and the other Coach Cruz.

[adambr2]

Hiura will end up being the key to the rest of this season. Without him, there are just to many holes in the lineup to fill externally. Him coming back and producing though makes it much easier for the team to add a piece at the deadline and become a true contender.

 

It's Hiura and Yelich for sure. They hit, we're a playoff team.

 

They don't, we can spin our wheels on other moves all we want and it won't matter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Key is getting rid of Haines and the other Coach Cruz.

 

Nah, the actual key is hitters on this team performing how they are capable of performing. If it takes a coaching staff shakeup, fine, whatever, but let's not act like firing Haines and Cruz is going to suddenly wake this offense up. The improvement is going to have to come from several players in this lineup getting hot. Yelich needs to find his 2018-19 self, and Hiura has to be able to hit fastballs. Haines and Cruz's continued employment being terminated is low-hanging fruit that may appease a few fans in the short term, but isn't going to mean much of anything in the whole scheme of the season.

[TURBO]

If hitting coaches have no value, and have no bearing on hitters performance, then why do we employ them?

 

I get it, they probably don't have the impact on individual players like the casual fan thinks, but if they are as meaningless as some here think, then why bother having the positions on a MLB team.

 

I have to think they serve an important purpose of some kind.

 

Do they study the opposing pitchers, then share information with our hitters? If so, maybe Haines is just horrible at that part of his job.

 

I think the prudent thing to do is dump Haines, see if some new eyes can change some things and go from there.

 

If hitting coaches are as worthless as people are saying, it won't matter anyway, but we have to try something.

[sveumrules]

This is all unfortunate but it is needed in light of Stearns whiffing on several draft picks.

 

Corey Ray= Bust

 

Keston Hiura = Awful defense and trending toward a bust on offense.

 

Turang = Escobar and Arcia part III?

 

Small = Ceiling is a 3 or 4 starter?

 

I mean if your a small market team, you just cannot whiff on 1st round picks like that.

 

The only one of those four that looks like a whiff at this point is Ray. For the rest its still a little early to say.

 

Even with hus struggles, Hiura has made more of an MLB impact (0.9 WAR) than any of the first round position players picked after him in 2017...Jo Adell (-1.5 WAR), Evan White (-0.4 WAR) or Brent Rooker (-0.6 WAR).

 

Turang could end up Escobar/Arcia part III, though he's shown a much better approach with a 15% walk rate so far in the minors compared 5.3% for Alcides & 7.5% for Orlando, that's a pretty notable difference.

 

Small was drafted #28. Anybody projected as a 1/2 starter is typically off the board by then. If Ethan ends up a 3/4 starter that would hardly be a whiff.

[RollieTime]

If hitting coaches have no value, and have no bearing on hitters performance, then why do we employ them?

 

I get it, they probably don't have the impact on individual players like the casual fan thinks, but if they are as meaningless as some here think, then why bother having the positions on a MLB team.

 

I have to think they serve an important purpose of some kind.

 

Do they study the opposing pitchers, then share information with our hitters? If so, maybe Haines is just horrible at that part of his job.

 

I think the prudent thing to do is dump Haines, see if some new eyes can change some things and go from there.

 

If hitting coaches are as worthless as people are saying, it won't matter anyway, but we have to try something.

 

I do find it strange that people are reluctant to place any blame on Stearns or Haines. I personally have not been a huge fan of some of the players targeted in free agency and have mentioned others I would have targeted. Also, Haines obviously serves some purpose or they wouldn’t have a role on the team as a hitting coach. Whether it’s fixing things at the plate, making players do adjustments, providing them information on pitchers. Something isn’t working and it’s just too many players that have come here only to struggle below career norms.

 

There has to be some blame somewhere and it can’t strictly be on the players. If one or two guys were struggling, that’s one thing. An organizational problem is on somebody not doing something or providing information that isn’t helping the players.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not absolving Haines from any blame. But at the same time, I believe that saying that getting rid of him and Cruz is the "key" is kind of a fallacy as well. Perhaps a new voice is needed, but nothing is going to change unless a good portion of this lineup decides to change their approach.

[Eye Black]

This is all unfortunate but it is needed in light of Stearns whiffing on several draft picks.

 

Corey Ray= Bust

 

Keston Hiura = Awful defense and trending toward a bust on offense.

 

Turang = Escobar and Arcia part III?

 

Small = Ceiling is a 3 or 4 starter?

 

I mean if your a small market team, you just cannot whiff on 1st round picks like that.

 

The only one of those four that looks like a whiff at this point is Ray. For the rest its still a little early to say.

 

Even with hus struggles, Hiura has made more of an MLB impact (0.9 WAR) than any of the first round position players picked after him in 2017...Jo Adell (-1.5 WAR), Evan White (-0.4 WAR) or Brent Rooker (-0.6 WAR).

 

Turang could end up Escobar/Arcia part III, though he's shown a much better approach with a 15% walk rate so far in the minors compared 5.3% for Alcides & 7.5% for Orlando, that's a pretty notable difference.

