Brewers' Offense

[Warning Track Power]

And again if he opts out then the small return that the Cardinals gave up (and a similar package from the Brewers) would still be well worth one year of production from Arenado.

This 100%. The prospect of renting Trevor Story could approach the cost to acquire Nolan Arenado given the disparity in control/supposed albatross of a contract. Now imagine a healthy and return to form lineup that is inclusive of Yelich-Arenado in the 3-4 holes. I will assume the Brewers would have still signed Wong, not signed JBJ and may or may not have signed Shaw. Regardless, the potential to have had a lineup that included: Wong-Cain-Yelich-Arenado-Narvaez-Hiura-Garcia-Urias, while not significantly impacting the already depleted minor league system, would look a lot better than what they are running out there on May 18, 2021.

[adambr2]

I also disagree with Jopal that Arenado is going to opt out. He's on the record saying he doesn't plan to opt out. He's still playing on a long-term, lucrative deal. He's set. I think he'd rather play it out, at least until the next opt out, rather than risk the uncertainty of free agency. His situation is fine.

 

Barring an MVP season I bet he stays put.

[monty57]

And again if he opts out then the small return that the Cardinals gave up (and a similar package from the Brewers) would still be well worth one year of production from Arenado.

This 100%. The prospect of renting Trevor Story could approach the cost to acquire Nolan Arenado given the disparity in control/supposed albatross of a contract. Now imagine a healthy and return to form lineup that is inclusive of Yelich-Arenado in the 3-4 holes. I will assume the Brewers would have still signed Wong, not signed JBJ and may or may not have signed Shaw. Regardless, the potential to have had a lineup that included: Wong-Cain-Yelich-Arenado-Narvaez-Hiura-Garcia-Urias, while not significantly impacting the already depleted minor league system, would look a lot better than what they are running out there on May 18, 2021.

 

Of course our lineup would look better with Arenado. No one would ever doubt that, as he's one of the best players in the game. There are, however, a lot of questions about assuming that Arenado coming to Milwaukee was an option. Whatever someone thinks of Stearns and/or Attanasio, you'd have to think that they're smart enough to realize that Arenado would be an upgrade for the team, and their pursuit of Turner shows that they were willing to "pay up" to acquire an upgrade.

 

With that in mind, I have to believe that the Brewers at least asked about the availability of Arenado from the Rockies. I don't know what happened to cause the Rockies to send him to St Louis instead of another team, but I would be shocked if the Brewers didn't put some effort into acquiring Arenado. It could have been that the Rockies wouldn't put in enough money so the Brewers didn't have room in the budget, it could have been that Arenado refused to play in Milwaukee, it could have been that the Rockies liked St Louis' prospects better. It could have been a lot of things, but I think it's going way out on a limb to assume that Arenado could easily have been a Brewer and Stearns/Attanasio just didn't want him, or didn't want to give up scraps to get him.

[Jopal78]

I also disagree with Jopal that Arenado is going to opt out. He's on the record saying he doesn't plan to opt out. He's still playing on a long-term, lucrative deal. He's set. I think he'd rather play it out, at least until the next opt out, rather than risk the uncertainty of free agency. His situation is fine.

 

Barring an MVP season I bet he stays put.

 

But he's not on record saying he won't opt out. Any athlete who forces a trade always throws around platitudes like "This is where I want to be" or "I plan to stay here a long time". Arenado made the same type of comments to the St. Louis pool reporters in February of 2021.

 

The reality is, after 2021 Arenado has 6 yrs/179 million million left on his contract for an AAV of 29.8 million per year. He can already argue he is younger and a better overall player than Rendon who is making an AAV of 35 million per year. If Arenado and his agent think there is a market there for him, he'll opt out simple as that. After all pro-athletes also always say, "it's not just a game, its also a business".

[adambr2]

I also disagree with Jopal that Arenado is going to opt out. He's on the record saying he doesn't plan to opt out. He's still playing on a long-term, lucrative deal. He's set. I think he'd rather play it out, at least until the next opt out, rather than risk the uncertainty of free agency. His situation is fine.

 

Barring an MVP season I bet he stays put.

