Brewers' Offense

[wibadgers23]

After we are done shuffling through AAAA fodder, firing the hitting coach for not making crummy players have .800 OPS', and still have the same results maybe we can ask David Stearns to do a better job evaluating/adding offensive talent.

 

Sums up the current situation with this offense pretty good for me.

[adambr2]

I concur with the previous 2 posters.

 

Up until 2018, David Stearns could walk on water as far as I was concerned. The Schoop trade I thought was his first glaringly bad deal, but at the time it was just a blip on the radar to me because I understood the thinking and figured at least Pomeranz was huge for us around the same time, even if Ray Black hasn't amounted to a hill of beans.

 

Starting after the 2019 season though, it's been a lot of miss and very little hit. And some of the misses have been really, really damaging. Stearns and Arnold have done a really poor job the last 18 months or so. That's the blunt, but obvious truth.

[RollieTime]

I’m not convinced this is all on the players though. Haines is here to help players make adjustments. How many times have we had players come in and stink? Play below their career numbers? Sogard, Smoak, Shaw, Aguilar, Holt, Bradley Jr., Garcia and Narvaez possibly. Hiura possibly, Cain possibly, Yelich possibly. Guys like Shaw and Aguilar were good hitters and stunk once Haines was hired. When they went to another organization, they bounced back some. Same with Sogard multiple times. Yelich and Cain were fantastic before Haines got his hands on them and walked them through adjustments. Who’s to say he didn’t mess them up in some way? They may have kept their approaches they did from their prior organizations for their first year or two, but then Haines may have had them do something different.

 

Hiura may have been asked to make adjustments by Haines and it has been a total failure. The dude raked his whole career. And then one offseason with Haines and 2020 happened. And now it carried into 2021.

 

Narvaez and Garcia struggled horribly. Maybe they said screw it and went back to what they’ve done in the past.

 

We don’t need to write it off as the players needing to do better. Once players come here or are here for a number of years like Yelich and Cain, he certainly could have had them switch something up which has led to them struggling with the adjustment, trying to adjust back, etc.

 

It’s way too long of a track record of players have some level of success or a lengthy career of good success to just end up in a Brewers uniform and have their career worst seasons for us. It’s not just a fluke.

[monty57]

I’m not convinced this is all on the players though. Haines is here to help players make adjustments. How many times have we had players come in and stink? Play below their career numbers? Sogard, Smoak, Shaw, Aguilar, Holt, Bradley Jr., Garcia and Narvaez possibly. Hiura possibly, Cain possibly, Yelich possibly. Guys like Shaw and Aguilar were good hitters and stunk once Haines was hired. When they went to another organization, they bounced back some. Same with Sogard multiple times. Yelich and Cain were fantastic before Haines got his hands on them and walked them through adjustments. Who’s to say he didn’t mess them up in some way? They may have kept their approaches they did from their prior organizations for their first year or two, but then Haines may have had them do something different.

 

Hiura may have been asked to make adjustments by Haines and it has been a total failure. The dude raked his whole career. And then one offseason with Haines and 2020 happened. And now it carried into 2021.

 

Narvaez and Garcia struggled horribly. Maybe they said screw it and went back to what they’ve done in the past.

 

We don’t need to write it off as the players needing to do better. Once players come here or are here for a number of years like Yelich and Cain, he certainly could have had them switch something up which has led to them struggling with the adjustment, trying to adjust back, etc.

 

It’s way too long of a track record of players have some level of success or a lengthy career of good success to just end up in a Brewers uniform and have their career worst seasons for us. It’s not just a fluke.

 

It's certainly possible. The Brewers may be "leading the launch angle revolution" kind of like they had their pitchers throwing high heat before it became the norm. However, I'd think that would be an organizational philosophy, and not just the MLB hitting coach and that may be why he still has a job. He's doing what the "stat guys" think is the right thing to do.

 

I agree with Warning Track Power and Fear the Chorizo's earlier posts regarding the effects "launch angle" has had on baseball, and personally hope that the Brewers lead the charge away from that philosophy, whether or not the "dead ball" remains. No hitters are becoming more common than triples.

