Brewers' Offense

[LouisEly]

Will the Brewers runs per game after 162 be closer to the 3.66 they posted over the first 44 games or the 4.52 mark they've been rocking in the 27 games since Willy got here?

 

Seems like a pretty easy call to me.

 

After pouring on 14 runs last night, the Brewers seasonal runs per game went from 4.09 (20th) to 4.22 (18th), so it took all of eight games for our seasonal mark to close that gap.

 

Brewers now at 25-10 post trade scoring 4.91 runs per games with a position player wRC+ of 104 in the Adames era.

Given the much less use of the DH in the NL, would ranking vs. the rest of the NL in terms of runs/game be more appropriate?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Fun to speculate, at full strength what is the optimal Brewer lineup 1-9. Assuming against a righty. I’m riding Jace as long as he’s hot, he’s my 1b.

 

Wong

Jace

Adames

Yelich

Garcia

Narvaez

Urias

Pitcher SPOT

Cain

 

 

Defensively pretty good and maybe Haines could harp on not chasing so much.

[JohnBriggs12]

How much longer can they keep trotting out JBJ and his .524 OPS especially when they have to keep playing Yelich and hoping he returns to a fraction of what he was? Hasn't Taylor shown enough to play every day? His OPS isn't all star caliber but it is .224 higher than Bradley. Sure JBJ saves a run now and then with his defense but not enough to justify having his bat in the lineup in a playoff push. Maybe Cain can help in a few weeks and Peterson can fill in on the corners but they need lots more production from the OF.

[adambr2]

It's hard to believe JBJ has been this bad. He's never been an elite hitter, but he's been relatively consistent most of his career. His lowest OPS+ in the last 6 years was 89. To see him absolutely crater to a 43 this season at age 31 is bizarre.

[brewers888]

Unfortunately Bradley and Cain are going to keep playing CF instead of Taylor because of their big contracts. Big mistake not to give Taylor the starting job but this wouldn't be the first team to play the expensive veterans due to their big money contracts.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Unfortunately Bradley and Cain are going to keep playing CF instead of Taylor because of their big contracts. Big mistake not to give Taylor the starting job but this wouldn't be the first team to play the expensive veterans due to their big money contracts.

 

Right! Sure is a good thing they did what you wanted and cut bait on Avi Garcia last year!

[adambr2]

Cain's struggles are a little bit overstated. He's been okay. The bat isn't fantastic, but unlike with JBJ it's good enough for him to be a passable starter when you take his defense into account. The trouble has been health. He's got to stay on the field in the 2nd half.

[brewers888]

Cain sounds like he pretty much checked out since opting out last season pretty much admitting he didn't even try to stay in shape. At this point we shouldn't be expecting much out of him. Taylor has shown himself to be a pretty decent player and should be given a chance to play a lot more despite the two older veterans who don't have much upside.

[DHonks]

It's hard to believe JBJ has been this bad. He's never been an elite hitter, but he's been relatively consistent most of his career. His lowest OPS+ in the last 6 years was 89. To see him absolutely crater to a 43 this season at age 31 is bizarre.

 

He's also hit into some bad luck lately. In the last 3 weeks there's been several well hit liners snagged with shoestring grabs. I'm not defending him by any means, but he's been better lately than in April and May

 

Having said that, I'm of the play Taylor more bandwagon. When he plays, he hits the ball to all fields with authority.

[rickh150]

Taylor has a .748 OPS and 102 OPS+….

He definitely hits lefties better (.844 OPS and 128 OPS+), but .689 OPS and 94 OPS+ against righties when getting sporadic usage isn’t awful.

I’m all for playing him more regularly in center. Bradley still can be substituted in these games late when Brewers have lead.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Fun to speculate, at full strength what is the optimal Brewer lineup 1-9. Assuming against a righty. I’m riding Jace as long as he’s hot, he’s my 1b.

 

Wong

Jace

Adames

Yelich

Garcia

Narvaez

Urias

Pitcher SPOT

Cain

 

 

Defensively pretty good and maybe Haines could harp on not chasing so much.

 

Yeah, I'd swap Urias and Peterson, and maybe Yelich and Adames, but this personnel set is really cool and fun to hope on. Plus, Taylor.

