Brewers' Offense

[trwi7]

I guess I don't understand how position matters when you're talking about the offense as a whole. I don't care who produces the runs. WAR seems like it would matter if you're comparing overall player performance but seems less useful than ops or ops+ when looking at overall run production.

 

The original poster wasn't talking about the offense as a whole, he was talking about three specific players.

 

Right, I was disputing the "well established track records" of those 3 by using their last 5 years of offensive production. None of them have well established track records of offensive production which was my entire point. They've all had a couple of good years, they've all had a couple of below average years. You don't know what you're actually getting offensively but we can't really be surprised if those 3 don't have good years offensively when they have had years in the very recent past (including years that you can't excuse for weird COVID reasons) where their offensive numbers were, let's just say less than ideal.

[KeithStone53151]

Currently we are tied for the 4th lowest average runs per game in the league. 4th lowest avg, lowest ops, 4th lowest bb, 3rd highest strikeouts. I don't think anybody predicted the offense would be this bad, take it as small sample and it will probably improve. I personally would bet heavily we don't maintain a 515 OPS as a team for the entire season.

 

While it's great the offense has improved to a 623 OPS since I posted on this earlier this week, we are still currently 2nd lowest in ops and 2nd lowest in avg. The only team we beat in those categories is the Cubs, which admittedly is fun considering their antics yesterday. So while the offense has improved, still a long way to go to make up for that dismal first week of stats.

[Warning Track Power]

Right, I was disputing the "well established track records" of those 3 by using their last 5 years of offensive production. None of them have well established track records of offensive production which was my entire point. They've all had a couple of good years, they've all had a couple of below average years. You don't know what you're actually getting offensively but we can't really be surprised if those 3 don't have good years offensively when they have had years in the very recent past (including years that you can't excuse for weird COVID reasons) where their offensive numbers were, let's just say less than ideal.

I guess this leads us to a larger issue then. The Garcias, Narvaezs, JBJs, Wongs, etc. have all had years well above and well below 100 for OPS+ which, when averaged, gets you to league average hitters. The benefits could be enormous if they all put together one of their well above 100 OPS+ years or the challenges could be enormous if they all have one of their off years. Perhaps identifying players with less extreme outcomes is the approach the Brewers should be taking going forward. It leads us to see games like yesterday where the Brewers only score twice, as opposed to the 3 games prior where they seemingly hit everything.

[monty57]

The Brewers have scored the 11th most runs in baseball (5th most in the National League). They're below average in HR, Avg, OBP, SLG, OPS, and the only thing they seem to be above average in is Stolen Bases (and I assume base running as a whole), but they're scoring more runs than most of the other teams that don't have the luxury of a designated hitter. They have also had injuries to some of their key players.

 

Maybe being good on the base-paths is working for them, maybe they're "clutch," or maybe we can't make any predictions over a sample set of two weeks.

 

It looks to me like they started off slow and are heating up. They're supposed to be a team built on pitching and defense, so if they end the season with the 5th most runs scored in the National League, I think we'll be watching the Brewers in the playoffs this year.

[Warning Track Power]

It looks to me like they started off slow and are heating up. They're supposed to be a team built on pitching and defense, so if they end the season with the 5th most runs scored in the National League, I think we'll be watching the Brewers in the playoffs this year.

Provided the injury bug stays away from them more than it has in the first two weeks of the season. If Yelich, Cain and Wong injuries don't linger, and nothing happens to Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, I think this team has the potential to be better than the 87 wins I pegged them for at the beginning of the season. Especially if the Brewers have the 5th most runs scored in the NL.

[sveumrules]

Overall the Brewers position players are currently sporting an 84 wRC+, which is 27th in MLB.

 

With runners in scoring position their wRC+ has been 143, 3rd in MLB.

 

We're still only dealing with a sample representing about 7% of the season, so both those numbers are likely due for heavy regression yet.

 

BaseRuns, which removes sequencing to arrive at a projected run scored/allowed totals, thinks the Brewers should have scored about 3.76 runs per game so far instead of their actual 4.42 mark.

[FVBrewerFan]

Overall the Brewers position players are currently sporting an 84 wRC+, which is 27th in MLB.

 

With runners in scoring position their wRC+ has been 143, 3rd in MLB.

 

We're still only dealing with a sample representing about 7% of the season, so both those numbers are likely due for heavy regression yet.

 

BaseRuns, which removes sequencing to arrive at a projected run scored/allowed totals, thinks the Brewers should have scored about 3.76 runs per game so far instead of their actual 4.42 mark.

 

They may be due for heavy regression on those RISP numbers, but they could also improve drastically on their 27th overall wRC+? So they could certainly maintain or even improve on the 4.42 RPG.

[sveumrules]

Overall the Brewers position players are currently sporting an 84 wRC+, which is 27th in MLB.

 

With runners in scoring position their wRC+ has been 143, 3rd in MLB.

 

We're still only dealing with a sample representing about 7% of the season, so both those numbers are likely due for heavy regression yet.

 

BaseRuns, which removes sequencing to arrive at a projected run scored/allowed totals, thinks the Brewers should have scored about 3.76 runs per game so far instead of their actual 4.42 mark.

