Brewers' Offense

[Lathund]

I don’t think anyone (hopefully) is asking for ELITE offense. Even a subpar offense would be a huge jump compared to having the worst offense in MLB.

 

While I would certainly like the offense to be better too, it needs pointing out that it isn't the worst in MLB. By runs scored it's 22nd, by non-pitcher wRC+ 24th (Including pitchers it's 9th in the NL), by Fangraphs overall baserunning metric (BsR) 6th. So it's already subpar, essentially. Over the last 30 days position players have a 95 wRC+, good for 20th (Cardinals and Cubs are sitting at 84 in that time). Basically the offense is slowly coming around, because there were far more unsustainably bad than unsustainably good performances during that terrible early stretch. As players regress towards the mean (From both directions), Brewers offense has been getting better.

 

Now the big thing for me is that while we can now actually field a full lineup of 100+ wRC+ hitters with good defense, we run into problems when we have to go beyond that and the quality drops of big time. So for example while I'm happy with Urias at 3B both offensively and defensively, he is also the primary backup for 2B and SS, and an injury to either of those three positions weakens the team badly. So an average to above average 3B bat (Ideally with some positional flexibility) is an upgrade on the Reyes/Peterson/Robertsons of this world really, and that goes a long way and shouldn't be too hard to find.

 

So while we're all unhappy to varying degrees with regards to the offense and would like it to be better, can we stop the hyperbole? It's not the worst in MLB, and it's certainly not the worst lineup of all time that we've seen posters here declare it as.

[mtrebs]

I don’t think anyone (hopefully) is asking for ELITE offense. Even a subpar offense would be a huge jump compared to having the worst offense in MLB.

 

While I would certainly like the offense to be better too, it needs pointing out that it isn't the worst in MLB. By runs scored it's 22nd, by non-pitcher wRC+ 24th (Including pitchers it's 9th in the NL), by Fangraphs overall baserunning metric (BsR) 6th. So it's already subpar, essentially. Over the last 30 days position players have a 95 wRC+, good for 20th (Cardinals and Cubs are sitting at 84 in that time). Basically the offense is slowly coming around, because there were far more unsustainably bad than unsustainably good performances during that terrible early stretch. As players regress towards the mean (From both directions), Brewers offense has been getting better.

 

Now the big thing for me is that while we can now actually field a full lineup of 100+ wRC+ hitters with good defense, we run into problems when we have to go beyond that and the quality drops of big time. So for example while I'm happy with Urias at 3B both offensively and defensively, he is also the primary backup for 2B and SS, and an injury to either of those three positions weakens the team badly. So an average to above average 3B bat (Ideally with some positional flexibility) is an upgrade on the Reyes/Peterson/Robertsons of this world really, and that goes a long way and shouldn't be too hard to find.

 

So while we're all unhappy to varying degrees with regards to the offense and would like it to be better, can we stop the hyperbole? It's not the worst in MLB, and it's certainly not the worst lineup of all time that we've seen posters here declare it as.

 

The thing about stats is that they can argue different ways. The Brewers have the worst team batting average in MLB, and it’s not far off from the worst ever, so my comment is far from hyperbole.

[sveumrules]

The thing about stats is that they can argue different ways. The Brewers have the worst team batting average in MLB, and it’s not far off from the worst ever, so my comment is far from hyperbole.

 

The Pirates are batting 228/299/352 & scoring 3.50 runs per game.

 

The Brewers are batting 212/301/365 & scoring 3.99 runs per game.

 

Batting average tells an incomplete story as it excludes walks & extra base hits.

 

Yes, the Brewers have the worst batting average in MLB, but their offense as a whole has been objectively closer to average than to the worst in the league.

 

Runs per game are at 4.48 since the Adames trade, so they've actually been slightly above average for the last month.

[mtrebs]

The thing about stats is that they can argue different ways. The Brewers have the worst team batting average in MLB, and it’s not far off from the worst ever, so my comment is far from hyperbole.

 

The Pirates are batting 228/299/352 & scoring 3.50 runs per game.

 

The Brewers are batting 212/301/365 & scoring 3.99 runs per game.

 

Batting average tells an incomplete story as it excludes walks & extra base hits.

 

Yes, the Brewers have the worst batting average in MLB, but their offense as a whole has been objectively closer to average than to the worst in the league.

 

Runs per game are at 4.48 since the Adames trade, so they've actually been slightly above average for the last month.

 

I understand and yes, the offense has been better since the Adames trade. Still, the Brewers as a team are the least successful at getting a base hit. Walks only do good if you get a hit afterward (or a bunch of walks/errors like we saw a few weeks ago) so having the worst batting average is a hindrance there too. I guess I just didn’t think my comment was that far unfounded.

[timpep]

Offense around all of MLB has been up since the time of the Adames trade. Probably because it wasn't soon after the sticky stuff rumblings really started.

 

I think there will be some more regression towards the mean coming up, both good and bad. We've already seen some of the good with players like Vogie and the bad in players like Avi.