 

Small was drafted #28. Anybody projected as a 1/2 starter is typically off the board by then. If Ethan ends up a 3/4 starter that would hardly be a whiff.

If we’re going to criticize the Ray pick (which is fair, but that 1st round has turned out to be a bust for many teams), then we should probably mention they took Mario Feliciano in the 2nd round and Corbin Burnes in the 4th round of that same draft. On the whole that is looking like a decent draft even with the Ray pick.

 

Also, I don’t believe Stearns has a lot to do with the amateur evaluation side of things for the draft. I don’t know that for certain, but a lot of GMs take a backseat to the scouting director when in comes to the MLB Draft.

[titletownking]

It was very nice to see the bats get going today, acquisition of Willy Adames makes this a much better lineup. I would have to think Stearns main goal at the trade deadline has to be to acquire a better bat at 3rd. Shaw has a wRC+ of 80, league average is 100. Maybe Escobar or Seager who are both sporting a 100+ wRC+ or the pipe dream of Story. Either way this team is close, just need a couple bullpen arms and a bat at 3rd. Who do you guys like? I’ve been pulling for both Escobar and Seager for a few years now.

[titletownking]

Also add Jeimer Candelario as a very interesting option. wRC+ of 115 and the plus side of getting him out of Comerica and into Am Fam Fields but would be costly as he is still under team control for 3 years.

 

Adam Frazier would be another option assuming he can move over from 2nd to 3rd. Has 1 year of control after the season and would be a top of the lineup bat. Not sure he fits with the Pirates rebuilding cycle. Has a wRC+ of 140 right now which probably isn’t sustainable but has been a career above average hitter and would represent a tremendous improvement at 3rd.

[adambr2]

I think Candelario was discussed early in this thread too. I would for sure be in favor.

[titletownking]

I think Candelario was discussed early in this thread too. I would for sure be in favor.

 

I’ve been bringing him up for almost a year and people keep responding with “why would the tigers trade him away”. Well nobody expects to get him for nothing but we can’t deny that he would be a long term solution at the hot corner.

[Outlander]

He return is likely lesser as Candelario gets more expensive and team control gets smaller, now at 2 years after this season.

[adambr2]

If the cost on Adames was a pair of decent but not elite relief pitchers, I don't see why Candelario should be prohibitively expensive.

[Jopal78]

If the cost on Adames was a pair of decent but not elite relief pitchers, I don't see why Candelario should be prohibitively expensive.

 

Based up your subjective take that Feyereisen and Rasmussen are merely “decent”.

 

The Rays obviously think more of JP as he stepped right into a late inning role and nailed down a save when their regular closer was down due to usage. I can get behind Rasmussen as “decent” now, but then again, he’s the pitching prospect in this deal. I think everyone can agree if he keeps his arm healthy he has potential to be more than decent.

 

So if that’s the “cost” for Adames, a major league late inning reliever and a major league ready power arm pitching prospect, both pre-arbitration eligible, what would the real “cost” of Candelario be?

 

I’m sure he’s available but at the cost of maybe Devin Williams or multiple minor league pitching prospects, it’s probably not worth it.

[MrTPlush]

I doubt Candelario is that expensive. While controllable he doesn't have a huge track record of even average stats. He had a really nice shortened 2020 thanks to a high average and a huge .503 slugging percentage. His career average is .241 and his career slugging percentage is .396. His slugging is back down to .404 this year so now his OPS is down to .760. His BABIP is off the charts like it was last year (.377), thus his average is still pretty high (.283). That is a crazy high BABIP and nowhere near his career .306 BABIP.

 

Maybe he is a decent starter, but pretty good chance that BABIP nosedives and takes his stats with it. I would venture to bet Adames is more valuable.

[adambr2]

If the cost on Adames was a pair of decent but not elite relief pitchers, I don't see why Candelario should be prohibitively expensive.

 

Based up your subjective take that Feyereisen and Rasmussen are merely “decent”.

 

The Rays obviously think more of JP as he stepped right into a late inning role and nailed down a save when their regular closer was down due to usage. I can get behind Rasmussen as “decent” now, but then again, he’s the pitching prospect in this deal. I think everyone can agree if he keeps his arm healthy he has potential to be more than decent.

 

So if that’s the “cost” for Adames, a major league late inning reliever and a major league ready power arm pitching prospect, both pre-arbitration eligible, what would the real “cost” of Candelario be?

 

I’m sure he’s available but at the cost of maybe Devin Williams or multiple minor league pitching prospects, it’s probably not worth it.

 

"Decent but not elite" seems like a pretty fair description of JP and Rasmussen given the cumulative weighing of their abilities and track records, and I like both. I'm not sure how one would non-subjectively use that description, so yes, it is in my subjective opinion.

 

To add to that, Adames is worth more than Candelario. He's younger, he's got a better overall MLB track record and he plays a more premium defensive position. Detroit likely isn't targeting MLB ready talent, although I'm sure they'd be interested in Devin, but that shouldn't even be considered if they ask. Whether or not Candelario should be acquired would depend to me on which specific player or prospects the Tigers would be seeking in return.