 

They may be due for heavy regression on those RISP numbers, but they could also improve drastically on their 27th overall wRC+? So they could certainly maintain or even improve on the 4.42 RPG.

 

Exactly. For whatever it is or isn't worth Fangraphs & Pecota project the Brewers to score around 4.6 to 4.8 runs per game for the season, so I'd take the over on 4.42 after another 150 games.

[jjfanec]

Do the Brewers have anyone whose numbers suggest they are due to regress soon? I know BABIP isnt perfect because it doesnt take type of contact into play but I figured I would look at that to see who is most likely to regress.

 

I would guess Narvaez, his BABIP is really high and obviously he wont sustain what he is doing. Yelich also had an incredibly high BABIP when he was playing. However Yelich also wont strikeout like he did so there may be some evening out there.

 

Shaw is actually just hitting really well. It doesnt look like he is getting lucky. Stats seems to back up his numbers but he could regress some when looking at career numbers.

 

On the unlucky side of thing Garcia is crushing the ball but has a really low BABIP. He seems like he is has a chance to jump up. Urias has a super low BABIP (.158) which will likely jump up. Jackie Bradley Jr is also really low (.227) but has made solid contact. So that should increase and hopefully the K's decrease. And in the small sample size Wong was also super low (.154). Our 1b duo has a really low BABIP as well (1.55 or so combined).

 

So I think it could safely be said that half of our offense is getting fairly unlucky. If those guys even see their BABIP go to .260-.280 that will be a huge jump for our offense.

[timpep]

It's possible Shaw regresses some, but I think what he's doing now is pretty close to the real deal. The catcher duo will almost certainly regress a bit. Otherwise I think going forward basically every other position beyond C/3B is likely to perform better than they have been.

[Oxy]

It's possible that the Brewer offense is even better than they "should" be against mediocre pitching and worse than they "should" be against good pitching. That would lead to higher "clutch" numbers or "lucky" sequencing to get runs but poor overall numbers-- and yet it would not necessarily mean it is random or unsustainable. It wouldn't bode well for the playoffs though.

[Eye Black]

Coming into tonight’s game here is the wRC+ for each Brewers hitter with 30+ plate appearances (100 is league average):

 

Omar Narvaez 158 wRC+

 

Christian Yelich 139 wRC+

 

Billy McKinney 120 wRC+

 

Avisail Garcia 110 wRC+

 

Luis Urias 108 wRC+

 

Travis Shaw 100 wRC+

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. 71 wRC+

 

Keston Hiura 51 wRC+

 

Daniel Robertson -27 wRC+

[JET15]

Coming into tonight’s game here is the wRC+ for each Brewers hitter with 30+ plate appearances (100 is league average):

 

Omar Narvaez 158 wRC+

 

Christian Yelich 139 wRC+

 

Billy McKinney 120 wRC+

 

Avisail Garcia 110 wRC+

 

Luis Urias 108 wRC+

 

Travis Shaw 100 wRC+

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. 71 wRC+

 

Keston Hiura 51 wRC+

 

Daniel Robertson -27 wRC+

 

 

Feels like Narvaez has to get moved up in the lineup. Shaw did well @4 for a while with RBIs, but his LOB has been going up. Luckily the pitching has been so good that it hasn't hurt us.

[pacopete4]

Narvaez has been moved up. He's been in the 2-hole and 5-hole pretty consistently lately. Shaw has run into some bad luck lately but is still finding ways to knock in runs.

[JET15]

Narvaez has been moved up. He's been in the 2-hole and 5-hole pretty consistently lately. Shaw has run into some bad luck lately but is still finding ways to knock in runs.

 

Yeah, I see Shaws Clutch #s are still the highest on the team, too. Even in the last 14 days when it has dropped off some. Narvaez's actually aren't as good as I expected.

[djoctagone]

i wish the issue was brewer's offense, but unfortunately, it's brewers' offense.

[jerichoholicninja]

[pacopete4]

Last 6 Games (MAY):

6 runs

4 runs

3 runs

5 runs

3 runs

0 runs

 

While it hasn't been great, it also hasn't been THAT bad. They're playing about as short-handed as can be and still hanging around.

[SeaBass]

MLB ranks (through 5/6):

23rd in runs scored (tied for 10th in NL)

26th in OPS (14th in NL)

 

That's not good.

Edited May 7, 2021 by SeaBass

[Hopper]

It can't be denied.

Our offense is offensive.

[brewtank34]

Okay, I"m not a baseball coach (actually I am, I coach my 7 year old's machine pitch team), but can someone explain to me why professional baseball players only have one swing? I get the fact that they train their bodies and their swing technique's daily to get to a certain point to be able to be a 25%-28% successful batter in the Bigs, but why are hitting coaches and/or the players learning multiple swings? It completely phantoms me. Example: Keston Huira. Learn a 2nd swing to be able to sit back and wait for the outside slider. You know it's coming. You know pitchers aren't going to give you fastballs every single pitch so instead of going up to the plate every at-bat looking to drive a fastball... learn a slider swing so that when you are in a slump due to pitchers not giving you the pitches that YOU want...learn a swing that enables you to sit back and wait for the slider! Imagine that. Guess what's going to happen next....pitchers will stop throwing slider after slider because you're ripping them to the opposite field and get back to throwing you fastballs which you will drive out of the park.

