Brewers sign Jackie Bradley Jr. (2-year/$24M with player option after first year.)

[Warning Track Power]

If you were to wager on which of our starting OFers was most likely to not reach their career numbers and/or have an injury prone year, which one would you choose?

 

Cain - Age 35 - 288/348/418

Yeli - Age 29 - 296/381/488

Garcia - Age 29 - 271/324/472

 

 

I know we have been hammering the point all offseason, but man if the Brewers O just plays to career averages this team could be in very good shape to make the postseason for a fourth straight year. I think we would all sign up for the above numbers in 2021 right now if given the chance.

[RollieTime]

Yuck, $6.5 million buyout for next season?

 

Which combined with his $6.5 base salary for this year makes for a total guarantee of $13 million, which I believe was reported previously. It's just a way for the Brewers to kick the can down the road to a season when revenue has theoretically been returned to closer to normal levels.

 

Looks like $3 million is deferred too. So he’s only making $3.5 million this season I think? Not a fan of deferred money, but it makes sense. It’ll just suck next season when they have $10 million (guesstimate) in buyout money for the 2022 season on the books.

[wallus]

With the way that is setup, there is almost 0% chance he picks up next years option.

[MrTPlush]

I love deferred money. Just kick the can down the road until you have a stretch of time where it does matter and it slowly goes away. I am sure there is a percent of the payroll they put a cap on to be dead money like that. As long as you know what you are doing it is a very effective way for our low payroll to survive a bit higher in competing years. The down years with naturally low payrolls can handle the deferred money eventually.

[SeaBass]

Yes, Cain was injured during 2019. If you'll remember he had issues with his thumb which ultimately required him to get the same cryotherapy that Braun had done a few times for his thumb issue. Cain's 2nd half in 2019 saw a performance more in line with his career slash numbers. Still wasn't as great as his 2018 but it was more of a normal performance for him.

 

2019:

Pre-All Star break (83 games): .246/.309/.352/.660

Post-All Star break (65 games): .281/.350/.403/.752

 

Career:

.288/.348/.413/.761

 

I just keep seeing posts doubting Cain and, while the future for any aging player is always questionable, I think people focus on his season numbers from 2019 rather than looking closer and remembering his injuries. He still regressed and the thumb bothered him for "a little over a month" so it can't explain away all of his struggles but I think it's important to emphasize that his 2nd half showed evidence of him performing more normally and snapping out of his early season funk.

 

I like Cain, and hope he does great for us this year. My biggest concern is that he took last year off, and said the only exercise he got was chasing after his kids. Counsell is obviously concerned about the shape he's in, as he put him on a program that kept him out of games for the first week in order to get him in shape and ready for game action. Then, in that first week of training he pulled something in his leg, further delaying his progression.

 

These guys are professional athletes. I have doubts that Cain will be at his elite level this year. I hope I'm wrong, but it looks like he took a year off and got soft, and the Brewers are on the hook to pay him regardless of whether or not he gets back to "playing shape."

 

Meanwhile, Garcia shed 35 pounds and looks like a different person. At this point, I'm thinking that it will be Cain who loses the most playing time out of the trio of Bradley, Cain, and Garcia. Either way, I'm glad we have the extra depth.

 

Yes, this. It isn't bashing Cain, it is being realistic about his age, injury history, and taking a year off.

 

If you were to wager on which of our starting OFers was most likely to not reach their career numbers and/or have an injury prone year, which one would you choose?

 

Cain - Age 35 - 288/348/418

Yeli - Age 29 - 296/381/488

Garcia - Age 29 - 271/324/472

 

Cain is clearly the wild card because of age and time away. Signing JBJ is probably 50% Cain insurance, 25% 4th OFer (which means starting about 10% of games), 15% Garcia insurance/platoon-mate, 9% Yeli injury insurance, and 1% Yeli performance insurance. Either way it adds up to a good move, IMO.

