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Prospective trade deadline targets?


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Something is odd with the Jeffress situation. It just doesn't feel right.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I would honestly highly consider taking whatever you can for Hiura right now. Or if not now, very soon once the sellers have been clearly identified.

 

Keston still has enough shine on his prospect status and '19 season where a lot of clubs would roll the dice on him and give us something currently useful which Keston is not. But at the moment he is like a stock that has lost 40% of its value. You can cut your losses right now and salvage something, or you can wait and hope to recover, or see it completely bottom out and end up with nothing.

 

We don't need him to win. He could bring back help now. I hate selling low, but it could get a lot lower.

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I would honestly highly consider taking whatever you can for Hiura right now. Or if not now, very soon once the sellers have been clearly identified.

 

Keston still has enough shine on his prospect status and '19 season where a lot of clubs would roll the dice on him and give us something currently useful which Keston is not. But at the moment he is like a stock that has lost 40% of its value. You can cut your losses right now and salvage something, or you can wait and hope to recover, or see it completely bottom out and end up with nothing.

 

We don't need him to win. He could bring back help now. I hate selling low, but it could get a lot lower.

 

Yes, his value could certainly bottom out, but I specifically remember very similar posts advocating doing the same thing with Corbin Burnes in 2019. Now is Hiura going to accomplish a Burnes-like resurgence? Chances are likely no. But I also don't think the Brewers are the type of franchise that can risk dealing off a bat with Hiura's perceived upside unless they are absolutely convinced that he'll never achieve that upside. And if they are convinced of that, it's likely every other team in MLB is as well.

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If the Brewers trade Hiura today at best you are looking at something like a AAAA player in return. So basically a McKinney or Peterson type of a player, is that really an upgrade over Hiura?

 

I don't believe that is an upgrade right now and doesn't really make the team all that much better.

 

If the Nationals are out of it by the deadline there are two 1B options in Schwarber and Bell. Neither Bell or Schwarber should cost all that much in terms of prospects.

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Let him go to AAA and try to iron out his issues.

There is no rush, or needed timetable.

Let him be there until he is ready to come back up.

Trading him now, at the lowest possible value just wouldn't be wise.

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I would honestly highly consider taking whatever you can for Hiura right now. Or if not now, very soon once the sellers have been clearly identified.

 

Keston still has enough shine on his prospect status and '19 season where a lot of clubs would roll the dice on him and give us something currently useful which Keston is not. But at the moment he is like a stock that has lost 40% of its value. You can cut your losses right now and salvage something, or you can wait and hope to recover, or see it completely bottom out and end up with nothing.

 

We don't need him to win. He could bring back help now. I hate selling low, but it could get a lot lower.

 

I take the opposite view; his value has dropped far enough that we won't get all that much in return even if we sell right now; if the Brewers are concerned enough about him to sell low, other teams will be concerned too. He's 24 with 2 option years remaining; the cost of having him work on his game in AAA is one 40-man roster spot. If we had to keep him on the 26-man roster, or paid him a high salary, I might have agreed with the logic to sell low. I'll take the risk of value dropping lower in return for knowing what he can do if he gets right. To me his main issue seems to be one of timing, which is why it appears that he has a hole in his swing. And I think that is a much more fixable issue than had it been about ball-strike recognition or bat speed or a long bat path etc.

 

He's 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. Maybe he won't ever be able to adjust to the changes in how he's being pitched, or maybe he will. I just think the right value play is sticking with it, because the upside is is there *if* he makes it. We're not getting a player who can have an immediate offensive impact anyway.

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I would honestly highly consider taking whatever you can for Hiura right now. Or if not now, very soon once the sellers have been clearly identified.

 

Keston still has enough shine on his prospect status and '19 season where a lot of clubs would roll the dice on him and give us something currently useful which Keston is not. But at the moment he is like a stock that has lost 40% of its value. You can cut your losses right now and salvage something, or you can wait and hope to recover, or see it completely bottom out and end up with nothing.

 

We don't need him to win. He could bring back help now. I hate selling low, but it could get a lot lower.

