Brewers' Offense

[jonescm128]

Okay, I"m not a baseball coach (actually I am, I coach my 7 year old's machine pitch team), but can someone explain to me why professional baseball players only have one swing? I get the fact that they train their bodies and their swing technique's daily to get to a certain point to be able to be a 25%-28% successful batter in the Bigs, but why are hitting coaches and/or the players learning multiple swings? It completely phantoms me. Example: Keston Huira. Learn a 2nd swing to be able to sit back and wait for the outside slider. You know it's coming. You know pitchers aren't going to give you fastballs every single pitch so instead of going up to the plate every at-bat looking to drive a fastball... learn a slider swing so that when you are in a slump due to pitchers not giving you the pitches that YOU want...learn a swing that enables you to sit back and wait for the slider! Imagine that. Guess what's going to happen next....pitchers will stop throwing slider after slider because you're ripping them to the opposite field and get back to throwing you fastballs which you will drive out of the park.

 

Can someone please tell me why this isn't the case?

 

If it were this easy to just "learn a 2nd swing", do you not think there would be more success from major league hitters or just hitters at all levels? This game isn't easy. It never has been. And I hate to break it to a lot of fans, it never will be. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever with nastier stuff. Keston would probably be Babe Ruth if he played decades ago.

 

 

I get that the game is difficult. I love baseball and have been watching it for 40 years. I completely disagree with this though in that why wouldn't you as a professional not work on a different swing for different situations/pitches to foster the result of having the pitcher go back to throwing you pitches that are more in your wheelhouse? It really is as simple as a change in offensive philosophy. What are your strengths with hitting and what are your weaknesses? The other teams have all the stats on you on what areas of the plate you can't hit the ball. Sooooo, learn another swing that will.....maybe not produce the power or launch angles that your strengths result in...but at a minimum, a swing that will connect with the pitch that the pitchers are now throwing you because they know you can't hit it. Connect with the ball...put it in play and guess what....your stats will begin to change and pitchers will reduce the frequency of throwing you those pitches. It's really that simple.

 

You may be talking about a different approach as opposed to a different swing. Not as many players do it these days since strikeouts aren't as taboo as they used to be and analytics has moved the game to care more about slugging percentage than batting average and weak contact, but in a two strike count you used to see a lot of guys choke up on the bat (for more control), cut down on their load (for better timing), or even move up in the box (get in front of breaking balls). Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo still do this. David Eckstein did it back when he played. But as others have mentioned, pitchers are throwing with more velocity and break than ever before, so while its great in theory, its much harder to actually execute.

[brewtank34]

I hear ya. THanks for letting me vent.

[xisxisxis]

Almost every pitcher today is like Nolan Ryan. Years ago he was pretty unique. Today pitchers throw a lot harder with more spin. Players have even less time to "react" today than years ago. It's no coincidence that offense is dropping with the increase in average fastball speed. Plus more teams are now using the humidor (10 out of 30) so not only is it coming at a hitter faster, it has altered physics due to the humidor. Slight timing issues will easily throw a batter off and with Hiura's foot step approach he is just adding to the problem. Adjusting swing may seem simple, but it also can dramatically impact timing and location of contact when there is little room for error/adjustment in either of those.

[RollieTime]

Brewers have scored 3 runs or less in 17 of their 36 games. They have scored 2 runs or less in 13 games so far this season. They have scored a total of 135 runs this season. They are averaging 3.75 runs per game this season. If you remove their two highest scoring games (only 9 runs each), they are averaging 3.44 runs per game over the other 34.

 

That is not going to get it done. A 3.44 average would have the Brewers tied for the second worst offense in baseball, tied with the Pirates and only ahead of the Tigers.

 

The Brewers offense so far this season has scored less runs per game than the offense in 2020 that scored 4.02 runs per game.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Any team's offense will be bad when you start cherry picking and take away their best performances and say "with their best performances removed, they average less runs per game".

 

You don't even need to cherry pick to say "the Brewers offense is pretty bad", so I don't even see the relevance of the exercise.

 

The Cardinals have scored 3 runs or less in 16 games, which is one less than the Brewers, and they have the best record in the NL.

The Giants have scored 3 runs or less in 16 games.

 

Even the vaunted Dodgers offense has scored 3 or fewer runs in 16 games. It happens.

 

That doesn't mean the Brewers offense isn't bad, but this isn't a measuring stick of success or failure.

[SeaBass]

I looked at the Brewers run scoring on Monday since they didn't play that day. They've only actually lost 6 games where they've scored 3, 4 or 5 runs. They are undefeated when scoring 6 or more (two of those were in extra innings).

 

By far their most losses have been when they've scored 2 or fewer runs, which in itself isn't surprising. The depressing part is, including yesterday, that encompasses 13 games (36% of their total games played) and their record in such games is 2-11.

 

So all other games when they've scored 3 or more runs they're 17-6.

