Brewers' Offense

[PeaveyFury]

You said yourself previously that it's not a GMs fault if Jackie Bradley Jr. comes here and suddenly hits below his career average. I'm not sure what the job of a GM is if not to judge hitters based not on what they've already done, but by what they will do in the future. Anyone can evaluate based on the past. If a GM can't be blamed for signings that clearly don't work out the way he had hoped, what is there that they can be held accountable for?

 

It's not just 'hitting below career averages', it's coming here and cratering. If it happens with one player, it's perfectly fair to assume that you missed something. When it happens with 7-8 players, that's a gigantic problem, and indicative of a larger issue. My point all along has been that the 'larger issue' has to either be that the Brewers' talent evaluators SUDDENLY got real bad at evaluating talent, or that something the coaching staff is doing isn't working. Again, as I've stated all along, the latter feels far more obvious, unless you truly believe that Stearns and the F.O. suddenly got terrible at their jobs.

[sveumrules]

I don't care if I sound like a broken record but we have gotten practically nothing through the draft and international markets when it comes to position players and thats why we are forced to overpay the likes of Garcia and Bradley.

 

No position player we could have drafted in the 2020 or 2019 first rounds have played in MLB yet.

 

The only position player we could have drafted in the 2018 first round to play in MLB so far is Nico Hoerner. One guy.

 

The only position players drafted after Hiura in the 2017 first round are Jo Adell (-1.5 WAR), Evan White (-0.4 WAR) & Brent Rooker (-0.6 WAR), all of whom have been worse than Keston (0.9 WAR).

 

That brings us back to 2016, where yes, the Ray & Erceg picks looks like flat out whiffs but we still have Feliciano in the pipeline, ready to maybe make an impact five years later, because that is how long prospects typically take to develop.

 

The idea that we could have a lineup half full of home grown hitters if Stearns & company had only drafted better is demonstrably false.

 

Since 2010 the Brewers have drafted 2 position players total that currently have at least 1 bWAR. Mitch Hanniger and Trent Grisham. It's not all on Stearns obviously since he's only been around for part of that time, but it's demonstrably true that they've gotten pretty much zero help offensively from the last decade of drafts.

In 2009 they did draft Khris Davis, but like the other two 1+ bWAR guys he didn't get his WAR in Milwaukee.

 

Edit - I think I missed Garrett Cooper, we traded him for Tyler Webb.

 

Right. Stearns & company have had to augment the Major League roster with veteran hitters because the cupboard was mostly bare when they arrived & there hasn't been enough time for three out of their five draft classes to make an MLB impact as of yet.

[adambr2]

You said yourself previously that it's not a GMs fault if Jackie Bradley Jr. comes here and suddenly hits below his career average. I'm not sure what the job of a GM is if not to judge hitters based not on what they've already done, but by what they will do in the future. Anyone can evaluate based on the past. If a GM can't be blamed for signings that clearly don't work out the way he had hoped, what is there that they can be held accountable for?

 

It's not just 'hitting below career averages', it's coming here and cratering. If it happens with one player, it's perfectly fair to assume that you missed something. When it happens with 7-8 players, that's a gigantic problem, and indicative of a larger issue. My point all along has been that the 'larger issue' has to either be that the Brewers' talent evaluators SUDDENLY got real bad at evaluating talent, or that something the coaching staff is doing isn't working. Again, as I've stated all along, the latter feels far more obvious, unless you truly believe that Stearns and the F.O. suddenly got terrible at their jobs.

 

I mean there are numerous, obvious examples of bad signings that didn't work out here and went on to either Asia or performing poorly elsewhere. I don't even know how it can be debated that Stearns made some bad moves trying to patch together a lineup in 2020, overpaid almost every single one of them and whiffed on all of them besides Gyorko.

 

Yes, I think Stearns and the FO have done a bad job recently. It doesn't mean I think they have always done a bad job or that they always will. All of those things can be true. Is it really that illogical that Stearns and the F.O. did a good job earlier in their tenure and did a bad job the last couple years? Things and circumstances change. Sometimes the methods you used to do are no longer effective. 10 years ago Ted Thompson could have walked through Green Bay and had most of the city bowing to him. 5 years ago he was widely considered to be a poor GM and well past his time.

