Prospective trade deadline targets?

[PeaveyFury]

...and Moran’s career OPS is higher than that of Mike Moustakas (a 16 million dollar a year player).

 

Just because a team unwisely overpaid someone for production doesn't mean that other teams also need to do so for an unrelated player....

[sveumrules]

Moran has 1,363 career PAs with a 101 wRC+ & 1.3 WAR, he has been a negative on both the bases (-11.7) & in the field (-22.7). His BRef page is even bleaker with -31 in the field for only 0.2 career WAR.

 

So essentially a 1B only that can't run or field & with his power surge in 2020 looking like an anomaly can't really hit all that much either.

 

Colin is essentially skinny Vogelbach with a beard. Can't see Stearns & company giving up any value for a guy with the same profile as a waiver claim.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it's fair to say that Moran would hit more HR playing half his games at AmFam and getting to face Pittsburgh's staff instead of the Brewers 19 times a year. Moran has 24 road home runs and just 15 at home. He's slow, but no slower than Shaw and he hits for a considerably higher average than either Shaw or Vogelbach.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I doubt that Kelly gets dealt. His value is too tough to figure. The way the Brewers were talking about him at the alternate site, it sounded like he might have passed Small and Ashby, but the other teams didn’t get to see that, and then the injury …

 

The return simply isn’t going to be enough to justify giving him up. Maybe I am wrong, but I doubt then Brewers give up but I doubt the Brewers would be willing to give up any of their top 10 for any of those guys.

[Jopal78]

...and Moran’s career OPS is higher than that of Mike Moustakas (a 16 million dollar a year player).

 

Just because a team unwisely overpaid someone for production doesn't mean that other teams also need to do so for an unrelated player....

 

Says you. Look around the league it's not 2004 any more. Any type of every day starting player in the major leagues in making 7-10 million. Heck, Moustakas got 14 million from the Brewers for 2019. It's the reality, if a team is looking to sign players for their starting lineup for less, they're shopping in the bargain bin of older veterans, players coming off major injuries, etc.

 

Thus, the fact Moran is making 2.8 million for the Pirates and has two more passes through arbitration makes him incredibly valuable. If Moran was a free agent right now he'd be looking for 4 times as much or more per year.

[nate82]

...and Moran’s career OPS is higher than that of Mike Moustakas (a 16 million dollar a year player).

 

Just because a team unwisely overpaid someone for production doesn't mean that other teams also need to do so for an unrelated player....

 

Says you. Look around the league it's not 2004 any more. Any type of every day starting player in the major leagues in making 7-10 million. Heck, Moustakas got 14 million from the Brewers for 2019. It's the reality, if a team is looking to sign players for their starting lineup for less, they're shopping in the bargain bin of older veterans, players coming off major injuries, etc.

 

Thus, the fact Moran is making 2.8 million for the Pirates and has two more passes through arbitration makes him incredibly valuable. If Moran was a free agent right now he'd be looking for 4 times as much or more per year.

 

Moran would be the bargain bin free agent he is basically a higher slugging version of Sogard. So at most Moran would make on the open market is about 4.5 million so just a little under double what he is making now and that is if everything goes right for him in free agency. He could also see himself in a Travis Shaw type situation where he signs a minor league contract with someone with an opt out date.

 

Moran's contract may make him a little bit more valuable but his offense and defense takes a lot of that value away. Prospect wise the Pirates are not going to get a top prospect for Moran at best they are looking at a teams 20-30th ranked prospect which means they are not going to get a very good player or at least one that has a lot of value right now.

[anglotiger]

...and Moran’s career OPS is higher than that of Mike Moustakas (a 16 million dollar a year player).

 

Just because a team unwisely overpaid someone for production doesn't mean that other teams also need to do so for an unrelated player....

 

Maybe someone should tell the MLBPA that...?

[CheeseheadInQC]

...and Moran’s career OPS is higher than that of Mike Moustakas (a 16 million dollar a year player).

 

Just because a team unwisely overpaid someone for production doesn't mean that other teams also need to do so for an unrelated player....

 

Says you. Look around the league it's not 2004 any more. Any type of every day starting player in the major leagues in making 7-10 million. Heck, Moustakas got 14 million from the Brewers for 2019. It's the reality, if a team is looking to sign players for their starting lineup for less, they're shopping in the bargain bin of older veterans, players coming off major injuries, etc.

