Brewers' Offense

[MrTPlush]

Have you seen this Jesus Aguilar guy? He's pretty good. Brewers could use a guy like him.

 

Yeah, it’s unfortunate he was so awful that they couldn’t put him out there any longer. I believe we were looking ‘ok’ at 1B at the time as well. But yes, it would be great to have him back.

 

This last series with the Cardinals just shows the difference between our teams when you look at the 1B and 3B situations. It’s sad.

 

The saddest part is he had a .694 OPS and these are some guys who have taken a bulk of that 1B time lately.

 

Justin Smoak - .642 OPS

Logan Morrison - .494 OPS

Keston Hiura - .513

Daniel Vogelbach - .678 OPS

[Jopal78]

Take a step off the ledge. Yes it’s a disappointment that some of their hitters have been scuffling to start the year, and their best hitter has basically been injured all year.

 

Then again despite their offensive struggles, they haven’t been under .500 since the first week of the season, they’re within striking distance of the division lead, and 31 of their first 38 games have been against teams that were in the playoffs last year.

 

Unless someone truly believes that JBJ, Vogelbach, Cain, etc suddenly became washed up in the last calendar year, you should expect all of them to play better going forward and approach their career norms.

 

Bradley’s OPS is almost 200 points below his career mark, Cain is 70 points below, Vogelbach is 57 points under. Shaw is an up and down player year to year and even he’s 50 points under his career OPS mark of .770.

 

This all occurring without anyone truly getting hot for more than a few games. They’ll be fine

[adambr2]

Take a step off the ledge. Yes it’s a disappointment that some of their hitters have been scuffling to start the year, and their best hitter has basically been injured all year.

 

Then again despite their offensive struggles, they haven’t been under .500 since the first week of the season, they’re within striking distance of the division lead, and 31 of their first 38 games have been against teams that were in the playoffs last year.

 

Unless someone truly believes that JBJ, Vogelbach, Cain, etc suddenly became washed up in the last calendar year, you should expect all of them to play better going forward and approach their career norms.

 

Bradley’s OPS is almost 200 points below his career mark, Cain is 70 points below, Vogelbach is 57 points under. Shaw is an up and down player year to year and even he’s 50 points under his career OPS mark of .770.

 

This all occurring without anyone truly getting hot for more than a few games. They’ll be fine

 

Expecting these guys to all just deviate to their career norms probably isn't realistic. You are talking 3 out of 4 guys in their 30s and no longer in the primes of their careers.

 

Cain might genuinely be washed up. It was 2 calendar years for him.

 

Bradley isn't this bad and won't finish this bad offensively, but he still looks like a poor signing. I would guess he'll finish closer to his career norms than what he is right now but probably still comfortably below. He's dug himself a pretty big hole.

 

Vogelbach is whatever. He's a far below average bat for the 1B position. He could finish at his current OPS of .678 and it shouldn't be that surprising if he did to anyone. Or he'll finish around his career mark of .735. It doesn't make much difference. He's just not very good.

 

Shaw was an awesome player in '17 and '18. It is now '21 and he looks pretty washed up relative to what he was then. He hasn't approached his career averages since '18 and isn't going to this year. If he could maintain his current. 722 OPS/98 OPS+, that is probably about the best we can hope for from him. He simply isn't a .770 OPS player anymore.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Take a step off the ledge. Yes it’s a disappointment that some of their hitters have been scuffling to start the year, and their best hitter has basically been injured all year.

 

Then again despite their offensive struggles, they haven’t been under .500 since the first week of the season, they’re within striking distance of the division lead, and 31 of their first 38 games have been against teams that were in the playoffs last year.

 

Unless someone truly believes that JBJ, Vogelbach, Cain, etc suddenly became washed up in the last calendar year, you should expect all of them to play better going forward and approach their career norms.

 

Bradley’s OPS is almost 200 points below his career mark, Cain is 70 points below, Vogelbach is 57 points under. Shaw is an up and down player year to year and even he’s 50 points under his career OPS mark of .770.

 

This all occurring without anyone truly getting hot for more than a few games. They’ll be fine

 

Expecting these guys to all just deviate to their career norms probably isn't realistic. You are talking 3 out of 4 guys in their 30s and no longer in the primes of their careers.

