Brewers' Offense

[RobDeer 45]

A place to celebrate, a place to vent.

 

I think the Brewer's offense will be the biggest topic on our minds this season. I think what we've seen so far, is what I was kind of predicting. Some frustrating nights of offense, and I'm guessing we'll have long stretches of it. I think our pitching is going to be tough, so we'll be in games. I said this before but get ready for the 3-2 nail biters this season! Should be fun and agonizing all at the same time.

 

Edit: Subject....whoa solved?

[pacopete4]

We currently last in OPS in the mid .500's and we are 3-3. I will gladly take that and know that we will eventually tick the other direction with the offense.

[KeithStone53151]

Currently we are tied for the 4th lowest average runs per game in the league. 4th lowest avg, lowest ops, 4th lowest bb, 3rd highest strikeouts. I don't think anybody predicted the offense would be this bad, take it as small sample and it will probably improve. I personally would bet heavily we don't maintain a 515 OPS as a team for the entire season.

[MrTPlush]

Currently we are tied for the 4th lowest average runs per game in the league. 4th lowest avg, lowest ops, 4th lowest bb, 3rd highest strikeouts. I don't think anybody predicted the offense would be this bad, take it as small sample and it will probably improve. I personally would bet heavily we don't maintain a 515 OPS as a team for the entire season.

 

We all said the same last year....and it ended up sucking pretty bad all year.

 

Hopefully this year is not a repeat of that.

[KeithStone53151]

Currently we are tied for the 4th lowest average runs per game in the league. 4th lowest avg, lowest ops, 4th lowest bb, 3rd highest strikeouts. I don't think anybody predicted the offense would be this bad, take it as small sample and it will probably improve. I personally would bet heavily we don't maintain a 515 OPS as a team for the entire season.

 

We all said the same last year....and it ended up sucking pretty bad all year.

 

Hopefully this year is not a repeat of that.

 

It might be bad, but it can't be this bad. 515 OPS is almost like running 9 pitchers up to the plate every game...last year the team combined for a 702 OPS for reference.

[Lathund]

It has been frustrating to watch so far, but it's still so early where you can't trust most numbers. Like there is a .250 spread between highest and lowest team BABIP in the league; looking over the most recent full seasons the gap has been more like 40, and more like 20 if you take away the very top and bottom teams. Flyball % is between 23% and 46%, HR/FB rates range from 3% to 24%. The spread for those same numbers in 2019 was 30-39% and 11-20%. Infield flyball rate has a span of 3%-20%, while in 2019 the span was 4% between top and bottom.

 

Those were just some batted ball stats I looked at to illustrate that it's still so early. Teams have only faced two other teams, 6 different starters. They've played in one or two different stadiums. One really good or one really bad game will account for 1/6 of their stats and have a huge impact on the totals. They're still figuring out their rosters, players with injury-shortened ST are still finding their feet. The list goes on and on.

 

I have some things I worry a bit about with the Brewers offense, but by and large I'll just wait until the stats even start to give a representative sample of a team, much less a player. Once some of that randomness is gone, then I'll start to really consider the state of it. But when full-time players batting averages can still move 50 points in either direction based of just one at bat, the overall numbers don't really mean much. Can still watch at bats and draw some conclusions from that, but even our evaluations of that are affected by the outcomes.

[sveumrules]

Projections typically use three full seasons of performance & they still produce a fairly wide range of outcomes.

 

I don't see how using six or even sixty games would somehow produce more accurate results.

 

Before he got hired by the Rays, Jeff Sullivan wrote an article at FanGraphs examining which of actual 1st half results, pythag 1st half results or projected 2nd half results did the best job of predicting actual 2nd half results.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/

 

Even after 80 games (13x more than we've played) the projected 2nd half results still did a better job of predicting the actual 2nd half results than either of 1st half actual or pythag results.