[tmwiese55]

A cheap option I've thought of is Renato Nunez. 1B/3B type guy who bats RH. Mostly been 1B but some 3B and corner OF here and there. Roughly was a 250/315 with 30ish HRs type guy the last two years. Is sitting in Det AAA now (I'm not aware of any injury) as seemingly no one would give him a MLB job this offseason? He got called up when someone got hurt in April for a few days.

 

Not like he's some savior or anything but good chance he's better than what they've been running out there. Really, 240/300 with power would be one of our top 2-3 hitters at this point.

[PeaveyFury]

I concur with the previous 2 posters.

 

Up until 2018, David Stearns could walk on water as far as I was concerned. The Schoop trade I thought was his first glaringly bad deal, but at the time it was just a blip on the radar to me because I understood the thinking and figured at least Pomeranz was huge for us around the same time, even if Ray Black hasn't amounted to a hill of beans.

 

Starting after the 2019 season though, it's been a lot of miss and very little hit. And some of the misses have been really, really damaging. Stearns and Arnold have done a really poor job the last 18 months or so. That's the blunt, but obvious truth.

 

Sorry, I really couldn't disagree more. The astounding number of players who have come in here and underperformed expectation/career norms, young players who haven't developed properly, etc. isn't indicative of talent evaluation, it's coaching.

[MrTPlush]

Would rather have Nunez over Vogelbach honestly. Seems like a good bet to be a better player. Could have just had him for a third of the cost in the off season.

[Warning Track Power]

Here is the issue I have with anyone coming to the Brewers, in the past few years, once they get to Milwaukee, they stink.

 

Examples of Career OPS vs. Milwaukee OPS

 

-Narvaez: Career .772, Milwaukee .738

-Garcia: Career .751, Milwaukee .696

-JBJ: Career .732, Milwaukee .506

-Vogelbach: Career .719, Milwaukee .793

-Smoak: Career .744, Milwaukee .642

-Sogard: Career .658, Milwaukee .643

-Holt: Career .715, Milwaukee .322

 

There is something not right in the water in the clubhouse. This is an issue that is becoming unique to Milwaukee. Aguilar, Holt and Sogard have all become serviceable or more since they left. The organizational approach needs some serious attention both in the clubhouse and the front office.

[PeaveyFury]

Here is the issue I have with anyone coming to the Brewers, in the past few years, once they get to Milwaukee, they stink.

 

Examples of Career OPS vs. Milwaukee OPS

 

-Narvaez: Career .772, Milwaukee .738

-Garcia: Career .751, Milwaukee .696

-JBJ: Career .732, Milwaukee .506

-Vogelbach: Career .719, Milwaukee .793

-Smoak: Career .744, Milwaukee .642

-Sogard: Career .658, Milwaukee .643

-Holt: Career .715, Milwaukee .322

 

Bingo. This sums up my point exactly.

[MrTPlush]

Saying Holt and Sogard have been serviceable since leaving is being really generous.

 

So Stearns just sucks at evaluating coaching talent. Whatever it is can someone please go wake up Stearns before our brightest core in franchise history spirals down the toilet becoming a total waste of time.

[PeaveyFury]

So Stearns just sucks at evaluating coaching talent.

 

Is there anything saying who actually hires the coaches between Stearns/Craig? Usually managers have a lot of say in that, if not absolute say.

[sveumrules]

Here is the issue I have with anyone coming to the Brewers, in the past few years, once they get to Milwaukee, they stink.

 

Examples of Career OPS vs. Milwaukee OPS

 

-Narvaez: Career .772, Milwaukee .738

-Garcia: Career .751, Milwaukee .696

-JBJ: Career .732, Milwaukee .506

-Vogelbach: Career .719, Milwaukee .793

-Smoak: Career .744, Milwaukee .642

-Sogard: Career .658, Milwaukee .643

-Holt: Career .715, Milwaukee .322

 

There is something not right in the water in the clubhouse. This is an issue that is becoming unique to Milwaukee. Aguilar, Holt and Sogard have all become serviceable or more since they left. The organizational approach needs some serious attention both in the clubhouse and the front office.