 

Cain might genuinely be washed up. It was 2 calendar years for him.

 

Bradley isn't this bad and won't finish this bad offensively, but he still looks like a poor signing. I would guess he'll finish closer to his career norms than what he is right now but probably still comfortably below. He's dug himself a pretty big hole.

 

Vogelbach is whatever. He's a far below average bat for the 1B position. He could finish at his current OPS of .678 and it shouldn't be that surprising if he did to anyone. Or he'll finish around his career mark of .735. It doesn't make much difference. He's just not very good.

 

Shaw was an awesome player in '17 and '18. It is now '21 and he looks pretty washed up relative to what he was then. He hasn't approached his career averages since '18 and isn't going to this year. If he could maintain his current. 722 OPS/98 OPS+, that is probably about the best we can hope for from him. He simply isn't a .770 OPS player anymore.

 

Shaw was signed to a minors deal, and was expected to be a platoon player. I don't think anyone was expecting an .OPS of near .800. If he can keep his .OPS above .700, and continue to play his solid defense, I have no problem with him. I figured his ceiling was probably a .750 OPS, so he's perhaps a tad below expectations, but has also had a mess of clutch moments so far that help his overall narrative.

 

Bradley Jr. has scuffled. But writing him off as a poor signing based on 120 ABs seems premature too. If he is still struggling once we get into June, then we can talk.

[MrTPlush]

I went to look up JBJ stats and the top article is a writer in Boston saying Red Sox fans should wish they still had him because he was a great 9 hole hitter. They believe this despite JBJ absolutely sucking so far this year and inferring if he was hitting 9th in the AL he wouldn't be so terrible.

 

I am not sure I agree or even understand where the writer is going with this, I just thought it was interesting someone wished they had JBJ on their team right now.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mastrodonato-why-the-red-sox-should-be-missing-jackie-bradley-jr-right-now/ar-BB1gGw98?ocid=uxbndlbing

[adambr2]

Take a step off the ledge. Yes it’s a disappointment that some of their hitters have been scuffling to start the year, and their best hitter has basically been injured all year.

 

Then again despite their offensive struggles, they haven’t been under .500 since the first week of the season, they’re within striking distance of the division lead, and 31 of their first 38 games have been against teams that were in the playoffs last year.

 

Unless someone truly believes that JBJ, Vogelbach, Cain, etc suddenly became washed up in the last calendar year, you should expect all of them to play better going forward and approach their career norms.

 

Bradley’s OPS is almost 200 points below his career mark, Cain is 70 points below, Vogelbach is 57 points under. Shaw is an up and down player year to year and even he’s 50 points under his career OPS mark of .770.

 

This all occurring without anyone truly getting hot for more than a few games. They’ll be fine

 

Expecting these guys to all just deviate to their career norms probably isn't realistic. You are talking 3 out of 4 guys in their 30s and no longer in the primes of their careers.

 

Cain might genuinely be washed up. It was 2 calendar years for him.

 

Bradley isn't this bad and won't finish this bad offensively, but he still looks like a poor signing. I would guess he'll finish closer to his career norms than what he is right now but probably still comfortably below. He's dug himself a pretty big hole.

 

Vogelbach is whatever. He's a far below average bat for the 1B position. He could finish at his current OPS of .678 and it shouldn't be that surprising if he did to anyone. Or he'll finish around his career mark of .735. It doesn't make much difference. He's just not very good.

 

Shaw was an awesome player in '17 and '18. It is now '21 and he looks pretty washed up relative to what he was then. He hasn't approached his career averages since '18 and isn't going to this year. If he could maintain his current. 722 OPS/98 OPS+, that is probably about the best we can hope for from him. He simply isn't a .770 OPS player anymore.

 

Shaw was signed to a minors deal, and was expected to be a platoon player. I don't think anyone was expecting an .OPS of near .800. If he can keep his .OPS above .700, and continue to play his solid defense, I have no problem with him. I figured his ceiling was probably a .750 OPS, so he's perhaps a tad below expectations, but has also had a mess of clutch moments so far that help his overall narrative.

