Rankings jump - 14th to 5th

[JET15]

Going into the third full week and MLB.com just pushed us from 14th to 5th in the rankings.

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/mlb-power-rankings-after-week-2

 

I'm curious as to how others feel about this given the great pitching but .533 record

[sveumrules]

I'd say that feels a little high intuitively, though 538 has our playoff odds at 50% (7th in MLB) while PECOTA has them at 68.3% (also 7th in MLB), so maybe it's not as high as it seems.

 

FanGraphs has our playoff odds at 48.7% currently which is 11th in MLB by their calculations, & also has us 11th overall so far by BaseRuns, so I'd probably put us somewhere in that seven to eleven-ish range, myself.

[JET15]

Our record PCT doesn't even break the top ten. Run diff has us in the top 5. Both of those are based on the small sample of opponents we had on the schedule.

[SeaBass]

5th definitely feels too high. The strong starting pitching is good, the run differential looks nice but it's a little early for a +14 to carry that much weight. They're still performing despite having 3 major starters on the IL. Maybe around 10th if I was making the list.

[MrTPlush]

5th definitely feels too high. The strong starting pitching is good, the run differential looks nice but it's a little early for a +14 to carry that much weight. They're still performing despite having 3 major starters on the IL. Maybe around 10th if I was making the list.

 

Well they are power rankings...which basically throws out anything but current performance to that point. Many of the teams with a better record that are below them are teams like the Royals/Giants who do not have real expectations to compete this year. So when you have a red hot pitching staff that is being hyped, a good record, and a good run differential you tend to fly up a ranking like this.

[umphrey]

Fangraphs published their power rankings earlier today and put us at 17th. And that was probably a little generous, since if you just look at the numbers we probably should drop about 7 spots from that. Because:

 

Starting pitching - great (top 5)

Offense - Garbage (bottom 2)

Relievers - Garbage (bottom 3)

[brewcrewdue80]

Fangraphs published their power rankings earlier today and put us at 17th. And that was probably a little generous, since if you just look at the numbers we probably should drop about 7 spots from that. Because:

 

Starting pitching - great (top 5)

Offense - Garbage (bottom 2)

Relievers - Garbage (bottom 3)

 

On relievers, Hader has 8Ks of the 11 outs he's recorded thus far. 0ERA. If your 9th inning guy is a lockdown somebody is going to ignore the others some bit this early in the season before trade deadline.

Offense, well 3 of ypur top 5 highest paid players are on the IL. Something also that gets an overlook.

 

5th is an easy power ranking right now after the Starting Pitching.

Come trade deadline the offense and other relievers outside of Hader will have to carry the pitching in Sept. Wonder who will be our Wade Miley/Chacin this Sept.

[adambr2]

I fully expect them to add some rental bullpen help in July. They usually do when they're contending.

 

Probably too early to figure out many specific names but I'm sure they'll be looking. Ideally it would be nice to add a really high end reliever (if a rental shouldn't cost too much), and maybe another groundball starter similar to Brett Anderson to push Houser to the pen.

 

That would be a great trade deadline to me.

[SomewhereInTime]

Fangraphs published their power rankings earlier today and put us at 17th. And that was probably a little generous, since if you just look at the numbers we probably should drop about 7 spots from that. Because:

 

Starting pitching - great (top 5)

Offense - Garbage (bottom 2)

Relievers - Garbage (bottom 3)

 

On relievers, Hader has 8Ks of the 11 outs he's recorded thus far. 0ERA. If your 9th inning guy is a lockdown somebody is going to ignore the others some bit this early in the season before trade deadline.

Offense, well 3 of ypur top 5 highest paid players are on the IL. Something also that gets an overlook.

 

5th is an easy power ranking right now after the Starting Pitching.

Come trade deadline the offense and other relievers outside of Hader will have to carry the pitching in Sept. Wonder who will be our Wade Miley/Chacin this Sept.

 

Yeah any overall bullpen numbers are misleading right now since they've had mostly large wins and several uncompetitive losses. There has been a lot of low leverage middle relief and garbage time innings.

[sveumrules]

Fangraphs published their power rankings earlier today and put us at 17th. And that was probably a little generous, since if you just look at the numbers we probably should drop about 7 spots from that. Because:

 

Starting pitching - great (top 5)

Offense - Garbage (bottom 2)

Relievers - Garbage (bottom 3)

 

Their methodology is definitely a little weird.

 

Using wRC+ for offense is fine to measure hitting, but it completely leaves out base running where the Brewers currently rank 9th.

 

FIP- is one of the better pitching metrics to measure true talent, but by doing so defense is completely excluded, with the Brewers currently ranking 1st in DRS.

[igor67]

We do currently have the 4th best run differential at +16, and if I'm remembering correctly the next closest teams are +11. So it is early enough that can change fairly quickly, but we are noticeably ahead of almost everyone at this stage.

