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BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2021 Pre-Season Edition - Results


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#1 ( new ) Garrett Mitchell, OF, age 22

631 points (17 1st place votes) - 27 of 27 ballots

The Brewers top pick in 2020 has impressed this spring. Mitchell has exceptional speed and first-rate defensive chops in CF. Most scouts believe he has more power in his bat - it’s just a matter of unlocking it. If Mitchell can do that - he’ll be the best offensive prospect to emerge from the organization in ages - which is why he tops the 2021 prospect poll.

 

#2 (-1) Brice Turang, SS, age 21

612 points (4 1st place votes) - 27 of 27 ballots

Plus hitting and speed. Solid defense. The Brewers were impressed by Turang during his time at the alternate training site in 2020. He has added some weight, so it will be interesting to see if that translates into some additional pop.

 

#3 (-1) Ethan Small, LHSP, age 24

558 points (1 1st place votes) - 27 of 27 ballots

Polished left-hander could reach Milwaukee with a good showing this year. Small has impressed in his limited appearances. He has a nice arsenal and good command. although he doesn’t throw hard.

 

#4 (+1) Mario Feliciano, C, age 21

557 points - 27 of 27 ballots

Feliciano broke out in 2019 (and reportedly impressed at last year’s alternative site), and Brewer fans are hoping he emerges as the organization’s first quality starting catcher since Jonathan Lucroy (sorry Jacob Nottingham). While Feliciano doesn’t walk a lot, he has power and a promising hit tool. His defense has steadily improved since being drafted.

 

#5 (-1) Aaron Ashby, LHSP, age 22

552 points - 27 of 27 ballots

Ashby continues to impress everywhere he goes. His slider is an absolute killer. The big question is if he can harness his pitches enough to stay in the rotation. At worse, he could emerge as a high leverage reliever with a nasty slider/fastball combination. It will all come down to his control.

 

#6 (+1) Antoine Kelly, LHSP, age 21

546 points - 26 of 27 ballots

Using his plus fastball, Kelly was outstanding in his pro debut in 2019. A big man (6’6”), Kelly has demonstrated greater command and control as he’s matured - meaning he could really be something special.

 

#7 (+5) Hedbert Perez, OF, Age 17

515 points (4 1st place votes) - 25 of 27 ballots

The son of former major leaguer Robert Perez, Hedbert has impressed thus far against older competition. Perez boasts a well rounded tool set, and he has the speed and ability to stick in CF. Everyone is excited to see the kid face live competition in 2021.

 

#8 ( New ) Freddy Zamora, SS, age 22

433 points - 26 of 27 ballots

Athletic shortstop with a plus arm, glove and range will make his pro debut in 2021. Zamora missed all of 2020 with an ACL tear - which was a big reason he fell into the 2nd round of the draft. He is a good hitter, and doesn’t strike out a ton, but did not generated a lot of power in his college career.

 

#9 (-3) Tristen Lutz, OF, age 22

409 points - 26 of 27 ballots

Big outfielder is looking to translate all his tools into the power bat the Brewers envision him to be. Lots of potential, but the organization is looking for Lutz to take that next step in his development.

 

#10 ( - ) Eduardo Garcia, SS, age 18

396 points - 25 of 27 ballots

First rate defense player with intriguing hitting tools that could very easily turn him into one of the game’s better prospects. An injury limited Garcia in 2019, but he should be one of the most watched players in the system in 2021.

 

#11 (+2) Carlos Rodriguez, OF, age 20

274 points - 23 of 27 ballots

Speed, batting average and defense are Rodriguez’s game. He is a slap hitter that hits for a high average, but his lack of power and willingness to swing at just about anything could limit his upside. Still, it’s hard to argue with a guy who has hit .327 thus far in his pro career.

 

#12 ( new ) Jefferson Quero, C, age 18

243 points - 21 of 27 ballots

Quero was signed out of Venezuela in 2019 - and has thus not made his professional debut. Scouts have praised his defense (cannon for an arm, plus blocking skills) - as well as his his hit tool.

