Prospective trade deadline targets?

[Roderick]

https://theathletic.com/2653349/2021/06/16/mlb-trade-deadline-primer-buyers-sellers-and-teams-that-could-go-either-way/?source=dailyemail

 

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are built to succeed in the postseason, if they can get there. They have three top-of-the-rotation starters in Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, and two shutdown back-of-the-bullpen relievers in Josh Hader and Devin Williams. They are an elite defensive team, when healthy, with Gold Glove winners up the middle and in the corner outfield positions. But do the Brewers have enough offense to make the playoffs? At the deadline, they should be targeting Kyle Seager of the Mariners and considering reunions with former Brewers like Jesús Aguilar of the Marlins or Mike Moustakas of the Reds. Taking on bad contracts (Seager, Moustakas) is a more realistic option for Milwaukee because it has a weak farm system and little to offer in trades.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What about Rockies infielder Ryan McMahon?

 

According to Baseball Reference he’s been worth 2.6 WAR so far this season. He’s under team control for two more years after this one. He’s only 26 years old, and has played every infield position during his career (although I wouldn’t suggest ever playing him at shortstop where he’s played just 3.0 innings in the majors). His defensive metrics have completely flipped towards the positive this season while he’s split time between 3B and 2B. He is a left handed hitter, and he’d give the Brewers flexibility to shift between 3B and 1B, basically a much better version Travis Shaw.

 

He'd be a terrific target. I'd worry what the cost would be, though. It would definitely be a "sell high" deal for the Rockies.

[Outlander]

I would be leery trading with the Rockies, the price tag probably wouldn't justify the production away from Coors Field.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would be leery trading with the Rockies, the price tag probably wouldn't justify the production away from Coors Field.

 

I think the "production away from Coors" thing is a little overblown. DJ Lemahieu certainly did well after leaving Colorado. Arenado has been good. Matt Holliday had some nice years after leaving Colorado. Larry Walker was good for the Cardinals after the Rockies dealt him.

[wntrtxn21]

I would be leery trading with the Rockies, the price tag probably wouldn't justify the production away from Coors Field.

 

I think the "production away from Coors" thing is a little overblown. DJ Lemahieu certainly did well after leaving Colorado. Arenado has been good. Matt Holliday had some nice years after leaving Colorado. Larry Walker was good for the Cardinals after the Rockies dealt him.

 

McMahon's splits are drastic away from Coors: BA .275/.206 - OPS .867/.641 - HRs 37/17

[Eye Black]

McMahon's splits are drastic away from Coors: BA .275/.206 - OPS .867/.641 - HRs 37/17

As are most Rockies players, including the previously mentioned Nolan Arenado. There are explanations that go beyond just looking at the road stats to find the player’s likely true value. One thing working against their road splits is that balls break less in Colorado, so often Rockies players are having to go back and forth from home to road venues adjusting to the same pitches acting very differently. In the case of several players, as RRB suggested, they’ve adjusted when they’ve left Coors to play in a more normalized environment for the majority of season.

 

In the case of McMahon, it appears he’s also been victim to some bad batted ball luck on the road this year.

[Outlander]

I would be leery trading with the Rockies, the price tag probably wouldn't justify the production away from Coors Field.

 

I think the "production away from Coors" thing is a little overblown. DJ Lemahieu certainly did well after leaving Colorado. Arenado has been good. Matt Holliday had some nice years after leaving Colorado. Larry Walker was good for the Cardinals after the Rockies dealt him.

That is great if they are perennial All-Stars or borderline HOF players but the list is a lot longer for guys that don't fit that category and are not as productive elsewhere.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would be leery trading with the Rockies, the price tag probably wouldn't justify the production away from Coors Field.

 

I think the "production away from Coors" thing is a little overblown. DJ Lemahieu certainly did well after leaving Colorado. Arenado has been good. Matt Holliday had some nice years after leaving Colorado. Larry Walker was good for the Cardinals after the Rockies dealt him.

That is great if they are perennial All-Stars or borderline HOF players but the list is a lot longer for guys that don't fit that category and are not as productive elsewhere.

 

Lemahieu was a good player with the Rockies, but I certainly wouldn't call him a superstar. The contract he signed with the Yankees didn't reflect that, either. But his numbers actually jumped after leaving Colorado.

[sveumrules]

I would be leery trading with the Rockies, the price tag probably wouldn't justify the production away from Coors Field.

 

I think the "production away from Coors" thing is a little overblown. DJ Lemahieu certainly did well after leaving Colorado. Arenado has been good. Matt Holliday had some nice years after leaving Colorado. Larry Walker was good for the Cardinals after the Rockies dealt him.

 

Those players all had much longer/better track records than McMahon.

 

Before his 264 PAs with a 115 OPS+ this year he had posted an 83 OPS+ over 958 PAs. For whatever it is or isn't worth, publicly available projections have McMahon between 96-114 wRC+ compared to 116-123 for Vogelbach.

 

It's also looking like DJL may have been one of the bigger beneficiaries of the juicier balls the last couple years as he's posting a 93 OPS+ so far this year over 284 PAs, which is identical to the mark he posted in his 3737 career PAs with Colorado.