 

Thus, the fact Moran is making 2.8 million for the Pirates and has two more passes through arbitration makes him incredibly valuable. If Moran was a free agent right now he'd be looking for 4 times as much or more per year.

 

Among first basemen, only Carlos Santana got more than $3.5 million this past offseason. C.J. Cron, for example, got $1 million. Unless you still think Moran is a third baseman, people just aren't paying for marginal first basemen. If he has a second half of the season the same as the first you could argue he'd be a borderline non-tender candidate.

[adambr2]

...and Moran’s career OPS is higher than that of Mike Moustakas (a 16 million dollar a year player).

 

Just because a team unwisely overpaid someone for production doesn't mean that other teams also need to do so for an unrelated player....

 

Says you. Look around the league it's not 2004 any more. Any type of every day starting player in the major leagues in making 7-10 million. Heck, Moustakas got 14 million from the Brewers for 2019. It's the reality, if a team is looking to sign players for their starting lineup for less, they're shopping in the bargain bin of older veterans, players coming off major injuries, etc.

 

Thus, the fact Moran is making 2.8 million for the Pirates and has two more passes through arbitration makes him incredibly valuable. If Moran was a free agent right now he'd be looking for 4 times as much or more per year.

 

Moose got 10M from the Brewers for 2019, very big difference between that and 14M.

 

I've always thought Moose was pretty overrated but he has produced over 15 WAR for his career while Moran is basically replacement level and always has been. No way would I have given Moose 64M but he is not comparable to Moran just because they have the same career OPS.

[Jopal78]

 

Moose got 10M from the Brewers for 2019, very big difference between that and 14M.

 

I've always thought Moose was pretty overrated but he has produced over 15 WAR for his career while Moran is basically replacement level and always has been. No way would I have given Moose 64M but he is not comparable to Moran just because they have the same career OPS.

 

Moustakas got 11 million and when they declined their half of his mutual option he got another 3 for a total of 14, at least that’s what the websites say look it up.

 

I don’t even think the Pirates will trade Moran in the first place, but the bottom line is he has a career .750+ OPS and plays corner infield and is under team control for 2022 and 2023.

 

When a .750 OPS is going to cost you 10+ million AAV on the free agent market, you can bank on it Moran has significant value. Not a guy you build around per se, but like Avi Garcia a capable player.

[adambr2]

 

Moose got 10M from the Brewers for 2019, very big difference between that and 14M.

 

I've always thought Moose was pretty overrated but he has produced over 15 WAR for his career while Moran is basically replacement level and always has been. No way would I have given Moose 64M but he is not comparable to Moran just because they have the same career OPS.

 

Moustakas got 11 million and when they declined their half of his mutual option he got another 3 for a total of 14, at least that’s what the websites say look it up.

 

I don’t even think the Pirates will trade Moran in the first place, but the bottom line is he has a career .750+ OPS and plays corner infield and is under team control for 2022 and 2023.

 

When a .750 OPS is going to cost you 10+ million AAV on the free agent market, you can bank on it Moran has significant value. Not a guy you build around per se, but like Avi Garcia a capable player.

 

I did look it up before I even posted that. His base salary was 7 million and the buyout on the 11M option was 3M for a total of 10M.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/brewers-to-re-sign-mike-moustakas.html

[Jopal78]

 

I did look it up before I even posted that. His base salary was 7 million and the buyout on the 11M option was 3M for a total of 10M.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/brewers-to-re-sign-mike-moustakas.html

 

Alas, you must’ve got some bad information.

 

here’s spotrac which says it’s more.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cincinnati-reds/mike-moustakas-8532/

 

As well as baseball prospectus

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/cincinnati-reds/

 

Even our friends at brew crew ball have it as more

[sveumrules]

 

I did look it up before I even posted that. His base salary was 7 million and the buyout on the 11M option was 3M for a total of 10M.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/brewers-to-re-sign-mike-moustakas.html

 

Alas, you must’ve got some bad information.

 

here’s spotrac which says it’s more.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cincinnati-reds/mike-moustakas-8532/

 

As well as baseball prospectus

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/cincinnati-reds/

 

Even our friends at brew crew ball have it as more

 

I scrolled down the Reds Cots page & saw this under Moose...

 

19:$7M, 20:$11M mutual option ($3M buyout)

 

Spotrac's 2019 Brewers team payroll page also lists a base salary of 7 million for Moose...

