Prospective trade deadline targets?

[sveumrules]

Splits - He bats .209 vs .244 - Still not very good.

 

What about his OBP/SLG though?

 

119 wRC+ career vs lefties, 115 wRC+ career vs righties.

 

Maybe not very good, but 15 to 20 percent above average across the board.

[brewcrewdue80]

If we can get Donaldson, and I wouldn't trade Urias to do it, Urias becomes your 1st up off the bench at 2b, SS, and 3b. I'd take that upgrade over Jace on top of Donaldson's upgrade to the lineup. Donaldson must be 1 of top 3 batters who are in the top 10% of categories measured. Look up his page and it's littered with 90s including 99 for EV, 95 for Walk % 92 for expected Slg pct. of his 16HRs all but 4 stadiums would be a higher total (18 in MKE, 20 in LA, 23 in SD, 21 in SF, 18 in NYM)

 

For reference, Avisail Garcia has 17HRs leading the team and at every stadium but SF suggests he should have less. Our next highest HR total is Urias at 13 who has 5 stadiums where that number would be higher but only in MKE and lower in the other 4 current playoff teams. Urias also doesn't possess 1 single statcast pct above 55% except 76 for walk %.

 

Donaldson was who Milw should have signed to pair with Yelich and he's still worthy of being used in this lineup the most.

 

Other than him, I don't know who I would add. Gallo has some great hitting numbers via statcast but also a bottom 5% of those qualified(Hiura apparently doesn't) in K% and Whiff %. Worse than JBJ. And Gallo is #1 in BB %. So you're talking about a guy who legit spends 51% of his PA not putting the ball in play. (Donaldson is at 34% not doing so) We need more Batted balls in play on this team for all the guys who are getting on base via walks.

[mlloyd10]

Splits - He bats .209 vs .244 - Still not very good.

 

What about his OBP/SLG though?

 

119 wRC+ career vs lefties, 115 wRC+ career vs righties.

 

Maybe not very good, but 15 to 20 percent above average across the board.

 

I'm not denying that he wouldnt be an upgrade, all i can think of when i hear his name is a young Mark Reynolds.

[StearnsFTW]

Splits - He bats .209 vs .244 - Still not very good.

 

What about his OBP/SLG though?

 

119 wRC+ career vs lefties, 115 wRC+ career vs righties.

 

Maybe not very good, but 15 to 20 percent above average across the board.

 

I'm not denying that he wouldnt be an upgrade, all i can think of when i hear his name is a young Mark Reynolds.

 

Reynolds was never the OBP guy Gallo is. Nor the baserunner, nor the fielder.

 

Edit: I'm comparing young Reynolds to current Gallo, not their whole careers.

[Dresden files]

I just cant get behind the HR, Strike out or Walk guys. I do like that Gallo can play D but i would rather go after a bat that puts the ball in play more then 50% of the time.

[brewerfan82]

Just to compare Reynolds and Gallo...

 

Reynolds 2007-09 (he pretty much peaked his first 3 years):

 

Gallo 2018-21:

 

Not a horrible comparison. That said, Reynolds was very good his first three years (ie. I would be happy adding that kind of production to the team), and Gallo still almost doubled his WAR in 200 fewer PAs in this comparison. Also note that Reynolds' numbers were probably helped by a high BABIP, which may have explained some of his decline after these three years. Whereas Gallo's low BABIP could lead to better results moving forward.

[SeaBass]

Gallo also doesn't have a lot of quality hitters around him in that lineup, there are a couple but the guys that are bad are real bad. The Brewers lineup is more balanced in that respect. The lineup wouldn't be as dependent on Gallo and would provide him more protection. Likely make his walks more valuable as well by bringing him around to score more often. Maybe NL ball with the pitcher batting negates that advantage a bit but only in the early innings.

[Simba2020]

I too am one, well actually there are very few it seems, that do not want Gallo. I'm too old school and like guys that can actually hit for average but I realize the game has evolved away from that, unfortunately. I just think too many of you view him as a corner infielder guy and I just don't think that is all that realistic. He was a train wreck at third and not very good at first either.

[owbc]

Somebody is going to overpay for Gallo and it won't be us, there is already a rumor that Texas is sitting on a big offer.