 

Overall I think the biggest offensive boost has come from subtraction. No more Hiura and Shaw is a big boost, especially with Wong back.

[jerichoholicninja]

Last night was probably the most of a Brewer game I've watched this year and I was amazed at what the Dbacks hitters were doing. They weren't swinging out of their shoes every single pitch. They were taking good, hard controlled cuts and you know what? They put the bat on the ball and got hits. They weren't homers and I don't even remember if there were any doubles I saw but they were linedrives through the infield. I distinctly remember Pavin Smith taking an easy swing and hitting one the opposite way through the shift. And he's a rookie. Maybe I witnessed a total anomaly but it was obvious to me that that approach can work. I don't want guys up there just looking to make contact at any and every pitch to avoid striking out but the whole homer or bust approach on every swing needs to change.

[PeaveyFury]

Last night was probably the most of a Brewer game I've watched this year and I was amazed at what the Dbacks hitters were doing. They weren't swinging out of their shoes every single pitch. They were taking good, hard controlled cuts and you know what? They put the bat on the ball and got hits. They weren't homers and I don't even remember if there were any doubles I saw but they were linedrives through the infield. I distinctly remember Pavin Smith taking an easy swing and hitting one the opposite way through the shift. And he's a rookie. Maybe I witnessed a total anomaly but it was obvious to me that that approach can work. I don't want guys up there just looking to make contact at any and every pitch to avoid striking out but the whole homer or bust approach on every swing needs to change.

 

But interestingly, the other thing the Diamondbacks are doing is losing. A lot.

[sveumrules]

Maybe I witnessed a total anomaly but it was obvious to me that that approach can work.

 

Diamondbacks position players have a 91 wRC+ so far this year, their approach isn't really working.

[brewcrewdue80]

The thing about stats is that they can argue different ways. The Brewers have the worst team batting average in MLB, and it’s not far off from the worst ever, so my comment is far from hyperbole.

 

The Pirates are batting 228/299/352 & scoring 3.50 runs per game.

 

The Brewers are batting 212/301/365 & scoring 3.99 runs per game.

 

Batting average tells an incomplete story as it excludes walks & extra base hits.

 

Yes, the Brewers have the worst batting average in MLB, but their offense as a whole has been objectively closer to average than to the worst in the league.

 

Runs per game are at 4.48 since the Adames trade, so they've actually been slightly above average for the last month.

 

You can thank Coors for getting the team BA over the all-time worst .210. Was .214 after it from I believe .206 low. Now .212. This is the easy stretch vs AZ,Col,AZ again. Let's see where they stand when some above .500 teams are played against for a stretch.

[pacopete4]

This is the easy stretch vs AZ,Col,AZ again. Let's see where they stand when some above .500 teams are played against for a stretch.

 

This was through the 60 game mark on June 9th but:

 

The 2021 Brewers are 18-11 against teams above .500.

 

So, I’d say they’re doing alright.

[FVBrewerFan]

They haven't had their best hitters healthy at the same time for any significant amount of time, and Yelich/Hiura have underperformed. That's it.

 

I mean, Hiura has been an epic fail. We all know that. Yelich hasn't been awful, just needs power to return. If that happens, and/or Cain can contribute more than we expect, this will actually be a good offense by the end of the year.

 

If not, they'll still be ok. They are not as reliant on the 3 run HR. They take walks, even steal a few bases. Yea, it's been ugly but they've already improved as the year has gone on.

[wibadgers23]

They scored some runs at Coors but other than that, it doesn’t feel like the offense is improving to me. They are currently making the Dbacks starting rotation look like the ‘98 Braves.

[sveumrules]

They scored some runs at Coors but other than that, it doesn’t feel like the offense is improving to me. They are currently making the Dbacks starting rotation look like the ‘98 Braves.

 

From Adames first game on May 22nd through the last game vs Cincy on June 16th before heading to Coors the Brewers scored 108 runs in 24 games, or 4.50 runs per game.

 

Over the 44 games before the trade they were averaging 3.66 runs per game.

 

It might not feel like it, but the improvement has been substantial over the last month, enough to raise our seasonal runs per game a third of a run to 3.99 per game coming into tonight.

[sveumrules]

Runs per game now up to 4.09 (20th, Mets are last at 3.54) heading into the Cubs series & coming up on the half way point of the season.

 

Brewers position players batting average of .222 is only second to last with the Mariners at .216. Their wRC+ of 93 is closer to average than the worst mark in baseball (Rockies @ 85).

 

Of course, it's been a tale of two offenses this year. The one that posted 3.66 runs per game with a position player wRC+ of 87 over 44 games before the Adames trade & the one that has posted 4.65 runs per game with a position player wRC+ of 100 (& an MLB best 24-10 record) in the 34 games since.

 

This isn't the optimism thread, those are just the numbers.

[PeaveyFury]

Thanks for the additional information and update. I do think it's worth noting the earlier point that this thread only seems to get bumped otherwise when they're in a dry spell, but it's ignored when the team is winning as designed.

