Brewers' Offense

[yourout]

I always judge a coach by the collective performance not by individual ones.

Do the players as a whole get better the longer there around him or do they get worse?

Do the players as a whole perform above or at or below their ability?

 

I don't see any way that Haines can be judged as a good coach right now.

[MrTPlush]

Who on this team is really underperforming?

 

JBJ

And?

 

Vogelbach just isn’t very good

Urias is unproven and has sucked his entire career

Shaw isn’t really underperforming

 

Sure looks like a bunch of guys performing near what one should expect. It’s just a bunch of terrible players. I really don’t see any shocking underperformers outside of JBJ.

[mtrebs]

Who on this team is really underperforming?

 

JBJ

And?

 

Vogelbach just isn’t very good

Urias is unproven and has sucked his entire career

Shaw isn’t really underperforming

 

Sure looks like a bunch of guys performing near what one should expect. It’s just a bunch of terrible players. I really don’t see any shocking underperformers outside of JBJ.

 

I don’t expect most MLB hitters (outside of pitchers) to bat under .220. Anyone below that is underperforming in my book. It seems like below .250 used to be a bad hitter. Wish that was still the case.

[Baldkin]

Who on this team is really underperforming?

 

JBJ

And?

 

Vogelbach just isn’t very good

Urias is unproven and has sucked his entire career

Shaw isn’t really underperforming

 

Sure looks like a bunch of guys performing near what one should expect. It’s just a bunch of terrible players. I really don’t see any shocking underperformers outside of JBJ.

 

I don’t expect most MLB hitters (outside of pitchers) to bat under .220. Anyone below that is underperforming in my book. It seems like below .250 used to be a bad hitter. Wish that was still the case.

 

MLB average BA is .236 this season. It was .252 in 2019. You need to recalibrate for the times we are in. The change in the baseball has absolutely killed offense this season.

[pacopete4]

It's May 20th and we don't have a home run from Christian Yelich. It's pretty incredible.

[monty57]

https://www.mlb.com/news/omar-narvaez-improving-with-new-batting-stance

 

This was an article from late spring training regarding Narvaez, and how Haines visited both Narvaez and Garcia this summer to work on things after both had disappointing seasons in 2020.

 

I had a thought that maybe there was a team-wide philosophy of changing players' stances/swings to create "launch angle," but this article wouldn't support that. Sounds like Haines had Narvaez stand more upright so he could see the ball better, not swing at as many pitches out of the strike zone, and make better contact. I found this while looking for a different article I remember reading where Narvaez was quoted as saying something along the lines of "last year I was trying to hit home runs, and I need to get back to just hitting the ball hard gap-to-gap."

 

In other words, I went in looking for "proof" that Haines was telling his guys to use an uppercut swing to produce more home runs, but found the opposite. Narvaez seems to have fallen into that trap on his own, and Haines travelled to his (and Garcia's) home this offseason to fix things and get him to be more of the patient, line-drive hitter he was prior to 2020.

 

Not definitive proof of anything, but it looks like Haines worked with at least two guys this summer, and they're our two best hitters so far this year after disappointing seasons last year.

[MrTPlush]

Yeah, I think the Narvaez/Garcia visits were mentioned before...though I don't think the article was posted. So thanks for that.

 

Basically we have direct examples of how Haines helped a few hitters in the offseason and they became our two best hitters. On the flip side we have a lot of struggling hitters and there is no proof that Haines changed anything about them. Yet everyone is suppose to believe Haines is the problem and that is "the most logical/likely reason" for the poor offense.

 

A lot of players have taken it upon themselves to follow the launch angle craze only for the ball to, it appears, be deadened this year. Yelich bragged about this being a huge reason for his huge breakout seasons, but such a dramatic change probably doesn't work for all hitters. Especially when the ball goes from lively to dead. Wouldn't shock me if a lot of the players struggling the last few seasons, not just on the Brewers, are getting caught up in trying to be apart of the launch angle craze. Narvaez seems to have been guilty of this. I get the temptation to see if launch angle can take your game into the next stratosphere, but maybe some guys should just stay true to their success they already have.

