Brewers' Offense

[brewers888]

Kolton Wong is not a good hitter, he is an average hitter. He is like the definition of average. Again, nothing wrong with that considering his defense. As an overall player he is pretty good.

 

But one our Top 3 or 4 hitters? That’s rough. Not saying he was a bad signing, it was a good signing. However, what is bad is Stearns didn’t do enough to improve the offense to the point Wong is not a top hitter on our team.

 

This is exactly what I was trying to say.

[brewers888]

Kolton Wong is not a good hitter, he is an average hitter. He is like the definition of average. Again, nothing wrong with that considering his defense. As an overall player he is pretty good.

 

But one our Top 3 or 4 hitters? That’s rough. Not saying he was a bad signing, it was a good signing. However, what is bad is Stearns didn’t do enough to improve the offense to the point Wong is not a top hitter on our team.

 

If I had to guess...I would think they thought Yelich, Hiura, and Narvaez, etc would hit closer to the norm. This would make the defense of Wong and JBJ more valuable. Now, seeing one injured and the other fall off the face of the earth to go along with the older players looking old, well that probably wasn't expected.

 

Edit: Also, it isn't like they didn't try to improve the offense. They did, but it just didnt pan out(Turner).

 

I get that they tried to sign Turner but we all know that was extremely unlikely to happen so if that was the only avenue to improve the offense it was a terrible plan.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Wong was signed for his defense and his bat is good enough for the position but he is not a good hitter.

 

I.... what?

 

Wong is a perfectly adequate hitter for the position he plays but his bat is nothing special so his value is tied up in his defense which is excellent.

 

I appreciate the clarification, but I really don't understand what your plan was for the offseason that would have been better. Who should they have signed, exactly?

 

I think they identified that there weren't any viable options left for them budget-wise after Turner signed, and the saw an opportunity to improve the team by signing a guy like Wong who has an acceptable bat and provided team value through good defense. The upgrade from Hiura's defense to Wong's will probably add 2-4 WAR this year. That's the definition of a good signing.

[brewmann04]

This Offense needs a big boost but don't see it happening soon.

[brewmann04]

Getting a bit curious if The hitting coach job is on the line ?

[adambr2]

Wong has a 98 OPS + this year and his career OPS + is 95. He is performing exactly as expected, no more and no less.

 

People aren't saying that Wong's bat is bad or saying that Wong was a bad signing. It is an average bat and will likely continue to be an exactly average bat. Therein lies the problem -- an exactly average bat is one of the best bats in our regular lineup.

 

Bradley on the other hand is nowhere near the "average" bat that we need him to be.

[Jopal78]

 

Expecting these guys to all just deviate to their career norms probably isn't realistic. You are talking 3 out of 4 guys in their 30s and no longer in the primes of their careers.

 

Cain might genuinely be washed up. It was 2 calendar years for him.

 

Bradley isn't this bad and won't finish this bad offensively, but he still looks like a poor signing. I would guess he'll finish closer to his career norms than what he is right now but probably still comfortably below. He's dug himself a pretty big hole.

 

Vogelbach is whatever. He's a far below average bat for the 1B position. He could finish at his current OPS of .678 and it shouldn't be that surprising if he did to anyone. Or he'll finish around his career mark of .735. It doesn't make much difference. He's just not very good.

 

Shaw was an awesome player in '17 and '18. It is now '21 and he looks pretty washed up relative to what he was then. He hasn't approached his career averages since '18 and isn't going to this year. If he could maintain his current. 722 OPS/98 OPS+, that is probably about the best we can hope for from him. He simply isn't a .770 OPS player anymore.

 

But is it unrealistic? Take Bradley for example, even removing his biggest years from his career line, he’d still be a .737 hitter. He’s 200 points below that right now, I don’t think anyone believes he’s “washed up” at 31 where he’s suddenly a sub .650 OPS hitter, especially coming off a (short) season where his OPS was over .800. He’s making 12 million dollars, what other OFer see could they have signed at that price point that’s be substantially better? Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario?