 

There are a couple issues with this methodology. One would be that raw OPS does not account for differences in league wide offense from year to year or for home stadium. The other would be the massive sample size discrepancies.

 

Narvaez for instance had a 111 OPS+ over 1216 PAs before Milwaukee & has a 101 OPS+ over 220 PAs with the Brewers. So far he has been about 10% worse, but the sample is also less than 20% in size & still evolving with every plate appearance he takes.

 

Avisail posted a 105 OPS+ in 3,027 PAs before Milwaukee compared to an 89 OPS+ in 356 PAs with the Brewers. Sure, he has been about 16% worse so far, but the sample is even smaller, only about 12%.

 

JBJ is even more extreme in terms of both OPS+ & sample size divergence with a 94 OPS+ in 3281 PAs before Milwaukee compared to a 39 OPS+ in 141 PAs so far with the Brewers. His PAs with the Brewers are about 4% of his pre-Milwaukee total.

 

What do you believe is more representative of each player's true talent level? Their results in over 7,000 plate appearances before arriving with the Brewers or their results in about 700 plate appearances with the Brewers?

 

We've already seen both Narvaez & Garcia experience positive regression following 2020 & I feel pretty confident JBJ will end the season with an OPS+ over 39.

 

Where's Wong & Gyorko? Their PAs with the Brewers (127 & 135) are comparable to Smoak (126), Sogard (128) & Holt (36 PAs).

[MrTPlush]

So Stearns just sucks at evaluating coaching talent.

 

Is there anything saying who actually hires the coaches between Stearns/Craig? Usually managers have a lot of say in that, if not absolute say.

 

Stearns/Counsell have always come off as side-kicks in a lot of ways...quite a bit of communication between them. I would venture to guess those coaching hires are largely 50/50.

 

Blaming coaches gets kind of boring. We blame the pitching coach for players and now they are pitching well. Now we blame the hitting coach because the hitting sucks. Then we blame Counsell for keeping a crummy coach. The next step is to blame the GM/President for keeping a crummy manager. Or do we have to blame the assistant GM first? It is pretty hard to blame a coach and have solid proof why, I mean how do you really prove a players struggles are the coach and not the player? I get it, you can flip it around for the same argument. However, who is usually the problem, the coach or player? Probably the player.

 

We have the same hitting coach as last year. Last year Narvaez/Garcia sucked, this year they are playing well. So does Haines get credit for making them suck and then making them good? Did fairies sprinkle magical dust in the offseason? I get it, it is somewhat suspect when we bring in players and they decide to be absolutely horrible. I just have a hard time thinking Haines is histories worst coach and can instantly destroy a player like that.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Is there anything saying who actually hires the coaches between Stearns/Craig?

 

I would venture to guess.

 

So nothing definitive, then.

 

Blaming coaches gets kind of boring.

 

Perhaps, but it seems the most logical explanation here. Either you can believe that our front office, who prior to last year had proven exceptionally good at their jobs, suddenly started bringing in only talent that was on the precipice of cliffing in their careers on a wide-spread level across multiple players and positions, or the coaches working with those guys aren't helping them. Or worse, perhaps hurting them. One of those explanations seems logical, the other far less so.

[Oxy]

This is a leaguewide issue - the launch angle adjustment players have made in effort to increase slugging combined with the increase in pitch velocity and frequency of high fastballs means the pendulum has swayed well into the pitchers' advantage. Pitchers have adjusted to that launch angle change with velo and with location (high in the zone) - it's on the hitters to adjust their approach, and that means sacrificing slugging for contact, plain and simple. Pitchers got away from throwing high in the zone a few decades ago because those were the pitches that wound up in the seats - particularly during the steroid era. Since they worked heavily down in the zone, hitters adjusted launch angle to do more consistent damage with lower pitches...pitchers then saw the enormous holes in these swings and are now exploiting them - moving the mound back a foot or lowering the mound or any of the other changes being tossed about wouldn't have near the positive impact on hitting that hitters simply adjusting their swings back to where they've traditionally been for most of modern baseball history would bring.