 

#13 ( new ) Zavier Warren, C, age 22

222 points - 22 of 27 ballots

Warren played IF in college, but has been moved to catcher by the Brewers. He is a switch hitter with a strong arm and a good hit tool. Warren did struggle at the plate in 2020 when playing for an independent league team - however the Brewers were more concerned about acclimating to him to his new position

 

#14 (+3) Luis Medina, OF, age 18

217 points - 20 of 27 ballots

Only 18, Medina is one of the system’s most intriguing power bats. With his strong arm and plus power, he projects as a RF down the road.

 

#15 (+10) Micah Bello, OF, age 20

212 points - 25 of 27 ballots

Bello has has reportedly added some bulk to his thin frame, giving us hope that he will emerge as more than a light hitting defensive specialist. Could emerge as an exciting prospect.

 

#16 (-2) Max Lazar, RHSP, Age 21

204 points - 20 of 27 ballots

Lazar broke out in 2019 with some outstanding numbers at Wisconsin. He doesn’t throw hard, but has a plus changeup and good control. It will be exciting to see if Lazar can continue his success against better competition.

 

#17 (-2) Dylan File, RHSP, age 24

200 points - 22 of 27 ballots

Unfortunately, File - who showed great promise moving through the Brewer system in 2019 - will miss at least the first half of 2021 with a fractured elbow. Ideally, File will be able to return later this season, get into playing shape - and then be full steam for 2022.

 

#18 ( new ) Hayden Cantrelle, INF, age 22

179 points - 20 of 27 ballots

The Brewers 5th round draft pick in 2020, the switch-hitting Cantrelle projects as a good speed/field/OBP with little power infielder. He had a solid season playing in one of the temporary independent leagues last year.

 

#19 (-1) Payton Henry, C, age 23

164 points - 18 of 27 ballots

Catchers often take time to develop - and the Brewers hope that Henry ups his game in 2021. He has plus power and has become a good receiver. But he has a bit of a hole in his bat - limiting his hitting. And nothing will fix is below average speed.

 

#20 (+2) Alec Bettinger, RHSP, age 25

163 points - 17 of 27 ballots

A nice 2019 - and an increase in velocity on his pitches - vaulted Bettinger up the prospect rankings. Bettinger has succeeded by throwing strikes. While he has some elbow issues this spring, the Brewers expect him to be pithing soon. If he does well at AAA, he could make his MLB debut some time this year.

 

#21 (-12) Corey Ray, OF, age 26

159 points - 17 of 27 ballots

The clock in ticking for Ray. There has been little buzz surrounding him the past year - and thus his stock has plummeted in the prospect rankings. This may be the last go around for the highest Brewer draft pick in ages.

 

#22 ( new ) Jackson Chourio, SS, age 17

118 points - 13 of 27 ballots

One of the top 20 international prospects in 2020, Chourio has all the tools to be special. He has a tall, projectable frame, a good arm, plus speed and good hitting tools. Some scouts foresee him moving to outfield down the road - but the Brewers will keep him at SS for the time being.

 

#23 ( new ) Jesus Parra, 3B, age 18

107 points - 15 of 27 ballots

Young and strong and with room to bulk up on his 6’2” frame, Parra profiles as a power bat. While he lacks speed, Parra has a plus arm.

 

#24 ( new ) David Hamilton, INF, age 23

100 points - 12 of 27 ballots

Coming off an Achilles tendon injury, the Brewers snagged Hamilton in the 8th round in the 2019 draft with an above slot. Hamilton’s calling card is his speed and on-base skills. He did well playing in one of the temporary independent leagues set up during 2020’s pandemic.

 

#25 ( - ) Clayton Andrews, LHRP, age 24

91 points - 12 of 27 ballots

Who doesn’t like the idea of a crafty left handed reliever and speedy reserve outfielder? That’s what the Brewers have in Andrews - whose versatility offers him the chance to contribute in a unique fashion.

