2021 NL Central Projections

[Jimbo]

I'm not going to predict the division, but just to go on record to say 87 wins for the Brewers. Additions of Wong and Bradley, a bounce back year for Narvaez.

[brewcrewdue80]

Those of you who are particularly bullish on the Brewers: What do you see as Woodruff's ceiling this year? I like him, but doesn't he need to go deeper in games? He has a lot of ~5-inning starts on his record, and even with analytics often telling me my eyes are wrong, I would like to see him go 7 innings and get through the lineup three times. Same with Burnes, of course. I guess I need to see more from both of them to have confidence with the starting pitching depth, because if they are not great, I'll be holding my breath a lot while watching.

 

I expect very little 7inning games. Those would only happen if Woodruff was around 80pitches or less heading in the 7th inning. Short season last year. Teams will he less willing to deep starts. He's a guy that has 34 games to start ahead of him plus playoffs. 6 innings average puts him over 200innings. I think you want him to only be in the 170s heading in to postseason or 5plus inning average. Same is going to be true for everyone behind him not named Brett Anderson.

Rasmussen, Suter, Lindblom are going to have their share of 3inning bullpen relief on games when the 1IP relievers need a break or game is out of control one way or another.

[wildcat83]

NL CENTRAL

 

Rookie of the Year - No One

With Yelich, Cain, Bradley and Garcia in the OF, Hiura, Vogelbach, Wong, Urias, Arcia, Shaw and Robertson on the IF and Narvaez and Pina at C, the need for a rookie on offense should be limited.

 

With the rotation and depth of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Anderson, Linblom, Suter and Rasmussen, and Hader and Williams in the end game, need for rookies will hopefully be limited there as well.

 

If pushed, I will say I anticipate Rasmussen, who I believe is no longer a rookie, to take the leap and become the next Brewer reliever phenom.

 

I think Devin Williams and Rasmussen would still qualify this year. I thought the cutoff was 130 AB or 50 IP which they are both under.

 

EDIT: Actually probably not. They can't be over 45 days on the active roster in a previous year(s). That requirement they are probably over, but I have no clue how to find that.

[djoctagone]

NL CENTRAL

 

Rookie of the Year - No One

 

I think Devin Williams and Rasmussen would still qualify this year. I thought the cutoff was 130 AB or 50 IP which they are both under.

you might have missed this thread, or missed the cover of this year's media guide.

[adambr2]

Brewers - 93-69

Cubs - 82-80

Cardinals - 77-85 - They are massively overrated right now and are going to disappoint

Reds - 75-87

Pirates - 62-100

 

MVP: Yelich - He's primed for a HUGE season.

 

CY Young: Corbin Burnes. Last season's breakout wasn't a mirage. By the end of this season, people are going to be including his name in "legitimate ace" conversations. I think Burnes, Woody, Peralta and Houser are all going to be good this year, and starting pitching is going to be a huge strength.

 

Breakout: Avisail Garcia. He's gonna have one of his "good" years, and make it tough to not have him in the lineup every day.

 

Disappointment: Keston Hiura. There's just too much swing-and-miss in his game. He's gonna probably hit 30 HRs, but struggle to bat .230.

 

Under the radar player to watch: Daniel Robertson. He's basically Hernan Perez with plate discipline. I think he's a guy who will play more and more as the season progresses, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him holding down a permanent spot by the end of the season.

 

Rookie of the Year - Does Rasmussen still qualify for the Rookie of the Year award? I think he's going to play a big role this year. I'll go out of a limb and say Ashby is up by the midpoint of the summer, and has a similar impact to what Burnes did in 2018.

 

Most of your predictions seem pretty rational to me but I'm curious as to why you'd peg them at 77 wins and find them massively overrated. The Cardinals have only won less than 83 games one time since '99 -- they have a pretty established history of maintaining a very high floor, while not always the highest ceiling.

 

Most of their core from last year is back, they will get Hicks back in the pen, and they added Arenado to their lineup. Much as I'd love to see them lose 85 games it would take some awfully thick Brewer blue goggles for me to peg them under 500 and even not think they'll be in it with us til the last week or so.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brewers - 93-69

Cubs - 82-80

Cardinals - 77-85 - They are massively overrated right now and are going to disappoint

Reds - 75-87

Pirates - 62-100

 

MVP: Yelich - He's primed for a HUGE season.

 

CY Young: Corbin Burnes. Last season's breakout wasn't a mirage. By the end of this season, people are going to be including his name in "legitimate ace" conversations. I think Burnes, Woody, Peralta and Houser are all going to be good this year, and starting pitching is going to be a huge strength.

