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2021 NL Central Projections

RollieTime

By RollieTime,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

Eye Black GOAT

Eye Black

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…is that to make or win the WS?

Believe it or not those are the odds to win the World Series.

 

According to PECOTA only two teams in baseball have higher current odds to win the World Series, the Dodgers (17.5%) and the Astros (16.2%). The only other teams above 6% are the Mets (8.8%), Padres (8.3%), and White Sox (7.8%).

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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The Brewers currently sit at 56-39 on the season. They have 67 games remaining. If the Brewers play .500ish ball the rest of the season (34-33) they would finish with 90 wins on the season.

 

For the Reds (48-45) to catch them, they would need to win 42 of their last 69 games (.609).

 

For the Cubs and Cards (46-47) to catch them, they would need to win 44 of their last 69 games (.638).

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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The Brewers playoff odds have hit a season high 92.6%, per fangraphs.

 

The Reds jumped their odds up to almost 25% with their play in the first half of July, but their first three games after the break have aided into cratering them to 11.4% odds.

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jjfanec ACL Brewers

jjfanec

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The Brewers currently sit at 56-39 on the season. They have 67 games remaining. If the Brewers play .500ish ball the rest of the season (34-33) they would finish with 90 wins on the season.

 

For the Reds (48-45) to catch them, they would need to win 42 of their last 69 games (.609).

 

For the Cubs and Cards (46-47) to catch them, they would need to win 44 of their last 69 games (.638).

 

The Cardinals are the only team with a lot of games left vs the Crew. The Reds have just 3 and the Cubs have 7. The Cardinals have 13 including 10 of the last 24 games. That makes it very hard for the Reds and Cubs to make up that much ground.

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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Odds this team can beat the 2011/2018 teams 96 wins?

 

Don’t have the odds but they’d need to win 41 of their last 67 games (.612). Would need to pick up the pace a bit down the stretch. I’m sure a lot would be determined by the teams they play and who is actually trying to win games at that point.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

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Odds this team can beat the 2011/2018 teams 96 wins?

 

Projections currently have the Brewers finishing between 92-93 wins.

 

So another 4-5 wins on top of that over the remaining 67 games would probably be a top 10% outcome in terms of probability distribution.

 

What the projections don't know yet, though, is that the Brewers will almost certainly add pieces at the deadline while the Cubs for sure & maybe even the Reds/Cardinals could end up selling off some pieces, none of which will impact the math until it actually happens.

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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Odds this team can beat the 2011/2018 teams 96 wins?

 

I would take the under, seems likely a lot of teams they play will be in thick races. Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies, etc. make up a big chunk of our September schedule. Cardinals would be another annoying thorn if they are still in the fringe going into the last few weeks. I am sure the odds of this will be answered in the next month with 11 games against the pirates/Royals. They also have 4 games against the Cubs in the span after the end of July when they sell off...that could also be an important series. If we are going to flirt with 100 wins we probably have to take care of business against the last run of scrub opponents.

 

While the last month or so of the season doesn't feature much for elite teams, it also doesn't really feature terrible ones either.

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SRB First Round Pick

SRB

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Odds this team can beat the 2011/2018 teams 96 wins?

 

I'm sure this is jinxing things, but it is not outlandish that (1) our pitching stays dominant; (2) Yelich wakes up and goes into MVP mode at some point.

 

Can you imagine this rotation plus MVP Yelich?

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monty57 ACL Brewers

monty57

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Odds this team can beat the 2011/2018 teams 96 wins?

 

They have a .589 win % right now, and 162 x .589 = 95.42 wins.

 

Of course, that doesn't take strength of schedule into things, but they're on pace to be close.

 

The Brewers need to make sure they (1) win their division; and (2) win less games than the NL West winner.

 

Exactly. The Brewers don't want to end up with the #1 seed in the NL, as the Wild Card winner will be San Diego, Los Angeles or San Francisco, while the #2 seed will end up getting home field advantage against the winner from the East.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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