Prospective trade deadline targets?

[Eye Black]

Are you talking about Nolan Arenado, the guy that is hitting roughly the same in St. Louis as he did on the road for the Rockies?

I guess it depends on what metrics you trust. If you look at raw OPS, then he looks closer to the player he was on the road in Colorado. If you use a stat that’s adjusted to both ballpark effects and league run environment such as wRC+, then Arenado has currently performed somewhere in between his previous home/road splits.

 

Away Stats in Colorado

2255 PA / .793 OPS / 108 wRC+

 

Home Stats in Colorado

2303 PA / .985 OPS / 128 wRC+

 

St. Louis Cardinals

281 PA / .809 OPS / 120 wRC+

 

Arenado’s overall wRC+ with the Rockies (both home and road combined) was 118. So nearly identical to what he’s been in St. Louis so far.

 

 

I'd expect not much different from McMahon. David Dahl is another guy that continued to not hit out of Coors.

 

Dickerson for some short stints and DJL are exceptions and I think there are reasonable explanations there, and I think the DJL juiced ball explanation definitely plays.

There has been research done on this previously by Mike Petriello and Jeff Sullivan.

 

Sullivan found that the previous Rockies player home/road splits were less indicative of what to expect going forward than a player’s overall wRC+ (counting both home and road stats).

 

Petriello found that with his test cases (Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Chris Iannetta, Clint Barmes) their decrease in home production with their new team was offset by their increase in road production.

 

Here’s Petriello’s summary in his own words:

 

This is why you can't just take the road stats for a Colorado player and project them across an entire season -- because a Rockies hitter is likely to do better on the road once he's not calling Denver home, as nonsensical as that sounds. Put it this way: they'll lose their home-field advantage, but they won't be at as much of a disadvantage elsewhere.

 

Let's take one more approach, this time turning to OPS+, which accounts for park effects and is set so that 100 is "league average." How did this group do after leaving Colorado?

 

Every single one improved, except for Barmes, who basically hit at his established averages no matter where he was. While five players is admittedly not a huge sample, there's no evidence that a Rockies hitter who goes elsewhere and gets regular playing time is going to fall apart.

 

 

Back to Ryan McMahon, his sample size for 2021 is admittedly pretty small, especially when you cut it in half for home/road splits. His overall wRC+ this season is 106 (home wRC+ is 111; road wRC+ is 99). As that suggests I would expect him to be a slightly better than league average hitter overall (~105), although the lack of previous track record is certainly a good reason to proceed with caution.

 

Barely above league average production doesn’t even sound that enticing until you consider the Brewers have a league worst 60 wRC+ combined from their third baseman this year. I guess if Wong stays healthy maybe the plan to have Urias cover 3B for the remainder of the season is enough. I do agree with those that have concerns about the acquisition cost for McMahon, the Rockies will likely want a package beyond what you’d expect a league average corner infielder with 2.5 years of control remaining to command.

[Jopal78]

 

Donaldson is still a productive player, but he's showing a lot of signs of fading, and at his age - 35 - he's unlikely to get better. Still, if he could stay healthy, he could easily be a 2.0-2.5 WAR player. Solid defense, some power, modest average.

.

 

This is where it always becomes bizzaro world in these trade proposals. The player gets denigrated in order to justify proposing to acquire them for garbage. In this case, does Donaldson suck (showing a lot of signs of fading and lots of guaranteed money remaining)? If so, why would the Brewers want him? On the other hand if he’s easily a 2-2.5 WAR player why would the Twins trade him, especially for a surplus outfielder.

Twins make the move if they don't believe in their team for 2021. They have the 5th worst team in baseball right now. At what point do they throw in the towel and look towards the future? Salary flexibility is nice to have. They save $44M or so by making the deal. That's why they do it.

 

A 2-2.5 WAR 3B definitely does not suck. No one said he did. Considering our corner IF production, he's a positive - even if he's not an all-star level player like he was a few years back.

 

Right, now take a look at the Twins roster and future payroll commitments. They have a couple players in the 10+ million AAV, but otherwise Donaldson is the only big co tract they have. Thus, they don’t need to move him for payroll flexibility, unless as you mention they are going to break up their team, in which case they’d most likely sell him off to the highest bidder which won’t be Milwaukee and/or include JBJ

[ThisIsMyCrew]

5ish war player. With ops north of 800. Good defense. Will gladly take that player at Coors or not.

[adambr2]

Yeah let's not kid ourselves, Arenado is still a really good player. He is not the problem for St Louis.

[bill hAll Star]

Of course Arenado is a great player.

 

The argument is that in general, I am not putting weight into their batting stats overall. Most guys take a huge hit out of Coors. A superstar like Arenado will hit like just an All Star in most other parks. I’d take the same with Story. Ditto on Tulo back in the day. DJL is a bit of an anomaly, though he seems to be back down to earth.

