christian yelich injury thread

[roadcrew3]

I think the concern people have with the injuries is it’s just another problem he is having since he signed that deal. Until he really starts mashing at an MVP level again I think every little negative is going to raise people’s eyebrows.

 

His utter lack of power is probably the most concerning thing because it was what took him from fringe All Star to MVP. He was hitting like pre-Milwaukee days last year and this year he has as much pop as Eric Sogard. If he doesn’t get his power back this deal will be a total disaster even if he plays 162 games a year because he probably just won’t have the .900+ OPS we banked on for over a half a decade minimum.

 

Cmon he has had 30 ABs this year, his power hasn’t turned Sogard level...small sample size that looks more extreme since its early in the season. Last year was his career worst year yet half of his hits went for extra bases.

[SeaBass]

I think the concern people have with the injuries is it’s just another problem he is having since he signed that deal. Until he really starts mashing at an MVP level again I think every little negative is going to raise people’s eyebrows.

 

His utter lack of power is probably the most concerning thing because it was what took him from fringe All Star to MVP. He was hitting like pre-Milwaukee days last year and this year he has as much pop as Eric Sogard. If he doesn’t get his power back this deal will be a total disaster even if he plays 162 games a year because he probably just won’t have the .900+ OPS we banked on for over a half a decade minimum.

12 HRs in 1/3 of a season in 2020, if my math is correct that's on pace for 36 HRs.

[roadcrew3]

I get it and I know snark isn't necessary ... but I just am not sure what there is to discuss? If Yelich is injury prone moving forward and doesn't perform to his contract's standards, could it hinder us -> yep. Is it something to watch moving forward -> yep. I guess there is not much more to add to the discussion unless you want to talk about contract strategies by a small market team, which is a different topic, imo.

 

This would be an interesting discussion...especially considering there’s another thread discussing long-term extension possibilities for Woodruff and Burnes.

[MrTPlush]

I think the concern people have with the injuries is it’s just another problem he is having since he signed that deal. Until he really starts mashing at an MVP level again I think every little negative is going to raise people’s eyebrows.

 

His utter lack of power is probably the most concerning thing because it was what took him from fringe All Star to MVP. He was hitting like pre-Milwaukee days last year and this year he has as much pop as Eric Sogard. If he doesn’t get his power back this deal will be a total disaster even if he plays 162 games a year because he probably just won’t have the .900+ OPS we banked on for over a half a decade minimum.

 

Cmon he has had 30 ABs this year, his power hasn’t turned Sogard level...small sample size that looks more extreme since its early in the season. Last year was his career worst year yet half of his hits went for extra bases.

 

Okay? I wasn’t claiming he was going to do it all year. Just throwing out his power hasn’t been there last year or this year.

 

Regarding to the other comment about his homers, yah, he was probably on 30 HR pace last year...but his doubles were way down. His slugging percentage was about pre-Milwaukee levels (.430). That’s not bad...but we aren’t paying him to hit like his Miami days.

 

Also doesn’t help his steals have been non existent the last few years. If that’s not a thing anymore just another way he won’t be adding value.

 

I don’t know how he will fair, but I understand how some are already looking at it in negative light.

[sveumrules]

That is all I am saying, we need to prepare for the off-chance that he will not be the 2018-2019 player we all fell in love with, and that if that is the case, we might be in some deep trouble finance wise in the future.

 

Except it was never an off-chance, it was always a near certainty.

 

Only three players in the last 17 years (Trout, Pujols & Bonds) have been able to maintain the kind of production Yelich had from 2018-19 over a longer time frame.

 

Luckily, Yelich's contract doesn't pay him to perform at an MVP level for 162 games over the next eight years.

 

It's paying him for about four to five All Star caliber seasons then a couple two tree decline seasons at the end.

 

For years there was talk about how Braun's second contract would cripple the franchise

& he only put up 8 WAR from 2016-2020, over half of which came during 2016.

 

Yet despite Braun taking up a quarter of the payroll & his production/health falling off a cliff from his MVP prime the Brewers still managed to win the 11th most games in MLB from 2016-20 despite spending only the 26th most on payroll, with Braun representing about a quarter of that payroll.

