Prospective trade deadline targets?

[sveumrules]

I mean, and it's no offense to anyone here, but a lot of this board are huge analytics nerds. There's nothing wrong with that. But, when it comes to trades, you don't have to know analytics to know that the better of a player(more talented) you acquire, the more likely you are to get better production. Again, there are no guarantees with anything, but for example(and it's JUST an example people), if Team A acquires Vlad Guerrero jr for the stretch run, and team B acquires Eric Sogard, which team is more likely to get better production down the stretch? Now granted, it may not necessarily end up that way, but don't you always want to tilt the odds in your favor as much as possible?? Simple logic.

 

You know who else is even huger analytic nerds than some message board posters? David Stearns, Matt Arnold & the rest of the Brewers front office.

 

Of course VGJ vs Sogard is just an example, one of them is so good they aren't getting traded for anything under the sun, the other is hanging on the waiver wire free for the taking. An example that has no bearing on the real world isn't a very useful example.

 

Where analytics does come in handy is when trying to determine if it is worthwhile to give up a better prospect package for one player vs a lighter prospect package for a player who might not be quite as good, but still represents an upgrade over the current options.

 

A more pertinent example might be Mancini vs Aguilar mentioned above. Two similar players, who play the same position & are both likely to be on the block, but Mancini projects to be about 10-15% better rest of season.

 

Personally, I'd rather have Mancini, he projects better. But if we have to give up Turang for Trey, but can get Jesus without Brice, sign me up for Aguilar.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Others may interpret this differently, but reading between the lines here...Doesn't seem to me like Stearns is going to do anything big.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/columnists/tom-haudricourt/2021/07/23/milwaukee-brewers-assess-options-trade-deadline-nears/8070227002/

 

"Big" in this case is very much in the eye of the beholder. Grabbing a well-known guy, as you are obviously advocating, is definitely not the only key to a successful trade season. As Stearns says, sometimes those under-the-radar moves are the ones that make the most difference. Move such as Pomeranz and Jordan Lyles in the past. Moves that were both panned pretty viciously here, but turned out to be extraordinary.

 

I mean, and it's no offense to anyone here, but a lot of this board are huge analytics nerds. There's nothing wrong with that. But, when it comes to trades, you don't have to know analytics to know that the better of a player(more talented) you acquire, the more likely you are to get better production. Again, there are no guarantees with anything, but for example(and it's JUST an example people), if Team A acquires Vlad Guerrero jr for the stretch run, and team B acquires Eric Sogard, which team is more likely to get better production down the stretch? Now granted, it may not necessarily end up that way, but don't you always want to tilt the odds in your favor as much as possible?? Simple logic.

 

Simple logic was trading for a big bat in Jonathan Schoop a few years back, analytics be damned. Sometimes acquiring the "big name bat" doesn't work.

[StearnsFTW]

Please no Aguilar. Yuck.

 

Mancini would be ideal, but I can't see Baltimore trading him.

Mancini career OPS: .815

 

Aguilar career OPS: .803

 

Both have a career OBP of .334. Both have an OPS of .793 this season. Mancini's career K rate is 23%, Aguilar 23.7%.

 

Both so far appear to have had one year outliers - Aguilar in 2018, Mancini in 2019.

 

Both are under control for one more year. Mancini is making $4.75M this year, Aguilar $4.3M.

 

Mancini better not cost a lot more in prospects than Aguilar.

 

I'm not paying for the past I'm paying for the future, specifically the next 3 months if you think their production will be the same going forward we'll agree to disagree.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Please no Aguilar. Yuck.

 

Mancini would be ideal, but I can't see Baltimore trading him.

Mancini career OPS: .815

 

Aguilar career OPS: .803

 

Both have a career OBP of .334. Both have an OPS of .793 this season. Mancini's career K rate is 23%, Aguilar 23.7%.

 

Both so far appear to have had one year outliers - Aguilar in 2018, Mancini in 2019.