 

This is all true--and it was really brought on by enforcing the "true" strike zone 10-15 years ago, when pitchers got an extra 3 inches or so above the belt and umps were stricter on the outside corner. In the 90s, the belt was basically the top of the zone, but pitchers were allowed to work off the plate a bit if that is where the catcher lined up.

 

I think a lot of the K problems would be solved by going back to the belt as the top of the zone. Just think of how many of Hader's strikeouts have come on called borderline pitches at the top of the zone or pitches that were definitely high that guys chased cuz they had to. Just moving it down would totally change the way Hader would pitch, as now those called high strikes are super close to the danger danger zone where balls end up in the seats.

[sveumrules]

Blaming coaches gets kind of boring.

 

Perhaps, but it seems the most logical explanation here. Either you can believe that our front office, who prior to last year had proven exceptionally good at their jobs, suddenly started bringing in only talent that was on the precipice of cliffing in their careers on a wide-spread level across multiple players and positions, or the coaches working with those guys aren't helping them. Or worse, perhaps hurting them. One of those explanations seems logical, the other far less so.

 

Or you could believe that the 100-ish games that have been played so far between 2020/21 are still too small of a sample to draw any definitive conclusions from.

[MrTPlush]

 

Is there anything saying who actually hires the coaches between Stearns/Craig?

 

I would venture to guess.

 

So nothing definitive, then.

 

Blaming coaches gets kind of boring.

 

Perhaps, but it seems the most logical explanation here. Either you can believe that our front office, who prior to last year had proven exceptionally good at their jobs, suddenly started bringing in only talent that was on the precipice of cliffing in their careers on a wide-spread level across multiple players and positions, or the coaches working with those guys aren't helping them. Or worse, perhaps hurting them. One of those explanations seems logical, the other far less so.

 

Most of this talent: Holt, Sogard, JBJ, Smoak, Morrison etc. are on the wrong side of 30. So it wouldn't exactly be shocking if they didn't play well. Especially considering nearly all of these guys the last few years were not that strong of hitters prior.

 

Brock Holt has played for another two teams now and still sucks. Eric Sogard still sucks with the Cubs. Shouldn't these guys be rebounding with Haines not destroying them? People want to talk about their numbers pre-Brewers and then as Brewers. What about post-Brewers? Neither of those guys are flourishing these days and still way under their pre-Brewers numbers.

 

You aren't going to get consistent reliable numbers all the time when you are picking up fringe offensive players. Guys like Vogelbach/Garcia/JBJ/Sogard/Holt all had ugly years well before they became Brewers. Some of those guys had better track records of being terrible with a bat compared to actually hitting well.

[WV Brew]

Narvaez: 29, Garcia 29, Bradley 31, Vogelback 28, Smoak 34 (33 with Brewers), Sogard 34, Holt 32. They are past their primes. Nobody should expect them to get their career norms. The younger guys are doing about what you'd expect. Heck, they are even getting a bonus this year from Narvaez. This isn't the steroids era anymore.

[sveumrules]

Narvaez: 29, Garcia 29, Bradley 31, Vogelback 28, Smoak 34 (33 with Brewers), Sogard 34, Holt 32. They are past their primes. Nobody should expect them to get their career norms. The younger guys are doing about what you'd expect. Heck, they are even getting a bonus this year from Narvaez. This isn't the steroids era anymore.

 

Narvaez career wRC+: 112

Narvaez ZiPS wRC+: 114

 

Avisail career wRC+: 102

Avisail ZiPS wRC+: 106

 

JBJ career wRC+: 91

JBJ ZiPS wRC+: 91

 

Vogelbach career wRC+: 101

Vogelbach ZiPS wRC+: 118

 

ZiPS rest of season projections believe the four players you listed who are still with the team are capable of hitting at or above their career norms over the remainder of the season.

[adambr2]

I concur with the previous 2 posters.

 

Up until 2018, David Stearns could walk on water as far as I was concerned. The Schoop trade I thought was his first glaringly bad deal, but at the time it was just a blip on the radar to me because I understood the thinking and figured at least Pomeranz was huge for us around the same time, even if Ray Black hasn't amounted to a hill of beans.