I guess I need to pull a PeavyFury and say I never accused anyone of bashing Cain. I guess the guy that posted after me worded a response that way but I didn't. I was pointing out his injury since someone previously wondered if he had one that affected his performance in 2019, I also felt I was careful to leave room for concerns about age etc.

[brewerfan82]

With the way that is setup, there is almost 0% chance he picks up next years option.

Not necessarily. I thought that too at first, as it looks like basically year 1 ends up being $13M, which means year 2 is only $3M, but with the $8M buyout in the 3rd year, the 2nd year is really more like $11M. Now year 3 (a mutual option) he'd really only gain $4M, so it'd be hard to envision a situation where that one gets picked up by both sides (he'd have to be bad enough for him to take it, but also good enough for the Brewers to take it...).

 

Anyways, more simply it's really $13M year 1, $11M year 2 (player option), $4M year 3 (mutual option)

[JosephC]

With the way that is setup, there is almost 0% chance he picks up next years option.

 

I wouldn't say 0%, but would agree that it's pretty likely that he opts out after the 2021 season. He gets a 6.5 million buyout if he walks away. If he stay for 2022, he collects 9.5 million salary for that season plus the 8 million buyout for the 2023 season...so 17.5 million. So basically he will have the choice to play 2022 for an extra 11 million or he can pick free agency and try again for another multi-year deal. Isn't Scott Boras his agent? Really hard for me to believe that Boras would be content with what essentially becomes a 1 year, 11 million dollar deal for 2022. Seems like chances would be well north of 50% that Bradley takes the 6.5 million buyout and then looks for another multi-year deal next off-season.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I love deferred money. Just kick the can down the road until you have a stretch of time where it does matter and it slowly goes away. I am sure there is a percent of the payroll they put a cap on to be dead money like that. As long as you know what you are doing it is a very effective way for our low payroll to survive a bit higher in competing years. The down years with naturally low payrolls can handle the deferred money eventually.

 

Unless Stearns and Company never have a down year

[markedman5]

I love deferred money. Just kick the can down the road until you have a stretch of time where it does matter and it slowly goes away. I am sure there is a percent of the payroll they put a cap on to be dead money like that. As long as you know what you are doing it is a very effective way for our low payroll to survive a bit higher in competing years. The down years with naturally low payrolls can handle the deferred money eventually.

 

Agreed......Of all the worries that I have one of them is not questioning Attansio’s expertise in managing money.

 

I have extreme confidence that he understands exactly what he is doing in this area.

[TooLiveBrew]

My initial thoughts on the signing:

 

1. I have never seen a pitching and defense Milwaukee Brewers team and I am 38 years old.

 

2. I love the player culture the Brewers have developed recently. Everything you read about the team as constituted, but then the signings of high character guys like Wong and JBJ make this team easy to root for.

 

3. On the baseball side, I think this is Garcia's last year with the Brewers. Unless he comes out and hits .300 with 20 HR, I don't see his game profile as fitting with the team.

 

4. I doubt JBJ will live up to the offensive side of the deal in 2021 (say he hits .250, 15-20 HR) to warrant NOT exercising his end of the option. This will be 2 years at $24m.

 

5. The Brewers will either have two FA OF after 2021 (JBJ & Garcia) or three after 2022 (Cain, JBJ & Garcia). Regardless, they have positioned themselves well to possibly replace JBJ with Garcia if JBJ explodes in 2021.

 

6. The signing allows for the Brewers to continue to try and rebuild OF depth in the Minors via the draft or International Free Agency. By the time they will truly need more OF in 2023, hopefully Mitchell, Lutz, etc. are ready and the OF system has been somewhat rebuilt.

 

1. 1992 Brewers. So you were a kid. One of my 3 favorite Brewer teams. Edit for clarification: Brewers offense was pretty good, 5th in the AL in runs scored despite hitting a whopping 82 HR as a team (!). Different world. Pitching-wise 1st in ERA, 2nd in ERA+. Fielding hard to say. They were pretty good though from memory (FWIW). Above average.

 

 

I agree with everything else you said...good points.

For some reason the first thing I think of with the early 90's teams is that Bill Wegman videoscreen (as in, projector technology) batting cage at County Stadium. Definitely my childhood era.