[Jopal78]

Stranger things have happened but judging by who the Brewers have traded at the deadline, I wouldn't expect Joey Gallo or any other player under control for 2022 that would require a large amount of talent from Milwaukee.

 

Brett Phillips

Jorge Lopez

Jean Carmona

Luis Ortiz

Jonathan Villar

Jesus Aguilar

Mauricio Dubon

Kodi Medeiros

Wilber Perez

Ryan Cordell

[PeaveyFury]

and not very good at first either.

 

I don’t disagree that he’s no longer a third base option, but what data are you citing to support a claim of poor performance at first?

[PeaveyFury]

Stranger things have happened but judging by who the Brewers have traded at the deadline

 

This seems like an unusual way to judge potential deadline deals. First, many of those players DID have modest value when traded. Second, I’m not sure you can judge any potential deals based on historical deals because we don’t know what other deals they considered previously, whether they judge their playoff chances differently now vs the past, hence a greater willingness to make a bigger deal, etc.

[brewerfan82]

Stearns/Arnold have done a great job of continuously improving the team throughout the year already and not just waiting until the deadline. So I'm with those that recognize some of the "deadline" deals for this team are ones that have already occurred. Because of that, this is already a pretty different team than the one that began the season.

 

Some MLB rankings since the Adames trade:

 

C (11th in fWAR, 20th in wRC+)

1B (16th in fWAR, 21st in wRC+)

2B (11th in fWAR, 7th in wRC+)

3B (15th in fWAR, 14th in wRC+)

SS (2nd in fWAR, 3rd in wRC+)

LF (7th in fWAR, 10th in wRC+)

CF (23rd in fWAR, 29th in wRC+)

RF (8th in fWAR, 9th in wRC+)

 

SP (2nd in fWAR, 2nd in ERA)

RP (16th in fWAR, 8th in ERA)

 

Hopefully some combination of Cain returning and JBJ returning to career norms will improve those CF numbers.

 

Other than already being closer to average at some positions than maybe expected, not too many surprises. I'd love to see an impact bat added at 1B or 3B (Gallo, Mancini, Bryant, Donaldson, etc.), but regardless, I think you at least want to get some depth at 1B/3B and RP to protect against injuries and inconsistent production down the stretch. In lieu of a bigger splash, I'd love to see an Escobar-type added in addition to a relief pitcher.

[StearnsFTW]

Just to compare Reynolds and Gallo...

 

Reynolds 2007-09 (he pretty much peaked his first 3 years):

 

Gallo 2018-21:

 

Not a horrible comparison. That said, Reynolds was very good his first three years (ie. I would be happy adding that kind of production to the team), and Gallo still almost doubled his WAR in 200 fewer PAs in this comparison. Also note that Reynolds' numbers were probably helped by a high BABIP, which may have explained some of his decline after these three years. Whereas Gallo's low BABIP could lead to better results moving forward.

 

Thanks for the side-by-side. Similar batting profile, but Gallo is miles better on the bases and defensively.

[StearnsFTW]

Stearns/Arnold have done a great job of continuously improving the team throughout the year already and not just waiting until the deadline. So I'm with those that recognize some of the "deadline" deals for this team are ones that have already occurred. Because of that, this is already a pretty different team than the one that began the season.

 

Some MLB rankings since the Adames trade:

 

C (11th in fWAR, 20th in wRC+)

1B (16th in fWAR, 21st in wRC+)

2B (11th in fWAR, 7th in wRC+)

3B (15th in fWAR, 14th in wRC+)

SS (2nd in fWAR, 3rd in wRC+)

LF (7th in fWAR, 10th in wRC+)

CF (23rd in fWAR, 29th in wRC+)

RF (8th in fWAR, 9th in wRC+)

 

SP (2nd in fWAR, 2nd in ERA)

RP (16th in fWAR, 8th in ERA)

 

Hopefully some combination of Cain returning and JBJ returning to career norms will improve those CF numbers.

