Brewers' Offense

[DHonks]

There wasn't really much to indicate Grisham would have staying value in the big leagues. At the start of 2019 most fans had given up all hope and just a few of us were holding out. The weird thing was he got to MLB due to a strong year with the bat, but was knocked for his defense...AND last year he won the gold glove!

 

We sold high on Davies as he was another person that people were down on. His mysterious velocity drop (from low 90s in 2017-18 to 88 in 2019) in 2019 was concerning, even if the results improved. He didn't have much control left, and other teams likely would have overpaid for him. Right now, the trade looks like a slight advantage for the Padres, but by the end of this season it could already flip to the Brewers' advantage with years to come. My concern with Lauer is that he doesn't have an out pitch. His breaking stuff doesn't fool hitters, and his heater isn't hard enough. But hopefully he works on things and improves

[adambr2]

Don't really agree that there wasn't much to indicate that Grisham would have staying power in the bigs. Maybe that was true pre-2019, but certainly not when the trade occurred.

 

I think most realized Grisham could be a big loss and we were just hoping Urias would end up being good enough to offset it.

[MrTPlush]

There wasn't really much to indicate Grisham would have staying value in the big leagues. At the start of 2019 most fans had given up all hope and just a few of us were holding out. The weird thing was he got to MLB due to a strong year with the bat, but was knocked for his defense...AND last year he won the gold glove!

 

Are we really judging Grisham's staying power based on what fans thought? Fans, generally, are terrible when it comes to high school prospects. They take longer and usually see more struggles. People will throw in the towel on a high pick HS guy before they can legally buy a drink. He had a nice debut in the minors and then they changed his swing. After that he was pretty rough until they let him go back to his old swing. That is when he started to rebound.

 

I always liked Grisham. With his speed and ability to take walks he only need to hit .260ish to have an OBP over .350. That alone was the makings of a nice #1 or #2 hitter. Of course in the 2019 break out year he also found power to really up his ceiling. Now he looks like a Corey Hart type talent, maybe even a bit higher ceiling than that.

 

It is a bummer we don't have that now. I still think Urias has potential, but sure don't think he is ever going to have the offensive ceiling Grisham has. Obviously Stearns thought he could cover the OF just fine with other players...hasn't really worked out very well since.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think the Brewers perhaps pigeonholed Grisham as a leftfielder with limited power potential (maybe 20-25 HRs). I don't think they ever saw him as a regular centerfielder, which was perhaps their biggest mistake in this transaction. With the way the Brewers seem to value up-the-middle athletes, if they truly saw Grisham as the centerfielder of the future, I don't think there is any way they would have traded him. I don't think they lost faith in him, but when offered the chance to grab a 22-year-old blue-chip SS that was MLB-ready, in exchange for a limited-ceiling corner OF (in their eyes) they couldn't say no.

 

If there is one silver lining, it's that thankfully it is easier to fill OF spots via free agency than it is middle infield spots.

[pacopete4]

And if Eric Lauer ends up being a good pitcher, the Urias part won't matter much. Pitching wins. We can find outfielders.

[MrTPlush]

And if Eric Lauer ends up being a good pitcher, the Urias part won't matter much. Pitching wins. We can find outfielders.

 

Really? Cause we have spent a lot of money the last two offseason on OFers without much production. I hope Lauer pitches good, but if he was that promising he would not be in the bullpen.

 

In response to the trade, I think they were just that high on Urias. Wasn't the understanding they had to throw in Davies to get the deal done? I think Stearns was also trying to sell high on Grisham a bit as he thought he could find OF talent elsewhere. I am not sure they were that high on him though either. A 20-25 HR outfielder with plus speed and serious on-base skills is a pretty valuable player. If they really thought he could be that guy I doubt they trade him. Especially trade him just to go spend $10mil on Avisail Garcia, who has saw an OPS over .800 once in 10 years. Guessing they thought Grisham was more like a .750 OPS guy long term. That would have been easily replaceable and a higher ceiling guy like Urias made some sense.

 

I think people would view this trade a tad differently if Garcia would have had a solid 2020 to pair with how he has been so far in 2021...same for Lauer. Right now we have paid Garcia $10mil to be terrible in 2020, Lauer was terrible in 2020, Grisham has been stellar, Urias has been bad, and Davies gave the Padres a stellar 2020. Quite a few players in the trade and we got the short end of the stick on every one of them so far.