 

The difference is that guys like McMahon, who might be fine to have in the lineup - I would not take him for his bat. Maybe a slight upgrade over Shaw is all we need...but that’s all he is.

 

Arenado is a great player but I question STL’s timing. Nothing against trying to remain competitive but that roster isn’t great overall and I wouldn’t want to be paying Arenado’s contract starting in 2-3 years.

[titletownking]

With the Rays calling up Franco, I wonder if Brosseau will be available. Can play anywhere in the infield and would be a young controllable asset with positional flexibility. Not that far removed from a tremendous season and we know how hitters struggle in the trop.

[DoubleSwitch]

With the Rays calling up Franco, I wonder if Brosseau will be available. Can play anywhere in the infield and would be a young controllable asset with positional flexibility. Not that far removed from a tremendous season and we know how hitters struggle in the trop.

 

Brosseau has minor league options there's no reason to trade him at a low point in his value

[bill hAll Star]

Sure, there's the slight home/road split to consider with Brousseau, but the more important split is one negatively affecting him like the Coors splits are his L/R splits. Brousseau needs to be paired with a lefty. So maybe he works with Vogelbach and Wong spelling them a bit but he's not a very high priority unless we are just anointing Urias the full-time 3B and all we need is a RH platoon bat for the right side of the infield.

[Jopal78]

Wade Miley? He's keeping the ball in the ballpark despite pitching in Cincinnati, FIP of 3.31 and a K:BB ratio of 3:1. The Brewers could always use additional arms.

 

He is being paid 8 million dollars this year and has 1 million dollar buyout of a club option of 2022 ($10 million), however the relatively cheap club option might mean the Reds aren't going to give him away to a division rival.

[bill hAll Star]

The Reds given they went somewhat "all-in" last year and some of the contracts stretch a few years are probably going to try to keep going and see if they can snatch the division or Wild Card. They're alive right now.

 

Obviously, things can change if they're 10 games out in 3 weeks.

 

I think they have a legitimate chance if Sonny, Mous, and I guess Senzel return for them.

[wibadgers23]

Just go out and get Aguilar. The Marlins are going nowhere this year and I’m sure he’d cost a lot less than a guy like Mancini.

[Lathund]

I think the deadline could be approached in multiple ways, and while I would choose the one of going for cheap (Which usually means rentals) acquisitions that target key weaknesses, there is of course the ability to go somewhat bigger, and go for a player that would cost more in terms of prospects. Before the Adames trade, a guy like Story would have been a possibility.

 

But if we went down that route now, who I'd go for is Joey Gallo. A LHH who can play 1B, 3B and all outfield spots (And is actually a very good defender in LF/RF) and is a career 113 wRC+ hitter and 123 so far this year. Now he's someone who would probably drive certain fans mad in that his offensive profile is highly unique, perhaps best illustrated by the fact that he went two full seasons (2018 and 2019) where he hit more HRs than singles in that span; he's probably the most extreme TTO player that has seen sustained success. But he gets results, is a great fit positionally, there's a decent chance he's available (Though he's also a reasonable extension candidate for the Rangers given that he's only 27 still), and with 1½ years of control is not a rental. The extra year also means a higher acquisition cost, probably higher than I'd like to pay given the state of the farm. But not to the point where it's not doable.

 

Again though I don't think it's all that likely. He'll be one of the more sought after guys at the deadline, and other teams are better equipped for a bidding war. But you never know, so they should (and I'm sure they are) looking at it. If a LHH 1B/3B is the goal, Colin Moran would be another possibility. With the added bonus that he'll no longer OPS .892 against us. 2½ years of control there though so the Priates could and would ask a fair bit.

 

As for the recent discussion; I think that if closer to the deadline it doesn't look like Hiura will be a contributor, that's when you start looking at the 1B-only types like Cron or Aguilar. Until then I think the best bet is a 3B with some versatility.

[Jopal78]

Here are some players the Brewers could certainly use who play for teams who will most likely (absent a significant hot streak) be sellers given their position in their division/league. All these players are on expiring contracts which should make them affordable in terms of the prospects required to get them.

 

Charlie Morton (Braves are sub .500, 10th best team in NL, 3rd in NL East)

Alex Cobb (Angels are .500, tied as 9th best team in AL, 4th in AL West)

Raisel Iglesias (Angels)

Danny Duffy (Royals are sub .500, 11th best team in AL, 3rd in AL Central)

Eduardo Escobar (Diamondbacks)

Daniel Hudson (Nationals are sub. 500, 11th best team in NL, 4th in NL East)

Mychal Givens (Rockies are sub .500, 13th best team in NL, 4th in NL West)

Ian Kennedy (Rangers are sub .500, 14th best team in AL, 5th in AL West)

Hansel Robles (Twins are sub .500, 12th best team in AL, 4th in AL Central

Asdrubel Cabrera (Diamondbacks)

 

Unfortunately for the Brewers the inventory of "rentals" who play corner infield spots isn't great. Freddie Freeman would be a rental, but even if the Braves are out of it, there seems zero chance they would trade the reigning MVP.