 

Could the Brewers have been more competitive with Braun's 105 million spent elsewhere over the last five years? Sure, it's possible, but it certainly didn't prevent the Brewers from being competitive.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yelich was not good last year. Now more injury issues.

 

Not good at all.

 

The Brewers are paying Yelich to be their franchise player. If he's not, this team is going to be in trouble for years.

 

People keep saying this, but I'm not sure it's even true. I mean if he's a .200 hitter, yes, it's a huge problem. But they survived and even thrived with Ryan Braun's series of issues, both PEDs and back problems that kept him from being a full-time player sometimes. With inflation and the market being what it is, in 6-8 years no less, Yelich probably wouldn't be an insurmountable disaster with a bunch of .800 OPS seasons. Now if those are .600 OPS seasons, it's a different story.

 

I guess my point is that decline over the course of that deal is a given, and the Brewers had to know this, so they wouldn't have signed the deal if it didn't make some sense. It's important that the team has the type of player anyway, even if his production has declined, because it's still a reason for fans to come and see a mediocre team during the lean years, like Ryan Braun always was.

 

It's fair to say that the Brewers didn't expect what's happened since signing that deal, but I think it's a bit too early to be really worried about it.

[Thurston Fluff]

I'm one of those who thinks we should avoid long term contracts and favor trading star players to restock the farm on a regular basis like the Rays do. That said I do recognize there is a difference between the Brewers and the Rays. The fans. We have a lot of them the Rays don't. It's easier to trade players when they don't draw fans to the stadium no matter how great they are. I just happen to think having a good team year in and year out creates more fan interest than a few great players on average at best teams. If the Brewers can continue to field competitive teams with contracts like Yelich it would be the best of both worlds.

[Jopal78]

I'm one of those who thinks we should avoid long term contracts and favor trading star players to restock the farm on a regular basis like the Rays do. That said I do recognize there is a difference between the Brewers and the Rays. The fans. We have a lot of them the Rays don't. It's easier to trade players when they don't draw fans to the stadium no matter how great they are. I just happen to think having a good team year in and year out creates more fan interest than a few great players on average at best teams. If the Brewers can continue to field competitive teams with contracts like Yelich it would be the best of both worlds.

 

It’s a little more complicated than that. The Rays actually did sign Evan Longoria to a long term deal, then ostensibly gave him away to the Giants to move the contract. They also signed Snell to a long term deal which they then traded him away in order to get out of it.

 

Second, the Rays have drafted considerably better than the Brewers. Milwaukee has 5 position players in their starting lineup who came over as free agents with only one regular hitter who came up with the organization. Before you can just cycle through players trading off expensive veterans you need the David Price, Chris Archer, Ben Zobrist to get the good prospects in return. The Brewers did an excellent job trading off Gallardo, Lind, Gomez and Lucroy. Since then, they haven’t really had any players they could trade off that would have brought much of a return.

 

Third, and what you alluded to, with a team like the Brewers where on a given night half the crowd is from outside the Milwaukee area, they have to have a drawing card. It’s hard to get folks in from Stevens Point etc when you don’t have a player or two to market, and unless the team is ultra competitive there isn't enough local interest to fill the stadium every night. It’s always been that way with the Brewers.

[Thurston Fluff]

Since then, they haven’t really had any players they could trade off that would have brought much of a return.

 

I'm talking about what we have now and when to move on. Hader, Burnes, Woodruff and Yelich are players we can either trade near the end of their years of team control, sign to an extension or simply let them leave via free agency.

 

Third, and what you alluded to, with a team like the Brewers where on a given night half the crowd is from outside the Milwaukee area, they have to have a drawing card. It’s hard to get folks in from Stevens Point etc when you don’t have a player or two to market, and unless the team is ultra competitive there isn't enough local interest to fill the stadium every night. It’s always been that way with the Brewers.

 

I think having a good team is going to attract more fans than watching one or two individual players. Having both is obviously best. The trick is to maintain a competitive team first. Then try to keep some of the fan favorites if it makes sense from both a fiscal and competitive sense. I'm just not sure both are possible.