[pacopete4]

And if Eric Lauer ends up being a good pitcher, the Urias part won't matter much. Pitching wins. We can find outfielders.

 

Really? Cause we have spent a lot of money the last two offseason on OFers without much production. I hope Lauer pitches good, but if he was that promising he would not be in the bullpen.

 

Yes, really. Pitching wins in this league. If Lauer ends up being good it won't matter that Grisham is also good. We are seeing it with our own eyes right now how much pitching truly matters with winning.

[MrTPlush]

And if Eric Lauer ends up being a good pitcher, the Urias part won't matter much. Pitching wins. We can find outfielders.

 

Really? Cause we have spent a lot of money the last two offseason on OFers without much production. I hope Lauer pitches good, but if he was that promising he would not be in the bullpen.

 

Yes, really. Pitching wins in this league. If Lauer ends up being good it won't matter that Grisham is also good. We are seeing it with our own eyes right now how much pitching truly matters with winning.

 

This is what I was referring to. I agree pitching is a better strength to have.

 

It reminds me of how people always say it is easy to find production at first base...but somehow we have garbage first baseman almost yearly. The two recent ones we had were quickly shipped off. When they let Thames walk Stearns even said he thought he could find production cheaper and spend the money elsewhere better. Luckily for Stearns Thames didn't hit at all in 2020 so his first base decision for 2020 doesn't look woefully horrendous...pretty much a lose-lose situation there.

[PeaveyFury]

It reminds me of how people always say it is easy to find production at first base...but somehow we have garbage first baseman almost yearly.

 

They've basically been able to produce effectively at 1B all but last season and this one, thus far. Every other year since Fielder, really, they've been able to play a rotation of 'random 1B X', with X changing every year or two, with acceptable production. Smoak made a ton of sense in that regard last year, and it obviously didn't work. But otherwise, they've done it pretty well historically.

[homer]

If Yelich wasn't hurt and was hitting his career OPS (869) does that translate into a significantly better offense?

[MrTPlush]

If Yelich wasn't hurt and was hitting his career OPS (869) does that translate into a significantly better offense?

 

Long term it sure would be nice, probably not significantly though. Past tense I am not sure it would. A couple guys have been on hot streaks while roaming the OF so I am not sure what the production in his absence has been like. For instance Taylor has been the main guy during his absence and has hit to the tune of a .790 OPS. That isn't an insane difference, so it would be a large improvement, but not earth shattering.

 

A significant difference would probably be something along the lines of Jesus Aguilar still on the team playing first base. That has got to be at least a .200+ OPS difference versus what we have trotted out there so far. That is making a black hole suddenly go to All Star level production.

Edited May 13, 2021 by MrTPlush

[timpep]

If Yelich wasn't hurt and was hitting his career OPS (869) does that translate into a significantly better offense?

 

If the star player with chronic back issues didn't have chronic back issues I think the offense would be better, probably still below average but better. Unfortunately Yelich had chronic back issues, and we can't make them go away with hypotheticals.

[adambr2]

And if Eric Lauer ends up being a good pitcher, the Urias part won't matter much. Pitching wins. We can find outfielders.

 

Really? Cause we have spent a lot of money the last two offseason on OFers without much production. I hope Lauer pitches good, but if he was that promising he would not be in the bullpen.

 

Yes, really. Pitching wins in this league. If Lauer ends up being good it won't matter that Grisham is also good. We are seeing it with our own eyes right now how much pitching truly matters with winning.

 

How good do you expect Lauer to be? If he turns into a left handed ace then yeah it doesn't matter what Grisham is but the dude is almost certainly more of a serviceable 4-5 at best in which case it certainly matters if you gave up a star outfielder for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How good do you expect Lauer to be? If he turns into a left handed ace then yeah it doesn't matter what Grisham is but the dude is almost certainly more of a serviceable 4-5 at best in which case it certainly matters if you gave up a star outfielder for him.

 

Trent Grisham's .OPS has been in steady decline since his high water mark of 1.025 on April 22 after starting the year on a tremendous hot streak. Perhaps we should hold off at least for a little while longer before anointing him a "star outfielder". The jury is still out on him.