 

The rest

 

Zach Brown - 84 points

Tyrone Taylor - 76

Thomas Dillard - 67

Joe Gray - 63

Noah Zavolas - 47

Nick Bennett - 45

Phil Bickford - 40

Je’Von Ward - 34

Nick Kahle - 29

David Fry - 27

Bowden Francis - 27

Leo Crawford - 27

Cooper Hummel - 25 (1 1st place vote)

Abner Uribe - 22

Quintin Torres-Costa - 21

Scott Sunitsch - 20

Lun Zhao - 20

Justin Jarvis - 19

Weston Wilson - 19

Thomas Jankins - 19

Lucas Erceg - 16

Joey Wiemer - 15

Cam Devanney - 13

Pablo Abreu - 12

Jheremy Vargas - 10

Brandon Ramey - 10

Braden Webb - 9

Enersto Martinez - 9

Reese Olson - 9

Justin Topa - 9

Zach Green - 7

Ryan Aguilar - 7

Victor Castaneda - 6

Luke Barker - 6

Carlos Roa - 6

Alexis Ramirez - 5

Israel Puello - 5

Garbiel Garcia - 4

Korry Howell - 4

Gabe Holt - 4

JP Feyereisen - 3

Angel Perdoma - 3

Miguel Sanchez - 3

Nash Walters - 2

Felix Valerio - 2

 

Ages are as of 04/01/2021

 

Original voting thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=40258

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Thanks to everyone for participating in the latest version of our Top 25 Prospect Poll. It’s been a full year since the last poll, so there were a lot of changes.


Here are some numbers:

 

Exited Top 25: Rasmussen, Nottingham, Williams (graduated), Supek (released), Erceg, Dillard, Francis, Brown (dropped below 25)

Newcomers - Mitchell, Zamora, Quero, Warren, Cantrelle, Chourio, Parra, Hamilton

Number of ballots: 27

Number of players on ballots: 70

Mr. Irrelevant (1 vote, 1 point) - No one! Everyone got at least 2 points.

Biggest risers - Perez, Bello

Biggest drops - Ray

Likeliest to graduate by end of the year - Tough one - but I’ll guess Small.

Weirdest thing from poll: Copper Hummel got a 1st place vote. No one else listed him in their top 25.

 

Please know that all write ups are my own observations and opinions.

 

If you see any mistakes, please let me know.

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Observations from this year’s poll

 

- There’s been a lot of movement due to the year long wait between polls.

- The emergence of the Latin American players continues.

- The high placements of recent draft picks and international signings demonstrate who bereft the system was of high-end talent.

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Thanks again as always for putting this all together, reilly.

 

Only thing better than a dramatic comeback win on Opening Day is reading the new BF.net Top 25.

 

The Hedbert Perez helium makes sense to me, but the Micah Bello love definitely took me by surprise. Hopefully he can back up that confidence from the voters this summer.

 

The biggest difference from my personal list is Bettinger. The guys from 8-19 might have higher upside, but with Alec already having a full season of impressive age appropriate results at AA & a shot at cracking MLB this year, its hard for me to rank him below that grouping of guys, many of whom have yet to play a game of affiliated ball stateside.

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Cooper Hummel - 25 (1 1st place vote)

 

Lemme guess.

 

Errr, no guess needed, there could only be one.

 

I'll own it. I've liked the statistical numbers he's putting up. Reminds me a lot of Mickey Tettleton (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tettlmi01.shtml) as a switch-hitting C/OF with power and who draws tons of walks.

 

In 2019, the top three position players in wRC+ for the Brewers farm system were Hiura, Grisham, and Hummel.

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In 2019 Hiura was a 22 year old 2B posting that wRC+ at AAA & then MLB, Grisham was a 22 year old CF posting those numbers at AA/AAA. Both also had scouting reports which made them first round picks.

 

Sure, Hummel had a nice wRC+ in 2019, but he was a 24 year old LF in AA. If he posted that line playing catcher it would be much more impressive, but Cooper hasn't been behind the dish since 64 innings at A+ in 2018.

 

If Hummel somehow ends up being the best player in our farm system it will either be utterly miraculous or thoroughly depressing.

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With Bello, I am guessing a combination of reading the tea leaves and where he is on the list. He got plaudits for his play in instructs. Also, outside of a catcher (and they always bring a lot of catchers) the others on the initial early minor league spring training hitters list were all either likely AAA guys or top prospects.

 

When he got that invite, I moved him up five or six spots mostly because there were a lot of guys who I had ranked just about even in that area. I think that might be why he made the jump, once you get past the top 10-12 and the individual's favorites, there is a large group where all it takes is a bit of optimistic talk to stand out, and Bello has been getting some of that optimistic talk.

