Mets extend Lindor - 10 years/341 million

[adambr2]

Limited no-trade clause, no opt outs.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/mets-to-extend-francisco-lindor.html

[brewcrewdue80]

See this deal aging awful. What does he have to provide yearly WAR avg to be worth this deal? 5? 5.5? His bat isnt elite. Defense rarely ages well. Look at Elvis Andrus at less than half the avg annual. 2WAR and falling. Traded and sent money to so while 2WAR at 15mil. Mets found their next David Wright. Contract will keep them from building winning squads in next 4-5seasons.

[wallus]

Woof. Beat Tatis by 1 million.

[clancyphile]

See this deal aging awful. What does he have to provide yearly WAR avg to be worth this deal? 5? 5.5? His bat isnt elite. Defense rarely ages well. Look at Elvis Andrus at less than half the avg annual. 2WAR and falling. Traded and sent money to so while 2WAR at 15mil. Mets found their next David Wright. Contract will keep them from building winning squads in next 4-5seasons.

 

For the first five years, this is not a bad deal, especially if the Mets make two to three real World Series runs.

 

It's the last five that will be a killer, if he either has to move to third or first or if the offense fades.

 

It'd be like signing Prince Fielder to a ten-year, $150 million extension prior to the 2011 season. Having him probably does tip the Brewers a little better early on. Maybe there's playoff appearances in 2012 and 2014.

 

But his neck injury is a question. Does it happen in Milwaukee? Or does that get butterflied away?

[Eye Black]

See this deal aging awful.

Mets owner Steve Cohen reportedly lost a billion dollars bailing out his friends in the Game Stop saga, and has nearly twice the wealth of the next closest MLB team ownership (his net worth is allegedly between $14-$15 billion). I don’t imagine he’s overly worried about how the contract ages.

[clancyphile]

See this deal aging awful.

Mets owner Steve Cohen reportedly lost a billion dollars bailing out his friends in the Game Stop saga, and has nearly twice the wealth of the next closest MLB team ownership (his net worth is allegedly between $14-$15 billion). I don’t imagine he’s overly worried about how the contract ages.

 

For him, a 2021 World Series trophy is worth it. With DeGrom around until 2024, he may get one or two more, especially if Stroman and/or Thor re-sign.

[Jopal78]

The good news is Javy Baez probably will be gone from the division if the going rate for super star shortstops is now 30+ million AAV.

[MrTPlush]

See this deal aging awful.

Mets owner Steve Cohen reportedly lost a billion dollars bailing out his friends in the Game Stop saga, and has nearly twice the wealth of the next closest MLB team ownership (his net worth is allegedly between $14-$15 billion). I don’t imagine he’s overly worried about how the contract ages.

 

For him, a 2021 World Series trophy is worth it. With DeGrom around until 2024, he may get one or two more, especially if Stroman and/or Thor re-sign.

 

If only money spent and having the best team actually equated to World Series wins.

 

He will probably win a World Series that way, just like the Dodgers finally did, but that is the beauty of having so much money your baseball team is a toy...not a business. Very few owners in baseball can even operate that way and the ones that can almost always opt to have some kind of realistic profitable business model.

[monty57]

If only money spent and having the best team actually equated to World Series wins.

 

He will probably win a World Series that way, just like the Dodgers finally did, but that is the beauty of having so much money your baseball team is a toy...not a business. Very few owners in baseball can even operate that way and the ones that can almost always opt to have some kind of realistic profitable business model.

 

The Dodgers didn't get their win solely by spending the most money. They brought in a GM that routinely beat the Yankees and Red Sox with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and they built a strong farm which produced a large portion of their current roster (Seager, Bellinger, Beuler, Kershaw, etc). That was after the "Magic Johnson group" bought the Dodgers and threw money at big name players only to see that strategy fall flat. As long as Friedman is the GM, the Dodgers will be a force.

 

Time will tell if Cohen believes in building a strong farm and building from within. Trying to spend your way to a World Series victory rarely turns out well. The Mets have some talent at the MLB level, so there may be a short-term bump that could lead to a WS, but if he doesn't believe in a strong farm, I doubt it will lead to long-term success.

[JosephC]

I'm a huge fan of Lindor, but when looking at the numbers, is he a 34+ million player per season over this length of time?

 

Lindor bWAR = 2017=5.7 // 2018=7.2 // 2019=4.8 // 2020 (pro-rated to a full season) = 3.2

Lindor fWAR = 2017=5.7 // 2018=7.7 // 2019=4.5 // 2020 (pro-rated for a full season) = 4.9

 

Over the last four seasons he's an average 5.5 WAR player. I felt it necessary to add the fourth year because of last year's abnormal status.

 

So let's look at Mookie Betts during the three seasons prior to signing his big contract.

 

Betts bWAR = 2017=6.4 // 2018=10.7 // 2019=7.3

Betts fWAR = 2017=5.3 // 2019=10.4 // 2019=6.6

On average, a 7.8 WAR player. That's a significant difference between him and Lindor. No significant difference in age either, last year was Betts age 27 season and this upcoming year will be Lindor's age 27 season.

 

Lindor is closer to the Anthony Rendon level of player (3 seasons prior to signing his deal was 2017-2019)-

Rendon bWAR = 2017=6.1 // 2018=5.1 // 2019=7.2

Rendon fWAR = 2017=6.7 // 2018=6.2 // 2019=7.0

On average, a 6.4 WAR player, nearly a full win higher than Lindor. There is a big difference here in that Rendon was going into his age 30 season whereas Lindor is only going into his age 27 season. So Rendon got 3 fewer years, but the yearly average value of Rendon's deal was just slightly higher (35 million per year).