 

Can someone please tell me why this isn't the case?

[MrTPlush]

The offense is bad statistically. That’s even more concerning considering they have been very clutch and at one point pretty good with RISP. While those stats don’t necessarily have to rank closely to each other they were and probably still are way off of each other.

 

The offense is already considered bad and statistics would hint at a large regression backwards...not forwards.

[pacopete4]

Okay, I"m not a baseball coach (actually I am, I coach my 7 year old's machine pitch team), but can someone explain to me why professional baseball players only have one swing? I get the fact that they train their bodies and their swing technique's daily to get to a certain point to be able to be a 25%-28% successful batter in the Bigs, but why are hitting coaches and/or the players learning multiple swings? It completely phantoms me. Example: Keston Huira. Learn a 2nd swing to be able to sit back and wait for the outside slider. You know it's coming. You know pitchers aren't going to give you fastballs every single pitch so instead of going up to the plate every at-bat looking to drive a fastball... learn a slider swing so that when you are in a slump due to pitchers not giving you the pitches that YOU want...learn a swing that enables you to sit back and wait for the slider! Imagine that. Guess what's going to happen next....pitchers will stop throwing slider after slider because you're ripping them to the opposite field and get back to throwing you fastballs which you will drive out of the park.

 

Can someone please tell me why this isn't the case?

 

If it were this easy to just "learn a 2nd swing", do you not think there would be more success from major league hitters or just hitters at all levels? This game isn't easy. It never has been. And I hate to break it to a lot of fans, it never will be. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever with nastier stuff. Keston would probably be Babe Ruth if he played decades ago.

[MrTPlush]

Okay, I"m not a baseball coach (actually I am, I coach my 7 year old's machine pitch team), but can someone explain to me why professional baseball players only have one swing? I get the fact that they train their bodies and their swing technique's daily to get to a certain point to be able to be a 25%-28% successful batter in the Bigs, but why are hitting coaches and/or the players learning multiple swings? It completely phantoms me. Example: Keston Huira. Learn a 2nd swing to be able to sit back and wait for the outside slider. You know it's coming. You know pitchers aren't going to give you fastballs every single pitch so instead of going up to the plate every at-bat looking to drive a fastball... learn a slider swing so that when you are in a slump due to pitchers not giving you the pitches that YOU want...learn a swing that enables you to sit back and wait for the slider! Imagine that. Guess what's going to happen next....pitchers will stop throwing slider after slider because you're ripping them to the opposite field and get back to throwing you fastballs which you will drive out of the park.

 

Can someone please tell me why this isn't the case?

 

Hiura sucks and can’t even figure out one swing, how is he suppose to find success with another one? Is this the same logic Lindblom used when learning to pitch? Did he just keep learning pitches because the prior one sucked?

 

One terrible swing isn’t going to be fixed adding another one to the mix.

[brewtank34]

Okay, I"m not a baseball coach (actually I am, I coach my 7 year old's machine pitch team), but can someone explain to me why professional baseball players only have one swing? I get the fact that they train their bodies and their swing technique's daily to get to a certain point to be able to be a 25%-28% successful batter in the Bigs, but why are hitting coaches and/or the players learning multiple swings? It completely phantoms me. Example: Keston Huira. Learn a 2nd swing to be able to sit back and wait for the outside slider. You know it's coming. You know pitchers aren't going to give you fastballs every single pitch so instead of going up to the plate every at-bat looking to drive a fastball... learn a slider swing so that when you are in a slump due to pitchers not giving you the pitches that YOU want...learn a swing that enables you to sit back and wait for the slider! Imagine that. Guess what's going to happen next....pitchers will stop throwing slider after slider because you're ripping them to the opposite field and get back to throwing you fastballs which you will drive out of the park.

 

Can someone please tell me why this isn't the case?

 

If it were this easy to just "learn a 2nd swing", do you not think there would be more success from major league hitters or just hitters at all levels? This game isn't easy. It never has been. And I hate to break it to a lot of fans, it never will be. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever with nastier stuff. Keston would probably be Babe Ruth if he played decades ago.

 

 

I get that the game is difficult. I love baseball and have been watching it for 40 years. I completely disagree with this though in that why wouldn't you as a professional not work on a different swing for different situations/pitches to foster the result of having the pitcher go back to throwing you pitches that are more in your wheelhouse? It really is as simple as a change in offensive philosophy. What are your strengths with hitting and what are your weaknesses? The other teams have all the stats on you on what areas of the plate you can't hit the ball. Sooooo, learn another swing that will.....maybe not produce the power or launch angles that your strengths result in...but at a minimum, a swing that will connect with the pitch that the pitchers are now throwing you because they know you can't hit it. Connect with the ball...put it in play and guess what....your stats will begin to change and pitchers will reduce the frequency of throwing you those pitches. It's really that simple.