2021 NL Central Projections

[RollieTime]

With Opening Day quickly approaching, I thought it would be a good time to make a thread to discuss where we think the NL Central teams will finish in the 2021 season as well as discussions of how we think certain players will perform for the Brewers this season.

 

NL Central Standings:

 

Brewers 94-68

Cardinals 90-72

Reds 82-80

Cubs 80-82

Pirates 75-87

 

Most Valuable Player: Christian Yelich rebounds and puts up an MVP season once again after his rough 2020.

 

Cy Young: Brandon Woodruff continues to mature as a pitcher and finds himself in the top 5 for the NL Cy Young this season.

 

Most Surpringing Player: Omar Narvaez bounces back and has a .270/.350/.800 season while playing above average defense. He becomes a staple in the middle of the order.

 

Most Disappointing Player: Josh Hader has a “down” season. He will still be productive and pitch well, but won’t live up to the high bar that he has set the last few seasons.

 

Under the Radar Player to Watch: Freddy Peralta is still only 24 years old and with him becoming confident in his slider and adding that to the mix, he could become the next great arm to come up through the minors to put at the top of the rotation with Woodruff and Burnes. I expect great things from him this season.

 

Rookie of the Year: Alec Bettinger finds himself playing a significant role out of the Brewers pen the second half of the season and quickly becomes a high leverage arm used late in games with Hader and Williams.

[Octobercrew]

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS:

Brewers: 91-71

Cards: 90-72

Reds: 81-81

Cubs: 79-83

Pirates: 69-93

 

MVP: Yelich. Big bounce back year. Maybe not MVP level again but certainly best overall player.

 

CY Young: Burnes. Going to emerge as one of the best pitchers in the NL. Dark horse to win the real NL CY Young

 

Breakout: Garcia & Narvaez. Both have big bounce back years and help make the brewers a top 5 offense in the national league.

 

Disappointment: Cain and JBJ. Cain can't find a way to stay on the field and is only an average player when actually healthy. JBJ turns back to the sub .750 OPS player that he was pre COVID.

 

Under the radar player to watch: Luis Urias. I fully expect him to be the everyday SS by memorial day at the latest. Hit all the way through the minors, should translate to the majors when he actually gets consistent AB's and stays healthy.

 

Rookie of the Year: Justin Topa: I know he was up a little bit last year but he only threw 7 innings so I am gonna call him a rookie. I don't know if he makes the team out of camp but his stuff is absolutely nasty and I think he can be a great middle reliever than bridges the gap to Williams and Hader.

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers - 89-73

Cardinals - 85-77

Reds - 80-82

Cubs - 75-87

Pirates - 0-162 65-97

 

MVP: Yelich - this one is easy

 

CY Young: Burnes - expecting big things from this guy and his wicked arm.

 

Breakout: Hiura - I think the strikeout rate improves and we see 900 ops.

 

Disappointment: Shaw & Hader - I don't think they'll be overly disappointing, I think Shaw is around 680 ops with good defense...which is valuable just not what you want. I think Hader blows more games than usual and is more 3.5 ERA than sub 2 ERA.

 

Under the radar player to watch: Peralta & Turang. I think Peralta breaks out a bit this year and finally sticks in the rotation. He has enough weapons. On positional side, I think Turang has some shot at a callup in June/July. He got a couple hundred AB in high a at age 19 in 2019. Under normal circumstances, he probably would have opened in high A or AA in 2020 and closed the year in AA or AAA and would be talked about as a possibility to make the team this year. There's a real chance facing AAA/MLB pitchers and getting coaching from MLB caliber instructors at the alt training site last year actually sped up his development. If Urias/Arcia don't do enough on the field to earn the spot, and Turang looks good when the AAA season starts, I think it's certainly possible we see him and that he's exactly what we are looking for at the position.

 

Rookie of the Year - Turang if he gets the call. Outside of him I don't think we have a rookie that does enough to deserve a rookie of the year call.

[brewcrewdue80]

I will only predict the Pirates to win less than 67 games.

After that. I'll wait til Opening Day to list the other 4. She how healthy the teams are and what their rosters look like then.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wow, I thought I had opened the optimism thread by mistake.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wow, I thought I had opened the optimism thread by mistake.

 

Is it really that much of a stretch that people think this team is going to be solid this year?

[pacopete4]

The team can't be good if they don't make moves you agree with. Impossible.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers - 87-75

Cardinals - 84-78

Reds - 82-80

Cubs - 79-83

Pirates - 63-99

 

MVP: Yelich - I mean, who else? I expect him to still be notably below his MVP years...but he is still leaps and bounds better than any other hitter on the team.