 

I was really surprised when looking at these numbers. I just assumed there was Mike Trout, and then Lindor was in that 2nd class of players behind Trout that included players like Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. But the WAR values clearly show that Lindor is not in that group of players. In fact, when I go back and do the 4-year numbers on Cleveland's "other infielder," Jose Ramirez average WAR from 2017-2020 is 6.4, again nearly a full win higher than Lindor. 2021 will be Ramirez age 28 season.

[KeithStone53151]

The good news is Javy Baez probably will be gone from the division if the going rate for super star shortstops is now 30+ million AAV.

 

That or the Cubs pony up and pay him the 30+ mil, which means less money they can use to round out the rest of the roster. They do have a ton of payroll flexibility coming up considering they are losing virtually all their best players. It's a win either way...

[Jopal78]

 

If only money spent and having the best team actually equated to World Series wins.

 

He will probably win a World Series that way, just like the Dodgers finally did, but that is the beauty of having so much money your baseball team is a toy...not a business. Very few owners in baseball can even operate that way and the ones that can almost always opt to have some kind of realistic profitable business model.

 

That a professional sports team is some sort of "toy" for a billionaire is a fallacy. Take the Dodgers for example, they reportedly collected 185 million dollars in tickets receipts in 2019. Their TV Deal is worth 8+ billion dollars over 25 years which comes out to $325,000,000 dollars a year. Nobody knows for sure but that is a half-billion dollars of revenue a year from tickets and TV. A payroll of $250,000,0000 is easily doable without the members of the LLC having to throw personal finances into the pot.

 

The hedge fund guys that own these teams are not pumping their own personal cash into the teams on any large scale. It defeats the purpose of buying an MLB team: 1.) they're scarce, 2.) they never sell for less than they're bought for 3.) there's no risk they go out of business, or interfered with by government regulation, and 4.) even the small market ones generate piles of annual revenue. Frankly, winning a World Series might result in a short term boost in revenue, but winning a championship doesn't really make the asset more valuable.

[jerichoholicninja]

See this deal aging awful.

Mets owner Steve Cohen reportedly lost a billion dollars bailing out his friends in the Game Stop saga, and has nearly twice the wealth of the next closest MLB team ownership (his net worth is allegedly between $14-$15 billion). I don’t imagine he’s overly worried about how the contract ages.

 

This won't cost Steve a dollar out of his own pocketbook. It's still a terrible deal. I never really paid attention to Lindor until this offseason and I figured he was some amazing, surefire Hall of Fame player until I looked at his stats. He's had one great season and a bunch of really good ones. When his defense starts to drop off this will be one of the worst contracts in baseball.

[LincolnDD]

The Dodgers didn't get their win solely by spending the most money. They brought in a GM that routinely beat the Yankees and Red Sox with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and they built a strong farm which produced a large portion of their current roster (Seager, Bellinger, Beuler, Kershaw, etc). That was after the "Magic Johnson group" bought the Dodgers and threw money at big name players only to see that strategy fall flat. As long as Friedman is the GM, the Dodgers will be a force.

 

Time will tell if Cohen believes in building a strong farm and building from within. Trying to spend your way to a World Series victory rarely turns out well. The Mets have some talent at the MLB level, so there may be a short-term bump that could lead to a WS, but if he doesn't believe in a strong farm, I doubt it will lead to long-term success.

 

He reportedly does, or at least he's given lip service to it.

 

 

 

They're also dumping a ton of his money into a previously pathetic analytics department: https://theathletic.com/2485969/2021/03/30/a-pitching-powerhouse-inside-how-the-mets-aim-to-revamp-pitching-development-with-their-own-lab/

 

Short-term success may be a bigger issue, depending on what things look like after the new CBA (luxury tax penalties?). Per MLBTR, Conforto, Stroman and Syndergaard are all free agents after the season, and they don't have the upper minors depth to cheaply replace those guys if they leave.

[MrTPlush]

 

If only money spent and having the best team actually equated to World Series wins.

 

He will probably win a World Series that way, just like the Dodgers finally did, but that is the beauty of having so much money your baseball team is a toy...not a business. Very few owners in baseball can even operate that way and the ones that can almost always opt to have some kind of realistic profitable business model.

 

That a professional sports team is some sort of "toy" for a billionaire is a fallacy. Take the Dodgers for example, they reportedly collected 185 million dollars in tickets receipts in 2019. Their TV Deal is worth 8+ billion dollars over 25 years which comes out to $325,000,000 dollars a year. Nobody knows for sure but that is a half-billion dollars of revenue a year from tickets and TV. A payroll of $250,000,0000 is easily doable without the members of the LLC having to throw personal finances into the pot.

 

The hedge fund guys that own these teams are not pumping their own personal cash into the teams on any large scale. It defeats the purpose of buying an MLB team: 1.) they're scarce, 2.) they never sell for less than they're bought for 3.) there's no risk they go out of business, or interfered with by government regulation, and 4.) even the small market ones generate piles of annual revenue. Frankly, winning a World Series might result in a short term boost in revenue, but winning a championship doesn't really make the asset more valuable.

 

 

Cohen will sacrifices millions more per year than any other owner in his position of owning the Mets would by a long shot. That was the point.

[SeaBass]

Once again highlighting the Brewers' good fortune that circumstances led to them getting Yelich for around $200 million.

[owbc]

New owner trying to make a splash. Attanasio learned his lesson after Garza and Cohen will learn from this one as well. Or he’ll get his ring and nobody will care what they are paying Lindor after that.

[jerichoholicninja]

Why should winning a title matter? Would people here be forgiving about Braun's last contract if the Brewers won a World Series during it? I doubt it.