[Eye Black]

Those players all had much longer/better track records than McMahon.

 

Before his 264 PAs with a 115 OPS+ this year he had posted an 83 OPS+ over 958 PAs. For whatever it is or isn't worth, publicly available projections have McMahon between 96-114 wRC+ compared to 116-123 for Vogelbach.

That’s certainly a fair criticism, but he also turned 26 years old this past off-season which is in line with the timing of when many hitters begin the window of their peak years. He may be playing a bit over his head this season, but he’s probably also a legitimately better hitter than he was at 23 or 24.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Those players all had much longer/better track records than McMahon.

 

Before his 264 PAs with a 115 OPS+ this year he had posted an 83 OPS+ over 958 PAs. For whatever it is or isn't worth, publicly available projections have McMahon between 96-114 wRC+ compared to 116-123 for Vogelbach.

That’s certainly a fair criticism, but he also turned 26 years old this past off-season which is in line with the timing of when many hitters begin the window of their peak years. He may be playing a bit over his head this season, but he’s probably also a legitimately better hitter than he was at 23 or 24.

 

It's also possible that he may be a guy who could benefit from being put in a set position, rather than being bounced around between 1st, 2nd and 3rd, as he has his whole career so far with the Rockies.

[wibadgers23]

I’m so sick of the ongoing corner infield issues and just the offense in general that I’d be willing to give up just about anything to get Ramirez from Cleveland. Some combination of Mitchell, Turang, Hiura, Small, etc. Throw in the competitive draft pick if possible - whatever it takes. Still not sure if that gets it done but I hope Stearns at least makes an attempt. Let’s not waste this epic starting rotation with a horrid offense.

[MadThinker88]

I’m so sick of the ongoing corner infield issues and just the offense in general that I’d be willing to give up just about anything to get Ramirez from Cleveland. Some combination of Mitchell, Turang, Hiura, Small, etc. Throw in the competitive draft pick if possible - whatever it takes. Still not sure if that gets it done but I hope Stearns at least makes an attempt. Let’s not waste this epic starting rotation with a horrid offense.

 

It will not be enough...

It (a trade of JRam) is not happening in 2021..

 

Better to focus energies on getting Makil Franco from Baltimore or another team that is buried & perhaps looking to sell at this point (Twins/ DBacks/ Tigers/ Rangers) to get reinforcements for different spots...

[Warning Track Power]

McMahon's splits are drastic away from Coors: BA .275/.206 - OPS .867/.641 - HRs 37/17

I would certainly be interested in dealing for McMahon. Young enough to fill a role for a few years and think the Rockies might be interested in dealing him for their next competitive window. Another interesting thing about his splits, his AVG/OBP spread at home is 32 points (.294/.326) whereas the spread on the road is 63 (.224/.287). Maybe a more aggressive approach on the road is needed for McMahon.

 

I certainly wouldn't give up Mitchell, Ashby, or Small for him. However, with Adames and Urias in the fold, I might entertain a Turang deal if they were to include some pen help like Mychal Givens.

[Jopal78]

I saw it floated on The Athletic, but what about Mike Moustakas?

 

The Reds already cut significant payroll from 2020 by trading away Rasiel Iglesias and non-tendering Archie Bradley, and despite a hot streak are looking up at multiple teams in the Division. Moreover, they also will have some big salary increases with Winker, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. Perhaps Cincinnati would be willing to move on from Moustakas (.233/.335/.456 as a Red), the Reds may even be willing to eat a little salary to move the majority of the approximately 45 million remaining ( half of 2021, 2022, and 2023) on his contract. As a straight salary dump, the Brewers could probably get away with sending some low level minor leaguers in exchange.

[pacopete4]

I don’t really want to pay another guy $16M to be a part time player for the next couple of seasons. It was a great move not to sign him and it’s a better move to find a different option.

[pacopete4]

If Jose Ramirez is available, and his contract truly is team options with no early outs, you go make that deal with the remaining chips we have.

 

1. Wong- 2B

2. Ramirez- 3B

3. Yelich- LF

4. Garcia- RF

5. Narvaez- C

6. Vogelback- 1B

7. Adames- SS

8. Cain/JBJ/Taylor- CF

 

Bench:

Pina, Urias, Robertson, Taylor/JBJ/Cain

 

And now you have something to go along with a very good pitching staff. If any other upgrades, it'd be to help extend the pen at least one more arm.

[Warning Track Power]

I saw it floated on The Athletic, but what about Mike Moustakas?

I would be into acquiring Moose. However, it would have to include money on the Reds end, as well as being a lesser type prospect. Moose is owed $34m in 2022 and 2023, and has a $4m buyout in 2024. 2 years, $38m...I would want $10m-$14m back and would be willing to send a prospect like Lutz or Joe Gray Jr.

 

That would be about the extent of my interest.

[brewers888]

I saw it floated on The Athletic, but what about Mike Moustakas?

I would be into acquiring Moose. However, it would have to include money on the Reds end, as well as being a lesser type prospect. Moose is owed $34m in 2022 and 2023, and has a $4m buyout in 2024. 2 years, $38m...I would want $10m-$14m back and would be willing to send a prospect like Lutz or Joe Gray Jr.

