Burnes/Woodruff Extension Proposal

[Greenleaf1]

I'm not sure if there was a thread about this in the past, but what is everyone's opinion about what kind of extension Stearns should be proposing to Burnes/Woodruff.

 

Woodruff has 2 more years before FA after this year, Burnes has 3 and will hit arbitration for the first time next year. Neither received big signing bonuses from the draft, so they might be a little more likely to give a bit of a team discount in return for a large guaranteed contract.

 

Peralta's deal is obviously below the floor for what you could even begin to consider here, as he was still on the fence between starter/reliever when he signed the deal, but you could at least use his deal as an idea of the length of a contract.

 

Peralta's deal (starting with his arby years): 22: $2.25M, 23: $3.5M, 24: $5.5M, 25/26: $8M club options each (takes Peralta through his age-30 season)

 

This year is Peralta's age-25 season, Burnes 26, Woodruff 28.

 

My assumption would be something like (starting next year for both), a 6-year deal for Burnes and a 5-year deal for Woodruff (with option years on the end).

 

In his 1st arby year, Woodruff is making $3.28M. I'm not great at guessing future arbitration values, but if he continues to be roughly himself (meaning a #2 starter give or take a little), I'd guess those numbers get up to $8M/$12M for years 2/3 (again, I'm terrible at this, someone please correct me if you think I'm way off).

 

For Burnes, I'm trying to use priors as an idea of how high he could go in arbitration next year, and it really all depends on this season. If he's a Cy Young contender 2 years in a row, it's hard to see his first year arby being less than 5 or 6 (Keuchel, fresh off a Cy Young, got $7.25 5 years ago his first time through. Hader got about $4M his first time through as a reliever, and about $7M this year after a slight off year in 2020). Assuming Burnes stays healthy and places in the Cy Young voting again this year, and assuming he stays good the next 2 years after, I'd just really roughly estimate his arby numbers at $6M/$10M/$14M.

 

If Burnes/Woodruff manage to get to free agency without signing extensions, I'd imagine they could draw $20-30M AAV contracts.

 

A deal that might serve as a decent comp:

Blake Snell (before 2019 season, age 26): 5 years, $50M (just before his last pre-arb season)

 

 

For Woodruff, my proposal would be:

22: 6M, 23: 10M, 24: 12M, 25: 14M, 26: 15M, 27 (opt): 16M, Total: 5 years, $57M (up to 6/$73M)

 

For Burnes:

22: 4M, 23: 6M, 24: 8M, 25: 12M, 26: 14M, 27: 16M, 28 (opt): 18M, Total: 6 years, $60M (up to 7/$78M)

 

 

What do you all think? Too high? Too low? Too long? Not long enough? Possible to get done with the season already started, or are we just going to have to watch and enjoy this year and watch the price goes up as they continue to pitch well?

[Greenleaf1]

Looks like I missed that Woodruff was a Super-2 player this year, which means he actually has 3 more years of arbitration after this.

 

I'm not sure that ultimately affects the deal I'd offer him too much though. Maybe drop it by a few million.

[rickh150]

No reason to extend these guys NOW, this minute..... see how the year plays out. Probably next year too. Extending them now is equivalent to the posts of extending Arcia for 5 or 6 years a couple of years ago.

[Outlander]

Except they did it with Peralta and that looks pretty good.

[Jopal78]

Except they did it with Peralta and that looks pretty good.

 

But it's apples and oranges. Peralta was pre-arbitration eligible and he got more money up front than he would've likely received otherwise and gave the Brewers potentially one extra season of team control in return.

 

On the other hand, Woodruff already has no real incentive to sign an extension with Milwaukee. He is already making 3.25 million and his salary will only further sky rocket.

 

Same deal with Burnes, he will be arbitration eligible after this season and really has no incentive to give up future earnings now or contract away his right to free agency.

 

Like what Dolan said regarding Lindor, Milwaukee controls Burnes and Woodruff for at least three more years, enjoy them.

[Oxy]

They do have some incentive, as if either one blows out their shoulder a la Jimmy Nelson, they may be capping their career earnings right now, which is nice but probably not life changing security. A $60M deal IS life changing security and it's guaranteed the moment they sign. I'd say that's a LOT of incentive...