 

I take the opposite view; his value has dropped far enough that we won't get all that much in return even if we sell right now; if the Brewers are concerned enough about him to sell low, other teams will be concerned too. He's 24 with 2 option years remaining; the cost of having him work on his game in AAA is one 40-man roster spot. If we had to keep him on the 26-man roster, or paid him a high salary, I might have agreed with the logic to sell low. I'll take the risk of value dropping lower in return for knowing what he can do if he gets right. To me his main issue seems to be one of timing, which is why it appears that he has a hole in his swing. And I think that is a much more fixable issue than had it been about ball-strike recognition or bat speed or a long bat path etc.

 

He's 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. Maybe he won't ever be able to adjust to the changes in how he's being pitched, or maybe he will. I just think the right value play is sticking with it, because the upside is is there *if* he makes it. We're not getting a player who can have an immediate offensive impact anyway.

 

I think his value has dropped some .....but it's still fairly significant value. As you say, he's still 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. He's 24, he's cheap and he's controlled. He was a top 15 prospect. I think there's a ton of teams that would absolutely take a chance on him and could return something of immediate impact.

 

At the end of the day even in his limited career there has been an enormous difference in Keston's floor and ceiling. I'm sure our own analytical guys are trying to determine which is the more permanent Keston and that should figure in to what we decide to do with him.

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I would honestly highly consider taking whatever you can for Hiura right now. Or if not now, very soon once the sellers have been clearly identified.

 

Keston still has enough shine on his prospect status and '19 season where a lot of clubs would roll the dice on him and give us something currently useful which Keston is not. But at the moment he is like a stock that has lost 40% of its value. You can cut your losses right now and salvage something, or you can wait and hope to recover, or see it completely bottom out and end up with nothing.

 

We don't need him to win. He could bring back help now. I hate selling low, but it could get a lot lower.

 

I take the opposite view; his value has dropped far enough that we won't get all that much in return even if we sell right now; if the Brewers are concerned enough about him to sell low, other teams will be concerned too. He's 24 with 2 option years remaining; the cost of having him work on his game in AAA is one 40-man roster spot. If we had to keep him on the 26-man roster, or paid him a high salary, I might have agreed with the logic to sell low. I'll take the risk of value dropping lower in return for knowing what he can do if he gets right. To me his main issue seems to be one of timing, which is why it appears that he has a hole in his swing. And I think that is a much more fixable issue than had it been about ball-strike recognition or bat speed or a long bat path etc.

 

He's 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. Maybe he won't ever be able to adjust to the changes in how he's being pitched, or maybe he will. I just think the right value play is sticking with it, because the upside is is there *if* he makes it. We're not getting a player who can have an immediate offensive impact anyway.

 

I think his value has dropped some .....but it's still fairly significant value. As you say, he's still 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. He's 24, he's cheap and he's controlled. He was a top 15 prospect. I think there's a ton of teams that would absolutely take a chance on him and could return something of immediate impact.

 

At the end of the day even in his limited career there has been an enormous difference in Keston's floor and ceiling. I'm sure our own analytical guys are trying to determine which is the more permanent Keston and that should figure in to what we decide to do with him.

 

But if you take the more positive stance in that first paragraph.. why sell at all? Any "immediate impact" player will by definition have less team control or a higher salary or a lower ceiling, or a combination of all three. Or else the player wouldn't get traded for a struggling player with upside. It'd be a short-term move, trading upside and potential long-term impact for immediate help but with less upside and/or shorter time horizon. It's getting rid of a high risk/high reward type of situation for a lower risk but lower reward scenario. And I think the only way a team with the budget of the Brewers has a legit shot at a WS is by going with the upside plays and taking those risks.

 

ETA; With regards to the last paragraph. I think that's the key. More than anything to do with risk of losing more value etc, it should come down to whether you think his issues can be fixed or not. If yes, keep. If no, trade. Where we seem to differ is if the answer is varying shades of "maybe". I'm in the camp of keeping him until you can answer it with more certainty. Because the way I see it, I value the potential upside a lot more than the fear of missing out on a good deal and having to settle for less.