[MrTPlush]

Yah...I totally can't get on board that Yelich is a major reason and draws big crowds from outside the local area to games. The biggest draws to get people 3+ hours from games is tailgating and the roof. Those people usually only go to a few games a year anyway and its more for the experience...not the on the field product. I don't think performance sways the long distance Brewers crowd to much, at least for in game attendance. Certainly there is some increase to games attended, but big attendance swings are via the local crowd.

[stoutdude04]

Agreed. I don't think many fans come to see Yelich or whichever star is on the team. I think most go for the experience. IMO - I think it most fans prefer the experience first, then winning, then maybe a favorite player or two.

[SeaBass]

Signing Yelich might be more of a prestige factor inside MLB than to fans of the team. The Brewers market themselves both to fans and prospective players. Is Justin Turner as interested in possibly becoming a Milwaukee Brewer w/o a guy like Yelich on the roster? He didn't choose Milwaukee but apparently he was interested enough that he took them seriously.

[Jopal78]

Yah...I totally can't get on board that Yelich is a major reason and draws big crowds from outside the local area to games. The biggest draws to get people 3+ hours from games is tailgating and the roof. Those people usually only go to a few games a year anyway and its more for the experience...not the on the field product. I don't think performance sways the long distance Brewers crowd to much, at least for in game attendance. Certainly there is some increase to games attended, but big attendance swings are via the local crowd.

 

This is some sort of backwards logic. Nobody is really driving 3+ hours to Milwaukee and shelling out $150 bucks primarily to drink beer and grill in a parking lot. Unfortunately that information probably isn't tracked but I'd be willing to bet the majority of folks tailgating at a Brewers game are from the Milwaukee metro area.

 

Ditto with the roof, maybe in 2002 it was a novelty. But with the ease of buying tickets on line today, if you check the weather before you buy you can almost certainly avoid a rain out..... unless of course you're travelling because you want to see a specific team or player.

 

It is a cool experience going to see a professional baseball game, which probably drives most out of towners to see a Brewers game each summer. But it is also true star players= more winning=greater revenue. I was at the game yesterday and saw multiple jerseys and t-shirts of Braun, Yelich, Hader, Hiura and even a Gomez. Star sells stuff that the Keith Ginters and Allen Levraults of the world cannot.

[Thurston Fluff]

Yah...I totally can't get on board that Yelich is a major reason and draws big crowds from outside the local area to games. The biggest draws to get people 3+ hours from games is tailgating and the roof. Those people usually only go to a few games a year anyway and its more for the experience...not the on the field product. I don't think performance sways the long distance Brewers crowd to much, at least for in game attendance. Certainly there is some increase to games attended, but big attendance swings are via the local crowd.

 

This is some sort of backwards logic. Nobody is really driving 3+ hours to Milwaukee and shelling out $150 bucks primarily to drink beer and grill in a parking lot. Unfortunately that information probably isn't tracked but I'd be willing to bet the majority of folks tailgating at a Brewers game are from the Milwaukee metro area.

 

Ditto with the roof, maybe in 2002 it was a novelty. But with the ease of buying tickets on line today, if you check the weather before you buy you can almost certainly avoid a rain out..... unless of course you're travelling because you want to see a specific team or player.

 

It is a cool experience going to see a professional baseball game, which probably drives most out of towners to see a Brewers game each summer. But it is also true star players= more winning=greater revenue. I was at the game yesterday and saw multiple jerseys and t-shirts of Braun, Yelich, Hader, Hiura and even a Gomez. Star sells stuff that the Keith Ginters and Allen Levraults of the world cannot.

 

You don't get top 10 attendance figures in the smallest market without being a statewide team. I'm from the outside. Speaking for myself, Id rather go to a game that we had a good chance of winning than seeing one guy play with little chance of winning.

[xisxisxis]

I bet $100 that most of the posters on Brewerfan don't resemble 90% of the revenue generating fans for the Brewers. As happens often, projecting the brewerfan characteristics across the rest of the brewer fan population is just not accurate.