 

But he's not on record saying he won't opt out. Any athlete who forces a trade always throws around platitudes like "This is where I want to be" or "I plan to stay here a long time". Arenado made the same type of comments to the St. Louis pool reporters in February of 2021.

 

The reality is, after 2021 Arenado has 6 yrs/179 million million left on his contract for an AAV of 29.8 million per year. He can already argue he is younger and a better overall player than Rendon who is making an AAV of 35 million per year. If Arenado and his agent think there is a market there for him, he'll opt out simple as that. After all pro-athletes also always say, "it's not just a game, its also a business".

 

Arenado is younger than Rendon right now but will be about a year and a half older than Rendon was when Rendon signed that contract if he opts out and goes to free agency.

 

Markets also change year to year for a plethora of reasons; he can argue whatever he wants when comparing himself to Rendon but the market will tell him what he's worth right now. Pretty risky endeavor if that's the road he wants to go down. Athletes and their agents have overestimated their market in free agency before and ended up very wrong.

[trwi7]

But he's not on record saying he won't opt out.

 

I mean, it's about as close as you can come to saying it without explicitly saying it.

 

“There’s a very high chance I will not be opting out. Very, very high. I didn’t come here to do that,” Arenado said on Barstool Sports’ “Starting 9” podcast.

 

“I plan on being a Cardinal for the rest of the way out,” Arenado said. “That’s my goal.”

 

https://www.ibtimes.com/nolan-arenado-plans-stay-cardinals-opting-out-contract-unlikely-3147184#:~:text=The%20Colorado%20Rockies%20gave%20Arenado,will%20not%20be%20opting%20out.

 

Arenado isn't even the one who pushed for the opt out in his contract, Bridich is.

[Warning Track Power]

Of course our lineup would look better with Arenado. No one would ever doubt that, as he's one of the best players in the game. There are, however, a lot of questions about assuming that Arenado coming to Milwaukee was an option. Whatever someone thinks of Stearns and/or Attanasio, you'd have to think that they're smart enough to realize that Arenado would be an upgrade for the team, and their pursuit of Turner shows that they were willing to "pay up" to acquire an upgrade.

 

With that in mind, I have to believe that the Brewers at least asked about the availability of Arenado from the Rockies. I don't know what happened to cause the Rockies to send him to St Louis instead of another team, but I would be shocked if the Brewers didn't put some effort into acquiring Arenado. It could have been that the Rockies wouldn't put in enough money so the Brewers didn't have room in the budget, it could have been that Arenado refused to play in Milwaukee, it could have been that the Rockies liked St Louis' prospects better. It could have been a lot of things, but I think it's going way out on a limb to assume that Arenado could easily have been a Brewer and Stearns/Attanasio just didn't want him, or didn't want to give up scraps to get him.

I do not disagree with anything you are saying in your post. In fact, I believe the Brewers likely made a push for Arenado. My only point is that I would have done whatever is possible to beat the Cardinal's offer, especially given the organizational hole that is 3B. Now the Rockies may have just said they liked whatever the Cardinals were offering better than anything the Brewers could offer. Nothing you can do there but I doubt the Brewers couldn't have swayed their opinion by offering a package including one of Turang, Small or Ashby or even including Mitchell, who I believe individually is better than any prospect the Rockies received.

 

Now if the Brewers are saving their pennies to extend Burnes and/or Woodruff then I completely understand not dealing for Arenado.

[PeaveyFury]

I agree with the notion that if you could have been relatively certain that Arenado WOULD opt out, trading for him as essentially a one-year rental vs. a seven-year commitment would have made a deal much more attractive to the Brewers.

[MrTPlush]

I haven't seen it mentioned, Nolan Arenado had a full no trade clause...I believe.

 

So this entire discussion is likely pretty meaningless. I highly doubt Arenado would have left the Rockies for the traditionless-championshipless Milwaukee Brewers. If Arenado is picking between the Brewers and Cardinals...10 times out of 10 he is not coming here. Everyone is assuming Arenado would have had no choice other than to go the highest bidder....reality is he could pretty much pick wherever he wanted to go.

[damuelle]

I accepted that the first two months of the season would be difficult based on the schedule. And this has obviously been compounded with all the injuries, so I should be happy that we're treading water at .500 (21-21 record).