 

Both are under control for one more year. Mancini is making $4.75M this year, Aguilar $4.3M.

 

Mancini better not cost a lot more in prospects than Aguilar.

 

I'm not paying for the past I'm paying for the future, specifically the next 3 months if you think their production will be the same going forward we'll agree to disagree.

 

The biggest thing that worries be about Aguilar is his trend of being very average at best in the second half of seasons.

[Brewcrewin07]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/columnists/tom-haudricourt/2021/07/23/milwaukee-brewers-assess-options-trade-deadline-nears/8070227002/

 

"Big" in this case is very much in the eye of the beholder. Grabbing a well-known guy, as you are obviously advocating, is definitely not the only key to a successful trade season. As Stearns says, sometimes those under-the-radar moves are the ones that make the most difference. Move such as Pomeranz and Jordan Lyles in the past. Moves that were both panned pretty viciously here, but turned out to be extraordinary.

 

I mean, and it's no offense to anyone here, but a lot of this board are huge analytics nerds. There's nothing wrong with that. But, when it comes to trades, you don't have to know analytics to know that the better of a player(more talented) you acquire, the more likely you are to get better production. Again, there are no guarantees with anything, but for example(and it's JUST an example people), if Team A acquires Vlad Guerrero jr for the stretch run, and team B acquires Eric Sogard, which team is more likely to get better production down the stretch? Now granted, it may not necessarily end up that way, but don't you always want to tilt the odds in your favor as much as possible?? Simple logic.

 

Simple logic was trading for a big bat in Jonathan Schoop a few years back, analytics be damned. Sometimes acquiring the "big name bat" doesn't work.

 

Schoop wasn't a "big name" bat. Not in the realm of a Mancini, or a Rizzo, or a Bryant or Gallo would be.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Schoop wasn't a "big name" bat. Not in the realm of a Mancini, or a Rizzo, or a Bryant or Gallo would be.

 

Disagree. Next to Machado, he was one of the top bars available that year. Name recognition, as much as you seem to want to believe it, does not equal success.

[SRB]

Hard to believe considering how bad he was for us, but Schoop was still considered a top-tier offensive 2B after his big 2017.

[sveumrules]

My favorite thing about Schoop was he was on a crazy tear before we acquired him.

 

In 23 games / 101 PAs leading up to the trade he hit 360/356/700.

 

That's right, 360 AVG / 356 OBP. Didn't walk or get hit by a pitch in those 101 trips to the plate, with a sac fly dropping his OBP below his AVG. Doesn't get much crazier than that.

[LouisEly]

For whatever it is or isn't worth, the publicly available projections have Mancini between 118-134 wRC+ rest of season vs a 110-120 wRC+ range for Aguilar.

Of course they do, projections are based on historical data and Mancini had the more recent outlier. More recent data is weighted heavier in projections.

 

I'm not paying for the past I'm paying for the future, specifically the next 3 months if you think their production will be the same going forward we'll agree to disagree.

Mancini's bout with colon cancer last year concerns me that he will be able to achieve his 2019 production again and that 2021 is more of the expected than the outlier. Given those health concerns and that they have the same OPS in 2021, I don't expect Mancini's production to be much greater than Aguilar's the rest of the year.

 

FWIW, I wouldn't give up a lot for either.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah I totally get the cancer.beimg concerning. For sure.

[wntrtxn21]

Just a couple off the cuff ideas that would be pretty big additions

 

Brewers acquire Starling Marte

 

Marlins acquire Tyrone Taylor and Freddy Zamora

 

 

 

Brewers acquire Trey Mancini and Paul Fry

 

Orioles acquire Adrian Houser, Keston Hiura, and Peyton Henry

 

If Stearns could pull off that trade with the O's, it would be one of his biggest steals ever.

[BadgerFan]

For all the talk of going for it now versus being conservative and "playing the long game", let's not forget that there may not even be a baseball season next year given the lockout concerns.