 

CY Young: Brandon Woodruff...we will see how Burnes fares over a full season. For now I will take the safer option of the two. I am just happy this is a decent thing to debate and that both are such studs on the mound.

 

Breakout: Freddy Peralta, he eventually will put it all together. Whether that be in the pen or in the rotation. He doesn't have a ton of competition for this award.

 

Disappointment: Josh Hader. He will still be a top reliever, but the guy has been so good he can't really go up.

 

Under the radar player to watch: Ryan Braun, IF he finds himself on the team this year he could provide a nice spark to the team. Luis Urias could also be a Darkhorse contributor.

 

Rookie of the Year - Mario Feliciano...well, they ain't much in the pipeline that is an obvious potential 2021 contributor.

[RollieTime]

We were a .500 club with a horrible offense. Keston Hiura led the team in hits while hitting .212. I imagine we will have at least 7 players hitting better than that Hiura will hit his bombs even if he strikes out a ton. Yelich will absolutely rebound. Only one of Narvaez and Garcia needs to rebound and we are sitting pretty if both do. Even Arcia has never hit below .212 Cain and Bradley Jr. playing in 2021 is a big boost.

 

On the pitching side, you have arguably 2 of the top 5 relievers in the game. That doesn’t include the likes of Peralta, Suter, Rasmussen, Topa. Pair that with Woodruff and Burnes leading the rotation and Anderson being brought back with a top 5 defense in baseball behind him. I like our chances.

 

I think this team is extremely under rated. Our floor I think is basically a .500 team with a lot of room on the upside to be a great squad.

[Jopal78]

Sure is a bear market on the Cubs in this thread. They still have five really good hitters: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras and Happ. Kyle Hendricks is a top of the rotation starter and Zach Davies is a quality starting pitcher. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Arrieta are okay if unspectacular. There's some questions in their bullpen, but unless their hitters fall on their faces early and the break up the team, they have enough talent to compete for the division.

[Eye Black]

Sure is a bear market on the Cubs in this thread. They still have five really good hitters: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras and Happ. Kyle Hendricks is a top of the rotation starter and Zach Davies is a quality starting pitcher. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Arrieta are okay if unspectacular. There's some questions in their bullpen, but unless their hitters fall on their faces early and the break up the team, they have enough talent to compete for the division.

I think Joc Pederson is going to have a very good offensive season for them. No division in baseball has fewer left-handed starting pitchers than the NL Central, and the crossover for inter-league play is against the AL Central which is second lowest.

 

Projected Left-Handed Starting Pitchers by Division

AL East - 10

AL West - 9

NL West - 9

NL East - 8

AL Central - 7

NL Central - 5

 

 

As far as the wins predictions, it’s so difficult because the top four aren’t separated by all that much on paper. Avoiding injuries to key players will be an important factor as always. I’ll go with the following...

 

Brewers - 86

Reds - 84

Cubs - 84

Cardinals - 82

Pirates - 70

[wildcat83]

Brewers

Cardinals

Reds

Cubs

 

 

MVP Bat - Yelich

MVP Arm - Burnes

 

Garcia and Narvaez have redemption years.

Williams disappoints - Not because he's terrible, but more it's impossible to match what he did last year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sure is a bear market on the Cubs in this thread. They still have five really good hitters: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras and Happ. Kyle Hendricks is a top of the rotation starter and Zach Davies is a quality starting pitcher. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Arrieta are okay if unspectacular. There's some questions in their bullpen, but unless their hitters fall on their faces early and the break up the team, they have enough talent to compete for the division.

I think Joc Pederson is going to have a very good offensive season for them. No division in baseball has fewer left-handed starting pitchers than the NL Central, and the crossover for inter-league play is against the AL Central which is second lowest.

 

Projected Left-Handed Starting Pitchers by Division

AL East - 10

AL West - 9

NL West - 9

NL East - 8

AL Central - 7

NL Central - 5

 

Um. So can we speak on the FO acquiring LHBs? Wong, JBJ, Shaw genius? Keeping Vogelbach seems guarantee now. Think I just raised the Brewer win total in my mind 5 more games.

[Roderick]

Retaining the option to edit until opening pitch.

 

StL 86

Mil 85

Chic 81

Cinn 78

Pitt 69

[CheezWizHed]

Sure is a bear market on the Cubs in this thread. They still have five really good hitters: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras and Happ. Kyle Hendricks is a top of the rotation starter and Zach Davies is a quality starting pitcher. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Arrieta are okay if unspectacular. There's some questions in their bullpen, but unless their hitters fall on their faces early and the break up the team, they have enough talent to compete for the division.