[brewcrewdue80]

Baseball needs to allow teams to send down underperforming players playing out a FA contract. JBJ shouldn't be seeing action after this consistent crap worthless play. He still counts on the 40 man. I get the option limit on team controlled players, but a FA like Garcia or Narvaez last season, has to be held accountable for their suck. A team shouldn't be handcuffed with the player taking up a spot on the 25man. He's getting paid regardless. And if the guy doesn't work down in the minors a team can fine him then and only then for the refusal. Can't just go sit on your butt at home collecting the check.

[brewmann04]

The brewers needs to add a legit bat because the offense is pretty bad.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Cain sounds like he pretty much checked out since opting out last season pretty much admitting he didn't even try to stay in shape. At this point we shouldn't be expecting much out of him. Taylor has shown himself to be a pretty decent player and should be given a chance to play a lot more despite the two older veterans who don't have much upside.

 

Sounds like this is 90% conjecture and 10% reality.

[brewers888]

Cain sounds like he pretty much checked out since opting out last season pretty much admitting he didn't even try to stay in shape. At this point we shouldn't be expecting much out of him. Taylor has shown himself to be a pretty decent player and should be given a chance to play a lot more despite the two older veterans who don't have much upside.

 

Sounds like this is 90% conjecture and 10% reality.

 

Cain himself admitted to not staying in shape last season and struggled getting himself game ready this spring.

[gebc1997]

In the last 8 games, the Brewers have sent out their big 3 five times.

 

July 4, Peralta vs Tyler Anderson.

July 5, Woodruff vs Tylor Megill

July 7, Burnes vs deGrom

July 10, Peralta vs Gutierrez

July 11, Woodruff vs Castillo

 

Starters gave up a grand total of 8 runs in their first 6 innings

 

We faced 3 average pitchers and two good to great pitchers.

 

Team record in those 5 games :

 

0-5

 

 

 

That cannot happen.

 

We had an opportunity to put a stranglehold on this division by just winning 2 of those games and we missed it .

[brewers888]

In the last 8 games, the Brewers have sent out their big 3 five times.

 

July 4, Peralta vs Tyler Anderson.

July 5, Woodruff vs Tylor Megill

July 7, Burnes vs deGrom

July 10, Peralta vs Gutierrez

July 11, Woodruff vs Castillo

 

Starters gave up a grand total of 8 runs in their first 6 innings

 

We faced 3 average pitchers and two good to great pitchers.

 

Team record in those 5 games :

 

0-5

 

 

 

That cannot happen.

 

We had an opportunity to put a stranglehold on this division by just winning 2 of those games and we missed it .

 

Just a waste of great starting pitching.

[FVBrewerFan]

In the last 8 games, the Brewers have sent out their big 3 five times.

 

July 4, Peralta vs Tyler Anderson.

July 5, Woodruff vs Tylor Megill

July 7, Burnes vs deGrom

July 10, Peralta vs Gutierrez

July 11, Woodruff vs Castillo

 

Starters gave up a grand total of 8 runs in their first 6 innings

 

We faced 3 average pitchers and two good to great pitchers.

 

Team record in those 5 games :

 

0-5

 

 

 

That cannot happen.

 

We had an opportunity to put a stranglehold on this division by just winning 2 of those games and we missed it .

 

Yes, it can happen. And it's something that happens to every team in the history of baseball.

[sveumrules]

When the Brewers started the season 17-10, I don't think anyone realistically thought the team would maintain that pace, finish with 102 wins & take the division by a dozen games over the Cardinals, who were two games back at 15-10 then.

 

Regression set in quickly, with the Brewers losing six in a row & 13 of 17 overall to drop their record to 21-23 after 44 games. Now here, I do think some people did believe (& maybe even still do believe) this 77-78 win pace is representative of the team's true talent.

 

Then, the Willy Adames trade happened. The Brewers ran off a 30-10 stretch (which included a 5 game losing streak where they scored only 12 runs) bringing their season record to 51-33 after 84 games (98-99 win pace) which amounted to an eight game lead (15-16 pace) over the Reds. Again, I think most would agree these were not realistically maintainable paces & that the Brewers were not likely to waltz to the NL Central crown by double digits unobstructed.

 

Regression has once again set in, with the Brewers going 2-6 over their last 8 games before the break, cutting their division lead in half to 4 games.