 

Question for the board...if you could swing for the fences and have a 60% chance of winning the World Series (for the sake of argument let's say the Brewers acquire Scherzer, Kimbrel, Rizzo and Escobar) but in the process they majorly deplete the farm system and hurt the future, would you do it?

 

I say absolutely. Nothing is guaranteed in the future. Who saw Hiura being the worst hitter in the league at this point? Who saw Yelich struggling this bad just a couple seasons after his MVP. Play to win now.

[sveumrules]

The Dodgers (19% @ 538 | 18.4% @ PECOTA | 17% @ FanGraphs) & Astros (16% @ 538 | 16.6% @ PECOTA | 14.5% @ Fangraphs) currently have the best chance to win the World Series.

 

No series of possible moves would move our odds close to 20% much less 60%.

[PeaveyFury]

Also, I understand that the proposed acquisitions were more for effect than realistic assumptions, but you’d be lucky to get two of those guys even if they trade away every asset they have in the system.

[wibadgers23]

I know we need a bat but Nationals are considering selling and putting Scherzer on the market. I think it would make sense with the Brewers trying to limit innings for our current starters. Stretch out the rotation and make it even more formidable. Wonder what the cost would be to acquire him (and I know he would have to waive his NTC).

[sveumrules]

Pretty sure Boras said Scherzer will require an extension to waive his NTC, so probably not happening in Milwaukee.

 

If that's the case & Max is moved to a team that can afford that sort of cash for a 37 year old pitcher, I'd normally guess the return would probably be a couple prospects better than the comp pick the Nats would net when Scherzer sailed in FA, but it looks like Max has already turned down a QO once before so Washington could maybe lose him for nothing if they don't find a deadline deal.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Pretty sure Boras said Scherzer will require an extension to waive his NTC, so probably not happening in Milwaukee.

 

If that's the case & Max is moved to a team that can afford that sort of cash for a 37 year old pitcher, I'd normally guess the return would probably be a couple prospects better than the comp pick the Nats would net when Scherzer sailed in FA, but it looks like Max has already turned down a QO once before so Washington could maybe lose him for nothing if they don't find a deadline deal.

 

I don’t quite get the “must get extension” route. The guy is already set to cash in this offseason. Why not allow for more teams to bid for you during the off-season, then just a few (if any) during the season. Could just be agent talk but doesn’t seem plausible. Max would much rather pitch for a playoff team than one who isn’t.

[sveumrules]

The main reason would be injury risk.

 

Say Scherzer can get 3/75 from an acquiring team now, maybe a strong stretch & post-season run pushes that to 3/90 in the offseason, but an injury in the next three months could drop it all the way down to something like 2/20, say 5 million for the rehab year in 2022 then a 15 million gamble on a 38/39 year old Max in 2023.

[igor67]

The solution worth emptying the farm for won't happen, but it is Ohatani. He fills all the soft spots at once, and you maintain a competitive core for a few years even if there is no young talent left on the farm.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Freeman is the HR acquisition if the Braves collapse this week.

[pacopete4]

Freeman is the HR acquisition if the Braves collapse this week.

 

Yep. Not sure they’d do it but he’s the key token to instantly become a great lineup.

[wibadgers23]

The Braves might be close enough that they wouldn’t sell, but yeah Freeman would be the perfect acquisition. Let’s hope they lose a bunch of games over the next few days and decide to sell.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Freeman is the HR acquisition if the Braves collapse this week.

 

I was just floating this name around with my dad this past week. Would be an insane get! Definitely a needle mover.

[Simba2020]

Freddie would be an unbelievable add but highly unlikely even if the Braves end up as sellers as I suspect they will at least to some degree. I think both parties truly want to get an extension done that will keep him in a Braves uniform for the rest of his career.

[pacopete4]

1. Bryant

2. Freeman

3. Rizzo

 

In that order. Bryan because he can play all over.