 

When I was in grade school, one time in my dentist's waiting room I realized Tom Treblehorn was sitting there too. I chickened out on saying anything to him.

 

I like the add of Bradley. Seems like a good versatile player on a low risk deal. I agree with others, & like the idea of a 4-man OF rotation for a lot of reasons.

 

I do worry about our offense, & wonder if Stearns has anything up his sleeve for 3B.

[Roderick]

I love deferred money. Just kick the can down the road until you have a stretch of time where it does matter and it slowly goes away. I am sure there is a percent of the payroll they put a cap on to be dead money like that. As long as you know what you are doing it is a very effective way for our low payroll to survive a bit higher in competing years. The down years with naturally low payrolls can handle the deferred money eventually.

 

Agreed......Of all the worries that I have one of them is not questioning Attansio’s expertise in managing money.

 

I have extreme confidence that he understands exactly what he is doing in this area.

 

Interest rates are low, so the adjustment for time value of money probably isn't too much, but I wonder how much inflation for player wages and media revenue leak into the equation.

But, deferring money is a way for an agent to say he got his player $X amount of money, but realistically time value of money he got him somewhat less than $X amount of money. Plus it probably doesn't hurt to keep some money from some players (not saying anything about JBJ specifically, just some athletes have a hole in their pocket).

[djoctagone]

jackie bradley, jr. (right wrist soreness) expects to be in the starting lineup tomorrow. the club is optimistic that he'll be ready opening day.

[djoctagone]

in 41 plate appearances, jackie bradley, jr. has yet to draw a walk. he also leads the club with 16 strikeouts.

[nate82]

in 41 plate appearances, jackie bradley, jr. has yet to draw a walk. he also leads the club with 16 strikeouts.

 

He is also 2nd in hard% on the team at 47.8%. When he is hitting the ball they have been hit rather hard. I am fine with him not walking if he is squaring up on the ball when he is making contact.

[wntrtxn21]

in 41 plate appearances, jackie bradley, jr. has yet to draw a walk. he also leads the club with 16 strikeouts.

 

He is also 2nd in hard% on the team at 47.8%. When he is hitting the ball they have been hit rather hard. I am fine with him not walking if he is squaring up on the ball when he is making contact.

 

It's really early, but I would like to see a lot more contact. The hardhit% is nice, but if he is only making contact 60% of the time it leads to a .147/.194 line. However, now that Cain is hurt again, it sure is nice to have JBJ around.

[HiAndTight]

I love deferred money. Just kick the can down the road until you have a stretch of time where it does matter and it slowly goes away. I am sure there is a percent of the payroll they put a cap on to be dead money like that. As long as you know what you are doing it is a very effective way for our low payroll to survive a bit higher in competing years. The down years with naturally low payrolls can handle the deferred money eventually.

 

Agreed......Of all the worries that I have one of them is not questioning Attansio’s expertise in managing money.

 

I have extreme confidence that he understands exactly what he is doing in this area.

 

Interest rates are low, so the adjustment for time value of money probably isn't too much, but I wonder how much inflation for player wages and media revenue leak into the equation.

But, deferring money is a way for an agent to say he got his player $X amount of money, but realistically time value of money he got him somewhat less than $X amount of money. Plus it probably doesn't hurt to keep some money from some players (not saying anything about JBJ specifically, just some athletes have a hole in their pocket).

 

 

So the Wilpons must have REALLY cared about their players! How many players from the 80's and 90's are still getting big checks from them? Bonilla obviously, but I thought Straw was getting even more(per year, not for as many years). Saberhagen is 250, and I think DeGrom has a lot of deferred money coming.

[Jopal78]

Not just the Wilpon’s. I believe Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter (who last pitched in 1988) gets a 9.1 million dollar balloon payment this year as the last of the deferred money owed him for the contract he signed in 1985.

