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markedman5

By markedman5,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

Verified Member
Posted
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So, if you're Stearns, what are you offering Woodruff and Burnes right now to buy out their arby and a couple years of FA?

 

5/50? I really don't know. I feel like I'd be thrilled if they both signed that right now, but would they?

 

This came up once when he became Super 2 eligible. I looked at comps felt this was about what it may take:

 

"Yah...don’t think $51mil is getting it done. I’m guessing we would have to be more in the $70mil range to get it done.

 

$4mil

$7.5mil

$11.5mil

$15.5mil

$16mil

$16mil

 

That is about 6/$70mil...probably something like that is what it would take. Of course he may decline that too...any extension would ruin his one shot at a big FA deal. He is set to hit FA for his age 32 season. An extension that buys out two more years suddenly makes him 34 in FA."

 

**The above included this year in the total at $4mil** (5/$66.5mil without it)

 

I don't think a Woodruff extension makes any sense for the Brewers. We got him till he is 32, sounds like a good place to stop. Usually a team gives out one of these extensions to lock in some prime years and the player just hits FA a little later. We add a ton of risk only for some years in his 30s and Woodruff gives up his one prime FA opportunity. I just don't see it working for both sides unless he is dying to lock in some money and takes a massive market discount.

 

Corbin Burnes is two years younger and would make a lot more sense to do such an extension with...though it would be pretty expensive they way he is pitching. Maybe you get a big discount because he isn't as proven, but come July or the end of the year that might not be so applicable. 5/$50mil is probably not getting it done, but hard to predict what a potential early extension would look like. All you need is a motivated player to lock up millions (like Braun/Acuna/Albies) and suddenly you have a highway robbery looking deal.

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sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
So, if you're Stearns, what are you offering Woodruff and Burnes right now to buy out their arby and a couple years of FA?

 

5/50? I really don't know. I feel like I'd be thrilled if they both signed that right now, but would they?

 

Both are scheduled to hit free agency following the 2024 season. Woodruff will be entering his age 32 season, while Burnes will be entering his age 30 season. That age difference leads me to believe Brandon might be a lil more willing to sign an extension before FA.

 

There's also the looming CBA situation after this season.

 

My best guess is that Stearns & company would prefer to wait until that is all settled & if Brandon/Corbin are still healthy/dealing following the 2022 season they would try to get extensions done then, with two years af Arby's remaining for each guy at that point.

 

I don't think either would bite at 5/50 now, but get that guaranteed money closer to 100 million over 6-7 years & it gets a lot harder to say no.

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adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

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If they're both still dealing after '22, their price tag will have skyrocketed by then. If you're going to do it, I'd rather not wait.

 

I think I'd try to do something like 3/39 after '21 to buy out the remaining arby years for both. With two team options at 19M for '25 and 22M for '26, with 3M buyouts for each, for a total of 45M guaranteed over their arby years and a potential of 5/80.

 

This sets both up for life, and reduces our risk. If they tank, we aren't committed past the 45M. If they're still elite, we still have 2 more years control, and if we didn't want to pay the options they'd be highly valued trade assets.

 

If they weren't interested in a structure like that or something similar I'd probably just ride it out in arbitration. Possible that either or both would rather ride it out til free agency and go for Gerrit Cole type money and if they wanted to roll the dice on that it would certainly be their prerogative.

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Greenleaf1 Draft Eligible

Greenleaf1

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Just reading through these contract proposals now, but I started a thread with what I was thinking: viewtopic.php?f=63&t=40426

 

I'm not great at guessing long term salary figures, but neither is a big bonus draft pick, so giving them 5-7 years (including options) and like 50-60M guaranteed plus club options for more seems like it'd be hard for them both to turn down.

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sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

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If they're both still dealing after '22, their price tag will have skyrocketed by then. If you're going to do it, I'd rather not wait.

 

I would bet against anything getting done this year primarily on account of the whole CBA situation & to a lesser extent just because neither has ever made it through a full MLB season as a starter.

 

Seems like more risk than Stearns & company are typically comfortable with.

 

Soonest I would expect anything to get done would be in what will likely be a small window between whenever the CBA gets figured out & the 2022 season begins.

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Roderick First Round Pick

Roderick

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I would wait for the extension until after 2022, and then I would be targeting to get one FA year from them, so we are good through 2025. But if the cost isn't worth the risk, am willing to go through until 2024 and then trade them.
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umphrey Draft Eligible

umphrey

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I guess it makes a good story but its not like he was bartending, he was our #1 prospect and had 1 bad year
I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
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markedman5 Biloxi Shuckers

markedman5

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If he was just bad or mediocre that year it wouldn’t be that interesting......but he was just horrible as we all remember.

 

To go from that......to completely remaking his repertoire in the off-season and then becoming one of the best pitchers in the game is pretty amazing and incredibly fun to watch.

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clancyphile Carolina Mudcats

clancyphile

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If they're both still dealing after '22, their price tag will have skyrocketed by then. If you're going to do it, I'd rather not wait.

 

I think I'd try to do something like 3/39 after '21 to buy out the remaining arby years for both. With two team options at 19M for '25 and 22M for '26, with 3M buyouts for each, for a total of 45M guaranteed over their arby years and a potential of 5/80.

 

This sets both up for life, and reduces our risk. If they tank, we aren't committed past the 45M. If they're still elite, we still have 2 more years control, and if we didn't want to pay the options they'd be highly valued trade assets.

 

If they weren't interested in a structure like that or something similar I'd probably just ride it out in arbitration. Possible that either or both would rather ride it out til free agency and go for Gerrit Cole type money and if they wanted to roll the dice on that it would certainly be their prerogative.

 

I'd probably go more 4/$60M after this year (with $5M deferred each year), to get to 2025, then have option years of $20 million a year ($5M deferred each year) for 2026-2029, each year with $5 million buyouts. That would end up being 8/$140M with $40M deferred at most. Then go with a Bobby Bonilla-type arrangement on the deferred pay by paying out $2 million a year for 20 years, so they have a good fallback after their careers.

 

Now, $4 million a year in deferred pay between those two might sound like a lot, but given the way payrolls climbed, it's arguably a bargain. Especially if it locks down two spots of the rotation for the rest of the decade. And a similar approach could work for Freddy Peralta if he keeps up his TOR-type performance.

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HiAndTight ACL Brewers

HiAndTight

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Brewers control Freddie through 2026 if they want to.....no need to worry about him.

 

Another three years might not be a bad thing if he keeps pitching like a TOR guy...

 

It's hard to find another player in all of baseball it'd make less sense to extend at this point from a teams perspective than Freddy Peralta.

 

I really like Freddy...and he's young, but 5 FULL seasons after this one...that's just about the perfect contract from the teams perspective. Any extension at this point would really be charitable from the Brewers perspective.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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