 

Jury is still out on Lauer as well. I don't think it's prudent at this point to call him "almost certainly" anything yet.

[pacopete4]

I don't really have an expectation for him. He has looked very good at times but also absolutely terrible in 2020. If I take out the 2020 season, he looks to be a pretty good pitcher and someone I'd be very happy having in our rotation. The problem is now those spots are becoming harder and harder to get. Hopefully, he can nab one and pitch like a #3 guy in a rotation.

 

1. Burnes

2. Woodruff

3. Peralta

4. Houser

5. Lauer

 

That is damn good if they pitch to their potential and will help win a lot of baseball games in Milwaukee if they continue to surround themselves with a strong back end of the pen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't really have an expectation for him. He has looked very good at times but also absolutely terrible in 2020. If I take out the 2020 season, he looks to be a pretty good pitcher and someone I'd be very happy having in our rotation. The problem is now those spots are becoming harder and harder to get. Hopefully, he can nab one and pitch like a #3 guy in a rotation.

 

1. Burnes

2. Woodruff

3. Peralta

4. Houser

5. Lauer

 

That is damn good if they pitch to their potential and will help win a lot of baseball games in Milwaukee if they continue to surround themselves with a strong back end of the pen.

 

I applaud you for putting Houser in the rotation LOL

 

Welcome to the Dark Side!

[adambr2]

How good do you expect Lauer to be? If he turns into a left handed ace then yeah it doesn't matter what Grisham is but the dude is almost certainly more of a serviceable 4-5 at best in which case it certainly matters if you gave up a star outfielder for him.

 

Trent Grisham's .OPS has been in steady decline since his high water mark of 1.025 on April 22 after starting the year on a tremendous hot streak. Perhaps we should hold off at least for a little while longer before anointing him a "star outfielder". The jury is still out on him.

 

Jury is still out on Lauer as well. I don't think it's prudent at this point to call him "almost certainly" anything yet.

 

He has a 117 career OPS+ in 651 plate appearances with high end defense at a premium defensive position. His WAR for a full projected season would have been 6.7 last year and would be at 6.3 so far this year.

 

If he was a Milwaukee Brewer we would most definitely be throwing around the word "star" when discussing him.

[pacopete4]

I don't really have an expectation for him. He has looked very good at times but also absolutely terrible in 2020. If I take out the 2020 season, he looks to be a pretty good pitcher and someone I'd be very happy having in our rotation. The problem is now those spots are becoming harder and harder to get. Hopefully, he can nab one and pitch like a #3 guy in a rotation.

 

1. Burnes

2. Woodruff

3. Peralta

4. Houser

5. Lauer

 

That is damn good if they pitch to their potential and will help win a lot of baseball games in Milwaukee if they continue to surround themselves with a strong back end of the pen.

 

I applaud you for putting Houser in the rotation LOL

 

Welcome to the Dark Side!

 

He's there to stay. He's been fine. I don't enjoy him when he's pitching usually but he's been just fine this season. I still think he would be a heckuva weapon in that pen. It's too bad Lindblom absolutely has stunk.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Brew4U

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How good do you expect Lauer to be? If he turns into a left handed ace then yeah it doesn't matter what Grisham is but the dude is almost certainly more of a serviceable 4-5 at best in which case it certainly matters if you gave up a star outfielder for him.

 

Trent Grisham's .OPS has been in steady decline since his high water mark of 1.025 on April 22 after starting the year on a tremendous hot streak. Perhaps we should hold off at least for a little while longer before anointing him a "star outfielder". The jury is still out on him.

 

Jury is still out on Lauer as well. I don't think it's prudent at this point to call him "almost certainly" anything yet.

 

He has a 117 career OPS+ in 651 plate appearances with high end defense at a premium defensive position. His WAR for a full projected season would have been 6.7 last year and would be at 6.3 so far this year.

 

If he was a Milwaukee Brewer we would most definitely be throwing around the word "star" when discussing him.