[tmwiese55]

I was just talking to someone about this earlier this week. I definitely think they should be exploring ways to lock them on team friendly deals, especially Burnes since he's a couple years younger. Something with the goal of extending 2-3 years beyond arb on both should only have you on the hook with them until ages 30-32ish ages. So not terribly risking other than the obvious injury issues all Ps have. The risk on the other side is that if they keep doing well every year that goes on increases their price and power to command us give another year into their 30s. Big pic, I'd like to have them for 5ish more years, not just 3. Woodruff though is more difficult to gauge though as you already get to early 30s just on arbitration, which should make him even more agreeable to taking a team friendly deal.

 

Think of the Gallardo type deal but at today's numbers. He hits FA at the age when you are comfortable letting someone else overpay and take the risk, while you've already gotten the prime years. With them seeing what happened to Nelson you'd think they would have their ears open to putting life changing money away rather than gambling on their health.

[MrTPlush]

Guessing if either of these guys wanted to take a super team friendly deal it would have happened already...especially Woodruff who has been a clear MLB pitcher with high upside for years. I am willing to bet Woodruff has been approached on the subject before.

 

I am guessing if either were to sign an extension it would be in the $70mil+ range to buy out a few years of FA...which to me would be the “fair” rate for them. Of course Burnes may be looking in the mirror and seeing a $200mil+ payday in a few years.

[Jopal78]

They do have some incentive, as if either one blows out their shoulder a la Jimmy Nelson, they may be capping their career earnings right now, which is nice but probably not life changing security. A $60M deal IS life changing security and it's guaranteed the moment they sign. I'd say that's a LOT of incentive...

 

Anything is possible, but as T-Plush said if either one was going to sign a team friendly deal it would’ve happened already. With Woodruff already in arbitration and Burnes heading there, the Brewers have no leverage. Each player will make exponentially more going year to year in arbitration and if they continue to perform they will cash in as free agents.

 

To your point, if the strongest argument as to why a player should sign an extension is: they’ll be protected from a career ending injury; the team has already failed.

[clancyphile]

Except they did it with Peralta and that looks pretty good.

 

And doing it sooner, rather than later, could be the difference maker for a dominant rotation versus an above average one.

 

A dominant rotation can put the Brewers in position to win the World Series.

[Warning Track Power]

Burnes won’t be a FA until before his age 30 season. Woodruff before his age 32 season. I would think Woodruff would certainly have some incentive. I’d offer them Woodruff something that would add 3 years on the backend and an additional $60m. Burnes is trickier as he’s looking at $200m if he continues pitching like this. I would offer 6 years $120m beginning next year. Probably both unrealistic but it is where I would start.

[umphrey]

I wouldn’t mind flipping at least 1 of them for prospects with 1 or 1.5 years left of team control

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't believe these 2 would want a contract extension with the age when they would enter FA. When discussing life changing earning then I think what they would be willing to do is sign a deal that buys out their team control and 1year extended with a buy out option. This would be something where maybe FA year you extend on being like 15-16Mil and the option year being mutual at 20Mil with 4 or 5Mil buyout. In other words they are being paid 20Mil for the 1 FA year extended beyond team control. The way these 2 are pitching and if continued near that healthy they are passing up 30mil-plus a year easy. Making the option mutual gives them the chance to go make that 30Mil plus in FA.

Just don't know they really have the urge to sign a deal. Counsell babies their arms so how risky should they feel about suffering a life-changing injury.

[homer]

I wouldn’t mind flipping at least 1 of them for prospects with 1 or 1.5 years left of team control

 

I could see that especially if Ashby and/or Small turn out to be good.

[OldHeidelberg]

I wouldn’t mind flipping at least 1 of them for prospects with 1 or 1.5 years left of team control

 

I could see that especially if Ashby and/or Small turn out to be good.

 

That is probably what is going to happen. I doubt Burnes is too interested in an extension but I would think buying out Woodruff's age 32 and 33 season might work. He is a big guy who throws gas with a pretty solid track record now so I would think those years could still be prime and he might like the security. I don't know that he would go with a couple of team option years though, if they don't pick them up it means he isn't going to hit the jackpot in FA so we would have to guarantee those years.

 

I sure hope the team doesn't blow it because of financial constaints if we have a 3-4 year window with these guys. Not much we can do with the offense this year other than a a Story type rental but we can't go into seasons with hope for the best lineups like we did this season if we want to compete with the Dodgers.

[MrTPlush]

Burnes won’t be a FA until before his age 30 season. Woodruff before his age 32 season. I would think Woodruff would certainly have some incentive. I’d offer them Woodruff something that would add 3 years on the backend and an additional $60m. Burnes is trickier as he’s looking at $200m if he continues pitching like this. I would offer 6 years $120m beginning next year. Probably both unrealistic but it is where I would start.

