2021-04-07: Brewers (Woodruff) at Cubs (Hendricks) [Brewers win, 4-2 in 10 innings -- Woodruff allows just one hit over 7 IP; Cain hits two late inning go-ahead home runs]

[SomewhereInTime]

Maybe next time we keep a dominating starter in the game when he only has 74 pitches

[adambr2]

We can be mad at Williams and Counsell all we want but our joke of an offense is why we’re in this position.

 

I'm not mad at Williams at all. I'm mad at Counsell for removing Woodruff before it was needed.

 

Yes, our offense sucks. Which is why we need to make the right in-game decisions that don't turn 1-0 wins into 2-1 losses.

[Simba2020]

Could you imagine if Counsell tried to take out Verlander, Scherzer, Bumgarner, etc. after 74 pitches?

[BruisedCrew]

Isn’t it foolish to take a pitcher who was barely able to get any work in spring training and immediately throw him into a high leverage role expecting him to be as effective as he was last season?

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

We can be mad at Williams and Counsell all we want but our joke of an offense is why we’re in this position.

 

I'm not mad at Williams at all. I'm mad at Counsell for removing Woodruff before it was needed.

 

Yes, our offense sucks. Which is why we need to make the right in-game decisions that don't turn 1-0 wins into 2-1 losses.

 

This is a good point. Lamenting that horrible foul ball call too.

[SomewhereInTime]

Like I get it 20 years ago when we started to figure out 120+ pitches was a bad idea and can lead to injury. 74? I don't think today's pitchers have regressed far enough to where they can't handle more than 74 pitches when dominating. Just idiotic modern day mismanagement.

[brewcrewdue80]

Williams may be a liability this year.

 

On a Fastball ahead in the count. Immediately strikes out the next 2 with changeups. It was a bad pitch on a bad pitch call to a hitter that hits FBs well.

 

Woodruff should have still been pitching so also Counsells fault

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I still don't get it. Woodruff was still dealing. His pitch count wasn't high. Just ....why?

 

Over-managing nonsense that has been rampant in baseball for a good 20 years. All I can think of is getting Williams work in a tight situation. No way I'd have taken Woody out with how he looked and his counts. But managers have their guys for their cute situations and circumstances be damned.

 

Well, Counsel seems more guilty of it than most others. He can't wait to bring in his relievers. Too bad for Woody but lets not forget the offense left him hanging with just a 1 run lead after that gem.

 

That's because I think Counsel follows the data more than most, which is usually a very good thing, but there ARE times when the analytics guys are wrong, IMO, and you need to use gut instinct sometimes. Rarely, but sometimes. I'm sure there is a strong evidence-based argument on 3rd time through VS. a reliever like Williams, but no way I'd have done it there.

[Simba2020]

And the Mets took out deGrom after 77 pitches and 6 dominant innings with a 2-0 lead. Of course they lost. I think when you have the aces of staffs and some of the best in the game, they really should be the ones to tap themselves out of the game. I get it when guys are on base but after an inning in that situation, is just stupid in my mind.

[adambr2]

Another 4 years or so and we can trade Urias for a couple AAAA arms.

[HarveysWBs]

It’s Woody’s second start of a long year after a hugely abbreviated and bizarre season last year. I have no issues with replacing Woodruff there. I’m not sure it is reasonable to expect many guys, including Woodruff, to give 200 innings this season, and I’m down with easing starters into 100-pitch games in April. Tempest in a teapot.

[NYChez]

Peralta, the barely stretched out #5 starter is allowed to throw 91 pitches, and then Woodruff, the fully stretched out ace, is pulled after 74 pitches.

[Eye Black]

The other problem with how this is lining up is Hader’s high strikeout profile is ridiculously valuable once you get to extra innings with the runner starting on 2B. By taking Woodruff out early you’ve likely eliminated that possibility as well.

[adambr2]

It’s Woody’s second start of a long year after a hugely abbreviated and bizarre season last year. I have no issues with replacing Woodruff there. I’m not sure it is reasonable to expect many guys, including Woodruff, to give 200 innings this season, and I’m down with easing starters into 100-pitch games in April. Tempest in a teapot.

 

Yet Peralta who isn't even stretched out all the way is allowed to throw over 90 yesterday?

 

No. It was a nonsensical move.

[Eye Black]

Hader comes into the 9th spot in the batting order (due up next) so it’s unlikely he’s going more than one inning if it does reach extras.

[Simba2020]

It’s Woody’s second start of a long year after a hugely abbreviated and bizarre season last year. I have no issues with replacing Woodruff there. I’m not sure it is reasonable to expect many guys, including Woodruff, to give 200 innings this season, and I’m down with easing starters into 100-pitch games in April. Tempest in a teapot.

This isn't an innings thing, or shouldn't be. There will probably be some starts where he labors and throws 100 pitches in 5 innings. When you are at 74, that is the equivalent of 5 innings in a normal start. He wouldn't have been pulled after 5 innings and 74 pitches so why do it just because he went 7 innings? Doubt the extra couple of innings of warmup pitches were a killer.