 

As for Cain, he’s been a .752 OPS player with Milwaukee. He’s currently batting .185 and has an OPS of .690. If he gets his batting average up to .230 with all singles he’d be a .735 OPS hitter. To your point, I think it’s unrealistic for a career .287 hitter to regress to the point where suddenly he’s unable to crack .200. If that does turn out to be the case with Cain the the good news is, they’ll release him before the years over.

 

I get it, you've made it clear you don’t like Vogelbach, and I’m not going to argue he’s great. The facts are, however, when he’s gotten more than 100 at bats in a season he has a .768 OPS (108 OPS+). At 28 years old it’s more probably true than not, he’ll start to hit better and get his numbers closer to the league average hitter he is.

 

Shaw at .722 is right about where he was last year .717. He was on a non-roster deal, on the one hand you can say he’s earned every penny they’ve paid him.

 

The big point is, this is a team that is over .500 with several everyday players slumping incredibly, and their best player hurt all year. Even a slight improvement by these players means they probably are a first place team given the pitching. If anyone grumbles about the make up of the lineup, the question becomes who else could they have gotten at the same price that’d would be better?

[Baldkin]

MLB average OPS so far this season is .701.

 

2019 that was .758.

 

There is a whole lot of offensive suppression going on.

[PeaveyFury]

Wong has a 98 OPS + this year and his career OPS + is 95. He is performing exactly as expected, no more and no less.

 

People aren't saying that Wong's bat is bad or saying that Wong was a bad signing. It is an average bat and will likely continue to be an exactly average bat. Therein lies the problem -- an exactly average bat is one of the best bats in our regular lineup.

 

Bradley on the other hand is nowhere near the "average" bat that we need him to be.

 

Didn't really answer the question- what would you have done this offseason to 'fix' the offense?

[adambr2]

Wong has a 98 OPS + this year and his career OPS + is 95. He is performing exactly as expected, no more and no less.

 

People aren't saying that Wong's bat is bad or saying that Wong was a bad signing. It is an average bat and will likely continue to be an exactly average bat. Therein lies the problem -- an exactly average bat is one of the best bats in our regular lineup.

 

Bradley on the other hand is nowhere near the "average" bat that we need him to be.

 

Didn't really answer the question- what would you have done this offseason to 'fix' the offense?

 

I mean I was replying to others as I didn't know you were addressing me but I've stated what I would have done in numerous threads. I would have gotten involved in the trade market for Arenado or at least attempted to.

 

I also liked Brad Miller as a guy that could have been a cheap improvement over what we usually trot out from the bench.

[PeaveyFury]

I mean I was replying to others as I didn't know you were addressing me but I've stated what I would have done in numerous threads. I would have gotten involved in the trade market for Arenado or at least attempted to.

 

Well, I probably should have phrased it as 'what could the Brewers REALISTICALLY have done to fix the offense?'

 

And you are right, I wasn't specifically addressing you, I was addressing the poster I quoted. But since you responded to my post, I though I'd ask you as well.

[adambr2]

I mean I was replying to others as I didn't know you were addressing me but I've stated what I would have done in numerous threads. I would have gotten involved in the trade market for Arenado or at least attempted to.

 

Well, I probably should have phrased it as 'what could the Brewers REALISTICALLY have done to fix the offense?'

 

And you are right, I wasn't specifically addressing you, I was addressing the poster I quoted. But since you responded to my post, I though I'd ask you as well.

 

How am I being unrealistic? They can afford to give 10-12M a year to guys like Garcia and Bradley at positions we supposedly had a surplus at but they can't afford just north of 20M a year (given what the Rockies picked up) for an elite 3B?

 

They absolutely can afford 7/150 or so for Arenado if Mark A gives his blessing. That's not unreasonable, Gerrit Cole territory.

[PeaveyFury]

How am I being unrealistic? They can afford to give 10-14M a year to guys like Garcia and Bradley at positions we supposedly had a surplus at but they can't afford just north of 20M a year (given what the Rockies picked up) for an elite 3B?

 

They absolutely can afford 7/150 or so for Arenado if Mark A gives his blessing. That's not unreasonable, Gerrit Cole territory.