 

Even Doug Melvin brought out different perspectives from fans at different times in his tenure. In the mid to late 2000s I think he was widely respected. By 2015 I think most Brewer faithful were ready to move on. I'm not saying we should move on from Stearns, but I don't know why there would be an assumption that because he did a really good job at one time, the players working out now must not be his fault. I think there is probably blame to go around, and again, I'm fine with replacing Haines, but to me, recognizing that there is shared blame for our poor roster is far more logical than assuming that Haines is just so terrible at his job that everything he touches just craters.

[PeaveyFury]

. 10 years ago Ted Thompson could have walked through Green Bay and had most of the city bowing to him. 5 years ago he was widely considered to be a poor GM and well past his time.

 

Unless you're implying that David Stearns has dementia, this isn't the best comparison.

[adambr2]

. 10 years ago Ted Thompson could have walked through Green Bay and had most of the city bowing to him. 5 years ago he was widely considered to be a poor GM and well past his time.

 

Unless you're implying that David Stearns has dementia, this isn't the best comparison.

 

Ok, I also brought up Melvin. I mean come on, you know what point I'm trying to make. Theo Epstein? It is plenty possible for GMs to go from extremely successful to much less so.

[xisxisxis]

It's not just 'hitting below career averages', it's coming here and cratering. If it happens with one player, it's perfectly fair to assume that you missed something. When it happens with 7-8 players, that's a gigantic problem, and indicative of a larger issue. My point all along has been that the 'larger issue' has to either be that the Brewers' talent evaluators SUDDENLY got real bad at evaluating talent, or that something the coaching staff is doing isn't working. Again, as I've stated all along, the latter feels far more obvious, unless you truly believe that Stearns and the F.O. suddenly got terrible at their jobs.

Why does it have to be either? I think it's a some of both. I really wonder how good the information the batters are getting about pitchers like their pitches, tendencies, etc. JBJ is the best example of a hitter who is pretty much new to most of the National League Pitchers and sucking abysmally (Interleague doesn't acclimate you that well, especially when Boston's interleague competition is very different from the Brewers). Has he suddenly become unable to hit or is he getting really HORRIBLE advise about pitchers he's never/rarely seen. The thing that strikes me about the Brewers is the huge number of times they look at strike 3 or even lay off a really hit-able pitch as if they didn't expect it to be there. Players do a huge amount of guessing what type of pitch and where it's going before it even leaves the pitchers hand and when they are fooled or not expecting something and didn't pick up the pitch well they end up looking at the pitch or swinging with little chance of making contact. That points to some clear issues with advance scouting and getting the pitchers MO correct.

 

To trwi's point about the age/quality of the recent signees, while that isn't a talent evaluation failure per se, it's a failure to account for the likelihood that those players are close to severely declining. That is still an error on talent evaluation and the whole Urias/Grisham trade says that there is indeed some really poor talent evaluation going on in Brewerville. Is that "sudden" or just regressing to the mean after a lot of good decisions early in Stearns' tenure is impossible to say now.

[Jopal78]

Smoak, Sogard and Holt were all in their 30s when they signed. Would it be a shock if they couldn't hit anymore?

 

Collectively, all at once? And coupled with others that performed below expectations after arriving? What are the odds of that?

 

Again, isn't the more likely/logical explanation that something about the Brewers' approach/strategy isn't working right?

 

Where pro ball players careers literally live and die on year to year numbers, how many major leaguers are going to change the way they play because of a coach? Probably next to zero. They’re most likely going to live and die playing the game the way that got them to the majors in the first place.

 

Coaches are hired to be fired, and they have zero impact unless there is a player willing to listen in the first place.

[trwi7]

It might just be time to face facts that Stearns doesn't evaluate offensive talent especially well.

 

Susac was part of the Will Smith trade and we thought at minimum we would be getting a backup catcher as he was a league average hitter in his age 24-25 seasons with the Giants. Instead we got a 10 OPS+ spread over 3 years and 57 plate appearances.

 

We thought we might be getting a starting catcher in Jacob Nottingham in the Khris Davis trade and Stearns has DFA'd him twice.

 

He traded Jean Segura and Segura immediately became a good hitter.

 

Remember Jett Bandy? I didn't until I just looked up Stearns' transaction history.

