Brewers' Offense

[brewmann04]

The offense wasting some of best starting pitching. It really stinks hope they find their way out of this soon.

[JohnBriggs12]

Burnes - 6.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K

Peralta - 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K

Woodruff - 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Burnes - 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

 

That's 4 out of 7 games this year where our starters have given up 1 hit and we're only 2-2 in those games.

 

As good as they are, those guys aren't going to continue putting up numbers like that but it's not all on the offense. They are short 1 1/2 arms in the pen. Williams wasn't ready to start the year and could use a couple of non stress situations to get his groove. They really could use a lefty other than Hader and Suter who's strictly a middle reliever. Perdomo or Hardy or both. Rasmussen? I'd send him down and have him transition back to starter. Boxberger's role figures to expand. Not sure why Counsel doesn't try Lindblom in short relief with the many untested guys he's had to call on.

[JohnBriggs12]

The troubling thing is that for Hiura and Urias in particular, it's a continuation of last year's struggles and neither has a long track record of major league success. Bradley has been the guy who looks nothing like the guy I expected. I know he's not a great hitter, but he's having one bad AB after another and he's batting in the middle of the lineup often with men on base and doing nothing. I don't know how a major league hitter can look so fooled by a curveball from Adam Wainwright who throws more than any pitcher in baseball.

[djoctagone]

Brewer's offense

i blame president's day.

[umphrey]

We have now sunk to dead last in the MLB for key team offense rankings such as WRC+ and WAR by the way

[Warning Track Power]

Some stats for us to digest:

 

Brewers NL Ranks (15 teams)

AVG: .172 (13th)

OBP: .243 (14th)

SLG: .267 (15th)

OPS: .510 (15th)

OPS+: 45 (15th)

Ks: 81 (1st)

BB: 17 (13th)* technically should be 14th as Washington has 11 but has only played 3 games

 

Overall, absolutely terrible one week into the season.

[KeithStone53151]

I was looking at statcast data for our offensive players, both Garcia and Cain have been extremely unlucky so far. Both guys have over 50% hard hit rate yet have averages of 182 and 188 respectively. Both have reasonable k rates as well. If they continue as they are going, I would expect both to be fine statistically by end of April. Hiura and Urias were both slightly unlucky as well, but statcast had very low XBA for both guys due to the high k rate. Obviously they both need to improve their contact. Yelich has actually been slightly lucky according to statcast, which is a bit scary considering his stat line is very mediocre for a $30m/y player.

 

I think we'll be ok offensively if Garcia/Cain luck starts to average out and Yelich gets going(which I think is inevitable)...but here's hoping Hiura/Urias figure it out a bit.

 

I'm sure Hiura has a few more weeks of rope left before Vogelbach starts getting majority starts. I think Hiura's issue is in the mechanics of his swing, seems like he's looping under everything. I wonder a bit if he became a bit obsessed with launch angle over the off season and it led to him missing under the ball way more.

[OldHeidelberg]

Only a week in and I am already feeling like we could really use Braun in the lineup 4 times a week...

[SoCalBrewfan]

With the apostrophe, 'Brewer's offense' sounds like an old-timey euphemism for unpleasant after affects of too much of Milwaukee's finest.

 

"Ruth was out of the lineup, with what one source called a case of the Brewer's offense. The Bambino was spotted in the wee hours tippling at a public house..."

 

It's accurate to say that it's too early to tell about this offense, but also reasonable to have concerns after the also-small sample of 2020. This never looked like a top 5 offense, and the projections suggesting middle of the road relied on some of the guys who played poorly last year regressing to their career norms. There's not a lot of room for error if one or more of the guys that _should_ hit turn out not to.

[Warning Track Power]

With the apostrophe, 'Brewer's offense' sounds like an old-timey euphemism for unpleasant after affects of too much of Milwaukee's finest.

 

"Ruth was out of the lineup, with what one source called a case of the Brewer's offense. The Bambino was spotted in the wee hours tippling at a public house..."

 

It's accurate to say that it's too early to tell about this offense, but also reasonable to have concerns after the also-small sample of 2020. This never looked like a top 5 offense, and the projections suggesting middle of the road relied on some of the guys who played poorly last year regressing to their career norms. There's not a lot of room for error if one or more of the guys that _should_ hit turn out not to.

And if they do not return to career norms, then there is something else going on here. If most of your guys are underachieving their career norms and have well-established track records in the cases of Yelich, Garcia, JBJ, Wong, then there is obviously an approach issue for the Brewers coaching staff. I just don't think there is any other explanation. Yelich goes from a .290 hitter in Miami, to Barry Bonds in 2018-2019, to Khris Davis in 2020? That makes no sense.

[josh]

I, too, wish that the Brewers had an elite offense to go with their strong rotation, bullpen, and defense.

[trwi7]

well-established track records in the cases of Yelich, Garcia, JBJ, Wong, then there is obviously an approach issue for the Brewers coaching staff. I just don't think there is any other explanation. Yelich goes from a .290 hitter in Miami, to Barry Bonds in 2018-2019, to Khris Davis in 2020? That makes no sense.

 

Garcia OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020

 

89

89

138

95

113

 

Wong OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020

 

93

84

109

97

108

 

JBJ OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020

 

119

118

89

92

90

 

Even Yelich is more like the hitter he was in Miami now that the ball instead of his first two years here and nobody in their wildest dreams expected Yelich to do what he did in his first two years here. Let's not act like we have a bunch of guys with great or even good track records of offensive production.