 

Oh without a doubt! But remember that a lot of people threw that word around with Keston Hiura following his debut in 2019, and even through the first part of last year's abbreviated season. It will be interesting to see if Grisham's decline over the last month is simply an outlier, or if MLB pitching is learning his tendencies and how to effectively attack him, like they did with Hiura.

 

Not that it matters a lot, but Grisham only has 559 career MLB plate appearances, not 651.

[adambr2]

 

Oh without a doubt! But remember that a lot of people threw that word around with Keston Hiura following his debut in 2019, and even through the first part of last year's abbreviated season. It will be interesting to see if Grisham's decline over the last month is simply an outlier, or if MLB pitching is learning his tendencies and how to effectively attack him, like they did with Hiura.

 

Not that it matters a lot, but Grisham only has 559 career MLB plate appearances, not 651.

 

You're not wrong, I had no real reason to think that Keston didn't have an extremely bright future after '19. Sucks. He was THE bat in our system and not getting what we hoped out of him combined with the Yelich injuries is absolutely hamstringing our offense.

 

We'd be right up there with the best teams in the NL this year if we had the Yelich and Hiura we thought we'd get combined with our pitching.

 

I don't see Grisham following the same path as Hiura, less strikeout tendencies and doesn't seem to have the exploitable weaknesses like the high fastball that Hiura struggled with even when he had success. Obviously I'm not going to say it's not possible.

Edited May 13, 2021 by adambr2

[homer]

If Yelich wasn't hurt and was hitting his career OPS (869) does that translate into a significantly better offense?

 

If the star player with chronic back issues didn't have chronic back issues I think the offense would be better, probably still below average but better. Unfortunately Yelich had chronic back issues, and we can't make them go away with hypotheticals.

 

chronic? he played in 58/60 games last year. He fractured his knee cap in 2019 otherwise he would have played about 150 games. He played 147 in 2018 and the reason he missed two weeks was an oblique injury.

[Roderick]

How good do you expect Lauer to be? If he turns into a left handed ace then yeah it doesn't matter what Grisham is but the dude is almost certainly more of a serviceable 4-5 at best in which case it certainly matters if you gave up a star outfielder for him.

 

Trent Grisham's .OPS has been in steady decline since his high water mark of 1.025 on April 22 after starting the year on a tremendous hot streak. Perhaps we should hold off at least for a little while longer before anointing him a "star outfielder". The jury is still out on him.

 

Jury is still out on Lauer as well. I don't think it's prudent at this point to call him "almost certainly" anything yet.

 

He has a 117 career OPS+ in 651 plate appearances with high end defense at a premium defensive position. His WAR for a full projected season would have been 6.7 last year and would be at 6.3 so far this year.

 

If he was a Milwaukee Brewer we would most definitely be throwing around the word "star" when discussing him.

 

I'm pretty hesitant about assuming too much from a guy that wasn't great in the minors. But, when you hear about the switching his hands back on the bat the way he did before the Brewers tinkered with his swing, and the success he has seen since then.... Then I think this is probably legit.

[timpep]

 

chronic?

 

Yeah, he's dealt with it since the minor leagues. This spring he said it 'pops up once or twice a year'. That's literally the definition of chronic.

[adambr2]

Agreed with Roderick. This is a guy who was a legitimate 1st round pick and made some adjustments in the minors which resulted in a vast improvement. There was signs of a breakout coming in the minors well before these 500+ PAs at the MLB level.

 

Very likely that he's the real deal and not another David Bote story.

[Warning Track Power]

Minor League Statistics:

 

Trent Grisham

1929 PAs, 1590 ABs

 

AVG/OBP/OPS: .255/.376/.791

2B: 75

3B: 22

HR: 45

RBI: 192

SB: 91

BB: 304

 

Luis Urias

2401 PAs, 2051 ABs

 

AVG/OBP/OPS: .308/.397/.830

2B: 106

3B: 22

HR: 36

RBI: 219

SB: 42

BB: 256

 

At the time of the trade, when you have Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Ryan Braun in the OF and Orlando Arcia at SS, a straight-up trade of Grisham for Urias would have made sense. Statistically speaking alone, the Brewers dealt power and speed from a position of strength (OF) for batting average at a position of weakness (SS). While it is FAR too early to call the trade a loss, sometimes they work out that way.

 

I find it quite hard to fault Stearns for this move.