 

He non-tendered Jonathan Schoop after trading for him because he was so bad.

 

He traded Aguilar for Jake Faria.

 

We obviously know about Urias/Grisham and the old and mediocre guys he's signed the last couple years.

 

There have obviously been some hits but there are a lot of bad misses that you can't have when your farm system isn't giving you anything.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Justin Smoak has previously had 3 other seasons where he had an OPS under .700, and another season with a .705 OPS. Him putting up a .642 OPS shouldn't be considered all that weird, and something to automatically be blamed on a hitting coach.

 

Brock Holt is being judged on 30 at bats, and that's such a ridiculously small sample size that no meaningful data should even be attempted to be taken from it.

 

Eric Sogard well.. just sucks.

[SeaBass]

It might just be time to face facts that Stearns doesn't evaluate offensive talent especially well.

I mean, possibly he doesn't but isn't it also obvious that, with a few exceptions, he seems to be dumpster diving trying to find value in players that can't demand high salaries? Signing Mookie Betts isn't a matter of evaluating talent it's trying to get him at the best price possible.

 

JBJ is struggling hard right now but even his normal numbers aren't awe inspiring and I do feel that he was partially targeted at the suggestion of the owner after they failed to sign Justin Turner, a guy that would not have people accusing him of not evaluating offensive talent especially well had they been successful.

 

He's shopping in the bargain bin, it stands to reason that along with lower salaries there's a higher risk these signings don't work out as well as if they took their chances on more expensive and established hitters.

 

I don't think that excuses his failures either, clearly it's a strategy and if the strategy doesn't work then he has to swallow the blame. If this is basically year two of failing at the strategy then it's time to adjust the strategy. They seemed to tweak it going into this season to place more value on defense, what's the next tweak going to look like?

[adambr2]

Who are all these great position player acquisitions that Stearns has had that has given him this mastermind reputation that is so good that people refuse to believe he can be at fault for poor hitting talent now?

 

Shaw? Sure, I can buy it, at least the first time. Cain? Meh, for a year anyway. Narvaez? I guess if you only want to count this year and throw out last. Yelich? Of course. Anybody else? I see one absolute homerun, one or two other wins and then a lot of meh to bad. Looks like a lot more perception than reality to me. Even every position player prospect he's ever acquired in big deals has has limited success at best and been pure junk at worst.

 

Go right down the line -- Phillips, Santana, Brinson, Cordell, Urias, Susac, Dubon... almost exclusively junk.

[jerichoholicninja]

Who are all these great position player acquisitions that Stearns has had that has given him this mastermind reputation that is so good that people refuse to believe he can be at fault for poor hitting talent now?

 

Derail ahead warning, but you got me thinking who exactly has Stearns acquired of all the great pitching we've had. Of the current team, Freddy Peralta is it. Woodruff, Houser, and Hader were all part of the organization when he was hired. Burnes was part of his first draft but i don't know how much you can credit Stearns for the pick. He's certainly made some short term acquisitions that have worked out well with Miley, Lyles, Pomeranz but the core of the pitching was already in the organization before he was got here.

[adambr2]

Who are all these great position player acquisitions that Stearns has had that has given him this mastermind reputation that is so good that people refuse to believe he can be at fault for poor hitting talent now?

 

Derail ahead warning, but you got me thinking who exactly has Stearns acquired of all the great pitching we've had. Of the current team, Freddy Peralta is it. Woodruff, Houser, and Hader were all part of the organization when he was hired. Burnes was part of his first draft but i don't know how much you can credit Stearns for the pick. He's certainly made some short term acquisitions that have worked out well with Miley, Lyles, Pomeranz but the core of the pitching was already in the organization before he was got here.

 

I was just talking about position players in this instance, but yeah, Freddy was a homerun for sure.

[Jopal78]

 

I was just talking about position players in this instance, but yeah, Freddy was a homerun for sure.

 

Certainly an argument can be made Stearns has tinkered too much but let’s be at least honest: Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Ji-Man Choi, Jonathan Villar, Moustakas, Grandal (short timers but he brought them in and they were terrific), Brad Miller, Stephen Vogt (good player couldn’t stay healthy), Manny Pina, Granderson was great as a bench player, Kolten Wong, and the aforementioned Cain, Yelich.