 

But over-reacting to 27 or 17 or 44 or 40 or 84 or 8 or even 92 game stretches during a 162 game season is far from the best way to gauge a team's true talent level. The best way to predict future outcomes (though obviously still far from infallible) is to look at as much information as objectively as possible with a specific focus on certain measurements which correlate best with future performance.

 

Sounds like a lot for my puny human brain to handle, so I trust the computers, who don't seem too worried with current Division Odds of 85.7% vs 6.8% (PECOTA), 79.8% vs 15.7% (FanGraphs), 75.9% vs 19.7% (BRef), and 69% vs 22% (538) all favoring the Brewers heading into the break.

[sveumrules]

Entering today's game, Cincinnati position players have posted a 107 wRC+, -6.0 on the bases & -11.3 in the field, good for 11.7 WAR.

 

Brewers position players have posted a 96 wRC+, +5.3 on the bases & +20.1 in the field, good for 11.6 WAR.

 

For those curious why Stearns & company have a tendency to target multi-category contributors over bat only players, I feel like that is a pretty concise illustration as to why.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd really like to see the team with a healthy Wong and Cain at the same time. This hasn't happened during the Adames era right? Cain, man I had good vibes and hopes for him this season, and honestly been a bigger let down to me than Yelich for the year. Then you have Hiura who needs to go away for the rest of the season. Family pains or just overall talent, send him home with a trainer and hitting instructor. I hate he's prototypical AAAA each time down in AAA. Last 2 games each 1b PH replacement. 2PAs late in games, critical important ABs. 4Ks. Leading that all off with a comical attempt to push bunt a ball in to the outfield. How's that for confidence in yourself? Swung and missed at a ball today that literally is middle of plate belt high. Didnt even make contact. Not 1 pitch in the Miley game touched the meatball served on a platter to Hiura who whiffed. Think the stat is 15ks in last 30PAs. He's not better. He's hurting this team immensely on the roster. Send him away since we're stuck with JBJ for however long Cain is MIA. Pair of .150s hitters. 150s!

Wong

Urias

Yelich

Adames

Narvaez

Garcia

Tellez

Cain

 

Jace Peterson

Taylor first off the bench.

Can we trot that out soon please?

 

(Btw if we DFA JBJ how does his contract work? Money or not just bye)

Just think Uecker watches him bat worse than Uecker jokes about himself batting as a Catcher.

[sveumrules]

(Btw if we DFA JBJ how does his contract work? Money or not just bye)

 

Contract was announced as 2/24, but it's complicated, Cot's says...

 

21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout)

 

So the rest of 21 (2+ million) plus the buyouts (14.5 million). Would imagine JBJ can't pick up his PO for 22 if he's DFA, but if he somehow can (and 6.5 + 9.5 + 8 = 24 so maybe he can?) that's another three million.

 

TLDR DFA JBJ $$$$$

[Roderick]

(Btw if we DFA JBJ how does his contract work? Money or not just bye)

 

Contract was announced as 2/24, but it's complicated, Cot's says...

 

21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout)

 

So the rest of 21 (2+ million) plus the buyouts (14.5 million). Would imagine JBJ can't pick up his PO for 22 if he's DFA, but if he somehow can (and 6.5 + 9.5 + 8 = 24 so maybe he can?) that's another three million.

 

TLDR DFA JBJ $$$$$

 

I would assume if its a player option he gets paid even if we cut him.

[adambr2]

(Btw if we DFA JBJ how does his contract work? Money or not just bye)

 

Contract was announced as 2/24, but it's complicated, Cot's says...

 

21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout)

 

So the rest of 21 (2+ million) plus the buyouts (14.5 million). Would imagine JBJ can't pick up his PO for 22 if he's DFA, but if he somehow can (and 6.5 + 9.5 + 8 = 24 so maybe he can?) that's another three million.

 

TLDR DFA JBJ $$$$$

 

I would assume if its a player option he gets paid even if we cut him.

 

I would have to agree. That's a huge grievance waiting to happen if a team could circumvent a player option by DFAing a player.

 

Otherwise a team could just DFA any player at the very end of a season with an upcoming team unfriendly option.

[bork]

Bradley is one case where I really have no idea what he'll do. If he declines the option, he gets $6.5 million, but then he loses the $8 million buyout option for the next year right? Does he take the option next year, hope for a better year top get paid the next year (plus $8 million)? Or decline the option, take $6.5 and hope for something more than the additional $3 million next year?