 

With Hummel, on the plus side he is getting listed as a catcher/outfielder, which seems to indicate the Brewers are going to get him some work behind the plate again (and being a decent emergency option behind the plate could give him a leg up to eventually get a 26th man spot on the roster). The downside, though, is that the Brewers aren't really treating him like a prospect (no alternate site invite last year or major league camp invite this year despite his AA numbers).

 

Otherwise, a couple of the recent draft picks feel a bit high, if the reports that he has made decent progress behind the plate are true, Dillard feels a bit low and while I didn't have them on my list either, I'm beginning to think there is a decent chance at least one of Perdomo and Feyereisen's vote total is going to look really low come season's end.

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With how important the bullpen has been for the Brewers I do find it interesting that bullpen guys like Topa, Bickford, Perdomo and Feyereisen don't get many votes. But then a guy like Andrew gets in at 25.
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Pretty good list. One more good draft and foreign signing period, and our list should be first rate. Mitchell is on his way to being a top 20 prospect. No, guys, we are not trading him for half a year of Trevor Story.

 

Small being ranked over Ashby looks a bit out of step. Right now, I think Ashby has surpassed Small but time will tell.

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With Hummel, on the plus side he is getting listed as a catcher/outfielder, which seems to indicate the Brewers are going to get him some work behind the plate again (and being a decent emergency option behind the plate could give him a leg up to eventually get a 26th man spot on the roster). The downside, though, is that the Brewers aren't really treating him like a prospect (no alternate site invite last year or major league camp invite this year despite his AA numbers).

 

Otherwise, a couple of the recent draft picks feel a bit high, if the reports that he has made decent progress behind the plate are true, Dillard feels a bit low and while I didn't have them on my list either, I'm beginning to think there is a decent chance at least one of Perdomo and Feyereisen's vote total is going to look really low come season's end.

 

I've always felt that Cooper Hummel was, in many ways, the position player equivalent of Brent Suter. He's not a high draft pick. He hasn't really stood out on prospect lists, but the numbers show he'll produce and contribute, and probably far better than some of those hyped on the prospect listings.

 

Part of it is seeing the high walk rate he's shown. Part of it is being a switch-hitter with some pop who can play multiple positions - again, I'll point to Tettleton - reasonably well. But what really has won me over was the November 2019 profile in BrewCrewBall. I think he adds one bonus in that he can take the mound in a blowout for an inning or two.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/11/25/20982116/milwaukee-brewers-cooper-hummel-prospect-interview

 

This is a guy who I think knows how to hit that way Brent Suter knows how to pitch. Not the flashiest tools, not the most hyped, but someone who can redeem an awfully bad draft year or be a huge bonus. Suter's the guy who kept the 2012 draft from being a total disaster - okay, Haniger did bring us Gerardo Parra, who brought us Zach Davies, and Tyrone Taylor could break out - but the 31st round pick is likely to be the star of that draft class.

 

Hummel, right now, could be an unexpected bonus in the 2016 draft. Corbin Burnes could be the best from that draft if he is a legitimate ace, Mario Feliciano and Payton Henry are two excellent catcher prospects, Corey Ray still could be a left-handed Keon Broxton, while Zack Brown, Thomas Jankins, and Braden Webb all could contribute to the Brewers pitching staff. But Hummel - and to another extent, Weston Wilson - could be huge contributors, too. Wilson has that Hernan Perez vibe (albeit he draws walks more) as a multi-position utility guy who can take the mound in a pinch.

 

I think the cancellation of the 2020 minor-league season has caused him to be more easily dismissed, but I think he's going to be a valuable contributor for the Brewers sometime in this season, or 2022. I just hope it's not a Mitch Haniger type of contribution.

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...... Corbin Burnes could be the best from that draft (2016) if he is a legitimate ace .....

 

Please clarify: were you meaning best Brewers pick for 2016 or the best overall talent coming from the 2016 draft???

 

As good as Burnes has been, he is still trailing other products from that same draft (2nd round pick Peter Alonso & 4th round pick Shane Bieber for example) & now a number of the HS bats from that draft (Alex Kirilloff, Gavin Lux, Brandon Marsh, etc) are finally starting to get their chance in the majors along with some others (5th round Cavan Biggio).