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What if I told you there is a player that would be the perfect fit for the Brewers offense?

 

This player is going to be a free agent after the season.

 

This player plays for a team almost assured to be out of the playoff race by June.

 

This player primarily plays 3B and 2B, but can play a capable SS in a pinch.

 

This player is a switch hitter with solid splits against both LHP and RHP.

 

This player had a 3.1 WAR in 2018 and 3.3 WAR in 2019 (3.5 fWAR & 3.6 fWAR respectively according to FanGraphs).

 

This player currently has a 130 DRC+ which is tied for the 11th best DRC+ mark among all hitters in baseball.

 

This player strikes out just 18.3% of the time which is in the 75th percentile among all hitters.

 

This player has 7 home runs and a .301 ISO.

 

This player has fallen victim to some terrible batted ball luck (just a .217 BABIP), but is still having a valuable season.

 

This player has a .854 OPS (despite the previously mentioned BABIP) and 0.9 WAR.

 

I am sure some of you will be underwhelmed when you click on this spoiler, but realize this player could be a legitimate addition to this current lineup...

 

 

30272.png&w=350&h=254

..........Eduardo Escobar

 

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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I always like Escobar, actually.

 

Regarding JJ, lets be honest, he has consistently be an issue his entire career. Luckily in his time here we avoided it all. That being said the upside is getting pretty limited and he keeps adding baggage every time the bus stops. He can blame his old agent all he wants, but I doubt every team in baseball is avoiding him like the plague over his crazy ex agent saying some stuff. Wish him lucky straightening out his personal life stuff...but I personally don't have much interest in him coming to Milwaukee again.

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Escobar would be a great add.

 

At this point I'm not sure the Royals will be out of it but I'd make a play at Duffy and Hanser Alberto. Alberto could platoon with Shaw and be a tough out off the bench against LHP.

 

Jon Berti from the Marlins would be a good replacement for what Robertson is supposed to be. Though, he's kind of needed on their roster now with injuries and I'm not really convinced they'll be completely out of the playoff chase either.

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What if I told you there is a player that would be the perfect fit for the Brewers offense?

 

This player is going to be a free agent after the season.

 

This player plays for a team almost assured to be out of the playoff race by June.

 

This player primarily plays 3B and 2B, but can play a capable SS in a pinch.

 

This player is a switch hitter with solid splits against both LHP and RHP.

 

This player had a 3.1 WAR in 2018 and 3.3 WAR in 2019 (3.5 fWAR & 3.6 fWAR respectively according to FanGraphs).

 

This player currently has a 130 DRC+ which is tied for the 11th best DRC+ mark among all hitters in baseball.

 

This player strikes out just 18.3% of the time which is in the 75th percentile among all hitters.

 

This player has 7 home runs and a .301 ISO.

 

This player has fallen victim to some terrible batted ball luck (just a .217 BABIP), but is still having a valuable season.

 

This player has a .854 OPS (despite the previously mentioned BABIP) and 0.9 WAR.

 

I am sure some of you will be underwhelmed when you click on this spoiler, but realize this player could be a legitimate addition to this current lineup...

 

 

30272.png&w=350&h=254

..........Eduardo Escobar

 

 

I’ve only been banging the drum for him since last offseason. Would love to have him.

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Escobar would be a great add.

 

At this point I'm not sure the Royals will be out of it but I'd make a play at Duffy and Hanser Alberto. Alberto could platoon with Shaw and be a tough out off the bench against LHP.

 

Jon Berti from the Marlins would be a good replacement for what Robertson is supposed to be. Though, he's kind of needed on their roster now with injuries and I'm not really convinced they'll be completely out of the playoff chase either.

 

Berti would be a nice add in place of Robertson. I have no idea what it would take to get him, but he would be a huge upgrade. Alberto, maybe. His OBP sucks, but he doesn't K very much. Just say NO to Duffy. He has sucked for a while and is owed $15.5M.

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