[Warning Track Power]

I like Bradley's game immensely. I think we all expected him to not be "elite" with the bat but could live with a .240-.250 AVG and .330-.340 OBP. Based on everything I read from Red Sox writers, he is prone to massive slumps and long hot streaks. It appears he has started with a massive slump. Patience must be had in this situation. Give him some time and history says he will get there.

 

It does make me wonder if he will opt into the second year of his contract regardless of how well he hits the rest of the year.

[Thurston Fluff]

When he got here the book on him was he was a feast or famine type of hitter. We have to learn to live with the down times with that type of hitter. It might be harder to do that when he's new here and we haven't seen the good times yet but given the type of hitter he is it was possible he'd start out on a cold streak. I'm not as worried about him as I am young players like Huira or Urias who don't have an established record of being a league average hitter. The good part about him is his defense is always there.

[Thurston Fluff]

I guess Warning Track Power beat me to it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like Bradley's game immensely. I think we all expected him to not be "elite" with the bat but could live with a .240-.250 AVG and .330-.340 OBP. Based on everything I read from Red Sox writers, he is prone to massive slumps and long hot streaks. It appears he has started with a massive slump. Patience must be had in this situation. Give him some time and history says he will get there.

 

It does make me wonder if he will opt into the second year of his contract regardless of how well he hits the rest of the year.

 

The guy has played his whole career facing predominantly AL East pitching. I think it stands to reason that there will be an adjustment period as he gets used to a whole new league and set of pitchers.

[MrTPlush]

I like Bradley's game immensely. I think we all expected him to not be "elite" with the bat but could live with a .240-.250 AVG and .330-.340 OBP. Based on everything I read from Red Sox writers, he is prone to massive slumps and long hot streaks. It appears he has started with a massive slump. Patience must be had in this situation. Give him some time and history says he will get there.

 

It does make me wonder if he will opt into the second year of his contract regardless of how well he hits the rest of the year.

 

The guy has played his whole career facing predominantly AL East pitching. I think it stands to reason that there will be an adjustment period as he gets used to a whole new league and set of pitchers.

 

Is there any truth to this? Just seems like a kinda lazy explanation to a players struggles. There is such a huge variance of pitchers you face every year. I looked through his splits the last few years and he had lots of success against some interleague teams and teams not in his division. Seems like something that would be hard to quantify and prove. Maybe true for some players struggles, but I don't think it is a good blanket statement to make.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like Bradley's game immensely. I think we all expected him to not be "elite" with the bat but could live with a .240-.250 AVG and .330-.340 OBP. Based on everything I read from Red Sox writers, he is prone to massive slumps and long hot streaks. It appears he has started with a massive slump. Patience must be had in this situation. Give him some time and history says he will get there.

 

It does make me wonder if he will opt into the second year of his contract regardless of how well he hits the rest of the year.

 

The guy has played his whole career facing predominantly AL East pitching. I think it stands to reason that there will be an adjustment period as he gets used to a whole new league and set of pitchers.

 

Is there any truth to this? Just seems like a kinda lazy explanation to a players struggles. There is such a huge variance of pitchers you face every year. I looked through his splits the last few years and he had lots of success against some interleague teams and teams not in his division. Seems like something that would be hard to quantify and prove. Maybe true for some players struggles, but I don't think it is a good blanket statement to make.

 

Lazy? Maybe. But it is also one that is constantly used when a player goes AL to NL, or vice versa.

 

But probably the more accurate opinion is that Bradley is and always has been a streaky hitter, and he's in a bit of a slump after signing late and an abbreviated Spring Training.

[SeaBass]

He has a current 5 game hit streak...

 

Hasn't drawn a single walk yet which I think is a big factor in his slump. His career stats don't show walks being a problem for him, so that's flukey. And his strikeouts seem elevated more than normal.

 

We were all pretty down on Urias not real long ago but in a handful of games he gets 2 big hits and draws some walks and now we kind of see how he can be a valuable player. JBJ could turn it around fairly quickly, maybe he's showing signs with the modest hit streak.

[RWeeksFan23]

Seems like he struggles big-time against breaking stuff. Ala Pedro Cerrano.