 

Other notable pitchers from the 2016 draft already in the majors (after quick review): AJ Puk, Dustin May, Aaron Civale, Jesus Luzardo, Zac Gallen & Zach Plesac.

 

Until all the careers are completed, it will be near impossible to say who was the best from that draft but becoming a legit ace as you put it would put Burnes in discussion for top 8 (if there was a post career redraft).

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...... Corbin Burnes could be the best from that draft (2016) if he is a legitimate ace .....

 

Please clarify: were you meaning best Brewers pick for 2016 or the best overall talent coming from the 2016 draft???

 

As good as Burnes has been, he is still trailing other products from that same draft (2nd round pick Peter Alonso & 4th round pick Shane Bieber for example) & now a number of the HS bats from that draft (Alex Kirilloff, Gavin Lux, Brandon Marsh, etc) are finally starting to get their chance in the majors along with some others (5th round Cavan Biggio).

 

Other notable pitchers from the 2016 draft already in the majors (after quick review): AJ Puk, Dustin May, Aaron Civale, Jesus Luzardo, Zac Gallen & Zach Plesac.

 

Until all the careers are completed, it will be near impossible to say who was the best from that draft but becoming a legit ace as you put it would put Burnes in discussion for top 8 (if there was a post career redraft).

 

Best Brewers pick, naturally.

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...... Corbin Burnes could be the best from that draft (2016) if he is a legitimate ace .....

 

Please clarify: were you meaning best Brewers pick for 2016 or the best overall talent coming from the 2016 draft???

 

As good as Burnes has been, he is still trailing other products from that same draft (2nd round pick Peter Alonso & 4th round pick Shane Bieber for example) & now a number of the HS bats from that draft (Alex Kirilloff, Gavin Lux, Brandon Marsh, etc) are finally starting to get their chance in the majors along with some others (5th round Cavan Biggio).

 

Other notable pitchers from the 2016 draft already in the majors (after quick review): AJ Puk, Dustin May, Aaron Civale, Jesus Luzardo, Zac Gallen & Zach Plesac.

 

Until all the careers are completed, it will be near impossible to say who was the best from that draft but becoming a legit ace as you put it would put Burnes in discussion for top 8 (if there was a post career redraft).

 

 

Seemed like he was obviously talking about just the Brewers draft as he listed only Brewers players.

 

But, even if you want to compare him to the entire draft class, the statement is still not outrageous. He COULD be the best IF he is a legitimate ace. He finished 6th in the Cy Young voting in the truncated 2020 season and he's as talented as any of those pitchers.

 

As for the placement of a 24 year old OF'er whom the Brewers didn't think highly enough to invite to the alternate site...I feel like some of these are just wild shots in the dark to just be the outlier.

 

I think Turang's #1, I understand people who think it's Mitchell, those who think it's Small or Ashby...but not Hummel.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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As for the placement of a 24 year old OF'er whom the Brewers didn't think highly enough to invite to the alternate site...I feel like some of these are just wild shots in the dark to just be the outlier.

 

Bingo. A few years back it was Cameron Roegner at #1.

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As for the placement of a 24 year old OF'er whom the Brewers didn't think highly enough to invite to the alternate site...I feel like some of these are just wild shots in the dark to just be the outlier.

 

Bingo. A few years back it was Cameron Roegner at #1.

 

The #1 ranking he had in the 2018 mid-season and post-season polls as well as the 2019 pre-season poll came after he posted dominating numbers that year. That preseason, my #1 vote went to Corbin Burnes, on those same grounds die to his dominance in 2017. Mid-season 2019 saw Trey Supak become #1, also on dominating performance, while Roegner dropped to 6 based on injuries, although he rebounded and looked good. Pre-season 2020 had Drew Rasmussen at #1, with Hummel at #2. For the former, it was the possibility the Brewers had a right-handed Josh Hader on their hands (which I still think is the case).