[wntrtxn21]

Here are some players the Brewers could certainly use who play for teams who will most likely (absent a significant hot streak) be sellers given their position in their division/league. All these players are on expiring contracts which should make them affordable in terms of the prospects required to get them.

 

Charlie Morton (Braves are sub .500, 10th best team in NL, 3rd in NL East)

Alex Cobb (Angels are .500, tied as 9th best team in AL, 4th in AL West)

Raisel Iglesias (Angels)

Danny Duffy (Royals are sub .500, 11th best team in AL, 3rd in AL Central)

Eduardo Escobar (Diamondbacks)

Daniel Hudson (Nationals are sub. 500, 11th best team in NL, 4th in NL East)

Mychal Givens (Rockies are sub .500, 13th best team in NL, 4th in NL West)

Ian Kennedy (Rangers are sub .500, 14th best team in AL, 5th in AL West)

Hansel Robles (Twins are sub .500, 12th best team in AL, 4th in AL Central

Asdrubel Cabrera (Diamondbacks)

 

Unfortunately for the Brewers the inventory of "rentals" who play corner infield spots isn't great. Freddie Freeman would be a rental, but even if the Braves are out of it, there seems zero chance they would trade the reigning MVP.

 

The only guy I would absolutely not want is Duffy. He's Anderson or worse and high cost. Cabrera has been awful since he came back from injury. 3 for 36 with 12 Ks. I'd probably pass on him too. Escobar has a very low OBP (.288) but would help. He has some pop with the bat and is a switch hitter who can play 3B. He'd probably be the easiest to get. Morton and Cobb both would be huge additions to the staff down the stretch. Hudson is another guy CC would love to have behind Hader in the pen. Nice to think about what could be.

[Warning Track Power]

With Vogelbach hurt and Hiura not ready, have to imagine Stearns is calling around tonight to find a 1B. Aguilar is the first that comes to mind but who else?

[Eye Black]

With Vogelbach hurt and Hiura not ready, have to imagine Stearns is calling around tonight to find a 1B. Aguilar is the first that comes to mind but who else?

The potentially available 1B options in order of likely availability (from most available to least available):

 

CJ Cron

Jesus Aguilar

Colin Moran

Josh Bell

Carlos Santana

Trey Mancini

 

A couple of wild cards are Joey Gallo who is likely available for a semi-steep price and plays primarily OF but can play 1B, and Jeimer Candelario who can play both 3B and 1B.

[Jopal78]

With Vogelbach hurt and Hiura not ready, have to imagine Stearns is calling around tonight to find a 1B. Aguilar is the first that comes to mind but who else?

The potentially available 1B options in order of likely availability (from most available to least available):

 

CJ Cron

Jesus Aguilar

Colin Moran

Josh Bell

Carlos Santana

Trey Mancini

 

A couple of wild cards are Joey Gallo who is likely available for a semi-steep price and plays primarily OF but can play 1B, and Jeimer Candelario who can play both 3B and 1B.

 

Let's be realistic: Jesus Aguilar, Colin Moran, Trey Mancini, Josh Bell, Joey Gallo and Candalerio come with additional team control beyond 2021, therefore it will definitely be a seller's market for those players if their current teams decide to move them at all this year.

 

As for Carlos Santana, comes with a 10.5 million dollar guarantee for 2022 and given his production the Royals aren't likely desperate to move him, or willing to eat cash to do so. Which probably makes it less likely he would be a trade target for Milwaukee (not to mention if Hiura somehow manages to 'find' it he wouldn't have an everyday spot with Milwaukee until 2023).

 

That really leaves Cron who is okay, but as one of the few true "rentals" who hits for power and plays first base, I imagine there will be substantial interest.

[SRB]

A guy who can play both 1B/3B would be ideal. Colin Moran or Asdrubal Cabrera would be decent options.

[Warning Track Power]

I think the 1B hole has become rather large at this point and filling it correctly could be the difference between a deep playoff run and potentially missing the playoffs. For the right player, I would be willing to part with a Turang level prospect. Not sure who that player is but I would have to think the Brewers would be willing to go high as Antoine Kelly for a Aguilar, Moran or Bell. I’d agree with it too.

[umphrey]

I think Mancini and Gallo are the only expensive guys there. No one wants a 2nd year of Aguilar that badly, etc.