[brewcrewdue80]

The basic move on a pitcher during a good start was to leave him in until the batter he faced next could mean a L vs a Win or no decision. Counsell didnt face an at the plate decision to remove Woodruff. Bad decision as stated before Counsell didn't stick with Woody until there was a base runner or given up the HR himself. Its terrible because Counsell didn't allow Woodruff the ability to win the game himself. He'd be doing Woody a favor after a baserunner or HR given up to not get a losing decision.

[Baldkin]

https://prospects365.com/2020/07/16/pitch-quality-4-solving-the-times-through-the-order-penalty/

 

 

Hitters outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 8.59 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a starter for the 3rd time in a game (Hitter TTO = 3, Pitcher TTO = 3). In contrast, hitters only outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 3.85 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a fresh reliever in their 3rd PA of a game (Hitter TTO =3, Pitcher TTO = 1).

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I have no issue with Counsell removing any starter with an active no-hitter in a tie game (I know that had passed, just saying) if the situations calls for it or the guy is clearly laboring. This was a bad decision. I like CC a lot, but this was stupid. It's OK to call a spade a spade.

[nate82]

It is not the innings that is the problem here it is the number of pitches. Woodruff and Burnes are probably on strict pitch counts to start the year and Woodruff hit that mark and was thus taken out.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Hitters outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 8.59 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a starter for the 3rd time in a game (Hitter TTO = 3, Pitcher TTO = 3). In contrast, hitters only outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 3.85 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a fresh reliever in their 3rd PA of a game (Hitter TTO =3, Pitcher TTO = 1).

 

I think most of us are aware of this sort of thing by now, but what are the stats when the SP has thrown 74 pitches and given up 1 hit on his 3rd trip? This throws today's situation in a barrel with all kinds of scrubs working their 3rd time through on 97 pitches. There has to be a time when you toss this to the side when it's obvious a guy is dealing.

[HarveysWBs]

It’s Woody’s second start of a long year after a hugely abbreviated and bizarre season last year. I have no issues with replacing Woodruff there. I’m not sure it is reasonable to expect many guys, including Woodruff, to give 200 innings this season, and I’m down with easing starters into 100-pitch games in April. Tempest in a teapot.

This isn't an innings thing, or shouldn't be. There will probably be some starts where he labors and throws 100 pitches in 5 innings. When you are at 74, that is the equivalent of 5 innings in a normal start. He wouldn't have been pulled after 5 innings and 74 pitches so why do it just because he went 7 innings? Doubt the extra couple of innings of warmup pitches were a killer.

 

You do it after 7 and not 5 because you have (in theory, not necessarily practice—ie, Joc’s HR) fresher and more effective bullpen arms to take it the rest of the way. Your A team can cover two or three innings of a tied or close-led game, but probably not 4 such innings. Woody is likely to be counted on for many more high-leverage pitches and innings later in the year than will Freddy, as much as I hope Freddy continues his breakout. Bank some more pitches now for Woodruff, I say.

 

What I DO have a problem with, on the subject of in-game management, and as others have noted, is pigeonholing Hader to the “closer” role. The only thing I can say about it is that Hader seems to like it, and so it may have psychological performance benefits for Hader. But I do not like it analytically at all. I’d prefer a matchup based approach with relievers.

[brewcrewdue80]

https://prospects365.com/2020/07/16/pitch-quality-4-solving-the-times-through-the-order-penalty/

 

 

Hitters outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 8.59 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a starter for the 3rd time in a game (Hitter TTO = 3, Pitcher TTO = 3). In contrast, hitters only outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 3.85 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a fresh reliever in their 3rd PA of a game (Hitter TTO =3, Pitcher TTO = 1).

 

4th time per game though that 2.06?

 

Williams/Harder 2IP 42 pitches. Woodruffs highest pitch inning was the 7th at 19. Laboring less than your 2 closers late did.

[KeithStone53151]

It is not the innings that is the problem here it is the number of pitches. Woodruff and Burnes are probably on strict pitch counts to start the year and Woodruff hit that mark and was thus taken out.

 

The last 2 innings weren't nearly as clean as the first bunch. Also the SP warms up before the game and throws at least 8 pitches before each inning. The 6 innings and 90 pitches could be similarly as taxing on a pitchers arm as 7 innings 74 pitches. I really don't have a huge problem with CC protecting Woodruff's arm this early in the season. If he made this call in July I'd be more annoyed.

[Underachiever]

https://prospects365.com/2020/07/16/pitch-quality-4-solving-the-times-through-the-order-penalty/

 

 

Hitters outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 8.59 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a starter for the 3rd time in a game (Hitter TTO = 3, Pitcher TTO = 3). In contrast, hitters only outperformed the quality of the pitches they saw by 3.85 runs per 1000 pitches when facing a fresh reliever in their 3rd PA of a game (Hitter TTO =3, Pitcher TTO = 1).

Oh, well, never mind then. If only Williams could have held the Cubs to .59 or .85 of a run the game would be over! How many of those games did a pitcher have a one-hitter going? On 74 pitches. Analytics can be so tiresome.