 

That would be about the extent of my interest.

 

No thanks on Moustakas and definitely no way should we trade Gray for him.

[adambr2]

If Jose Ramirez is available, and his contract truly is team options with no early outs, you go make that deal with the remaining chips we have.

 

1. Wong- 2B

2. Ramirez- 3B

3. Yelich- LF

4. Garcia- RF

5. Narvaez- C

6. Vogelback- 1B

7. Adames- SS

8. Cain/JBJ/Taylor- CF

 

Bench:

Pina, Urias, Robertson, Taylor/JBJ/Cain

 

And now you have something to go along with a very good pitching staff. If any other upgrades, it'd be to help extend the pen at least one more arm.

 

I can't imagine that Ramirez is actually available especially considering the Indians are 10 games over 500. If Ramirez was actually made available I think there would be quite the bidding war for him.

[MadThinker88]

If Jose Ramirez is available, and his contract truly is team options with no early outs, you go make that deal with the remaining chips we have.

 

1. Wong- 2B

2. Ramirez- 3B

3. Yelich- LF

4. Garcia- RF

5. Narvaez- C

6. Vogelback- 1B

7. Adames- SS

8. Cain/JBJ/Taylor- CF

 

Bench:

Pina, Urias, Robertson, Taylor/JBJ/Cain

 

And now you have something to go along with a very good pitching staff. If any other upgrades, it'd be to help extend the pen at least one more arm.

 

I can't imagine that Ramirez is actually available especially considering the Indians are 10 games over 500. If Ramirez was actually made available I think there would be quite the bidding war for him.

 

Thank you @adambr2 for those acknowledging those points (current record/ bid war if he was made available).

The point being missed is the coming roster crunch in CLE after the season.

The CLE FO has to figure out a way to add 8 to 10 of its own talented prospects (of 20+) before the R5 deadline.

Sending away JRam in any deal for a multiple player package of talent only makes that roster crunch worse.

 

If they are still in the mix as the deadline gets closer, it is more likely CLE takes a lower prospect (ie non-top 100 overall / non-top 15 prospect in its own system) to acquire a rental player or 2.

[reillymcshane]

 

Donaldson is still a productive player, but he's showing a lot of signs of fading, and at his age - 35 - he's unlikely to get better. Still, if he could stay healthy, he could easily be a 2.0-2.5 WAR player. Solid defense, some power, modest average.

.

 

This is where it always becomes bizzaro world in these trade proposals. The player gets denigrated in order to justify proposing to acquire them for garbage. In this case, does Donaldson suck (showing a lot of signs of fading and lots of guaranteed money remaining)? If so, why would the Brewers want him? On the other hand if he’s easily a 2-2.5 WAR player why would the Twins trade him, especially for a surplus outfielder.

Twins make the move if they don't believe in their team for 2021. They have the 5th worst team in baseball right now. At what point do they throw in the towel and look towards the future? Salary flexibility is nice to have. They save $44M or so by making the deal. That's why they do it.

 

A 2-2.5 WAR 3B definitely does not suck. No one said he did. Considering our corner IF production, he's a positive - even if he's not an all-star level player like he was a few years back.

[Warning Track Power]

I know Big Dan has been playing much better recently, but it still is surprising to me that Jesus Aguilar has not been re-acquired yet. I don't know about anyone else but Jesus coming back just feels inevitable. That bat and personality would be an amazing addition and not just because he is a former Brewer. He'd truly be a difference maker in my opinion.

[bill hAll Star]

McMahon's splits are drastic away from Coors: BA .275/.206 - OPS .867/.641 - HRs 37/17

As are most Rockies players, including the previously mentioned Nolan Arenado. There are explanations that go beyond just looking at the road stats to find the player’s likely true value. One thing working against their road splits is that balls break less in Colorado, so often Rockies players are having to go back and forth from home to road venues adjusting to the same pitches acting very differently. In the case of several players, as RRB suggested, they’ve adjusted when they’ve left Coors to play in a more normalized environment for the majority of season.

 

In the case of McMahon, it appears he’s also been victim to some bad batted ball luck on the road this year.

 

Are you talking about Nolan Arenado, the guy that is hitting roughly the same in St. Louis as he did on the road for the Rockies?

 

I'd expect not much different from McMahon. David Dahl is another guy that continued to not hit out of Coors.

 

Dickerson for some short stints and DJL are exceptions and I think there are reasonable explanations there, and I think the DJL juiced ball explanation definitely plays.

[JohnBriggs12]

I know Big Dan has been playing much better recently, but it still is surprising to me that Jesus Aguilar has not been re-acquired yet. I don't know about anyone else but Jesus coming back just feels inevitable. That bat and personality would be an amazing addition and not just because he is a former Brewer. He'd truly be a difference maker in my opinion.

 

No offense to Big Dan but there's something out of whack about a 275 pound first baseman batting 2nd because of his on base skills. Give me the 275 pound guy who bats cleanup and drives in a lot of runs.