 

When I posted this link last year after 19 games the team wRC+ was 75, by the end of the season 41 games later it was up to 89. After another 100 games who knows where it would have ended up.

[Hopper]

This offense is so similar to last year's it's scary.

Last year they never really came out of it.

It almost feels like this year (so far) is just a continuation from last year.

Like there was never a break in between.

It's not even the same players, but it seems the same regardless.

[SeaBass]

Currently we are tied for the 4th lowest average runs per game in the league. 4th lowest avg, lowest ops, 4th lowest bb, 3rd highest strikeouts. I don't think anybody predicted the offense would be this bad, take it as small sample and it will probably improve. I personally would bet heavily we don't maintain a 515 OPS as a team for the entire season.

 

We all said the same last year....and it ended up sucking pretty bad all year.

 

Hopefully this year is not a repeat of that.

Current Brewers that were on the roster last year with over 100 ABs:

Hiura (217 ABs)

Yelich (200)

Garcia (181)

Urias (109)

Narvaez (108)

 

That's it. After Narvaez's 108 ABs the next highest guy is Vogelbach at 58 and he only played 1/3 of the season's games (19) with the Brewers.

 

It really can't be stressed enough how different this year's roster is from last season. Plus, for the most part, aren't we expecting each of the 5 above players to do better than last year? It's a pretty low bar even for the most pessimistic Brewers fan. Outside of Yelich at a .786 OPS the other 4 were .700 or below. Even Urias at .600 and Narvaez at .560, I can't really imagine they repeat such bad numbers.

 

Anyway, my main point is if they struggle like last year it's going to be a really grim season of baseball.

[MrTPlush]

Currently we are tied for the 4th lowest average runs per game in the league. 4th lowest avg, lowest ops, 4th lowest bb, 3rd highest strikeouts. I don't think anybody predicted the offense would be this bad, take it as small sample and it will probably improve. I personally would bet heavily we don't maintain a 515 OPS as a team for the entire season.

 

We all said the same last year....and it ended up sucking pretty bad all year.

 

Hopefully this year is not a repeat of that.

 

It might be bad, but it can't be this bad. 515 OPS is almost like running 9 pitchers up to the plate every game...last year the team combined for a 702 OPS for reference.

 

Of course, but .515 is a loooong way away from acceptable if we have aspirations of the postseason. We have to do better than last years .702 OPS. That kind of performance was 670 runs pace. In 162 games that is probably not going to cut it without incredible pitching and while our pitching is good I don't think it is that good.

[Warning Track Power]

Luis Urias is the big surprise to me through the first week of the season. Small sample size certainly, but as has been mentioned in other places, he was a very highly thought of prospect (was low 30s in 2018-2019 in Baseball America and low 20s in 2019 on MLB.com) with an advanced hit tool (career .308/.397/.830 slash in 2401 PAs in MiLB) and has just looked lost at the MLB level. Little to no hard contact and high K levels. If anything, I could have anticipated little to no hard contact given his size but the K levels are concerning.

 

In our annual predictions of the season, I predicted him to be the pleasant surprise of the season and becoming the Kolten Wong of SS, meaning .260-.270 AVG, 10ish HR power and solid if not spectacular D. Obviously he is only 23 and the season is young, but the results thus far are concerning.

[sveumrules]

Last year they never really came out of it.

 

First 19 games of 2020 team wRC+ was 75 (28th), last 41 games it was 96 (18th).

 

While they never quite reached average over sixty games in 2020, they certainly were coming out of it (some might say regressing towards the mean) as the season went along & who knows what would have happened over another 100 games.

[trwi7]

Luis Urias is the big surprise to me through the first week of the season. Small sample size certainly, but as has been mentioned in other places, he was a very highly thought of prospect (was low 30s in 2018-2019 in Baseball America and low 20s in 2019 on MLB.com) with an advanced hit tool (career .308/.397/.830 slash in 2401 PAs in MiLB)

 

Doesn't really have power though. MLB pitchers are going to challenge you when they know that the worst that's going to happen is maybe a double but more likely a single.