 

[sarcasm]You expected people to be Pro-Cubs on a Brewer's forum?[/sarcasm]

 

3-4 years ago, that lineup and pitching rotation looked much better. I think there are just some weaknesses in the "armor" exposed now. Granted, it isn't like we don't have the same. But what fun is it to speculate we are going to be a one or 10 games behind the sCrubs?

 

I'll take the:

Brewers at 88

Cardinals - 86

Cubs - 81

Reds - 81

Pitt - 61

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Sure is a bear market on the Cubs in this thread. They still have five really good hitters: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras and Happ. Kyle Hendricks is a top of the rotation starter and Zach Davies is a quality starting pitcher. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Arrieta are okay if unspectacular. There's some questions in their bullpen, but unless their hitters fall on their faces early and the break up the team, they have enough talent to compete for the division.

 

[sarcasm]You expected people to be Pro-Cubs on a Brewer's forum?[/sarcasm]

 

3-4 years ago, that lineup and pitching rotation looked much better. I think there are just some weaknesses in the "armor" exposed now. Granted, it isn't like we don't have the same. But what fun is it to speculate we are going to be a one or 10 games behind the sCrubs?

 

I'll take the:

Brewers at 88

Cardinals - 86

Cubs - 81

Reds - 81

Pitt - 61

 

Hopefully they keep trotting Kimbrel out there to end games!

[sveumrules]

The ATC projected win totals were released today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atc-2021-projected-standings-and-playoff-odds/

 

Looks like that particular computer has the NLC shaking out something like...

 

MIL 85

CIN 80

STL 76

CHI 75

PIT 65

 

Would definitely take that outcome.

[Thurston Fluff]

I'm always overly optimistic so I try not to get into predictions. I will say this season I'm more confident than usual. More than just adequate pitching depth is such an unusual feeling for a Brewer fan.

[RobDeer 45]

Cardinals - 91-71

Brewers - 88-74 - make the playoffs

Cubs - 82-80

Reds - 79-83

Pirates - 65-97

 

 

MVP: Yelich - I think he gets back to being himself and that's the most valuable player on our team.

 

CY Young: Brandon Woodruff - I think he will be a horse this year. I think Burnes has a very good year too, but won't be as consistent as Woody.

 

Breakout: Luis Urias - I think he will be really good all around and we will have a very consistent player at SS.

 

Disappointment: Devin Williams - I hope I'm wrong on this but I'm just worried about him having more shoulder issues. Combine that with a ridiculous year last year and I just don't know if he repeats. I just knocked on wood too!

 

Under the radar player to watch: Omar Narvaez - I think he comes back to being a good offensive catcher this year. Does that count as under the radar?

 

Rookie of the Year - Tim Dillard in the booth! I think he will bring a lot to the booth for the pre and post game shows. I think it will feel more upbeat and modern with some younger blood in there. I hope it goes well! My way out there prediction, he does really well, and when Uecker retires, he takes his spot. One funny baseball player hands off the torch to another. Ok I don't really think that could happen but let's see how he does on tv this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brewers - 93-69

Cubs - 82-80

Cardinals - 77-85 - They are massively overrated right now and are going to disappoint

Reds - 75-87

Pirates - 62-100

 

MVP: Yelich - He's primed for a HUGE season.

 

CY Young: Corbin Burnes. Last season's breakout wasn't a mirage. By the end of this season, people are going to be including his name in "legitimate ace" conversations. I think Burnes, Woody, Peralta and Houser are all going to be good this year, and starting pitching is going to be a huge strength.

 

Breakout: Avisail Garcia. He's gonna have one of his "good" years, and make it tough to not have him in the lineup every day.

 

Disappointment: Keston Hiura. There's just too much swing-and-miss in his game. He's gonna probably hit 30 HRs, but struggle to bat .230.

 

Under the radar player to watch: Daniel Robertson. He's basically Hernan Perez with plate discipline. I think he's a guy who will play more and more as the season progresses, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him holding down a permanent spot by the end of the season.

 

Rookie of the Year - Does Rasmussen still qualify for the Rookie of the Year award? I think he's going to play a big role this year. I'll go out of a limb and say Ashby is up by the midpoint of the summer, and has a similar impact to what Burnes did in 2018.