 

Cooper Hummel, in the five polls before pre-season 2020 in that timeframe, ranked 18th, 17th, 15th, 15th, and 16th. What made me re-evaluate Hummel, and jump him 14 spots in the pre-season 2020 poll and to take him up to 2021 was this article from BrewCrewBall, which not only noted his wRC+ was behind only Hiura and Grisham, but also provided some interesting material about :

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/11/25/20982116/milwaukee-brewers-cooper-hummel-prospect-interview

 

These are the paragraphs that won me over:

In 121 games for the Biloxi Shuckers of the Southern League, Hummel hit .249/.384/.450 (147 wRC+) while mashing a career-high 17 home runs, the first time he surpassed double-digit dingers in a single season. But unlike many other players who have experienced power surges in recent years, it wasn’t an attempt to join the “fly-ball revolution” that helped boost his power numbers. “I think the biggest adjustment I made was in my effort, and direction. I stopped trying to do too much and really tried to focus on staying up the middle. I think this helped me be more consistent barreling up the ball. Home runs are pleasant mistakes. For me, I like to think that they are line drives that I just missed.”

 

“As far as my belief fun things like launch angle and exit velocity, that goes much deeper than just the terminology. Every swing as a launch angle, and every swing has an exit velocity, if you make contact. Obviously as hitters we want to hit the ball hard, so exit velocity a great thing to look at to understand how consistently players are hitting balls hard. It can also help you determine what places in the zone you hit hard, and what pitches.”

 

“Launch angle, on the other hand, is something that I try not to look at as much. Launch angle is just a byproduct of where you hit the baseball. My biggest issue with people talking about launch angle is that when you’re teaching younger kids to hit the ball in the air because of a “better launch angle”, you aren’t actually teaching them how to hit. You’re just telling them to hit a pop up and a lot of people are dumping their barrel, which makes for an inefficient swing.”

 

With no minor-league season, I felt there was no reason to change who the top prospect was. But I think Hummel could provide Mickey Tettleton-type production for the Crew as soon as mid-2021, if not in 2022. And from the last two games, the Crew could use it!

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I devalued him a lot because of the Brewers’ actions I mentioned earlier - both because they would have a better grasp on his game than I do and because at some point the organization has to give him a chance to have value as a Brewers prospect, but I can understand the appeal of Hummel if you completely disregard those things. He was legitimately one of the best hitters in the Southern League in 2019, and it wasn’t like he was repeating the level either. I just can’t get past all the warning signs.
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I devalued him a lot because of the Brewers’ actions I mentioned earlier - both because they would have a better grasp on his game than I do and because at some point the organization has to give him a chance to have value as a Brewers prospect, but I can understand the appeal of Hummel if you completely disregard those things. He was legitimately one of the best hitters in the Southern League in 2019, and it wasn’t like he was repeating the level either. I just can’t get past all the warning signs.

 

There were two types of players that you'd have at the alternate site:

1. Folks who could step in immediately and help in a shortened season.

2. Prospects who teams had to monitor for continued development.

 

Some players who didn't fit those categories were loaned to independent leagues. Hummel, given his quotes in the article, was probably instead turned loose with a LOT of data/video/etc. I don't think that just because an organization didn't have players at the alternate site, they didn't try to figure out how to help those players develop as much as possible - even with a lost season of games.

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  • 2 weeks later...

...... Corbin Burnes could be the best from that draft (2016) if he is a legitimate ace .....

 

Please clarify: were you meaning best Brewers pick for 2016 or the best overall talent coming from the 2016 draft???

Could be the latter...

 

Just think if the Brewers would have drafted Shane Bieber in the 3rd round instead of Braden Webb.

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  • 1 month later...
Two related questions. With a lot of younger prospects were the Brewers able to get more development bang for their buck out of not having a normal season? Do we think the development of a number of these younger players with tools will improve the relative ranking of the system?
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Two related questions. With a lot of younger prospects were the Brewers able to get more development bang for their buck out of not having a normal season? Do we think the development of a number of these younger players with tools will improve the relative ranking of the system?

 

I think it makes some degree of intuitive sense that having a year geared more towards development in a more static location during the pandemic, instead of playing games & trying to get results while riding all over in buses & whatnot like normal, could be more beneficial to guys whose baseball skills might have been lagging behind their tools. Or it could be totally random.

 

As far as the relative ranking, I think we'll need more time to tell. After whatever happens the rest of the summer between minor league performance, the draft & deadline deals we should have a better idea. Another thing that should help is we don't really project to have any notable graduates dropping off the top of the list outside of Ashby.

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