 

Other than already being closer to average at some positions than maybe expected, not too many surprises. I'd love to see an impact bat added at 1B or 3B (Gallo, Mancini, Bryant, Donaldson, etc.), but regardless, I think you at least want to get some depth at 1B/3B and RP to protect against injuries and inconsistent production down the stretch. In lieu of a bigger splash, I'd love to see an Escobar-type added in addition to a relief pitcher.

 

Ironic part is roughly 30% of the payroll is in CF.

[Simba2020]

and not very good at first either.

 

I don’t disagree that he’s no longer a third base option, but what data are you citing to support a claim of poor performance at first?

Maybe there are other metrics, but his OAA is negative at first. His UZR/150 ratings are negative. Both of those measurements are worse than Hiura's are. He hasn't played first in 3 years. He views himself as a RF and I'm still not sure he'd welcome a return to 1B.

[Simba2020]

and not very good at first either.

 

I don’t disagree that he’s no longer a third base option, but what data are you citing to support a claim of poor performance at first?

Maybe there are other metrics, but his OAA is negative at first. His UZR/150 ratings are negative. Both of those measurements are worse than Hiura's are. He hasn't played first in 3 years. He views himself as a RF and I'm still not sure he'd welcome a return to 1B.

[Jopal78]

This seems like an unusual way to judge potential deadline deals.

 

Not really, they've been buyers the last handful of seasons, their payroll has remained fairly constant in the 100-120 million dollar range during that time period, and they remain a team that must draft and develop significant talent to be successful year to year

 

First, many of those players DID have modest value when traded.

 

Exactly, emphasis on the word modest. In fact, most of those players are no longer with the organization the Brewers traded them to further illustrating their value

 

Second, I’m not sure you can judge any potential deals based on historical deals because we don’t know what other deals they considered previously, whether they judge their playoff chances differently now vs the past, hence a greater willingness to make a bigger deal, etc.

 

All one can go on is what they did in the past. It is not like they magically are going to through the budget in the garbage can and go hog wild. Futher, short of a total collapse down the stretch, they are likely to win the NL Central. That fact alone probably influences their decision to make a "bigger deal" as you say. Especially considering they were in much tighter races in 2018 and 2019. Succinctly stated, perhaps to our collective disappointment, since 2017 they haven't significantly mortgaged the future to bring in players at the deadline, I wouldn't count on that changing this year either

[PeaveyFury]

I just think that there are different players available to acquire, differing levels of talent in your own farm system, and different needs to fill than there may have been in previous years. Hence, I don’t think past performance is necessarily indicative of future results.

[Greenleaf1]

Apologies as I haven't read back through this thread, but Donaldson makes a lot of sense to me. Any deal for him would likely involve us sending Cain or Bradley back to alleviate some of Donaldson's salary and make it a little more palatable for us to hold onto Donaldson for a couple more years. He could play 1B/3B this year and DH the next few years potentially. His OPS+ the last couple years with Minnesota has basically not dipped at all from his career average, acquiring him would lengthen the lineup but still allow for Urias/Tellez to get some playing time (and even potentially open up more playing time for Taylor).

 

The questions for me would be:

1. Are the Twins serious about contending next year, or is that a line to drive up prices for the trade deadline? Do they want to dump Donaldson's contract?

2. What kind of return are they looking for. Assuming we include Cain or Bradley and their money in the deal, what are we looking at? Is Turang/Feliciano enough?

[PeaveyFury]

Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.

[rickh150]

Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.

 

Donaldson and cash for salary this season for Cain, Turang, and multiple low level guys.

 

Is this fair/reasonable?

[iKezims]

Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.

 

Donaldson and cash for salary this season for Cain, Turang, and multiple low level guys.

 

Is this fair/reasonable?

 

No IMO - It is a massive overpay. I guess it comes down to the "cash" part - it would need to be a lot of cash, but the Brewers aren't trading Turang to get Donaldson.

[endaround]

Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.

 

Donaldson and cash for salary this season for Cain, Turang, and multiple low level guys.

 

Is this fair/reasonable?

 

Buxton and Donaldson for Turang and JBJ would be reasonable. A lot depends on what the Twins want more, to get talent back or to get rid of Donaldson's salary.

[PeaveyFury]

I MIGHT do Turang/JBJ for Donaldson, not Turang and Cain. I’d agree on a deal if Buxton was involved.