[KeithStone53151]

Sure is a bear market on the Cubs in this thread. They still have five really good hitters: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras and Happ. Kyle Hendricks is a top of the rotation starter and Zach Davies is a quality starting pitcher. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Arrieta are okay if unspectacular. There's some questions in their bullpen, but unless their hitters fall on their faces early and the break up the team, they have enough talent to compete for the division.

 

The starting pitching dropoff to what they've had the last few years to what they have currently is staggering. You said it yourself, Zach Davies is their number 2. And yeah he's not bad, but him as the number 2 says a lot about what's behind him. And the bullpen really isn't any better. It's possible the defense really helps the pitching look good, remains to be seen. There should be a lot of scoring in Chicago.

 

And part of my projection is based on them deciding to sell at the deadline. The Cubs probably have the most volatility of any team in the division based on how the first half goes. They could of course just outscore teams like crazy and trade for pitching at the deadline and potentially go for 100 wins. They could also get off to a slow start, be 6-7 games below 500 at the deadline, and trade a couple star players and be really bad. I almost feel like projecting 75 wins is too high, I feel like most of their potential outcomes are 72 or less wins...or 85 or more wins.

[Underachiever]

Those of you who are particularly bullish on the Brewers: What do you see as Woodruff's ceiling this year? I like him, but doesn't he need to go deeper in games? He has a lot of ~5-inning starts on his record, and even with analytics often telling me my eyes are wrong, I would like to see him go 7 innings and get through the lineup three times. Same with Burnes, of course. I guess I need to see more from both of them to have confidence with the starting pitching depth, because if they are not great, I'll be holding my breath a lot while watching.

[Jopal78]

It will be intriguing to see what happens with the Cubs. They literally have half their major league team heading towards free agency. With that many players close to leaving, and without appearing they close to signing any of their core players to an extension; there probably won’t be major reinforcements coming at the deadline. If their pitching is even average pitching along with the best hitting line up in the division, I’d put my money on them for first place.

[Warning Track Power]

NL CENTRAL

Brewers - 87-75

Cardinals - 83-79

Reds - 75-87

Cubs - 74-88

Pirates - 60-102

 

Brewers surprise in the NLDS and upset the NL East winner (Mets if they sign Lindor, Braves if Lindor isn't extended) before losing to the Dodgers in the NLCS.

 

Brewers are just a little bit better in the rotation and bullpen to pull away from the Cardinals in the last two weeks of the season.

 

Reds have the O and are competitive through the first half but end up dealing Gray and maybe Castillo at the deadline allowing them to fade in the second half.

 

Cubs have the talent to compete but have a miserable season due to impending FA and lack of extensions with Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez.

 

MVP - Christian Yelich:

Returns to form and has the year of his career. Thinking: .330, 50 HR, 110 RBI, 25 SB and another MVP

 

Cy Young - Corbin Burnes

Burnes becomes what we all hoped he would be and pitches to a 18 win season, with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Woodruff is no slouch either but slots in a pinch below Burnes.

 

Breakout - Luis Urias

Urias becomes a Wong clone at SS, producing a .270 AVG/.340 OBP with 10 HRs and solid if unspectacular defense.

 

Disappointment- Keston Hiura

The holes in his swing remain and he hits .240. The power remains but at a lesser level (25-30 HR) but comes with close to 200 Ks and below-average D at 1B. By the end of the year, Milwaukee sports radio becomes dominated by comparisons to Khris Davis (power, strikeouts, and positionless) rather than the second coming of Ryan Braun (power, average, tolerable defense because of the offense).

 

Under the Radar Player to Watch - Travis Shaw

I think most fans, while rooting for him, expect him to fail miserably. I think he comes back to something close to what he was and produces a .250/.330, 22 HR, 70 RBI season. More than acceptable production given what expectations are.

 

Rookie of the Year - No One

With Yelich, Cain, Bradley and Garcia in the OF, Hiura, Vogelbach, Wong, Urias, Arcia, Shaw and Robertson on the IF and Narvaez and Pina at C, the need for a rookie on offense should be limited.

 

With the rotation and depth of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Anderson, Linblom, Suter and Rasmussen, and Hader and Williams in the end game, need for rookies will hopefully be limited there as well.

 

If pushed, I will say I anticipate Rasmussen, who I believe is no longer a rookie, to take the leap and become the next Brewer reliever phenom.

[brewtank34]

1) Brewers 90-72

2) Reds 87-75

3) Red birds 86-76

4) Cubs 79-83

5) Pirates 59-103

 

MVP: Yelich

Cy Young: Corbin Burnes.

Breakout: Urias

Disappointment: Shaw