[tmwiese55]

Stayed out of this for the most part. But just adding that besides what hitting coaches do to mechanical stuff, like has been the focus of the discussion, a key part if not the biggest part of their job these days are some of the analytical, game plan type aspects. I think we heard this mentioned a lot when Mets fired Chile Davis a few weeks ago. As many of you probably correctly point, a hitting coach probably doesn't or shouldn't mess with mechanics tooooo much, other than when someone is struggling to try and help. But this game plan and analytics aspects are a key these days. That said, with how strong the whole organization is on this type of thing, I'd be really surprised if Haines and the staff are not up to speed on it.

 

I'd also be in favor of a new hitting coach, not that I think it will make a huge huge difference. But sometimes a new voice or set of eyes can help shake things up. I'd think they give him another couple weeks at least though if not until ASB.

[Soupbone]

You can blame whomever you want. You can give credit to whomever you want. If the offense doesn't produce someone will go. Players, not likely. Counsell, not likely. Stearns, not likely. Haines, much more likely.

[Pugger]

It's May 20th and we don't have a home run from Christian Yelich. It's pretty incredible.

 

It is difficult to get anything going when you've only played in 12 of 43 games so far this season.

[Pugger]

This mess might be because of Haines but if they don't get it going pretty darn quick somebody's head is gonna roll and it may not be just him. A coach will get the axe before a player will.

[monty57]

I'd guess a lot of this has to do with injuries, but why is Counsell shifting the lineup so much? I'm not able to watch most games, so maybe this has been addressed by the announcers.

 

We only have a few players who are hitting, so now that Yelich is back, it seems pretty obvious that Wong, Yelich, Garcia, and Narvaez should be the top four guys in your order every night (with Pina taking Narvaez's spot when he's catching). The big question is Garcia, who seems to be in a different spot every night, with him hitting 6th last night. After the top four, I can understand moving guys around, but it seems that the best way to score a few runs is to bunch your productive guys together at the top of the order.

[roadcrew3]

This mess might be because of Haines but if they don't get it going pretty darn quick somebody's head is gonna roll and it may not be just him. A coach will get the axe before a player will.

 

I'm not sure if you are implying Counsell may be on the hot seat as well but if so, I completely disagree. I think his seat is as secure as any manager right now imo.

 

I've said this before that guys are underperforming no doubt, but even if this offense was going good it still would be a poor offense, that's just the reality of the players that have been assembled. I agree Haines is going to take the fall first, but after that fingers should be pointed at the front office for not giving the coaching staff much to work with.

[mtrebs]

I still think that Counsell should be on the hot seat. The Brewers refuse to make any adjustments at the plate and continue to fail to produce. Their opponents are making adjustments, bunting runners over, playing small ball, etc. Yeah, the players are the ones that need to produce, but it’s up to the coaching staff to give them direction on their approach at the plate.

 

All this being said, I think Counsell is pretty safe, at least at this point.

[trwi7]

 

Is there anything saying who actually hires the coaches between Stearns/Craig?

 

I would venture to guess.

 

So nothing definitive, then.

 

Blaming coaches gets kind of boring.

 

Perhaps, but it seems the most logical explanation here. Either you can believe that our front office, who prior to last year had proven exceptionally good at their jobs, suddenly started bringing in only talent that was on the precipice of cliffing in their careers on a wide-spread level across multiple players and positions, or the coaches working with those guys aren't helping them. Or worse, perhaps hurting them. One of those explanations seems logical, the other far less so.

 

Smoak, Sogard and Holt were all in their 30s when they signed. Would it be a shock if they couldn't hit anymore?

 

From 2017-19 JBJ hit .234/.318/.409. Sure he's probably not this bad but it's not like we were getting an offensive dynamo here and getting a below average hitter was probably just as if not more likely than getting an above average one.

 

Garcia had a two year stretch where he hit .252/.308/.374 in what should've been his prime and with the obvious outlier being one season the most you could reasonably expect is a slightly above average offensive performance and there is a history of getting below average offensive performance.

 

There's a reason these guys were available for one year deals or cheap-ish two year deals.

[roadcrew3]

There are countless data points showing why "small-ball" produces lower expected runs. Maybe I am forgetting but I don't know if we have seen one opponent this year (or the past few years for that matter) play "small-ball" and consistently bunt a guy over when they get a man on first. The days of this being a part of the game are over.

