Trevor Story (or other SS targets?)

[KCBrewerfan34]

Assuming the Rocks drop out of contention and aren’t going to re-sign this guy I think he is our #1 target. What would the ask be for a rental? I’m assuming we will be in contention.

 

Thoughts?

[wildcat2237]

IMHO, the Brewers top deadline priorities will be:

 

1. High level starting pitching. If you truly want to complete with the Dodgers and Padres I think they could use 1 more arm after Woodruff and Burnes.

 

2. Maybe a 1B or 3B. I hope Hiura and Shaw work out but I expect at least 1 to flop.

 

That said, if they go after Story, I doubt he comes cheap.

 

Negotiations probably start with a headliner of Mitchell, Hedbert Perez, Small, or Turang and then maybe 1 or 2 other guys.

 

The Brewers certainly could get it done with what's in their system but I don't think this would be my top priority.

[MrTPlush]

Way too early to even guess what our top needs will be. Urias and Arcia could certainly be decent, I highly doubt we go 1B, 3B could be fine with Shaw and Co.

 

Pitching is always a deadline need in some form for every team.

 

I doubt they go big at the deadline...but who knows. Could be an interesting deadline for teams who get full capacity attendance sooner rather than later. Teams held down by local officials could really be outbid due to financial costs quickly.

[Eye Black]

My way too early prediction is that the rental bidding for Trevor Story comes down to the Brewers, Yankees, and Reds with the Braves as a dark horse. It’s not unprecedented for the Brewers to be in the mix for a high profile rental, they did so with Machado in 2018. I think ultimately the Rockies will end up keeping Story and just taking the 2022 comp pick (approx #30 overall) when Story inevitably signs elsewhere next offseason.

[KCBrewerfan34]

That’s a disaster for the Rocks just taking a pick.

[adambr2]

Story is a guy I definitely would have loved in the offseason. It sounds like we are pretty much all-in on Urias at SS so we should have a good idea by July how that is panning out.

[AKCheesehead]

Story is another Colorado guy where you have to take a look at the home/away splits and figure out what you think he really is. (career .993 home ops, .760 away) In my mind, he'd probably improve the Brewers to some extent down the stretch, but not to any degree that would merit giving up any of those prospects mentioned by wildcat.

 

If Stearns gave Colorado Mitchell, for example, for 2.5 months of Story I probably couldn't even bring myself to be mad at him. I would figure he'd gone totally nuts and needed help from his loved ones.

[adambr2]

I don't think 2 months of Story is worth giving up Mitchell for either, but I also think the Coors effect of those lifetime Colorado hitters is a bit overblown. Most good hitters who leave Colorado adjust just fine. Not that a .993 home OPS is probably sustainable for him but if moved I'm confident he'd do considerably better than .760.

[wildcat2237]

I don't think 2 months of Story is worth giving up Mitchell for either, but I also think the Coors effect of those lifetime Colorado hitters is a bit overblown. Most good hitters who leave Colorado adjust just fine. Not that a .993 home OPS is probably sustainable for him but if moved I'm confident he'd do considerably better than .760.

 

He'd probably post an OPS somewhere right between .993 and .760.

 

Either way, I think he'd be fairly expensive, and just not worth the price. Especially, when this team can be improved at other positions.

[KCBrewerfan34]

This lineup is definitely short a bat, maybe 2

[pacopete4]

I’d let this lineup play for a bit before deciding what they’re short on. Very easy to get caught up in names.

[TURBO]

I wouldn't trade Mitchell alone for 2 months of Story.

 

I think that would be a foolish proposition for a team like the Brewers. Although he is a minor leaguer, I think he is the closest thing we have in our minors, as far as a bat is concerned, to be a real difference maker as early as next season.

[wildcat2237]

I’d let this lineup play for a bit before deciding what they’re short on. Very easy to get caught up in names.

 

I agree. This thread will be much more appropriate about June 1.

 

A lot needs to play out between now and then.

[jerichoholicninja]

No need to discus this as the Rockies will be 10 games back and under .500 at the deadline but make zero moves because that franchise is a rudderless ship.

[Eye Black]

No need to discus this as the Rockies will be 10 games back and under .500 at the deadline but make zero moves because that franchise is a rudderless ship.

I listened to an interview with a Rockies beat reporter (Nick Groke), and he talked about how the Rockies don’t act in-line with what’s generally considered rational by the consensus. He said after taking an absolute beating over the Arenado trade (in which case Nolan was requesting to be traded), he doesn’t think the owner, Dick Monfort (who he said fancies himself a GM), would be willing to trade Story even if it’s the obviously smart thing to do for the franchise. He was of the opinion it would need to be an extreme overpay in order for the Rockies not to just ride with Story right until the bitter end.

 

Groke also said the Rockies don’t typically make many trades. The Brewers and Rockies haven’t made a trade together since 2004.

[Eye Black]

I’d let this lineup play for a bit before deciding what they’re short on. Very easy to get caught up in names.

 

I agree. This thread will be much more appropriate about June 1.

 

A lot needs to play out between now and then.