 

Starting after the 2019 season though, it's been a lot of miss and very little hit. And some of the misses have been really, really damaging. Stearns and Arnold have done a really poor job the last 18 months or so. That's the blunt, but obvious truth.

 

Sorry, I really couldn't disagree more. The astounding number of players who have come in here and underperformed expectation/career norms, young players who haven't developed properly, etc. isn't indicative of talent evaluation, it's coaching.

 

Sorry, if you're not willing to concede that Stearns has had a poor go of it the last year and a half or so, I just don't think you're looking at things as an impartial observer.

 

The Urias trade as of today is somewhere between bad and disaster. It obviously could end up in a better spot or a worse spot.

 

The Yelich extension, at the very least, is looking like something Stearns probably wishes he had a mulligan on, with the potential to be a disaster.

 

Almost every minor move made since the end of '19 has been somewhere between neutral and bad, with a few exceptions. Sogard was bad. Smoak was bad. JBJ has been very bad. These guys are longtime veterans, I don't buy that after years in the league they are getting here and our coaches are just messing them up.

 

Moose, Gandalf, Thames, Hiura, Braun, these guys all hit just fine in '19 under the same coaches.

 

I don't doubt that there are some things that need to be looked at deeper within our system from a developmental standpoint, but to hold Stearns blameless I think is missing part of the equation. Just because he did a great job in the past does not necessarily mean he will always do a great job, nor does a player's career stats indicate he will always perform at that level. Stearns had some wonderful years and the last couple have been very poor, both of these things can be true.

 

I have no problem with firing Andy Haines, in fact it should probably happen, but I have a hard time believing that it's his fault that Jackie Bradley Jr. suddenly can't hit.

[PeaveyFury]

I just don't think you're looking at things as an impartial observer.

 

Kind of an odd statement, and I'm not sure what you're implying.

 

In the end, the team's results rest on Stearns and CC. This year's results are still very much up in the air. As others have noted, it's worth seeing if it's a small sample size problem or indicative of a larger issue.

 

Right now, I maintain that it's astoundingly unlikely that 8-10 players were acquired and suddenly performed as if they hadn't hit a baseball before. Hyperbole, of course, but still. Small sample is very, very possible, which means no one is to blame, but that's not what the 'fans' want to hear. If it's indicative of a larger problem, my point is that it is far more likely that the approach that the Brewers are preaching offensively is the issue rather than a sudden inability to evaluate talent by a front office that has shown immense skill in that area.

 

The Yelich extension, at the very least, is looking like something Stearns probably wishes he had a mulligan on, with the potential to be a disaster.

 

We're certain Stearns is the one that needs the mulligan?

[adambr2]

I just don't think you're looking at things as an impartial observer.

 

Kind of an odd statement, and I'm not sure what you're implying.

 

In the end, the team's results rest on Stearns and CC. This year's results are still very much up in the air. As others have noted, it's worth seeing if it's a small sample size problem or indicative of a larger issue.

 

Right now, I maintain that it's astoundingly unlikely that 8-10 players were acquired and suddenly performed as if they hadn't hit a baseball before. Hyperbole, of course, but still. Small sample is very, very possible, which means no one is to blame, but that's not what the 'fans' want to hear. If it's indicative of a larger problem, my point is that it is far more likely that the approach that the Brewers are preaching offensively is the issue rather than a sudden inability to evaluate talent by a front office that has shown immense skill in that area.

 

The Yelich extension, at the very least, is looking like something Stearns probably wishes he had a mulligan on, with the potential to be a disaster.

 

We're certain Stearns is the one that needs the mulligan?

 

I was just implying that perhaps being a big fan of a player/manager etc makes it tougher to see their warts. I've been guilty of that myself.

 

I'm not sure what you were implying with your last question. Are you suggesting that perhaps Mark A was all-in on Yelich with David not necessarily in favor. I would think that they would be all on the same page on something this big, but I would concede it's all within the realm of possibility as to who really wanted to do what. I've long suspected that Mark A. tends to get a little too involved in personnel decisions ever since the Jeff Suppan signing.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Kolten Wong is performing to his career offensive norms and has provided stellar 2B defense...who signed him this last offseason?