 

I'm pretty sure the Brewers have more data that drives their plans to have a "name" player that they invest a ton in to both help the team and meet their marketing parameters. I think if they ever win a championship or 2 (stop laughing), they will market the heck out of the players responsible and might be able to get away from having a "face" of the franchise, but at this point THEY are spending their money as if they need one.

[timpep]

Yah...I totally can't get on board that Yelich is a major reason and draws big crowds from outside the local area to games. The biggest draws to get people 3+ hours from games is tailgating and the roof. Those people usually only go to a few games a year anyway and its more for the experience...not the on the field product. I don't think performance sways the long distance Brewers crowd to much, at least for in game attendance. Certainly there is some increase to games attended, but big attendance swings are via the local crowd.

 

You nailed it for me. I go to the games for an experience. It's a 3 hour commute for me (probably a bit more from leaving the driveway to parking at the stadium). We ALWAYS tailgate because a. it's fun and part of the experience, and b. it's a lot cheaper than eating inside the stadium. The roof is a huge + because if it looked like rain in the past there was no way I was going to potentially spend 6 hours driving to not watch a game.

 

As far as going to the game to watch just Yelich because he's a former MVP.. yeah, no. Definitely don't care about seeing an individual player. If the Crew signed Trout I guess I'd probably be sure to see him live at least once but it wouldn't influence my overall attendance. The team being good will make me want to attend more games but the reality is the max amount of times I'm going to drive 6 hours round trip is limited much more by geography(and to an extent financials) than anything else.

[TURBO]

Yah...I totally can't get on board that Yelich is a major reason and draws big crowds from outside the local area to games. The biggest draws to get people 3+ hours from games is tailgating and the roof. Those people usually only go to a few games a year anyway and its more for the experience...not the on the field product. I don't think performance sways the long distance Brewers crowd to much, at least for in game attendance. Certainly there is some increase to games attended, but big attendance swings are via the local crowd.

 

You nailed it for me. I go to the games for an experience. It's a 3 hour commute for me (probably a bit more from leaving the driveway to parking at the stadium). We ALWAYS tailgate because a. it's fun and part of the experience, and b. it's a lot cheaper than eating inside the stadium. The roof is a huge + because if it looked like rain in the past there was no way I was going to potentially spend 6 hours driving to not watch a game.

 

As far as going to the game to watch just Yelich because he's a former MVP.. yeah, no. Definitely don't care about seeing an individual player. If the Crew signed Trout I guess I'd probably be sure to see him live at least once but it wouldn't influence my overall attendance. The team being good will make me want to attend more games but the reality is the max amount of times I'm going to drive 6 hours round trip is limited much more by geography(and to an extent financials) than anything else.

 

Agreed.

 

I don't go to see individual players, I go to see the Brewers team and the experience of live baseball.

[rickh150]

Yah...I totally can't get on board that Yelich is a major reason and draws big crowds from outside the local area to games. The biggest draws to get people 3+ hours from games is tailgating and the roof. Those people usually only go to a few games a year anyway and its more for the experience...not the on the field product. I don't think performance sways the long distance Brewers crowd to much, at least for in game attendance. Certainly there is some increase to games attended, but big attendance swings are via the local crowd.

 

You nailed it for me. I go to the games for an experience. It's a 3 hour commute for me (probably a bit more from leaving the driveway to parking at the stadium). We ALWAYS tailgate because a. it's fun and part of the experience, and b. it's a lot cheaper than eating inside the stadium. The roof is a huge + because if it looked like rain in the past there was no way I was going to potentially spend 6 hours driving to not watch a game.

 

As far as going to the game to watch just Yelich because he's a former MVP.. yeah, no. Definitely don't care about seeing an individual player. If the Crew signed Trout I guess I'd probably be sure to see him live at least once but it wouldn't influence my overall attendance. The team being good will make me want to attend more games but the reality is the max amount of times I'm going to drive 6 hours round trip is limited much more by geography(and to an extent financials) than anything else.

 

Agreed.

 

I don't go to see individual players, I go to see the Brewers team and the experience of live baseball.