 

Aside from bunting, what adjustments have the Brewers failed to make in your eyes? How do you know they are refusing to try different approaches at the plate? I am fairly certain that as professional athletes who are not experience success, they are trying different methods or making adjustments to their swings, the issue in my eyes is they just aren't very good to begin with. No adjustment is going to make a .220 hitter start hitting .300+. If those are your expectations its probably time to reevaluate.

[PeaveyFury]

Smoak, Sogard and Holt were all in their 30s when they signed. Would it be a shock if they couldn't hit anymore?

 

Collectively, all at once? And coupled with others that performed below expectations after arriving? What are the odds of that?

 

Again, isn't the more likely/logical explanation that something about the Brewers' approach/strategy isn't working right?

[mtrebs]

There are countless data points showing why "small-ball" produces lower expected runs. Maybe I am forgetting but I don't know if we have seen one opponent this year (or the past few years for that matter) play "small-ball" and consistently bunt a guy over when they get a man on first. The days of this being a part of the game are over.

 

Aside from bunting, what adjustments have the Brewers failed to make in your eyes? How do you know they are refusing to try different approaches at the plate? I am fairly certain that as professional athletes who are not experience success, they are trying different methods or making adjustments to their swings, the issue in my eyes is they just aren't very good to begin with. No adjustment is going to make a .220 hitter start hitting .300+. If those are your expectations its probably time to reevaluate.

 

Not sure where you got the idea of turning these guys into .300 hitters. I never said anything along those lines.

 

While I can’t guarantee there aren’t any adjustments being made, by watching these guys game after game they appear to be doing the same thing… watching strikes go down the middle, swinging at high stuff out of the zone, swinging away in nearly all situations, not taking advantage of shifts by trying to hit to the gaps.

 

You can tell me that small ball produces less runs all you want. The current approach isn’t working this season and didn’t work last season. They aren’t scoring runs now. Something NEEDS to change, unless they are satisfied with their current offensive production, even if it’s short term. Desperate times call for desperate measures, even if it’s going away from the norms of the modern baseball approach. They should be doing whatever they can to get on base and move runners over.

[trwi7]

Smoak, Sogard and Holt were all in their 30s when they signed. Would it be a shock if they couldn't hit anymore?

 

Collectively, all at once? And coupled with others that performed below expectations after arriving? What are the odds of that?

 

Again, isn't the more likely/logical explanation that something about the Brewers' approach/strategy isn't working right?

 

Yes? I don't know if you noticed but Smoak had to go to Japan and Sogard and Holt are in the majors with different teams and still not hitting. Maybe dumpster diving on a bunch of old and/or mediocre hitters wasn't the best strategy. The only player I was legitimately surprised at having a bad year last year was Narvaez and he's been by far our best hitter this year with the same coaches.

[brewers888]

Smoak, Sogard and Holt were all in their 30s when they signed. Would it be a shock if they couldn't hit anymore?

 

Collectively, all at once? And coupled with others that performed below expectations after arriving? What are the odds of that?

 

Again, isn't the more likely/logical explanation that something about the Brewers' approach/strategy isn't working right?

 

How about Haines is terrible at his job and Stearns has failed the last few seasons of putting together a good lineup. I don't care if I sound like a broken record but we have gotten practically nothing through the draft and international markets when it comes to position players and thats why we are forced to overpay the likes of Garcia and Bradley.

[roadcrew3]

There are countless data points showing why "small-ball" produces lower expected runs. Maybe I am forgetting but I don't know if we have seen one opponent this year (or the past few years for that matter) play "small-ball" and consistently bunt a guy over when they get a man on first. The days of this being a part of the game are over.

 

Aside from bunting, what adjustments have the Brewers failed to make in your eyes? How do you know they are refusing to try different approaches at the plate? I am fairly certain that as professional athletes who are not experience success, they are trying different methods or making adjustments to their swings, the issue in my eyes is they just aren't very good to begin with. No adjustment is going to make a .220 hitter start hitting .300+. If those are your expectations its probably time to reevaluate.

 

Not sure where you got the idea of turning these guys into .300 hitters. I never said anything along those lines.

 

While I can’t guarantee there aren’t any adjustments being made, by watching these guys game after game they appear to be doing the same thing… watching strikes go down the middle, swinging at high stuff out of the zone, swinging away in nearly all situations, not taking advantage of shifts by trying to hit to the gaps.