 

If Hiura doesn't fall on his face to start this season and get demoted, and Yelich have to go on the IL right after getting going to start the season most of the angst about a lack of corner IF and OF offensive production goes away. It was always about how those two middle of the order bats performed - one tanked and the other couldn't stay on the field, and we're seeing the results.

 

If Stearns is to blame at least in part for the offensive woes to date, it's that he's brought in a collection of offensive players that by and large aren't talented enough to hit their way out of a funk, and collectively they aren't deep enough to overcome one, let alone two key losses in their lineup due to a bad, extended slump (Hiura) and injury (Yelich).

[Warning Track Power]

I just don't think you're looking at things as an impartial observer.

 

Kind of an odd statement, and I'm not sure what you're implying.

 

In the end, the team's results rest on Stearns and CC. This year's results are still very much up in the air. As others have noted, it's worth seeing if it's a small sample size problem or indicative of a larger issue.

 

Right now, I maintain that it's astoundingly unlikely that 8-10 players were acquired and suddenly performed as if they hadn't hit a baseball before. Hyperbole, of course, but still. Small sample is very, very possible, which means no one is to blame, but that's not what the 'fans' want to hear. If it's indicative of a larger problem, my point is that it is far more likely that the approach that the Brewers are preaching offensively is the issue rather than a sudden inability to evaluate talent by a front office that has shown immense skill in that area.

I have been a very strong supporter of both Craig Counsell and David Stearns since they arrived in the mid-2010s. However, for those of you that are also Packer fans, I am starting to get a similar sense to what happened with the Packers as it relates to the Brewers with Mike McCarthy (Counsell), Ted Thompson (Stearns) and Dom Capers (Haines).

 

Counsell, who was once so innovative, has appeared to grow similarly stale, ala McCarthy, in the past few years as the Brewers no longer mix and match pitchers, have set Williams and Hader as the 8th and 9th inning only guys, and no longer uses the hit and run or steals to press the issue. McCarthy never adjusted to the McVay-type offenses and the game appeared to have passed him by.

 

The larger issue I am seeing is with Stearns and Haines, similar to Thompson and Capers. Every year between 2012-2019, the Packers drafted consensus 1st round defensive talent. The picks were not "reaches" based on pre-draft rankings and Capers literally did nothing with their talent to make them close to a top 10 D except put square pegs in round holes (Nick Perry and Datone Jones come to mind). Is that a miscalculation in talent by ALL NFL evaluators, Thompson included, or was this an indictment of Capers coaching abilities? I tend to think it was the coaching.

 

Similarly, whereas Stearns may have not given Haines 1st round picks, he has given him established, average offensive baseball players (JBJ, Narvaez, Garcia, Cain) who should at worst be able to give the Brewers a league-average offense when combined with a superstar (Yelich) and one that was budding (Hiura). Instead, they are amongst the worst and don't have answers in the past 100 games (60 in 2020 and 40 in 2021). So is it Stearns or Haines fault? I tend to think it is coaching.

 

Like I said, I see a lot of parallels between the two situations and I think it is really about faulting one or the other but not both. In the case of the Packers, they should have been at worst a top 12 D with the amount of 1st round talent provided. With the Brewers, they should be the 14-18th best O in the sport when you look at the talent and track record of the players in the everyday lineup, but they are one of the worst.

[adambr2]

Kolten Wong is performing to his career offensive norms and has provided stellar 2B defense...who signed him this last offseason?

 

If Hiura doesn't fall on his face to start this season and get demoted, and Yelich have to go on the IL right after getting going to start the season most of the angst about a lack of corner IF and OF offensive production goes away. It was always about how those two middle of the order bats performed - one tanked and the other couldn't stay on the field, and we're seeing the results.

 

If Stearns is to blame at least in part for the offensive woes to date, it's that he's brought in a collection of offensive players that by and large aren't talented enough to hit their way out of a funk, and collectively they aren't deep enough to overcome one, let alone two key losses in their lineup due to a bad, extended slump (Hiura) and injury (Yelich).

 

I mean no one really has been criticizing the Wong signing. Giving a GM a big pat on the back because one of his signings has performed exactly as expected, not more and not less, seems like a pretty big reach.