 

He drafted and developed a TOR arm and traded for another. I don’t think Stearns is some genius but he’s done enough to demonstrate he knows what he’s doing. Every GM makes mistakes at times. For example, it was Doug Melvin who included a player as a throw in on the Carlos Lee deal, who has played 17 years in the majors and has 425+ homeruns

[adambr2]

 

I was just talking about position players in this instance, but yeah, Freddy was a homerun for sure.

 

Certainly an argument can be made Stearns has tinkered too much but let’s be at least honest: Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Ji-Man Choi, Jonathan Villar, Moustakas, Grandal (short timers but he brought them in and they were terrific), Brad Miller, Stephen Vogt (good player couldn’t stay healthy), Manny Pina, Granderson was great as a bench player, Kolten Wong, and the aforementioned Cain, Yelich.

 

He drafted and developed a TOR arm and traded for another. I don’t think Stearns is some genius but he’s done enough to demonstrate he knows what he’s doing. Every GM makes mistakes at times. For example, it was Doug Melvin who included a player as a throw in on the Carlos Lee deal, who has played 17 years in the majors and has 425+ homeruns

 

You're using Brad Miller as an example? Who OPSed 75 points under his career average here and then got DFAed and then was very successful elsewhere? Granderson? Choi? Pina has done perfectly fine here, but a backup catcher with 5.5 career WAR is your example of Stearns being a cut above other GMs? Some of these guys were good to be sure, like Grandal, but almost every name you mentioned was signed, did exactly what they have done their entire career here, and moved on.

 

I was asking about great position player signings that demonstrate the prowess for evaluating talent that some people are speaking of in regard to Stearns, not a list of position players that were acquired during the David Stearns era.

 

Also, the Carlos Lee/Nelson Cruz trade was a bad one for sure, but it should be noted that Cruz was subsequently DFAed and passed on by every single team after that before breaking out.

Edited May 21, 2021 by adambr2

[RollieTime]

Stearns just hasn’t targeted guys to actually improve the offense and that’s on him. People can say dumpster diving all they want, but you can find good quality players cheaply and Stearns has allocated resources to the wrong players. There are plenty of players signed to small contracts that go on to have very good seasons. I was clamoring for Jose Iglesias before 2019 and he went on to hit .288 for something like $5 million or under. Wilmer Flores got $3 million to hit .268 with some pop for the Giants. Asdrubal Cabrera was discussed and he’s hitting .289 this season and making under $3 million.

 

Some of us here wanted Renato Nunez who would certainly be an improvement over what we’ve been trotting out in 2021. This is just some of the guys I was pushing for recently.

 

I know people will say it doesn’t mean we could have gotten them. But if you pay them a little more than the next team, they will most likely come play for you. Especially when they are making these small contracts.

 

The opportunities have been there and Stearns has picked the wrong guys. The coaching staff certainly isn’t bringing the best out of the players given, but Stearns has been striking out himself.

[RollieTime]

 

I was just talking about position players in this instance, but yeah, Freddy was a homerun for sure.

 

Certainly an argument can be made Stearns has tinkered too much but let’s be at least honest: Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Ji-Man Choi, Jonathan Villar, Moustakas, Grandal (short timers but he brought them in and they were terrific), Brad Miller, Stephen Vogt (good player couldn’t stay healthy), Manny Pina, Granderson was great as a bench player, Kolten Wong, and the aforementioned Cain, Yelich.

 

He drafted and developed a TOR arm and traded for another. I don’t think Stearns is some genius but he’s done enough to demonstrate he knows what he’s doing. Every GM makes mistakes at times. For example, it was Doug Melvin who included a player as a throw in on the Carlos Lee deal, who has played 17 years in the majors and has 425+ homeruns

 

He let Aguilar go for free basically, same with Choi. I guess Grandal could count, but if I knew I could have $20 million to give to one player, I could pick a good one too. Miller was a decent player before and after us, but not with us. Vogt played 45 games for us and did okay at best. Cain had one great season out of 4 so far so that’s not exactly a big win. That contract could certainly be detrimental though.

[MrTPlush]

I’m not sure why the Cain contract always seems to be praised. His first year was incredible, but does that really make up for him sucking since? Don’t tell me about his defense. Nothing makes up for a sub .700 OPS. If you want great defense and zero offense you can go find some AAAA guy to do it for under $1mil.