 

Bradley Jr. has scuffled. But writing him off as a poor signing based on 120 ABs seems premature too. If he is still struggling once we get into June, then we can talk.

 

Bradley Jr. could get on base 35 of his next 100 PAs and he would still have an OBP under. 285. He's been that bad.

 

We're just over 2 weeks away from June. If it looks like a bad signing now I wouldn't find it likely to look like a good one in 2 and a half weeks.

[yoshii8]

At this point, I think something has to be done to inject some life in this offense. I'd even be pumped about a Jedd Gyorko type signing right now. Hopefully Yelich comes back soon, and can stay healthy but back issues seem to be so tricky and tend to linger.

[MrTPlush]

Well Vogelbach has been decent of late and that would be the one position you could toy with. If Vogelbach goes downhill again then they should probably consider doing something. Vogelbach had a low ceiling as it was, no point wasting a bunch of ABs to see if he can OPS .725 consistently.

[brewers888]

Is it really surprising that the offense is terrible. They didn’t hit in 2020, Haines was retained, and the only acquisitions that mattered were Wong and Bradley neither of whom can hit. Stearns completely whiffed again last offseason but the results should have been expected.

[pacopete4]

Is it really surprising that the offense is terrible. They didn’t hit in 2020, Haines was retained, and the only acquisitions that mattered were Wong and Bradley neither of whom can hit. Stearns completely whiffed again last offseason but the results should have been expected.

 

Why do you keep repeating this? Kolton Wong can and is hitting well this season. I get that you may not like the signings but at least be truthful in your posts. It's weird that you repeat utter nonsense.

[brewers888]

Is it really surprising that the offense is terrible. They didn’t hit in 2020, Haines was retained, and the only acquisitions that mattered were Wong and Bradley neither of whom can hit. Stearns completely whiffed again last offseason but the results should have been expected.

 

Why do you keep repeating this? Kolton Wong can and is hitting well this season. I get that you may not like the signings but at least be truthful in your posts. It's weird that you repeat utter nonsense.

 

Wong was signed for his defense and his bat is good enough for the position but he is not a good hitter.

[brewers888]

As I’ve mentioned numerous times Stearns has allocated over 50 million on four outfielders with Yelich being the only plus bat of the four. If that is not a poor use of our limited resources I don’t know what is.

[MrTPlush]

Kolton Wong is a nice complement bat in a line up. He really isn't that great of a hitter, but with his defense a nice 100 OPS+ would be nothing to sneeze at. The problem is on this team he is one of the top hitters. That really is not good.

[jonescm128]

As I’ve mentioned numerous times Stearns has allocated over 50 million on four outfielders with Yelich being the only plus bat of the four. If that is not a poor use of our limited resources I don’t know what is.

 

Based on their OPS+ during their tenure with the Brewers (not including Lorenzo's 2010 stint)...

 

Christian Yelich - 161

Lorenzo Cain - 99

Avisail Garcia - 90

JBJ - 46

[Lathund]

Cain might genuinely be washed up. It was 2 calendar years for him.

 

I understand the skepticism about the others, but not really about Cain. Even in 2019 the underlying numbers were fine; a .330 xwOBA compared to the .342 in 2018. He looked fine in his brief showing in 2020, and is looking fine again. He is a player with a career .338 BABIP, age might bring that down a little but the .188 he has now is completely unsustainable. His xwOBA is .329 so far this year. Despite that BABIP resulting in an ugly .185 BA so far, he is still sporting a 94 wRC+. This is something you would expect to go up rather than down based on the underlying numbers. Defensive metrics don't have enough of a sample yet to truly be trusted, but combine the 4 main ones (DRS, UZR, FRAA, OAA) and he's average to slightly above; when they all say the same thing you can probably surmise that the truth at least isn't miles off. And statcast has his sprint speed in the 90th percentile still. Even in an injured 2019 when his offense was down (83 wRC+) he was still an average starter (1.5 fWAR, 2.6 bWAR). And his offense looks fine this year. The one unknown is injuries, but it's pretty clear that a healthy LoCain isn't washed up.