 

Breakout: Avisail Garcia. He's gonna have one of his "good" years, and make it tough to not have him in the lineup every day.

 

Disappointment: Keston Hiura. There's just too much swing-and-miss in his game. He's gonna probably hit 30 HRs, but struggle to bat .230.

 

Under the radar player to watch: Daniel Robertson. He's basically Hernan Perez with plate discipline. I think he's a guy who will play more and more as the season progresses, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him holding down a permanent spot by the end of the season.

 

Rookie of the Year - Does Rasmussen still qualify for the Rookie of the Year award? I think he's going to play a big role this year. I'll go out of a limb and say Ashby is up by the midpoint of the summer, and has a similar impact to what Burnes did in 2018.

 

Most of your predictions seem pretty rational to me but I'm curious as to why you'd peg them at 77 wins and find them massively overrated. The Cardinals have only won less than 83 games one time since '99 -- they have a pretty established history of maintaining a very high floor, while not always the highest ceiling.

 

Most of their core from last year is back, they will get Hicks back in the pen, and they added Arenado to their lineup. Much as I'd love to see them lose 85 games it would take some awfully thick Brewer blue goggles for me to peg them under 500 and even not think they'll be in it with us til the last week or so.

 

Yeah, Arenado is a solid bat, but other than Arenado and Goldschmidt, there is no one in that projected lineup that is scary. In fact, that OF might be one of the worst in the majors. And other than Flaherty, the rotation isn't really anything to write home about. They are going to need their young guys like O'Neill and Carlson to really step up to score any runs. I don't think DeJong and Edman are anything great, and other than some clutch hits here and there, Molina will be below average. Hicks is a question mark coming off Tommy John and missing all of last year.

 

But you did peg me a bit. I'm just sick of a Cardinals, and perhaps somewhat illogically just want them to be done being a good team for awhile.

[Underachiever]

 

 

But you did peg me a bit. I'm just sick of the Cardinals, and perhaps somewhat illogically just want them to be done being a good team for awhile.

You had me at "sick of the Cardinals." That's all you had to say!

[Jopal78]

The good news for Brewer fans is 3/5's of their starting rotation (Kwang Hyun Kim, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas) are on the IL to begin the year. That's asking for a lot of innings from John Gant who was a reliever and Daniel Ponce De Leon who has topped 100 innings in a year twice since turning pro in 2015. Then removing Gant and Carlos Martinez from the pen and Hicks coming back from TJ surgery they will be relying a lot Gallegos, Cabrera and Andrew Miller for a lot of innings early.

 

The bad news is they seemingly have some player every year who comes out of nowhere to be a huge force for them like DeJong in '17, Carpenter in '18 and Erdman in '19 etc. I get the feeling someone like Tyler O'Neill will come out and put up an OPS of .850 and really tie the lineup together, and Wainwright will keep up his little twilight tear he's been on since the start of 2020.

[pacopete4]

NL Central Standings:

 

Brewers: 88-74

Cardinals 86-76

Cubs: 83-79

Reds 80-82

Pirates 70-92

 

Most Valuable Player: Yelich- He looked normal this spring and hoping he has a bounce back season.

 

Cy Young: Burnes- Takes the step to be the TOR pitcher he looks to be.

 

Most Surpringing Player: Garcia- Dropping the weight and becoming more athletic will only help his game.

 

Most Disappointing Player: Houser- He will continue to be pushed into the rotation and his contributions to the team will not be maximized.

 

Under the Radar Player to Watch: Narvaez- he’s a good hitter and he will hit this season.

 

Rookie of the Year: Ashby- Shot in the dark here as there are no real good candidates for this award. Does Urias count? I don’t know...

[stalton]

NL Central Standings:

 

Brewers: 86-76

Cardinals 86-76

Cubs: 82-80

Reds 81-81

Pirates 70-92

 

Brewers win Game 163 in St Louis

[brewtank34]

I really don't know why the C word that stems from St. Louis is allowed in this forum. In my house, that word is forbidden and is considered a swear word. No joke. I propose the moderators do the same in this forum. Red birds seems more appropriate.

[Lathund]

NL Central Standings:

 

Brewers 89-73

Cardinals 84-78

Cubs 82-80

Reds 80-82

Pirates 70-92

 

Most Valuable Player: Christian Yelich will be close to 2018-2019 Yelich.

 

Cy Young: Brandon Woodruff. I'm a big believer in Burnes and Peralta as well, but I just think Woodruff will take it much thanks to consistency and a higher workload.