[brewcrewdue80]

Can we also remember the last 10games were vs 2 teams a combined 51games under .500. We had a good share of come from behind offense vs these 2 teams RPs. Still struggled for majority of those SPs.

[PeaveyFury]

Can we also remember the last 10games were vs 2 teams a combined 51games under .500. We had a good share of come from behind offense vs these 2 teams RPs. Still struggled for majority of those SPs.

 

Not an unfair point. But those wins don't count any less come October....

[brewcrewdue80]

Can we also remember the last 10games were vs 2 teams a combined 51games under .500. We had a good share of come from behind offense vs these 2 teams RPs. Still struggled for majority of those SPs.

 

Do these wins count less come October?

 

Subject isnt about wins but Brewers offense. Many HRs vs bullpens on garbage teams late in games. How's the offense vs better pitching and bullpens coming up going to fare?

[sveumrules]

The Brewers went 11-3 vs ARI/COL this year so they account for 15% of those 51 games by themselves.

 

Sure, we've been in the soft spot of the schedule, but they've been doing exactly what they need to do by stacking wins & hitting exponentially better with a 13% improvement in wRC+ & adding a whole run per game

 

Brewers are currently 14-6 against teams above .500 vs 31-27 against everyone else so, they've actually played better against the good teams so far this year & this recent post-trade stretch of beating up on the mediocre/bad teams (22-8) has also been an improvement over the beginning of the season when the Brewers went 9-19 against mediocre/bad teams pre-Adames trade.

[PeaveyFury]

The Brewers went 11-3 vs ARI/COL this year so they account for 15% of those 51 games by themselves.

 

Sure, we've been in the soft spot of the schedule, but they've been doing exactly what they need to do by stacking wins & hitting exponentially better with a 13% improvement in wRC+ & adding a whole run per game

 

Brewers are currently 14-6 against teams above .500 vs 31-27 against everyone else so, they've actually played better against the good teams so far this year & this recent post-trade stretch of beating up on the mediocre/bad teams (22-8) has also been an improvement over the beginning of the season when the Brewers went 9-19 against mediocre/bad teams pre-Adames trade.

 

Yeah, their combined record of 8-3 vs. LA and SD shouldn't be overlooked at all, since those are two consensus playoff teams. Add in 6-3 vs. the Cubs, and you're at 14-6 vs. three legit teams.

[sveumrules]

Will the Brewers runs per game after 162 be closer to the 3.66 they posted over the first 44 games or the 4.52 mark they've been rocking in the 27 games since Willy got here?

 

Seems like a pretty easy call to me.

 

After pouring on 14 runs last night, the Brewers seasonal runs per game went from 4.09 (20th) to 4.22 (18th), so it took all of eight games for our seasonal mark to close that gap.

 

Brewers now at 25-10 post trade scoring 4.91 runs per games with a position player wRC+ of 104 in the Adames era.

[monty57]

After pouring on 14 runs last night, the Brewers seasonal runs per game went from 4.09 (20th) to 4.22 (18th), so it took all of eight games for our seasonal mark to close that gap.

 

In other words, it's a long season, so baseball fans shouldn't overreact to small samples.

 

We're almost to the halfway point of the season. Our pitching and defense have done pretty well, and our offense is right around league average in runs scored, leading us to a four game lead in our division.

 

We've had good stretches and we've had bad stretches. That's baseball.

[KeithStone53151]

I was looking at Brewers numbers over the last 15 days. The foreign substance crackdown started roughly 15 days ago so I was interested to see that timeframe. The Brewers have 8 relative regulars that are hitting over 260 since then. Wong, Hiura, Adames, Urias, Garcia, Yelich, Taylor, and Peterson. Taylor and Peterson are kinda meh, not exactly regulars...but both are actually over 300 in the last 15 days. Notably absent from this list is Narvaez, and I'm just not that concerned about his bat considering his season so far. The Brewers are also middle of the pack in most general hitting stats as a team over the last 15 days, which if our pitching remains as is...that's plenty good especially considering all our injury issues.

[MrTPlush]

If our offense is seeing a notable improvement due to lack of sticky stuff, it is possible our pitching regresses to match though. So far it really hasn't from our Big 3...but two weeks is a comically small sample size in baseball terms.

 

You also have to consider the time of year. Summer heats up, offense heats up. Early season slumps are usually gone by now. It is hard to say how much impact the rule enforcement will have on hitting/pitching.

[KeithStone53151]

If our offense is seeing a notable improvement due to lack of sticky stuff, it is possible our pitching regresses to match though. So far it really hasn't from our Big 3...but two weeks is a comically small sample size in baseball terms.

 

You also have to consider the time of year. Summer heats up, offense heats up. Early season slumps are usually gone by now. It is hard to say how much impact the rule enforcement will have on hitting/pitching.

 

That's fair. I made a point to compare general team stats to other teams over that span as well. Whether it relates to sticky stuff or not, we are hitting much better over the last 15 days in comparison to the rest of the league than we were the first couple months of the year.

 

15 days is a very small sample, we'll see how that continues going forward. Hopefully the start of a trend.