 

Breakdown:

2 or fewer runs: 2-11 record (3 shutouts, 0-4 when scoring 1 run)

3 to 5 runs: 7-6 record

6 or more runs: 10-0 record

[JosephC]

Urias is now up to 349 MLB plate appearances against right-handed pitching and the slash line sits at .186/.298/.275/.573. It's been better this season but is still only at .198/.309/.358/.667. Have to start having some serious doubts.

 

I just look at the lineup and historical performance and it sure looks like Yelich might have to come back and be a 1.000+ OPS guy to save this offense. When looking at upside/downside...I just don't see a big upward move with the players currently on the 40-man roster. Bradley will definitely be better, but a big bump in his performance will likely be offset by the coming back to earth of Narvaez who isn't finishing the season with a .443 OBP and .972 OPS. Shaw, I think the .313 OBP/.720 OPS is probably right about the player he is now. Garcia's .344 OBP is probably a little on the high side but the OPS is just about at the career mark (.749 versus .746). It's looking like Cain's 2019 season was not a fluke outlier. It sure seems like Hiura is in for a LONG trip to the minors. Vogelbach could go on a hot streak....if he doesn't get released first. Looking at the rest of the 40-man roster and I sure as heck don't see a July callup that is going to get here and set the world on fire. If the Brewers are counting on Derek Fisher to save the team, then the team has problems.

[dlk9s]

I was about to say that hitting is crappy all over MLB this year, but wow, I just looked at the stats and the Brewers are last in the NL in OPS and last in MLB in OPS+.

 

EDIT: Second in MLB in HBP, though!

[brewers888]

Is there any downside whatsoever to firing Haines because I see none whatsoever.

[roadcrew3]

Is there any downside whatsoever to firing Haines because I see none whatsoever.

 

I understand this sentiment but also what difference does it make who the hitting coach is when you are putting out lineups that have Pablo Reyes, Billy McKinney, Vogelbach etc. getting significant playing time. A lot of players are scuffling but if this offense was "going good" it would still be below league average.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Is there any downside whatsoever to firing Haines because I see none whatsoever.

 

I understand this sentiment but also what difference does it make who the hitting coach is when you are putting out lineups that have Pablo Reyes, Billy McKinney, Vogelbach etc. getting significant playing time. A lot of players are scuffling but if this offense was "going good" it would still be below league average.

 

Bingo. Even the best hitting coach wouldn't be able to squeeze blood from this turnip.

[wibadgers23]

I was about to say that hitting is crappy all over MLB this year, but wow, I just looked at the stats and the Brewers are last in the NL in OPS and last in MLB in OPS+.

 

EDIT: Second in MLB in HBP, though!

 

We have to be last or close to last in just about every offensive category.

[DuWayne Steurer]

One thing's for sure, there's going to be no quick fix.

 

There's a lot of guys underperforming. Cain, JBJ, Huira, you can probably put Vogelbach in that bunch too, I would suppose. There's a general lack of offense around the league, but even with that, the Brewers are dead last, so the Brewers are underperforming according to league standards. I don't thin Shaw is underperforming, based on what he did the last few years. He's just not a great hitter anymore and expecting 2016-2017 Shaw is unrealistic.

 

We've had a BUNCH of dudes go on the IL, and with that, we've had a LOT of PA's get eaten up by replacement level, and below replacement level guys like Maile, Pablo Reyes, McKinney, etc, etc, etc, etc.

 

The problem is made worse by the fact that we don't have anyone ready in the top levels of the minors to step in and play at the MLB level right away.

 

Firing the hitting coach is 90% likely not gonna do a thing. "Stearns needs to do something!!!!" probably won't happen in early-mid May. There just isn't a lot of big trades (or even significant trades) that happen this early in the season. And if there's guys sitting around ready to play not on a roster, there's other GM's and teams looking for offense too. It sucks, but this is the position we're in, at least for a while. Yelich hopefully will be back soon, and MAYBE a few of these guys can crawl a little closer to career norms, but tbh I think this is a "this is what it is" situation for at least the short term, unless someone pulls a magic rabbit out of their hat and remembers how to hit again.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Offense was doomed to be awful without Yelich and Hiura doing literally anything. There is just no way this group can compensate for that. It's incredible this team isn't 12-24.

[MrTPlush]

This offense was doomed to be a failure before Yelich got hurt or Hiura proved he does indeed suck like his 2020 self.

 

He has an outfield that was Yelich, an ancient Cain that probably can’t hit well, and an Avisail Garcia that hasn’t hit outside of two seasons in his entire career. So for insurance he went and paid $13mil for an OFer who can’t hit.

 

His infield included a Shaw that hasn’t hit for years, Arcia/Urias who never hit a lick in their entire careers, Wong who isn’t known to hit that much, Hiura who strikes out at a 30%+ clip while being terrible in 2020, and Vogelbach who has never really been much his entire career.

 

Sure there was optimism for some of these guys (and still is)...but this was not a promising group heading into the season, not even close. Injuries aren’t helping, that’s for sure, but even then the offense is not a pretty group of guys even while healthy.