 

Most Surpringing Player: Luis Urias will put up a 3-4 WAR season thanks to above average offense and average defense at SS. That'll be more than Trent Grisham does.

 

Most Disappointing Player: Jackie Bradley Jr. Will put up his usual good defense, but will be overshadowed by Cain on both offense and defense, and by Garcia offensively. Won't be great, won't be terrible. Just not what we had hoped for.

 

Under the Radar Player to Watch: Daniel Robertson. Will have displaced Arcia as the primary SS backup and 3B platoon partner relatively early on. .250/.360./400 with adequate defense.

 

Rookie of the Year: J.P Feyereisen will be one of the better middle relievers in the league, and will be part of the Williams-Hader shutdown train when leading.

[timpep]

NL Central Standings

 

Brewers 97-65

Cardinals 83-79

Reds 80-82

Cubs 80-82

Pirates 67-95

 

MVP: Yelich

 

Cy Young: Corbin Burnes

 

Surprise: Shaw and Lindblom both have very nice seasons

 

Biggest Disappointment: Arcia is going to be Arcia again which will be disappointing but not a surprise, Hader turns into "just a very good reliever" and people complain off and on all year about not trading him

 

Under the Radar Players: I'm going to say all of the starters that aren't Burnes and Woodruff. I think Houser silences some doubters, Peralta puts it together, Lindblom and Suter bounce between swingman and spot starter status and excel in both roles.

[Eye Black]

The predictions from OOTP 2022 (simulated 1,000 times using updated Opening Day rosters) have the Brewers winning the division, and apparently by a wide margin. They said the last playoff team and top non-playoff team in the NL were separated by 6 games. They didn’t specify, however, if maybe this is a case where both wild card teams had a better record than one of the division winners.

 

[MrTPlush]

I could see this Brewers team gelling and really racking up wins down the stretch. The pitching looks to be potentially great and the offense certainly has potential to be above average. I wouldn't bet on it...but I could see how it would simulate that way. However it mentions a 6 game gap between the Cardinals and the worst playoff team (Braves)...so how bad did it project us over the Cardinals? Not sure I would start projecting us to be over 6 games better than the next NL Central team.

 

A lot of it comes down to the 3-5 spots in the rotation. Our offense probably can't keep up if those guys underperform and become a revolving door. However, solid performances like we got in 2011 and that could really push this team to a lot of success.

[Eye Black]

The FanGraphs change in NL Central playoff odds after just one game seems a bit extreme, but who am I to complain.

 

[sveumrules]

Coming up on one third of the season played already & here's how the various projection systems think the NLC Division Odds stack up...

 

PECOTA: 43.8% MIL | 37.8% CHI | 16.9% STL

 

FanGraphs: 41.6% MIL | 28.6% STL | 25.0% CHI

 

FiveThirtyEight: 34% MIL | 32% STL | 30% CHI

[NYChez]

Unless the Giants falter, it’s likely winner take all for a single playoff spot.

[pacopete4]

It's June 1st. A lot can happen.

[wibadgers23]

Brewers are in 1st place alone and the Cardinals are in absolute free fall mode. I’m loving it.

[Jopal78]

Brewers are in 1st place alone and the Cardinals are in absolute free fall mode. I’m loving it.

 

With how Gomber has pitched you could almost say they would’ve been better off keeping him instead of acquiring Arenado (who is more likely to opt out if they’re a third place/fourth place team)

[Pugger]

Brewers are in 1st place alone and the Cardinals are in absolute free fall mode. I’m loving it.

 

This couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch!

[sveumrules]

Coming up on one third of the season played already & here's how the various projection systems think the NLC Division Odds stack up...

 

PECOTA: 43.8% MIL | 37.8% CHI | 16.9% STL

 

FanGraphs: 41.6% MIL | 28.6% STL | 25.0% CHI

 

FiveThirtyEight: 34% MIL | 32% STL | 30% CHI

 

Here's a NLC Division Odds update at the halfway point, now including Baseball Reference...

 

PECOTA: 67.9% MIL | 25.5% CHI | 6.0% CIN | 0.6% STL

 

FanGraphs: 85.1% MIL | 7.7% CHI | 4.9% CIN | 2.3% STL

 

FiveThirtyEight: 72% MIL | 18% CHI | 7% CIN | 3% STL

 

BRef: 78.4% MIL | 13.3% CHI | 7.5% CIN | 0.8% STL

[Eye Black]

PECOTA projections include rest of season player projections in their standings and playoff odds model (as of 7/1/21).

 

Lets just say PECOTA also really likes the Brewers chances (including 10% World Series odds)…

 

 

[PeaveyFury]

…is that to make or win the WS?