[Jopal78]

I think the 1B hole has become rather large at this point and filling it correctly could be the difference between a deep playoff run and potentially missing the playoffs. For the right player, I would be willing to part with a Turang level prospect. Not sure who that player is but I would have to think the Brewers would be willing to go high as Antoine Kelly for a Aguilar, Moran or Bell. I’d agree with it too.

 

Antoine Kelly would not have the value you think he has. First, he had a major surgical procedure on his throwing shoulder last fall and will miss most if not all of 2021, he has yet to really pitch above Rookie ball, and the next time he throws in a game it would be his first time since August of 2019.

 

No GM is going to trade a cost controlled major league player for Antoine Kelly. I'm not sure the Brewers could get any of the players you mention above for Turang alone.

[nate82]

I think the 1B hole has become rather large at this point and filling it correctly could be the difference between a deep playoff run and potentially missing the playoffs. For the right player, I would be willing to part with a Turang level prospect. Not sure who that player is but I would have to think the Brewers would be willing to go high as Antoine Kelly for a Aguilar, Moran or Bell. I’d agree with it too.

 

Antoine Kelly would not have the value you think he has. First, he had a major surgical procedure on his throwing shoulder last fall and will miss most if not all of 2021, he has yet to really pitch above Rookie ball, and the next time he throws in a game it would be his first time since August of 2019.

 

No GM is going to trade a cost controlled major league player for Antoine Kelly. I'm not sure the Brewers could get any of the players you mention above for Turang alone.

 

You are over valuing those players and under valuing Turang and Kelly. Aguilar, Moran and Bell don't have that much value. It is a buyers market at 1B. There is maybe one or two teams with a need at 1B and about 5 players who are available who can play 1B.

 

Aguilar is only worth someone like Kelly, Ward, etc. Turang is a top 100 prospect talent Aguilar is not worth that. The Nationals would be lucky to get Kelly in return for Bell.

 

Moran is just a guy and not worth all that much in a trade.

[Jopal78]

 

 

 

You are over valuing those players and under valuing Turang and Kelly. Aguilar, Moran and Bell don't have that much value. It is a buyers market at 1B. There is maybe one or two teams with a need at 1B and about 5 players who are available who can play 1B.

 

Aguilar is only worth someone like Kelly, Ward, etc. Turang is a top 100 prospect talent Aguilar is not worth that. The Nationals would be lucky to get Kelly in return for Bell.

 

Moran is just a guy and not worth all that much in a trade.

 

I’ve said this before; you can’t have it both ways. If Moran is ‘just a guy’ why would the Brewers need him. Save the resources and just play what you’ve got at 3B or 1B.

 

You also have to consider even middling free agents are being paid 7-10 million per year in the majors in 2021. This productive players like Aguilar and Bell have quite a bit of value because they have additional team control beyond 2021 and at affordable rates, and for that same reason the Nationals and Marlins don’t need to move them unless they get some nice talent in return.

 

As for Kelly, nobody is undervaluing him. He’s a 2nd round, rookie ball pitcher with one game in A ball, who underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome (a frequent career ended.... Tyler Thornburg amongst others), and he hasn’t pitched yet. What exactly would a competent GM give for that?

 

Turang is a Top 100 prospect but he’s a middle infielder not a starting pitcher or elite hitting prospect, who’s years away. Nice prospect but no sure thing.

[sveumrules]

I’ve said this before; you can’t have it both ways. If Moran is ‘just a guy’ why would the Brewers need him. Save the resources and just play what you’ve got at 3B or 1B.

 

Brewers 3B have posted an 87 wRC+ so far this year, Brewers 1B are at 79 wRC+.

 

Colin Moran is both "just a guy" and would also represent an upgrade with a 114 wRC+ so far this year & a 107 wRC+ ZiPS projection for the rest of the season.

[Jopal78]

I’ve said this before; you can’t have it both ways. If Moran is ‘just a guy’ why would the Brewers need him. Save the resources and just play what you’ve got at 3B or 1B.

 

Brewers 3B have posted an 87 wRC+ so far this year, Brewers 1B are at 79 wRC+.

 

Colin Moran is both "just a guy" and would also represent an upgrade with a 114 wRC+ so far this year & a 107 wRC+ ZiPS projection for the rest of the season.

 

...and Moran’s career OPS is higher than that of Mike Moustakas (a 16 million dollar a year player). There’s a similarity to all of these proposals: identify a target that can help the team, then denigrate the target player so it makes sense to propose acquiring them for garbage.

 

I’m sure Moran is available but with him not being a free agent until after 2022 he’s not likely going to be traded this year absent a killer offer and certainly not for a pile of crap from Milwaukee