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/payroll/2019/

[adambr2]

 

I did look it up before I even posted that. His base salary was 7 million and the buyout on the 11M option was 3M for a total of 10M.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/brewers-to-re-sign-mike-moustakas.html

 

Alas, you must’ve got some bad information.

 

here’s spotrac which says it’s more.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cincinnati-reds/mike-moustakas-8532/

 

As well as baseball prospectus

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/cincinnati-reds/

 

Even our friends at brew crew ball have it as more

 

There's nothing in your first link that says Moose made $14M from the Brewers in '19. The second link literally confirms what I said and contradicts what you said.

[Jopal78]

The point remains, let’s see some trade proposals without first denigrating the target player in order to justify acquiring them for crap.

[sveumrules]

The point remains, let’s see some trade proposals without first denigrating the target player in order to justify acquiring them for crap.

 

There are 205 players with at least 1,000 PAs since Moran became a regular in 2018.

 

Colin's 1.4 WAR ranks 188th, his -10.4 on the bases ranks 192nd, his -22.5 on defense ranks 170th.

 

For comparison, there were 234 players with at least 1,000 PAs in the three seasons before Moose hit free agency, with his 7.3 WAR ranking 77th.

 

Of course Moose was no blazer (-9.5 on the bases), but he was a better hitter (110 vs 101 wRC+) and also a capable 2B/3B (-1.4 on defense) vs a butcher at 3B who is looking like a butcher at 1B now too, -13.5 UZR/150 in 524 innings at first for Moran so far.

 

It's not denigrating Moran to say his value isn't really comparable to Moose's entering free agency & is much closer to someone like Vogelbach who was a waiver claim.

[CheeseheadInQC]

The point remains, let’s see some trade proposals without first denigrating the target player in order to justify acquiring them for crap.

Moustakas had four individual seasons with more fWAR than Moran has in his career when the Brewers re-signed him. The fact is, the market for first basemen of Moran’s value this past offseason puts him squarely in coin flip territory as far as getting tendered this coming offseason, kind of negating the added value of his years of control, and if the Pirates already have decided not to tender him at the deadline, it is basically best offer.

[nate82]

The point remains, let’s see some trade proposals without first denigrating the target player in order to justify acquiring them for crap.

 

For Moran it really is trading a poo poo sandwich for another poo poo sandwich. The value is just not there you can quote his OPS all you want but you are ignoring all of the other information out there. Moran is just not that good of a player and no matter how many years are left on a small contract won't change that. Bell is another player who if traded today wouldn't bring much back for the Nationals.

 

Mancini is probably the only one who would cost the most to obtain in a trade otherwise the only other choice is Gallo at 1B who has a lot of value and could be had in a trade. Bell, Moran and others have very little to no value and you are talking about trading someone that is very far down on a teams prospect list.

 

A fair trade for Moran would be someone like Medina, Dillard, Wiemer or Fry. That would be a one for one trade but we all know majority of trades are not one for one in MLB so lets break that down even further. To get to Moran's value you are looking at something like this in a more realistic MLB trade: Ward, Crawford and Spanberger. That right there is what Moran would cost in a trade and to me that is giving up way to much for him and giving Moran a more inflated value due to his extra years of control.

 

Now for Bell a reasonable trade for him would look something like this: Erceg, File and Fry. Bell is having a bad season so I doubt the Nationals will try and move him now as his value is going to be extremely low.

 

Mancini is the hardest player to figure out a trade for since Ashby is more than likely off the table. That leaves Turang and I don't see the Brewers trading Turang for a 1B. The only way I see the Brewers getting Mancini is if the Orioles really like Hiura and they think they can fix him then something like Hiura, Small and Dillard makes some sense here for both the Orioles and the Brewers. This would all depend on what the Orioles think of Small and Hiura but that is the only trade that I can think of that makes sense for both the Brewers and Orioles without including Ashby or Turang in the trade. Mitchell is also not available unless we are talking about someone like Chapman then Mitchell would become available I believe. With a Chapman trade it is trying to find that 2nd piece that is the hard part. I think Zamora is someone that the A's would want as he screams a player they would be high on but he would be the third or fourth piece in the trade. I don't believe the Brewers would include both Turang and Mitchell in one trade unless that player was like a Yelich type.

 

Aguilar is a little tougher as I am not sure what the Marlins would be looking for there but something starting with Warren probably makes the most sense after that I am not sure.

[StearnsFTW]

Man, I would not be happy if they traded Kelly for a guy like Moran. Yeesh.