 

The only reason I don’t hate that contract is because of the first year. However, that’s only because our teams history is so depressing an NLCS appearance is worthy of a DVD set to remember it. Realistically, that contract is not working out when his OPS has been sub .700 for the rest of it.

[Jopal78]

 

I was asking about great position player signings that demonstrate the prowess for evaluating talent that some people are speaking of in regard to Stearns, not a list of position players that were acquired during the David Stearns era.

 

This is like trying to hit a moving target. First you have to determine if he is “a cut above”. Stearns certainly isn’t Cashman or Friedman but he’s not Bridich or Dick Williams either. Based on results he’s arguably the best GM the Brewers have had, then again that isn’t saying much.

 

Outside of Thames I don’t know if there are any signings that show his “prowess” in talent evaluation from a free agency standpoint. I don’t think there is a way to do that because teams are paying contracts based on prior performance. This if he player outplays their prior performance the GM looks like a genius, if the player underperforms the GM is in idiot, if the player meets expectations the criticism is the GM should’ve used the money to theoretically sign some else who would’ve done better.

 

Really Lorenzo Cain is the only significant multi-year deal Stearns has done. He was terrific in 2018. He was injured and had medical procedures done to his hand in 2019 but still managed to win a gold glove. 2020 he opted out after a couple nice games. So far this year his offensive numbers are down, but it’s been 40 games and his advanced metrics suggest his numbers will improve.

[brewers888]

Stearns has just not focused on offense at all and this goes with his signings as well as how we have drafted under him. We continuously sign and draft up the middle athletes most of whom don't project well with the bat. We have mostly ignored third and first base types in the draft and internationally.

 

It was not hard to see most of these free agent signings failing as most have. It doesn't take a genius to see that guys like Sogard and Smoak offer very little if any upside at all.

[brewers888]

We have failed continuously in the draft for the last ten years and that started under Melvin and has continued under Stearns. The point is often made that we haven't drafted high in years but somehow the Rays draft and develop well and they never pick in the top 10 either. Our scouting and development staff has failed big time at finding good position prospects and thats why Stearns has to dumpster dive to fill multiple positions seemingly every off season.

[MrTPlush]

Not sure he has ignored offense. Feels like most of his FA dollars have gone there over the years.

[PeaveyFury]

Not sure he has ignored offense. Feels like most of his FA dollars have gone there over the years.

 

And trades for Yelich, Moustakas, etc....

[OldSchoolSnapper]

For all the criticism of Stearns, some fair, I've barely seen it mentioned that the Brewers tried, very hard, to sign Justin Turner. There are two sides to this.

 

The Brewers can dip their toes into FA, but what you're seeing is FA being the ONLY option to build an offense, and for a club like us, that just can't happen. You just can't be barren in the minors and have to pay top dollar for bats. This is what you get.

[Jopal78]

Stearns has just not focused on offense at all and this goes with his signings as well as how we have drafted under him. We continuously sign and draft up the middle athletes most of whom don't project well with the bat. We have mostly ignored third and first base types in the draft and internationally.

 

It was not hard to see most of these free agent signings failing as most have. It doesn't take a genius to see that guys like Sogard and Smoak offer very little if any upside at all.

 

I don’t know if either of these is necessarily true. Sure, under Stearns they’ve primarily taken up the middle players with their top draft picks. However, all of these players Ray, Hiura, Turang and Mitchell were known quantities and well regarded for their offense. It can’t be laid at the GM’s feet that Ray and Hiura’s advanced college bats have been disappointing as professionals. Also, given that most draft licks are multiple years away teams don’t necessarily draft for need at the major league level. Besides an amateur player who has quality offensive skills and plays 3B is more than likely ticketed for the top of the first round.

 

You may have a point on international signings as I can’t recall many international players signed by the Brewers who made the majors, but I do know they have increased their presence internationally under Stearns.

 

As for the free agents what are you expecting? For example, Smoak and Sogard both took small money one year contracts. I don’t think there was any thought either would offer upside or they wouldn’t be on small one year deals to begin with. I would assume the expectation was they would come in and do close to what they’d always done. Both failed, such is the risk of free agency.