[monty57]

The Brewers are built around pitching and defense. Here's their defense to date:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

 

They also seem to be pretty good on the base paths, but I don't know if there's a stat to show "being smart on the base paths" vs. "being dumb on the base paths." This isn't just stolen bases, but also things like going from first to third, and not running into outs. Getting a single and getting thrown out going for second looks better on the stats than a flyout, but it's still an out.

 

There are a lot of ways to build a winning team. The 2021 Brewers don't fit the mold of what most people think of, but they're scoring a lot more runs than they are giving up. If they keep up the good pitching/good defense combo, they should continue winning games.

 

There's an adage of "work smarter, not harder," so you can achieve results that leave others scratching their heads. Maybe the Brewers are just "playing smarter." Or, maybe they're just lucky and it'll all come crashing down.

[djoctagone]

the brewers remain 5th after week three.

[JET15]

the brewers remain 5th after week three.

 

and the Reds deservedly drop like a rock

[KCBrewerfan34]

With this junk offense no way should we be 5th overall. Reliever ranking is way way way to low though.

[sveumrules]

With this junk offense no way should we be 5th overall. Reliever ranking is way way way to low though.

 

MLB average so far is 4.31 runs per game, the Brewers have scored 4.33.

 

Our batters have a wRC+ of 92, so about 8% below average.

 

Considering none of Yelich, Wong or Cain are among our top 8 in PAs to this point I'd argue the offense has been fine.

 

It's definitely been fun watching them put up a 133 wRC+ with RISP so far this year, the 4th highest mark in MLB.

[KCBrewerfan34]

When your 3456 hitters have totally uncompetitive AB’s over and over again that tells me the offense isn’t fine. Tough week this week. Let’s see how we do, 4-3 would be terrific.

 

Go BREW

[MrTPlush]

So a WRC+ of 92 overall, but 133 wRC+ with RISP? That is great, maybe they are a team built to be a bit 'clutch', but that's going to coming crashing down soon enough I am sure. That being said average is pretty good considering how poorly some guys have played and the injuries we have endured. This offense also doesn't really need to excel a whole bunch if our pitching continues to be stellar.

[stoutdude04]

So a WRC+ of 92 overall, but 133 wRC+ with RISP? That is great, maybe they are a team built to be a bit 'clutch', but that's going to coming crashing down soon enough I am sure. That being said average is pretty good considering how poorly some guys have played and the injuries we have endured. This offense also doesn't really need to excel a whole bunch if our pitching continues to be stellar.

 

It does feel like the offense is different this year than in years past - in that aspect. Seemed like they could never get a hit with RISP.

[LouisEly]

Sports Illustrated has the Brewers 4th.

[MrTPlush]

So a WRC+ of 92 overall, but 133 wRC+ with RISP? That is great, maybe they are a team built to be a bit 'clutch', but that's going to coming crashing down soon enough I am sure. That being said average is pretty good considering how poorly some guys have played and the injuries we have endured. This offense also doesn't really need to excel a whole bunch if our pitching continues to be stellar.

 

It does feel like the offense is different this year than in years past - in that aspect. Seemed like they could never get a hit with RISP.

 

Luis Urias has an OPS north of .900 with RISP and Omar Narvaez is a crisp 2.269 OPS

 

Narvaez has actually been pretty clutch for the Brewers. His previous two years with the Seattle/White Sox he was pretty terrible.

[HiAndTight]

When your 3456 hitters have totally uncompetitive AB’s over and over again that tells me the offense isn’t fine. Tough week this week. Let’s see how we do, 4-3 would be terrific.

 

Go BREW

 

 

I agree...but it also feels like if we can get Yelich back and he performs just CLOSE to what he's capable of, a lot of other things will fall into place. I thin Urias is looking a lot better, having very good AB's. Cain coming back will help to stabilize the offense.

 

We've got a lot of pieces that are performing better than I'd expected. I'd written off Taylor, and while I'm sure he'll level out, he looks good. McKinney, Narvaez/Pina...

 

I'd like to see Hiura sent down to AAA for a couple weeks, hope that he can get things figured out as he looks completely lost, but other than that, if Yelly can come back and be a .290/.380/.480 type guy...which is pretty reasonable, the pieces will fall in around him.

 

So to be 13-9 with the middle of your order looking so terrible...that's reason enough to feel good about this offense coming around for me.

[Eye Black]

I think Urias is looking a lot better, having very good AB's.

I completely agree on Urias. He hasn’t fully gotten results yet, but his xwOBA (.357), hard hit % (45.7%), and barrel rate (11.2%) are by far the highest of his short career (his barrel percentage last season was 1.3%). Those numbers all rank as above average among major league hitters.

 

Last year his early results looked okay, but they were inflated by a high BABIP. This year it’s the exact opposite as he’s making much better contact, but has just a .212 BABIP. I think it’s reasonable to believe he’s someone that should run a BABIP closer to .300 over the course of a full season.