 

The difference between 10-14 million on a 1-2 year commitment vs. 7/150 is absolutely cavernous for the Brewers.

[adambr2]

How am I being unrealistic? They can afford to give 10-14M a year to guys like Garcia and Bradley at positions we supposedly had a surplus at but they can't afford just north of 20M a year (given what the Rockies picked up) for an elite 3B?

 

They absolutely can afford 7/150 or so for Arenado if Mark A gives his blessing. That's not unreasonable, Gerrit Cole territory.

 

The difference between 10-14 million on a 1-2 year commitment vs. 7/150 is absolutely cavernous for the Brewers.

 

I don't buy it. They just gave Cain alone more than half that 3 years ago when they didn't even really have an urgent need there. They just gave over 200M to Yelich.

 

The total investment for Bradley and Avi after Bradley exercises his option next year will be 42M.

 

They have money, they're just making poor investments with it.

 

Normally I'm on your side on things like this when we're talking contracts for guys like Rendon, Cole, etc. But 7/150 for an elite 3B...that's a reasonable, and quite frankly worthwhile, investment. That's not over the top.

 

If you think they can't afford just north of 20M for elite players on long-term deals, you better enjoy Woodruff and Burnes while they're still here because it won't be for the long haul.

[mtrebs]

Wouldn’t surprise me if the offense finally shows up after Woodruff and Burnes depart. Can’t have both offense and good pitching you know. It’s only one of the other in Milwaukee.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't buy it. They just gave Cain alone more than half that 3 years ago when they didn't even really have an urgent need there. They just gave over 200M to Yelich.

 

..and fans are already calling the Yelich contract and albatross and the rest of us are watching the ugliness we expected from Cain's. You think they had the resources to take on Arenado's contract as well? With Yelich/Arenado's performance likely declining at some point along the way to make them horrendous contracts, you'd be looking at the 90s-level Brewers for the better part of a decade.

 

But, if that was your expectation/understanding of the Brewers' financial situation, I'm not surprised there was disappointment for how the offseason unfolded. I just don't think that expectation was in the same stratosphere as reality.

[adambr2]

I don't buy it. They just gave Cain alone more than half that 3 years ago when they didn't even really have an urgent need there. They just gave over 200M to Yelich.

 

..and fans are already calling the Yelich contract and albatross and the rest of us are watching the ugliness we expected from Cain's. You think they had the resources to take on Arenado's contract as well? With Yelich/Arenado's performance likely declining at some point along the way to make them horrendous contracts, you'd be looking at the 90s-level Brewers for the better part of a decade.

 

But, if that was your expectation/understanding of the Brewers' financial situation, I'm not surprised there was disappointment for how the offseason unfolded. I just don't think that expectation was in the same stratosphere as reality.

 

I mean you asked what offensive improvements I would have done and I told you what I would have done and you don't agree with me on the realism of it. I think it's quite an embellishment to say that we'd be looking at returning to the 90s Brewers for the better part of a decade in the later years of Yelich/Arenado. If that's really the case than we really shouldn't be given out such contracts whatsoever and instead following more of a Tampa Rays model.

 

Short of that disagreement I'm not sure what else to say, generally there are not marked offensive improvements available in the 5-10M range. Although as I mentioned I thought Brad Miller would have been a sneaky good pickup and it kind of boggles my mind how a guy like that can get DFAed by us with some of the absolute junk we've thrown out in our last few spots the last few years.

[Eye Black]

To me, the entire concept of having to wait years to judge a trade is not much more than a defense mechanism fans use to defend it if the trade is looking really bad. Are there really Marlin fans out there saying they need to wait and see if the Yelich trade looks horrible because Monte Harrison is only 25 and has only had 57 big league PAs, and Yelich is following up a lost season with an injury-riddled one?

 

The Grisham trade looks horrible right now, and it's ok to say that. You just do so with the caveat that things can change over time, but that doesn't prevent you from evaluating to this point. We're 18 months removed from the trade. It didn't happen last week.