 

Yah the problem with Woodruff is the age he hits FA. Like you said you would probably need to add at least 3 years. If he signs a deal it erases his only real shot for a huge FA payday...so I would guess he would want to deal longer at that point. So many players take these deals and mention they will always have a chance at big money later on, but that wouldn’t be the case for Woodruff (in all likelihood).

 

Honestly, his situation is really similar to Lucroy. You almost don’t even want him longer than you already do. Maybe another year or two extra...but that isn’t much extra control for all the risk.

[HiAndTight]

Except they did it with Peralta and that looks pretty good.

 

And doing it sooner, rather than later, could be the difference maker for a dominant rotation versus an above average one.

 

A dominant rotation can put the Brewers in position to win the World Series.

 

 

We have these guys locked up as is for the next several seasons. At what point does it stop being worth it to extend them?

 

I get it's a crazy new thing, the Brewers developing TOR arms, but...they'll need to find a way to keep doing that every so often. I would love to see them lock them both up with a couple of team options, but I don't understand why either would. Especially at this point. Maybe Burnes after last year, but at this point, I'm guessing he's feeling more and more confident betting on himself.

 

I'll just enjoy watching them the next 4 years and hope the Brewers can keep bringing arms along during that time. Ashby and Small being next up with Kelly hopefully following.

[Jopal78]

Burnes won’t be a FA until before his age 30 season. Woodruff before his age 32 season. I would think Woodruff would certainly have some incentive. I’d offer them Woodruff something that would add 3 years on the backend and an additional $60m. Burnes is trickier as he’s looking at $200m if he continues pitching like this. I would offer 6 years $120m beginning next year. Probably both unrealistic but it is where I would start.

 

Except Woodruff is already in arbitration. It’s a non-sensical notion he’d forgo arbitration for a yearly guarantee when his salary in arbitration is based partially on performance but also what other players received. He’d potentially be leaving millions of dollars on the table. Further, if Woodruff remains a strong performer his entire time in Milwaukee his age going into free agency won’t matter (Jon Lester, Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke all got real paid at the same age).

 

If Burnes keeps pitching as he had all year he’ll get to arbitration this winter and submit a number in excess of ten million. If he continues to pitch at an elite level an extension would not make any sense from his perspective.

 

Which brings up point three. As someone else alluded to, I don’t think the Brewers are ever going to pay market rates for starting pitchers. They’ll hang on to Burnes and Woodruff until their team control is about to end, then They will trade them for what they can get. That’s why a pitcher like Ashby is their most important prospect. He’s the natural replacement for Woodruff in 1.5-2 years. Like in Cleveland, one group of starters begins to get expensive/approach free agency Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Clevenger and they’re traded away with new arms stepping up Bieber, Plesac, Civale, Etc. it’s the only way to make it work without a 200 million dollar payroll

[clancyphile]

And doing it sooner, rather than later, could be the difference maker for a dominant rotation versus an above average one.

 

A dominant rotation can put the Brewers in position to win the World Series.

 

 

We have these guys locked up as is for the next several seasons. At what point does it stop being worth it to extend them?

 

I get it's a crazy new thing, the Brewers developing TOR arms, but...they'll need to find a way to keep doing that every so often. I would love to see them lock them both up with a couple of team options, but I don't understand why either would. Especially at this point. Maybe Burnes after last year, but at this point, I'm guessing he's feeling more and more confident betting on himself.

 

I'll just enjoy watching them the next 4 years and hope the Brewers can keep bringing arms along during that time. Ashby and Small being next up with Kelly hopefully following.

 

I get it, but at the same time, there has to be at least some effort made to keep proven talent in Milwaukee. Corbin Burnes going to the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Red Sox, Angels, Cubs, or Cardinals becomes an obstacle to bringing a few pennants and a World Championship or two to Milwaukee. The same is true for Woodruff.

 

Burnes, given the way 2019 went, might take the guaranteed money. Woodruff would be a longer shot, but if you could get them at $15 million a year for the rest of the decade to ensure a dominant rotation... why not do that?

[MrTPlush]

You say that as if they haven’t tried to lock these guys up and the players said no. I’d bet my life Woodruff has at least been offered a Freddy Peralta type deal in the past. I mean why would they offer it to Peralta and never Woodruff? Maybe even Burnes too.

 

I’m guessing they try to lock up guys a lot and we never end up hearing about it.