[tmwiese55]

Is it really surprising that the offense is terrible. They didn’t hit in 2020, Haines was retained, and the only acquisitions that mattered were Wong and Bradley neither of whom can hit. Stearns completely whiffed again last offseason but the results should have been expected.

 

Sure. But a lot things were there for mass improvement. First, Yelich not sucking. Then you have Narv going from garbage to mediocre (not much to ask). Cain/JBJ even being mediocre would be a big step up from the stiffs we ran out there last year. Wong is a good contact guy which we needed. Huira bounceback. There was plenty of reasons to think the O could go from bottom of the barrell to just average/mediocre, which is all we needed.

[pacopete4]

Is it really surprising that the offense is terrible. They didn’t hit in 2020, Haines was retained, and the only acquisitions that mattered were Wong and Bradley neither of whom can hit. Stearns completely whiffed again last offseason but the results should have been expected.

 

Why do you keep repeating this? Kolton Wong can and is hitting well this season. I get that you may not like the signings but at least be truthful in your posts. It's weird that you repeat utter nonsense.

 

Wong was signed for his defense and his bat is good enough for the position but he is not a good hitter.

 

You make no sense. None.

[brewers888]

Wong is a good player but he should never be one of your best hitters.

[brewers888]

Stearns is just totally fixated on athleticism and middle of the diamond athletes at the expense of hitting ability.

[RollieTime]

Wong is a good hitter with elite defense. He’s a perfect complement to this lineup and fantastic in the field. He is the least of our concerns this season. Be thankful we have a gold glover in his prime on a reasonable contract the next 3 seasons if we decide to keep him, which I imagine we will.

 

I will give you credit in that Stearns does seem to fixate on up the middle guys a little too much instead of guys with great hitting ability. Mitchell was a great pick though for a guy who should have been drafted in the top 5, but fell to us. But that is getting off topic.

 

This lineup needs a healthy Narvaez and Yelich back, JBJ’s hits to start falling in, and an adequate first baseman and this offense would be fine. I do think they have positive progression toward the mean for a couple guys like Cain and JBJ that will help us get going. Yelich being out and the lack of another elite bat in the lineup is why we struggle to consistently score.

 

I hope Stearns focuses on signing an All-Star BAT to this lineup in the offseason and I think it would go a long way in other guys being able to settle into roles that are better suited for them. Taking pressure off of some of the other guys that normally wouldn’t find themselves in significant run producing positions and being expected to carry an offense.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Wong was signed for his defense and his bat is good enough for the position but he is not a good hitter.

 

I.... what?

[MrTPlush]

Kolton Wong is not a good hitter, he is an average hitter. He is like the definition of average. Again, nothing wrong with that considering his defense. As an overall player he is pretty good.

 

But one our Top 3 or 4 hitters? That’s rough. Not saying he was a bad signing, it was a good signing. However, what is bad is Stearns didn’t do enough to improve the offense to the point Wong is not a top hitter on our team.

[owbc]

Wait, I thought people were asking for more mediocre hitters who can hit to the opposite field, bunt, and steal bases?

 

Or I guess we could have signed Mookie Betts...

[stoutdude04]

Kolton Wong is not a good hitter, he is an average hitter. He is like the definition of average. Again, nothing wrong with that considering his defense. As an overall player he is pretty good.

 

But one our Top 3 or 4 hitters? That’s rough. Not saying he was a bad signing, it was a good signing. However, what is bad is Stearns didn’t do enough to improve the offense to the point Wong is not a top hitter on our team.

 

If I had to guess...I would think they thought Yelich, Hiura, and Narvaez, etc would hit closer to the norm. This would make the defense of Wong and JBJ more valuable. Now, seeing one injured and the other fall off the face of the earth to go along with the older players looking old, well that probably wasn't expected.

 

Edit: Also, it isn't like they didn't try to improve the offense. They did, but it just didnt pan out(Turner).

[brewers888]

 

Wong was signed for his defense and his bat is good enough for the position but he is not a good hitter.

 

I.... what?

 

Wong is a perfectly adequate hitter for the position he plays but his bat is nothing special so his value is tied up in his defense which is excellent.