 

However, I don't understand how we could pair our Pitching and Defense with an offense that K's 10 times per game, about the highest rate in the National League. With this high-quality starting pitching, I'd think we'd just want to have a contact-heavy offense - a bunch of light hitters who you can count on to reliably keep the ball in play, putting the pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense anytime we happen to get a runner in scoring position.

 

I can't imagine that an offense like that would even need to cost much. That said, the NL offense with the lowest rate of K's/game (Padres at 7.9) just struck out 11 times yesterday, so perhaps my theory is easier to imagine than to implement.

[JET15]

With this high-quality starting pitching, I'd think we'd just want to have a contact-heavy offense - a bunch of light hitters who you can count on to reliably keep the ball in play, putting the pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense anytime we happen to get a runner in scoring position.

 

"Brandon Woodruff has the lowest run support per nine innings of MLB's 65 qualifying pitchers: 1.58 RS/9."

 

[MrTPlush]

With this high-quality starting pitching, I'd think we'd just want to have a contact-heavy offense - a bunch of light hitters who you can count on to reliably keep the ball in play, putting the pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense anytime we happen to get a runner in scoring position.

 

"Brandon Woodruff has the lowest run support per nine innings of MLB's 65 qualifying pitchers: 1.58 RS/9."

 

 

I totally forgot to check the box score this morning. 7.2 innings and all he got in return was three errors? Dude should have thrown a complete game loss. WOOOOOOW

[homer]

at least we aren't rooting for the Mariners. Team BA is below . 200 after getting no hit for a second time this season.

[jonescm128]

at least we aren't rooting for the Mariners. Team BA is below . 200 after getting no hit for a second time this season.

 

Their hitting is worse and their pitching is worse. Yet they are only one game behind us...

 

Baseball.

[brewcrewdue80]

at least we aren't rooting for the Mariners. Team BA is below . 200 after getting no hit for a second time this season.

 

Their hitting is worse and their pitching is worse. Yet they are only one game behind us...

 

Baseball.

Haniger has as many HRs as Yelich has hits-12. So somebody is at least carrying some offense in games for Sea. At 60 games if this team is still in the teens on NL offense its past time to rid of Haines. Last season's 60game small sample size would have been repeated and 120games isnt as much of a small sample. Putting it simply, I'm upset, the Brewers group that owns the team along with Mark A., they must be flipping boiling mad at the utter awfulness of the offense a huge amount of money is paying for.

[monty57]

Haniger has as many HRs as Yelich has hits-12. So somebody is at least carrying some offense in games for Sea. At 60 games if this team is still in the teens on NL offense its past time to rid of Haines. Last season's 60game small sample size would have been repeated and 120games isnt as much of a small sample. Putting it simply, I'm upset, the Brewers group that owns the team along with Mark A., they must be flipping boiling mad at the utter awfulness of the offense a huge amount of money is paying for.

 

But I bet Yelich outhits Trout over the next 6-8 weeks (the expected timeframe that Trout will be on the IL).

 

We're all frustrated, but it's probably not fair to slam someone for getting injured while playing baseball. Hopefully the Brewers can get & stay healthy and we get a better read on what we're working with. If Yelich hits like he should (All-Star level), then this offense very quickly looks much different.

 

It is a head-scratcher that Haines still has a job. Coaching jobs aren't very stable in the best of times, and the Brewer offense has been down long enough that Haines should probably be worried about his job.

[adambr2]

Haniger has as many HRs as Yelich has hits-12. So somebody is at least carrying some offense in games for Sea. At 60 games if this team is still in the teens on NL offense its past time to rid of Haines. Last season's 60game small sample size would have been repeated and 120games isnt as much of a small sample. Putting it simply, I'm upset, the Brewers group that owns the team along with Mark A., they must be flipping boiling mad at the utter awfulness of the offense a huge amount of money is paying for.

 

But I bet Yelich outhits Trout over the next 6-8 weeks (the expected timeframe that Trout will be on the IL).

 

We're all frustrated, but it's probably not fair to slam someone for getting injured while playing baseball. Hopefully the Brewers can get & stay healthy and we get a better read on what we're working with. If Yelich hits like he should (All-Star level), then this offense very quickly looks much different.