 

If the team is winning or has a promising team, people from outside Milwaukee come much, much more. People will support a winner. A 65 win team compared to a 90 win team will draw a million less people. Let’s not get crazy, though, and say individual players that drive success and bring aboard FA don’t make a difference.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I never said that individual players are the primary driver of attendance, winning is.

 

You guys may not go to see individual players, there are plenty of people who do, and there is a reason Braun, well after he was a superstar player, would clearly draw the loudest applause when coming to the plate on some not-so-good teams. My 7 year old was 4 and asked for his shirsey, not Jimmy Nelson's or anybody who was actually good - not that Braun wasn't, he just wasn't "the guy." Having a franchise player matters, and it's not just about his OPS. You need brand identity, and he was that guy.

 

95 wins will always get to that 3 million mark, but having brand identity might be the difference between 1.2 and 1.8 million in a lean year. And a lot of fans to want to buy somebody's shirt.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I bet $100 that most of the posters on Brewerfan don't resemble 90% of the revenue generating fans for the Brewers. As happens often, projecting the brewerfan characteristics across the rest of the brewer fan population is just not accurate.

 

I'm pretty sure the Brewers have more data that drives their plans to have a "name" player that they invest a ton in to both help the team and meet their marketing parameters. I think if they ever win a championship or 2 (stop laughing), they will market the heck out of the players responsible and might be able to get away from having a "face" of the franchise, but at this point THEY are spending their money as if they need one.

 

Exactly this. They are not under some delusion that Yelich will OPS .950 for 10 years. They have to put a face on their signage for the next decade and he is perfect, popular, and very good.

[adambr2]

I think there's far more correlation between winning and attendance than there is between a "name" player and attendance. You can see the Brewers attendance year by year and it pretty closely relates to their record that year.

 

If the Brewers are winning 90 games, there's going to be good players on the team that people are coming to see. It doesn't really matter if one is named Christian Yelich.

 

While Brewerfan.Net might not be an accurate reflection of the statewide community as a whole, I've never met a person that said they were strictly going to a game to see a specific player. I'm sure those people exist, but the vast majority of even casual fans are just going for the experience and activity.

 

Frankly to me the idea of someone going to a game just to see a specific player and would not be going otherwise (outside of a kid who might just idolize a certain player) is a bit weird to me.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Again, there is far more that goes into a franchise player than attendance, and there are more revenue streams than just attendance. To actually know how good or bad of a deal Braun wound up being for the team, you would need to see t-shirt sales. As fans and particularly fans of this website, we don't care about anything besides winning. That's a big thing they care about, but not the only thing.

 

One season the Bucks website had a ticket promo with the following guys on it: Brandon Jennings, Ersan, and Ekpe Udoh. The NBA is a star-driven league, but when you have a player like Yelich, you'll give him that monster deal because he's not only a great player, but is a highly marketable player, one that will do community outreach, kids like him, old people like him, women like him, etc.

 

This was already posted, but this place has a habit of thinking in a very egocentric way and not acknowledging that most people don't look at this team and its players like we do.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I've never met a person that said they were strictly going to a game to see a specific player.

 

My kids, both born after 2013, would only want to be in their seats to watch Ryan Braun hit. They don't buy tickets, I do. I'd probably be there 1/3 as often if not for them. There are more of us than you think.

 

Attendance tracks with winning, I don't think anybody is arguing this. But the sentiment running in this thread that starpower doesn't matter and name recognition doesn't matter as a marketing tool, or isn't a reason they sign contracts like this, is just not true. They would stick the guy with the highest OPS from last season in all the promos if it didn't matter.

[SeaBass]

I will say when going to a game back in the day, if Sheets was pitching I'd be a little more excited to be there than otherwise. Brewers haven't really had that ace to add that little extra that makes watching a game in person special. If Burnes and Woodruff continue to pitch high quality baseball that is something I would think makes a fan really want to be there for their starts.

[Jopal78]

The 1998 Cardinals were a third place club, the Brewers were a 5th place club. Yet near the end of the season from September 18-20 the Brewers drew 150,000 fans for a 3 game series against the Cardinals. Everyone was there to see one guy play.