[Warning Track Power]

Luis Urias is the big surprise to me through the first week of the season. Small sample size certainly, but as has been mentioned in other places, he was a very highly thought of prospect (was low 30s in 2018-2019 in Baseball America and low 20s in 2019 on MLB.com) with an advanced hit tool (career .308/.397/.830 slash in 2401 PAs in MiLB)

 

Doesn't really have power though. MLB pitchers are going to challenge you when they know that the worst that's going to happen is maybe a double but more likely a single.

Absolutely agree and with those challenge pitches, assuming they're in the strike zone, I would think Urias would be crushing (meaning hard-hit singles/doubles) them. His hit tool was a 70 according to MLB.com as he was coming up through the minors and his MLB.com profile is below:

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 70 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55

 

Signed out of the Mexican League in December 2013, Urias has since developed into one of the more accomplished hitters in the Minor Leagues. The California League's youngest everyday player on Opening Day in 2016, Urias went on to win the circuit's batting title and MVP award at age 19, and then garnered Double-A Texas League All-Star honors in 2017 before a standout turn in the prestigious Arizona Fall League.

 

Urias stands out as much for his approach and plate discipline as he does for his pure hitting ability. He has an advanced knowledge of the strike zone as well as excellent pitch recognition, a combination that netted him the Texas League's top on-base percentage (.398) in 2017, and has resulted in more walks (153) than strikeouts (135) in four professional seasons. Urias' bat-to-ball skills are impressive, and he produces hard line drives across the entire field with a compact, level swing. His raw power, meanwhile, is better than his numbers suggest, though Urias' should be a consistent source of extra-base hits thanks to his knack for pounding the gaps. Urias has solid arm strength and can get the job done at shortstop, but he offers more upside at second base, where he's a plus defender and has spent the bulk of his pro career.

 

Urias proved plenty capable at shortstop in 2017, first in Double-A and then in the Arizona Fall League, and should continue to see some time there moving forward. His ultimate defensive home, however, is likely second base, where he profiles as an above-average defender with good range and arm strength. Overall, Urias has the ingredients to hit atop a lineup while manning a middle-infield position for a long, long time.

 

Like I said, I was expecting a Wong line this year and, possibly in a few seasons, a batting title contender. Urias, in my view, could be a Mark Loretta clone that could match his 162-game average line of .295/.360/.754, doubles machine out of the leadoff spot. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/loretma01.shtml

 

It is still WAY too early to say he won't hit that, it's just he looks more like Lewis Brinson than Mark Loretta.

[timpep]

Last year they never really came out of it.

 

First 19 games of 2020 team wRC+ was 75 (28th), last 41 games it was 96 (18th).

 

While they never quite reached average over sixty games in 2020, they certainly were coming out of it (some might say regressing towards the mean) as the season went along & who knows what would have happened over another 100 games.

 

 

This isn't at all how I remembered the season. I didn't remember the offense starting to come out of it at all. I also noticed you chose some weird splits (19 games vs 41 games) and thought that my memory combined with your odd splits might be hiding the truth. I decided to check out last years game logs. I used baseball-reference because of familiarity so I'll use more raw stats like ops and runs scored, but I think you might be using weird splits to misrepresent reality.

 

First I'd like to point out that if you reverse the splits you get this:

First 41 Games - .228/.321/.398 for a .718 OPS

177 Runs scored for average of 4.3 per game

 

Last 19 Games - .221/.296/.368 for .664 OPS

70 runs scores for 3.7 runs per game.