 

It is a head-scratcher that Haines still has a job. Coaching jobs aren't very stable in the best of times, and the Brewer offense has been down long enough that Haines should probably be worried about his job.

 

There's definitely a "good ol boy" system that seems to exist within the Brewer organization. Those who are part of the club tend to have much longer leashes, those who do not seem to be expendable. Andy Haines is a good ol boy. So was Eddie Sedar.

[jonescm128]

Haniger has as many HRs as Yelich has hits-12. So somebody is at least carrying some offense in games for Sea. At 60 games if this team is still in the teens on NL offense its past time to rid of Haines. Last season's 60game small sample size would have been repeated and 120games isnt as much of a small sample. Putting it simply, I'm upset, the Brewers group that owns the team along with Mark A., they must be flipping boiling mad at the utter awfulness of the offense a huge amount of money is paying for.

 

But I bet Yelich outhits Trout over the next 6-8 weeks (the expected timeframe that Trout will be on the IL).

 

We're all frustrated, but it's probably not fair to slam someone for getting injured while playing baseball. Hopefully the Brewers can get & stay healthy and we get a better read on what we're working with. If Yelich hits like he should (All-Star level), then this offense very quickly looks much different.

 

It is a head-scratcher that Haines still has a job. Coaching jobs aren't very stable in the best of times, and the Brewer offense has been down long enough that Haines should probably be worried about his job.

 

There's definitely a "good ol boy" system that seems to exist within the Brewer organization. Those who are part of the club tend to have much longer leashes, those who do not seem to be expendable. Andy Haines is a good ol boy. So was Eddie Sedar.

 

The "Fire Andy Haines" argument is so lazy to me. He was here in 2018 and 2019 and we had a good offense then. He isn't the one swinging the bats. Its because we have bad hitters, simple as that. But you can't get rid of the players (for the most part) so firing Haines is really the only thing that can be done at this point and that isn't going to do anything long term for the state of this offense. It would merely be a shake up move.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Haniger has as many HRs as Yelich has hits-12. So somebody is at least carrying some offense in games for Sea. At 60 games if this team is still in the teens on NL offense its past time to rid of Haines. Last season's 60game small sample size would have been repeated and 120games isnt as much of a small sample. Putting it simply, I'm upset, the Brewers group that owns the team along with Mark A., they must be flipping boiling mad at the utter awfulness of the offense a huge amount of money is paying for.

 

But I bet Yelich outhits Trout over the next 6-8 weeks (the expected timeframe that Trout will be on the IL).

 

We're all frustrated, but it's probably not fair to slam someone for getting injured while playing baseball. Hopefully the Brewers can get & stay healthy and we get a better read on what we're working with. If Yelich hits like he should (All-Star level), then this offense very quickly looks much different.

 

It is a head-scratcher that Haines still has a job. Coaching jobs aren't very stable in the best of times, and the Brewer offense has been down long enough that Haines should probably be worried about his job.

 

There's definitely a "good ol boy" system that seems to exist within the Brewer organization. Those who are part of the club tend to have much longer leashes, those who do not seem to be expendable. Andy Haines is a good ol boy. So was Eddie Sedar.

 

I don't know about that. I'd say Counsell has always been hesitant to drop any coaches from his staff. They've let some be allowed to pursue other opportunities, but I always viewed that as more of a professional courtesy. And unfortunately, we are not privy to the inner workings and workplace dynamic among the coaching staff.

[adambr2]

I didn't mean it as a major critique of the organization. I think it exists to some degree in almost any work environment.

[monty57]

The "Fire Andy Haines" argument is so lazy to me. He was here in 2018 and 2019 and we had a good offense then. He isn't the one swinging the bats. Its because we have bad hitters, simple as that. But you can't get rid of the players (for the most part) so firing Haines is really the only thing that can be done at this point and that isn't going to do anything long term for the state of this offense. It would merely be a shake up move.

 

I agree. They've swapped out some players, and if that doesn't work, it'll be time for the hitting coach to be on the chopping block. This offense was built under the assumption that guys like Yelich, Hiura, Cain, Narvaez, Garcia, etc. would put up good numbers. They haven't consistently done that, so our offense hasn't "clicked."