[PeaveyFury]

Let's not act like we have a bunch of guys with great or even good track records of offensive production.

 

I continue to be puzzled by the repeated attempts to use OPS+ to measure the offensive productivity of up-the-middle players, as it's truly a horrible metric in that regard.

 

Garcia, I'll give you....

[Warning Track Power]

well-established track records in the cases of Yelich, Garcia, JBJ, Wong, then there is obviously an approach issue for the Brewers coaching staff. I just don't think there is any other explanation. Yelich goes from a .290 hitter in Miami, to Barry Bonds in 2018-2019, to Khris Davis in 2020? That makes no sense.

 

Garcia OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020

 

89

89

138

95

113

 

Wong OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020

 

93

84

109

97

108

 

JBJ OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020

 

119

118

89

92

90

 

Even Yelich is more like the hitter he was in Miami now that the ball instead of his first two years here and nobody in their wildest dreams expected Yelich to do what he did in his first two years here. Let's not act like we have a bunch of guys with great or even good track records of offensive production.

If you want to use OPS+ for the previous five years, the five-year average for Garcia is 104.8, Wong is 98.2 and JBJ is 101.6. Yelich, even if he is the player he was in his 5-year career in Miami, is 120. Couple that with Narvaez 4 years prior to joining Milwaukee is 106.7.

 

If the 2021 Brewers could get 98.2 OPS from #1 (Wong) in the order, 120 from #3 (Yelich), 104.8 from #4 (Garcia), 101.6 from #5 (Bradley) and 106.7 from #6 (Narvaez), and couple that with a top of the rotation with Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta and a backend of the bullpen with Hader and Williams, I think we are looking at a Division championship team. Heck, if you offered me those OPS right now for all those players, I would jump at the offer.

[timpep]

Let's not act like we have a bunch of guys with great or even good track records of offensive production.

 

I continue to be puzzled by the repeated attempts to use OPS+ to measure the offensive productivity of up-the-middle players, as it's truly a horrible metric in that regard.

 

Garcia, I'll give you....

 

What's a better metric?

[PeaveyFury]

Let's not act like we have a bunch of guys with great or even good track records of offensive production.

 

I continue to be puzzled by the repeated attempts to use OPS+ to measure the offensive productivity of up-the-middle players, as it's truly a horrible metric in that regard.

 

Garcia, I'll give you....

 

What's a better metric?

 

Well, WAR inherently adjusts for position.

[xisxisxis]

OPS+ by position (based on 2001-2010 MLB data):

 

P (-5)

C (87)

1B (116)

2B (93)

3B (101)

SS (89)

LF (110)

CF (98)

RF (110)

DH (105)

PH (72)

 

Nothing wrong with using OPS+ as long as you understand the variation by position.

[PeaveyFury]

Nothing wrong with using OPS+ as long as you understand the variation by position.

 

Thanks for re-emphasizing what I stated above more clearly. Though more current variance numbers would be helpful as well.

[xisxisxis]

When discussing offense, ONLY, I personally prefer OPS+ as WAR often includes offense and defense.

[PeaveyFury]

To emphasize the point based on the adjustments given above, which again are a bit dated, Wong is an above-average 2B based on the quoted 5-year history, and JBJ is as well, though his numbers have trended downward significantly. 2020 saw it jump again, but it was fairly excluded from the initial data. Garcia is below average, but he has trended the other way, with two of his last three years above average.

 

Looking at straight, unadjusted data provides an inaccurate assessment.

[xisxisxis]

To emphasize the point based on the adjustments given above, which again are a bit dated, ...............

Actually because OPS+ is adjusted there isn't a lot of difference over time. Ignoring pitchers, the numbers going back to the 1950's are within 1-5% for most positions with the biggest outlier 2B who are about 8% different between 1950's and 2000's. So you really could take any slice of OPS+ data as there really isn't a big difference by position over time.

[timpep]

I guess I don't understand how position matters when you're talking about the offense as a whole. I don't care who produces the runs. WAR seems like it would matter if you're comparing overall player performance but seems less useful than ops or ops+ when looking at overall run production.

[PeaveyFury]

I guess I don't understand how position matters when you're talking about the offense as a whole. I don't care who produces the runs. WAR seems like it would matter if you're comparing overall player performance but seems less useful than ops or ops+ when looking at overall run production.

 

The original poster wasn't talking about the offense as a whole, he was talking about three specific players.

[adambr2]

I guess I don't understand how position matters when you're talking about the offense as a whole. I don't care who produces the runs. WAR seems like it would matter if you're comparing overall player performance but seems less useful than ops or ops+ when looking at overall run production.

 

It just helps give perspective on a player's offensive performance. It doesn't matter once the offense is assembled where the runs come from, but different positions obviously have different offensive expectations.

 

A 100 OPS + from Daniel Vogelbach would merely be serviceable, a 100 OPS+ from Luis Urias looks a lot different.

[timpep]

I guess I don't understand how position matters when you're talking about the offense as a whole. I don't care who produces the runs. WAR seems like it would matter if you're comparing overall player performance but seems less useful than ops or ops+ when looking at overall run production.

 

It just helps give perspective on a player's offensive performance. It doesn't matter once the offense is assembled where the runs come from, but different positions obviously have different offensive expectations.

 

A 100 OPS + from Daniel Vogelbach would merely be serviceable, a 100 OPS+ from Luis Urias looks a lot different.

 

Sorry if it seems like I didn't understand this, I'm bad at getting my ideas across I guess.