 

You can tell me that small ball produces less runs all you want. The current approach isn’t working this season and didn’t work last season. They aren’t scoring runs now. Something NEEDS to change, unless they are satisfied with their current offensive production, even if it’s short term. Desperate times call for desperate measures, even if it’s going away from the norms of the modern baseball approach. They should be doing whatever they can to get on base and move runners over.

 

It's because majority of guys in this lineup just aren't good hitters to begin with. I'm not going to fire one of the top managers in the game because he couldn't take the pile of crap he was given and turn it into a formidable offense. This is an issue that falls on the front office.

[PeaveyFury]

Smoak, Sogard and Holt were all in their 30s when they signed. Would it be a shock if they couldn't hit anymore?

 

Collectively, all at once? And coupled with others that performed below expectations after arriving? What are the odds of that?

 

Again, isn't the more likely/logical explanation that something about the Brewers' approach/strategy isn't working right?

 

Yes? I don't know if you noticed but Smoak had to go to Japan and Sogard and Holt are in the majors with different teams and still not hitting.

 

Yes, I've been the moderator of a Milwaukee Brewers fan board for ~20 years, so I do tend to follow baseball.

[adambr2]

I just think the implication is that Smoak, Sogard and Holt were bad signings and bad reads by DS on how much productivity they still had left in their careers, rather than guys who fell apart via bad coaching here.

 

Again I'm fine with a closer look at the coaching staff both in Milwaukee and on the farm. I just personally think the implication that DS hasn't made numerous bad signings in the last 2 years is clearly wrong.

 

You said yourself previously that it's not a GMs fault if Jackie Bradley Jr. comes here and suddenly hits below his career average. I'm not sure what the job of a GM is if not to judge hitters based not on what they've already done, but by what they will do in the future. Anyone can evaluate based on the past. If a GM can't be blamed for signings that clearly don't work out the way he had hoped, what is there that they can be held accountable for?

[sveumrules]

I don't care if I sound like a broken record but we have gotten practically nothing through the draft and international markets when it comes to position players and thats why we are forced to overpay the likes of Garcia and Bradley.

 

No position player we could have drafted in the 2020 or 2019 first rounds have played in MLB yet.

 

The only position player we could have drafted in the 2018 first round to play in MLB so far is Nico Hoerner. One guy.

 

The only position players drafted after Hiura in the 2017 first round are Jo Adell (-1.5 WAR), Evan White (-0.4 WAR) & Brent Rooker (-0.6 WAR), all of whom have been worse than Keston (0.9 WAR).

 

That brings us back to 2016, where yes, the Ray & Erceg picks looks like flat out whiffs but we still have Feliciano in the pipeline, ready to maybe make an impact five years later, because that is how long prospects typically take to develop.

 

The idea that we could have a lineup half full of home grown hitters if Stearns & company had only drafted better is demonstrably false.

[timpep]

I don't care if I sound like a broken record but we have gotten practically nothing through the draft and international markets when it comes to position players and thats why we are forced to overpay the likes of Garcia and Bradley.

 

No position player we could have drafted in the 2020 or 2019 first rounds have played in MLB yet.

 

The only position player we could have drafted in the 2018 first round to play in MLB so far is Nico Hoerner. One guy.

 

The only position players drafted after Hiura in the 2017 first round are Jo Adell (-1.5 WAR), Evan White (-0.4 WAR) & Brent Rooker (-0.6 WAR), all of whom have been worse than Keston (0.9 WAR).

 

That brings us back to 2016, where yes, the Ray & Erceg picks looks like flat out whiffs but we still have Feliciano in the pipeline, ready to maybe make an impact five years later, because that is how long prospects typically take to develop.

 

The idea that we could have a lineup half full of home grown hitters if Stearns & company had only drafted better is demonstrably false.

 

Since 2010 the Brewers have drafted 2 position players total that currently have at least 1 bWAR. Mitch Hanniger and Trent Grisham. It's not all on Stearns obviously since he's only been around for part of that time, but it's demonstrably true that they've gotten pretty much zero help offensively from the last decade of drafts.

In 2009 they did draft Khris Davis, but like the other two 1+ bWAR guys he didn't get his WAR in Milwaukee.

 

Edit - I think I missed Garrett Cooper, we traded him for Tyler Webb.