[adambr2]

3B is still a major need and the Cardinals are on the hook for Arenado at a reasonable clip of about 21M a year going forward for 7 years. Those are the kinds of moves that we could have made to push us over the top and we could afford to make them if we weren't over-investing in mediocre or defense-only outfield depth every season.

 

That and not trading Grisham alone would have changed the entire outlook of this offense.

 

Stearns had an amazingly good first few years as GM, and he has absolutely bombed the last 2 years.

[pacopete4]

Absolutely bombed? A bit too early for that call.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Absolutely bombed? A bit too early for that call.

 

Right ... also, I am impressed with what Trent Grisham has done as a Padre as well, but I think we should probably hold off on unveiling his Hall of Fame bust, at least for a little while.

[adambr2]

Absolutely bombed? A bit too early for that call.

 

Well, it's certainly early, but where are the good moves the last two years? Feyereisen trade for sure. Wong looks fine so far. Gyorko did fine. JBJ looks like a bust. Garcia looks like a bust. Urias/Grisham trade looks like a bomb. Sogard, Morrison, Smoak, Holt, all busts. Lindblom looks like a bust.

 

The Yelich long-term extension, although certainly early, absolutely is concerning at this point in time.

 

Maybe bombed is too strong but the batting average is certainly low.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Absolutely bombed? A bit too early for that call.

 

Well, it's certainly early, but where are the good moves the last two years? Feyereisen trade for sure. Wong looks fine so far. Gyorko did fine. JBJ looks like a bust. Garcia looks like a bust. Urias/Grisham trade looks like a bomb. Sogard, Morrison, Smoak, Holt, all busts. Lindblom looks like a bust.

 

The Yelich long-term extension, although certainly early, absolutely is concerning at this point in time.

 

Maybe bombed is too strong but the batting average is certainly low.

 

Narvaez has certainly turned things around enough to make it appear at least that his 2020 was an aberration. Boxberger has looked like a good value signing, as was Phelps last year (who pitched well, then was dealt for assets). Lauer has looked like a whole different pitcher so far, albeit in a small sample. Perdomo looks to be a nice find. Topa looked great last year. Yardley pitched very well last year, and looks like a solid depth piece. McKinney has been good at times, but has gone cold lately.

 

I agree that some of the "name" acquisitions have been major disappointments, but he's also managed to mine some decent depth.

[pacopete4]

-Why is Avi Garcia a bust?

-Why does the Grisham trade look like a bomb? Lauer has looked good this season and we have seen some spurts from Urias. This one is far from over in my opinion.

-Wong has been as good as advertised, if not better.

-JP looks great. Shaw has been solid.

-Narvaez is a stud.

-The JBJ signing was always a questionable one but there wasn't much left on the market and there is a long season to go.

-Most of the rest listed there are journeyman deals that you fill rosters with. Using 2020 season for any sort of indication of our GM or any GM is just not a good way to go about things.

 

The Yelich extension is a thread of its own. It's hard to really rate that as anything as they haven't even entered the extension yet. How much did the GM have to do with it? Lots of questions there. Not only that but Yelich could very well be just fine over the length of it. Mentioning it now doesn't do much for me regarding looking at Stearns.

 

 

There IS a reason we are winning A LOT of baseball games under Steans and co. I get that we are fans and we can be hard on just about anything but I also think we can't see how good it has been at times either.

[trwi7]

-Most of the rest listed there are journeyman deals that you fill rosters with.

 

Stearns projected them as starters.

[pacopete4]

-Most of the rest listed there are journeyman deals that you fill rosters with.

 

Stearns projected them as starters.

 

Your point? He filled holes left by guys leaving in free agency for cheap for a single season. He didn't mortgage the future of the team when there was not really anyone to grab. Not only that but it was a covid year so in hindsight, it turned out to be a great thing for the Brewers. The whining some fans do amazes me when most won't look at the full picture.

[trwi7]

-Most of the rest listed there are journeyman deals that you fill rosters with.

 

Stearns projected them as starters.

 

Your point? He filled holes left by guys leaving in free agency for cheap for a single season. He didn't mortgage the future of the team when there was not really anyone to grab. Not only that but it was a covid year so in hindsight, it turned out to be a great thing for the Brewers. The whining some fans do amazes me when most won't look at the full picture.

 

You said he filled the roster with journeymen but those journeymen were starters for us. That is not great. Wonderful that he didn't mortgage the future but he paid for some real garbage last year, which is kind of what we're discussing.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm encouraged by the start of Zach Green at AAA. In his last 78 games at AAA he's hit 28 home runs and driven in 74 runs. He didn't play at all in 2020, but he seems to have picked up where he left off. Given the needs at the corner infield spots for a RH power bat, I can't believe they'll wait too long before they add him to the major league roster. They need a DH next week in Kansas City anyway. Why not Green?

 

He's the one guy beyond the return of Yelich and Narvaez that has some potential to give the offense a boost. Once you have a guy or two in the lineup to put some fear in the opposition, it will help everybody.

Edited May 12, 2021 by JohnBriggs12