The thing I disagree with a bit here is that unless Story falls off a cliff or gets injured it’s almost a certainty he’d improve the Brewers lineup significantly. If any two of the following four players are hitting at or below their expectations than Story makes all the sense in the world from the Brewers end (but NOT taking into account the likely high cost of acquiring him): Urias, Shaw, Arcia, Hiura

 

My point is it doesn’t have to necessarily be viewed as an upgrade over a current shortstop option. There are scenarios where you can move other guys to 3B (Urias, Arcia) and/or 1B (Shaw) to accommodate the addition of Story’s bat in the lineup.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

IMHO, the Brewers top deadline priorities will be:

 

1. High level starting pitching. If you truly want to complete with the Dodgers and Padres I think they could use 1 more arm after Woodruff and Burnes.

 

2. Maybe a 1B or 3B. I hope Hiura and Shaw work out but I expect at least 1 to flop.

 

That said, if they go after Story, I doubt he comes cheap.

 

Negotiations probably start with a headliner of Mitchell, Hedbert Perez, Small, or Turang and then maybe 1 or 2 other guys.

 

The Brewers certainly could get it done with what's in their system but I don't think this would be my top priority.

 

Just to clarify...you think Stearns would offer Mitchel, Turang or Small in a deal for Story? For one who will be a FA? One who has a career 760 OPS away from Coors Field?

 

I like Story’s game. But that would be quite the pill to swallow. Especially after seeing these boys ball in spring.

[markedman5]

Not big on rentals with a farm system so thin in top level prospects.

 

No way I’m giving up Mitchell and Stearns isn’t either.

 

I’m not as high on Small so parting with him would be easier for me.

[MrTPlush]

The problem with Story, is he really going to be a difference maker bat outside of Colorado? Why mortgage a huge chunk of the farm for a guy who will post a .800 OPS? Sure, great for SS...but hardly catapulting our offense.

 

If I am giving up our top prospect for a rental bat he better be MVP level with the bat no matter the position he plays.

[sveumrules]

Story to the Reds was the most obvious move of the offseason that didn't happen, but lolRockies is pretty much the new lolMets at this point, so not really I guess.

 

Either way, I don't see Stearns & company dealing any prospect they view as a long term future contributor for any rental player. The highest guys on the current BF.net Top 25 I could see them offering for deadline Trevor are maybe someone like Lutz or Rodriguez.

 

The free agent SS class should also be an interesting Story-line to follow this year. Career stats entering 2021 listed with Lindor included for reference even though he signed already, age in parentheses is for 2022 season...

 

Lindor (28) | 3510 PA | 117 OPS+ | +7 BSR | +38 FLD | 27.9 WAR

Correa (27) | 2583 PA | 126 OPS+ | +2 BSR | +47 FLD | 26.9 WAR

Story (29) | 2541 PA | 114 OPS+ | +10 BSR | +60 FLD | 22.7 WAR

Baez (29) | 2708 PA | 102 OPS+ | +13 BSR | +63 FLD | 19.1 WAR

Seager (28) | 2301 PA | 129 OPS+ | +6 BSR | -4 FLD | 17.7 WAR

[adambr2]

What were we offering for Machado in '18? I want to say that we wouldn't offer a better prospect than Luis Ortiz and the Os wanted Woodruff or Burnes.

[Eye Black]

What were we offering for Machado in '18? I want to say that we wouldn't offer a better prospect than Luis Ortiz and the Os wanted Woodruff or Burnes.

The Rosenthal report at the time was the Orioles wanted Corbin Burnes and the Brewers were offering Brett Phillips and Luis Ortiz. While that sounds like an incredibly large gulf now, at the time Phillips and Ortiz were the Brewers 4th and 5th ranked prospects according to MLB.com.

[Lathund]

I think trading for an expensive rental only makes sense in a few very lmited scenarios, like if the Brewers somehow look like genuine WS contenders at the deadline but SS is a black hole. And even then I'd be very wary of including the very top prospects in an already thin system. As far as trades go, I would only really give up top prospects for long-term trades. Yelich obviously springs to mind, Chris Sale is another one. They can also go wrong (Shelby Miller for example), but it's a much sounder strategy overall. There are always cheap rentals at the deadline who will improve the team for much less.

 

Let's see what a healthy Urias can do, I'm encouraged by his improvement throughout ST (As well as his minors pedigree). I for one believe we'll see league average or better production from SS, and any trade talk will be focused on other parts of the team.

[Eye Black]

Article on next offseason’s shortstop class from MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, How Lindor's deal shakes up '21 SS class

 

He makes predictions on each player including the following:

 

Story: Gets traded to the Brewers in July because the Brewers will want an upgrade at the Deadline and the Rockies will be sellers ... then signs with Rangers in the offseason.

[MadThinker88]

I think it was a Rangers beat writer on the Baseball Tonight podcast (when discussing the Rangers outlook/ plans) that noted Trevor Story is from the Dallas/ Fort worth area & the Rangers are very interested in attracting 1 of the SS free agents (mostly Story) after the 2021 season..