 

And even IF, even IF Urias becomes AS good as Grisham (highly unlikely), Grisham is still the better value, because his production to this date helped his new team. That's something that seems to be missed looked at these. Grisham and Davies producing for the Padres mattered. Davies being really good last year helped convince the Cubs to take him on in a Darvish deal. That mattered. Do we not consider the Travis Shaw trade to be a homerun just because he completely flamed out in '19? No, it was still a homerun. We got two 4 WAR seasons at 3B out of Travis Shaw, and that mattered.

 

I think to a degree, some Brewer fans have so much respect and admiration for what Stearns did his first 3 years here (understandably), that they still can't quite believe that Stearns would make some big mistakes. I think there's some "Stearns-magic" mentality, and some believe that, if David thought enough of Urias and Lauer to make this deal, we just have to wait, it's going to work out. It might just not. The guy makes mistakes too. It happens.

 

I'm not saying it's over, but I think our own optimistic expectations are a bit unrealistic. Yes, there is a greater than zero chance that Eric Lauer develops into a left handed ace. There is a greater than zero chance that Urias becomes a perrenial all-star caliber SS. There is a greater than zero chance that Leo Crawford becomes a stud MLB pitcher and makes me look silly for calling him a non-prospect.

 

But when you look at the overall field of possible outcomes, the mean of all the likely scenarios are closer to this trade not looking much or any better 2-3 years from now, than they are to anything I listed above happening.

This is a well reasoned and well written post despite my disagreement with the position.

 

I do not believe that Stearns is infallible in his decision making and agree that right now the trade is heavily in favor of the Padres. That is undeniable. What I will say is that I also remember JJ Hardy coming up to the Majors in 2005 as a 23 year old kid and barely being able to hit. In fact, looking it up on Baseball Reference, through his first 70 games in 2005, in 223 PAs/191 ABs, he slashed .194/.297/.574. Hardy went on to be a good ballplayer for the next decade.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=hardyjj01&t=b&year=2005

 

In comparison, Urias is also 23 and, as a Brewer, has 241 PAs/212 ABS and a slash of .217/.304/.620.

 

The guy Hardy was traded for did something quite similar in his first two seasons in Milwaukee. Gomez slashed .238/.288/.666 in his first 576 PAs/522 ABs as a Brewer https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml

 

Is Urias going to be the next Hardy or Gomez? Who knows? My point is solely that some players take a bit more time than others and Urias may just be another one of those guys that takes a season or two to figure it out before breaking out.

 

I just think the microscope, spotlight and lack of patience from fans are on all Brewers right now due to atrocious offensive start and more so than normal on Urias due to Grisham's play in San Diego.

I don’t think waiting to judge trades of young players is as much a defense mechanism (at least for me) as it is understanding that players often aren’t what their first few hundred MLB plate appearances suggest. Brett Lawrie looked like he could be a future Hall of Famer after his first MLB stint with the Blue Jays. Michael Brantley was a below league average hitter his first three MLB seasons (and nearly 1,000 plate appearances). Lots of players become much different hitters as their careers evolve. That doesn’t mean I’m ecstatic with the trade at this moment in time or would even “bet” on Urias to be the better player, just that I’m not willing to form some concrete opinion about it at this point.

 

I would also add that while Grisham has been a much better defender than I ever anticipated he could be, I don’t think we have any idea what he’s going to do offensively over the long haul. He started last season incredibly hot for the first 30 games, and then was pedestrian the rest of the season. He attacks fastballs, but struggles against good changeups. Of course that approach could certainly change over time as well.

 

2020 first 30 games:

29 GP, .271 BA, .381 OBP, .533 SLG, .914 OPS, 7 HR, 30 SO

 

2020 last 30 games and playoffs:

36 GP, .215 BA, .316 OBP, .346 SLG, .662 OPS, 3 HR, 45 SO

 

This year he’s been pretty good again so far:

29 GP, .288 BA, .363 OBP, .486 SLG, .849 OPS, 5 HR, 33 SO

[RollieTime]

Arenado just turned 30 and was under contract only through his age 35 season at the time of the trade. He’s won the last 8 gold gloves at third, nearly a career .300 hitter, 30+ homerun pop, right handed bat to pair with Yelich. And the Cardinals only need to pay something like $25 million per season. I would have been all over this.