[adambr2]

Moran is fine as a target but he is entirely just a guy in terms of value. Not saying he's worth nothing but it isn't much.

 

 

I think we overrate Kelly a little bit, but I wouldn't do Kelly for Moran. Moran’s value I think is a little closer to an Alec Bettinger type arm.

[StearnsFTW]

Agree on Kelly's value. He's the kind of arm you can dream on though. Not giving up that 1%(?) chance he becomes an ace for a guy like Moran.

 

Bettinger? Sure.

[Jopal78]

Moran is fine as a target but he is entirely just a guy in terms of value. Not saying he's worth nothing but it isn't much.

 

 

I think we overrate Kelly a little bit, but I wouldn't do Kelly for Moran. Moran’s value I think is a little closer to an Alec Bettinger type arm.

 

I really don't understand the Antoine Kelly thing; Is this a case of rose colored glasses for Brewer prospects? Because as I see it, Kelly had a power arm but was a 2nd round pick (not that its a bad thing, but it indicates what the front offices thought his chance of making the majors were when he turned pro); and to date he has 3 innings above Rookie ball.

 

Now from all accounts the team's brass raved how he was he was taught how to throw secondary pitches, and then refined those secondary pitches at the alternate training site last summer. However, after summer camp in 2020, he developed thoracic outlet syndrome and had big time surgery as a result. Thoracic outlet syndrome has been actually or effectively a career ender for a significant amount of pitchers who have had it: Chris Carpenter '11, Shaun Marcum '13, Josh Beckett '13, Tyson Ross '15, Mike Adams '12, Tyler Thornburg '17, Matt Harvey '18, Phil Hughes '16, Chris Archer(?) and certainly a greater number than the ones who have managed to make it back. Without a doubt the surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome has a far lower success rate than Tommy John surgery.

 

It would be a great story for Antoine Kelly to power through his injuries and make it to the majors and find success there. Unfortunately, as a 2nd round pick, who hasn't really pitched yet outside of instructional leagues, and has already suffered a devastating shoulder injury, the odds are stacked against him to even get to the majors. Other teams know this, and that is why his value in any trade is nill. I would argue that since the Brewers have a million dollar bonus invested in him, he is more valuable to them than to any other team because they may not show the same patience as Milwaukke because they don't have a million dollars invested in the guy.

[Simba2020]

I would almost be stunned if Moran wasn't non-tendered before he ever reaches free agency.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I really don't understand the Antoine Kelly thing; Is this a case of rose colored glasses for Brewer prospects? Because as I see it, Kelly had a power arm but was a 2nd round pick (not that its a bad thing, but it indicates what the front offices thought his chance of making the majors were when he turned pro); and to date he has 3 innings above Rookie ball.

 

Now from all accounts the team's brass raved how he was he was taught how to throw secondary pitches, and then refined those secondary pitches at the alternate training site last summer. However, after summer camp in 2020, he developed thoracic outlet syndrome and had big time surgery as a result. Thoracic outlet syndrome has been actually or effectively a career ender for a significant amount of pitchers who have had it: Chris Carpenter '11, Shaun Marcum '13, Josh Beckett '13, Tyson Ross '15, Mike Adams '12, Tyler Thornburg '17, Matt Harvey '18, Phil Hughes '16, Chris Archer(?) and certainly a greater number than the ones who have managed to make it back. Without a doubt the surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome has a far lower success rate than Tommy John surgery.

 

It would be a great story for Antoine Kelly to power through his injuries and make it to the majors and find success there. Unfortunately, as a 2nd round pick, who hasn't really pitched yet outside of instructional leagues, and has already suffered a devastating shoulder injury, the odds are stacked against him to even get to the majors. Other teams know this, and that is why his value in any trade is nill. I would argue that since the Brewers have a million dollar bonus invested in him, he is more valuable to them than to any other team because they may not show the same patience as Milwaukke because they don't have a million dollars invested in the guy.

I think you kind of answered your own question to some degree. The value you are going to get for him post-injury is small enough where you might as well let it ride given the upside if he does get all the way back.

[BallFour]

The one positive for Kelly is that he got the surgery early in his career. Seems like those guys have better luck then the guys that have more mileage on their arms. Hopefully he can be on the Mike Foltynewicz/Alex Cobb spectrum, age 23 when they got the surgery. Compared to a guy like Jeremy Bonderman age 25 whose MLB career was over shortly after.