 

It's possible that Haines is really bad at his job, and is giving them bad advice, but it's really the professional hitters' job to hit. They've "shaken things up" by sending Hiura to AAA, which is a pretty big move, so a "shake up" of firing Haines is probably next.

 

But, we all knew that if Yelich, Hiura, Garcia, and Narvaez didn't bounce back from last year's numbers, the offense wouldn't be very good. It just seemed likely that some if not all of these guys should have bounce back seasons. So far, Garcia and Narvaez have, but Yelich has been hurt and Hiura has been abyssmal.

[Warning Track Power]

The "Fire Andy Haines" argument is so lazy to me. He was here in 2018 and 2019 and we had a good offense then. He isn't the one swinging the bats. Its because we have bad hitters, simple as that. But you can't get rid of the players (for the most part) so firing Haines is really the only thing that can be done at this point and that isn't going to do anything long term for the state of this offense. It would merely be a shake up move.

I get that offense is down in baseball but I will continue to harp on that being the result of the launch angle revolution. Narvaez took one of the biggest uppercut swings I have ever seen in the 8th and missed. The next pitch he flattened the swing and got a nice single. Watching Cain and Wong also use the uppercut swing, with a deadened ball, just seems like they are wasting PAs for lazy fly balls.

 

If guys like me can see that the approach needs to be adjusted to stop uppercutting everything and get back to the basics of baseball that we all learned as 7-10 year olds, then I think guys like Haines should be able to help players adjust. It's not old school to hit the ball where it is pitched and for faster players, like Cain and Wong, put the ball on the ground and use their speed. If the players aren't listening or making the adjustments necessary at the plate, then a new voice needs to be put into place.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is a leaguewide issue - the launch angle adjustment players have made in effort to increase slugging combined with the increase in pitch velocity and frequency of high fastballs means the pendulum has swayed well into the pitchers' advantage. Pitchers have adjusted to that launch angle change with velo and with location (high in the zone) - it's on the hitters to adjust their approach, and that means sacrificing slugging for contact, plain and simple. Pitchers got away from throwing high in the zone a few decades ago because those were the pitches that wound up in the seats - particularly during the steroid era. Since they worked heavily down in the zone, hitters adjusted launch angle to do more consistent damage with lower pitches...pitchers then saw the enormous holes in these swings and are now exploiting them - moving the mound back a foot or lowering the mound or any of the other changes being tossed about wouldn't have near the positive impact on hitting that hitters simply adjusting their swings back to where they've traditionally been for most of modern baseball history would bring.

 

Deadening the ball, even slightly, turns those 2nd-5th row HRs into warning track flyouts for players that simply shouldn't be considering themselves sluggers - we are seeing alot of those (in addition to K's) with this Brewers roster.

 

'Changing the approach' means more than trying to beat shifts by hitting away from positioned players - to me the bigger change hitters leaguewide need to make is leveling their swing paths out so the bat stays in the hitting area longer. That will reduce HRs, but also reduce Ks dramatically. And frankly, shifting works so well because the uppercut launch angle limits where batted balls in fair territory in the field of play go. Someone pointed to an increase in foul balls recently - it's because the length of time a max effort uppercut swing has in the actual hitting zone where the ball is struck well enough to result in a fair ball is miniscule, if hitters are off by just a fraction of an inch in terms of swing path or timing the ball just gets fouled off.

Edited May 19, 2021 by Fear The Chorizo

[Underachiever]

The "Fire Andy Haines" argument is so lazy to me. He was here in 2018 and 2019 and we had a good offense then. He isn't the one swinging the bats. Its because we have bad hitters, simple as that. But you can't get rid of the players (for the most part) so firing Haines is really the only thing that can be done at this point and that isn't going to do anything long term for the state of this offense. It would merely be a shake up move.

Quibble: Haines became the hitting coach in November of 2018.

 

Call it lazy, but I need an outward show that tells me as a fan that changes are happening. Can't, as you said, get rid of the players. Brewers fired their manager at 23-24 in 1982. May have seemed like a shake up, but can't argue with the results. I'm okay with trying it again.

[MrTPlush]

After we are done shuffling through AAAA fodder, firing the hitting coach for not making crummy players have .800 OPS', and still have the same results maybe we can ask David Stearns to do a better job evaluating/adding offensive talent.