 

lets break it down a bit differently

 

Games 1-10 39 Runs .662 OPS

Less than 4 runs - 5

Games 11-20 41 Runs .668 OPS

Less than 4 runs - 5

Games 21-30 32 Runs .640 OPS

Less than 4 runs - 6

Games 31-40 46 Runs .784 OPS

Less than 4 runs - 5

Games 41-50 61 Runs(37 came in 2 games, the other 24 came in 8) .842 OPS

Less than 4 runs - 6

Games 51-60 28 Runs .611 OPS

Less than 4 runs - 8

 

So yeah, the raw stats were boosted quite a bit by 2 games where they scored 19 and 18 runs, if you look at the games around those 2 games though, they still struggled to score 4 runs all year long. A couple of insane games made them look a lot better than they were.

[pacopete4]

Once Braun returns in July/August, we will be just fine.

[Hopper]

Last year they never really came out of it.

 

First 19 games of 2020 team wRC+ was 75 (28th), last 41 games it was 96 (18th).

 

While they never quite reached average over sixty games in 2020, they certainly were coming out of it (some might say regressing towards the mean) as the season went along & who knows what would have happened over another 100 games.

 

You can throw out any stats you want to make you sound correct.

I'm sure I can cherry pick a few stats that make me sound correct too.

This team so far this year feels the same, and is getting the same basic results.

This team sure seems like the squad we fielded last year, however, I do realize there is a lot of season left.

[FVBrewerFan]

For me, Urias is "baked in." I didn't expect anything from him. What hurts is Hiura/Garcia. Two guys they really want to play, and should be productive. If they're not, pretty easy to fix- just a matter of how patient they are. Plenty of OF options if Garica doesn't heat up, and I"m high on Vogelbach if Hiura continues to struggle. Vogelbach should get more starts regardless IMHO.

 

Finally Cain and JBJ were both knicked up a little so they eased them back in. Hopefully they're fully ready to go now, and consistent ABs from them will help immensely.

[umphrey]

Overall, it’s a bad start. But we have some bright spots with Cain, Narvaez, and Shaw. If they can have good seasons, I feel like the other problems are fixable (Hiura demotion, Yelich power will come, Wong and Bradley average will improve).

[Bulldogboy]

One of the reason I hated the Bradley sign is he can't hit. Now if a guys going good like Cain he has to sit a day so the round robin stays in effect. It's one thing to have a bench outfielder like Taylor. Another alltogether to have four starters. Ugh.

[wibadgers23]

I really feel for our starting pitchers. They have to be nearly perfect and even then, it isn’t enough.

[trwi7]

Burnes - 6.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K

Peralta - 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K

Woodruff - 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Burnes - 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

 

That's 4 out of 7 games this year where our starters have given up 1 hit and we're only 2-2 in those games.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

At least today felt...competitive? Wainwright was on the ropes a lot and got bailed out by good D and batted ball luck.

 

Brewers had the better of the contact. Offense deserved more than 1. It hurts in the context of their struggles, but I did see some positives today, especially in the early innings. Urias got robbed of a double, Cain smoked two, and even Big Dan hit that laser in the ninth that Eddman made a good play on. Stinks to have some of the best contact of the year get wasted, but that's baseball, I guess.

[wallus]

Last year they never really came out of it.

 

First 19 games of 2020 team wRC+ was 75 (28th), last 41 games it was 96 (18th).

 

While they never quite reached average over sixty games in 2020, they certainly were coming out of it (some might say regressing towards the mean) as the season went along & who knows what would have happened over another 100 games.

 

 

I'm sure I can cherry pick a few stats that make me sound correct too.

 

Go for it, I'd like to see these cherry picked stats.

[Pugger]

Currently we are tied for the 4th lowest average runs per game in the league. 4th lowest avg, lowest ops, 4th lowest bb, 3rd highest strikeouts. I don't think anybody predicted the offense would be this bad, take it as small sample and it will probably improve. I personally would bet heavily we don't maintain a 515 OPS as a team for the entire season.

 

We all said the same last year....and it ended up sucking pretty bad all year.

 

Hopefully this year is not a repeat of that.

 

This does feel like Groundhog Day. This bunch still cannot get the crucial hit with runners in scoring position.