[pitchleague]

Arenado just turned 30 and was under contract only through his age 35 season at the time of the trade. He’s won the last 8 gold gloves at third, nearly a career .300 hitter, 30+ homerun pop, right handed bat to pair with Yelich. And the Cardinals only need to pay something like $25 million per season. I would have been all over this.

 

I’ve seen this elsewhere in this thread, with various posters commenting about why we didn’t try to acquire Arenado. The question I have is, how do you know that we DIDN’T? Don’t you think that Stearns did his due diligence and at least called the Rockies and checked in during the off-season? I HAVE to think that he did. Maybe they were close to a deal. Maybe nothing materialized at all. Maybe the price was laughable from the Brewers’ point of view or, worse, from the Rockies.

 

We just don’t know. And we never will. It is nice being an armchair general manager but the real thing is nowhere close to the same experience.

[DHonks]

This team has the epitome of warning track power. Every game it seems we have about 6 deep drives that get to the fence.

[RollieTime]

Arenado just turned 30 and was under contract only through his age 35 season at the time of the trade. He’s won the last 8 gold gloves at third, nearly a career .300 hitter, 30+ homerun pop, right handed bat to pair with Yelich. And the Cardinals only need to pay something like $25 million per season. I would have been all over this.

 

I’ve seen this elsewhere in this thread, with various posters commenting about why we didn’t try to acquire Arenado. The question I have is, how do you know that we DIDN’T? Don’t you think that Stearns did his due diligence and at least called the Rockies and checked in during the off-season? I HAVE to think that he did. Maybe they were close to a deal. Maybe nothing materialized at all. Maybe the price was laughable from the Brewers’ point of view or, worse, from the Rockies.

 

We just don’t know. And we never will. It is nice being an armchair general manager but the real thing is nowhere close to the same experience.

 

I am sure he did his due diligence on Arenado. I just meant that he’s a target that I would have been after. Which I’m sure many others were in discussions with the Rockies for his services.

[wntrtxn21]

Arenado just turned 30 and was under contract only through his age 35 season at the time of the trade. He’s won the last 8 gold gloves at third, nearly a career .300 hitter, 30+ homerun pop, right handed bat to pair with Yelich. And the Cardinals only need to pay something like $25 million per season. I would have been all over this.

 

The HUGE thing you are not saying is that Arenado has a player opt-out after the 2021 season and wanted to add (and did) an opt-out after the 2022 season. Plus he maintains his no-trade contract. The Brewers could very well have been trading for one year of Arenado.

[adambr2]

Arenado just turned 30 and was under contract only through his age 35 season at the time of the trade. He’s won the last 8 gold gloves at third, nearly a career .300 hitter, 30+ homerun pop, right handed bat to pair with Yelich. And the Cardinals only need to pay something like $25 million per season. I would have been all over this.

 

The HUGE thing you are not saying is that Arenado has a player opt-out after the 2021 season and wanted to add (and did) an opt-out after the 2022 season. Plus he maintains his no-trade contract. The Brewers could very well have been trading for one year of Arenado.

 

1) Arenado has already said he doesn't plan on using his opt outs.

 

2) Who cares if they did trade for one year? The Cardinals gave up a bunch of garbage. The best player they gave up in the deal was Austin Gomber. If he opts out after one year you still got one great of production out of an elite player and now you're not on the hook long-term AND you get compensation for him walking. There's no loss here.

[mtrebs]

We can argue all day, but it comes down to whether or not Stearns acquires good offensive talent. He hasn’t the last two years and it’s been detrimental to the on-field product, which likely will hurt the Brewers pocketbook when fans aren’t going to show up knowing that if the pitchers give up more than two runs the game is likely over. Like it or not, most fans want to see excitement at the ballpark (even if the Brewers lose), and the offense-less flavor of Brewers baseball just isn’t exciting for most. Edited May 15, 2021 by mtrebs