Jackie Bradley Jr.

[shanedog19]

I would personally rather see Bradley play on a daily basis than Garcia, but I'm probably in the minority on that. Curious how his power numbers would translate from the long porch in right at Fenway to the short porch at AFF. He's also had quite a bit of success in the postseason, which would be a bonus should we get back there this year.

[Warning Track Power]

With the type of player the Brewers are bringing in this offseason, Vogelbach is beginning to feel like a very square peg for a round hole. Wong, JBJ, Shaw, all very good defenders at their position. While you could make the argument about Hiura being a poor defender, an elite hitting prospect, even without a position, isn't going anywhere. If they bring back the DH, then maybe? But I have to think if the DH is brought back, Ryan Braun will be on the next plane to Maryvale.

 

Have to believe Big Dan is destined for a new team or for Triple AAA as depth.

[DR28]

[sarcasm]Well it's been like 4 hours, JBJ isnt signing with us.[/sarcasm]

[mtrebs]

They signed Shaw...if they wanted Gyorko he’d already be signed and in camp.

 

Probably true, although they would have held off on him until after Turner made his decision. Either way, I’d like to see Gyorko back. Was one one the bright spots of the 2020 team.

[PeaveyFury]

I doubt that Chapman is a realistic option but I would aim high.

 

So basically, you'll aim unrealistically high, not complete a trade as a result, and need to sign a guy like Bradley anyway?

 

How about suggesting a move that's actually feasible?

 

I suggested signing Yoenis Cespedes if he looks good in his workout.

 

Thanks, I did miss that. I do think it's a bit unfair to look at 2020 Brewer numbers and assuming that's a fair gauge of 2021 production, while at the same time thinking that signing a guy like Cespedes might fix the offense, when he has barely played baseball in three seasons. That seems a bit unreasonable to me and unfair to the players on the roster already who have a better track record of success than their 2020 numbers indicated.

[brewerfan82]

I would personally rather see Bradley play on a daily basis than Garcia, but I'm probably in the minority on that. Curious how his power numbers would translate from the long porch in right at Fenway to the short porch at AFF. He's also had quite a bit of success in the postseason, which would be a bonus should we get back there this year.

Take this with a huge grain of salt, but this is a fun tool even if I have some major questions about it:

 

2018-20 JBJ Home Game Spray Chart (overlaying AmFam Field):

 

 

Here's where I'm skeptical of this tool... Here's the same spray chart overlaying Fenway:

 

 

A lot of those doubles to left field can be explained by bouncing off the Green Monster, but there are some shots to right field that look like they should have been gone, but were outs or doubles. So you can't totally just see what's beyond the fence at AmFam and assume it'd be a homerun there.

 

All that said, he does seem to have a pretty balanced spray chart!

[Jopal78]

With the type of player the Brewers are bringing in this offseason, Vogelbach is beginning to feel like a very square peg for a round hole. Wong, JBJ, Shaw, all very good defenders at their position. While you could make the argument about Hiura being a poor defender, an elite hitting prospect, even without a position, isn't going anywhere. If they bring back the DH, then maybe? But I have to think if the DH is brought back, Ryan Braun will be on the next plane to Maryvale.

 

Have to believe Big Dan is destined for a new team or for Triple AAA as depth.

 

Really there is no downside to having Vogelbach around for right now. He certainly isn't blocking anyone in the organization, and at the time they came to terms on his contract, the question of the Universal DH was unresolved.

 

Now that it seems less and less likely there will be the Universal DH, and the fact they moved Hiura to first; I do agree he is sort of a player without a position

 

But most importantly, even if Vogelbach doesn't work out, as an arbitration eligible player they can release him before opening day and only be on the hook for termination pay. If that's what ultimately happens with Vogelbach there really can't be a downside to taking a $250,000 gamble on a player who hit .328/.418/.569 in a small sample last year.

[Warning Track Power]

Independent of need, is signing JBJ to a potential ~2-3 year $8-$10m annually contract a good move?

 

I mean the defense is certainly quite good, but the offense is quite meh. 2018-2020, in 1159 PAs, he has an OPS+ of 95 with the following slash .238/.324/.742 41 HR, 143 RBI. Over the same time period, in 1122 PAs, Avisail Garcia has an OPS+ of 100 with a slash of .258/.315/.745 41 HR, 136 RBI. We essentially have JBJ on the roster already with worse D. Is that better D worth $8-$10m? I doubt it.

 

I guess I am not overly excited about the signing and think the resources could be spent better elsewhere.

[MVP2110]

I look it as JBJ would be getting the at bats that are currently being taken by the Fisher/Mckinney/Taylor group. Plus a few from Garcia & Cain. The at bats and playing time would work itself out and his defense would be really nice. I'd be all for it on a 2-3 year deal

[shanedog19]

Stearns seems to be placing a renewed emphasis on defense with the signings of Wong and Shaw. JBJ would certainly fit that mold, the question is where would he play? My guess is JBJ and Garcia would be a soft platoon, with JBJ also spelling Cain in CF some too.

[Jopal78]

Independent of need, is signing JBJ to a potential ~2-3 year $8-$10m annually contract a good move?

 

I mean the defense is certainly quite good, but the offense is quite meh. 2018-2020, in 1159 PAs, he has an OPS+ of 95 with the following slash .238/.324/.742 41 HR, 143 RBI. Over the same time period, in 1122 PAs, Avisail Garcia has an OPS+ of 100 with a slash of .258/.315/.745 41 HR, 136 RBI. We essentially have JBJ on the roster already with worse D. Is that better D worth $8-$10m? I doubt it.

 

I guess I am not overly excited about the signing and think the resources could be spent better elsewhere.

 

I think you're overlooking a few things: Very much like when Moustakas and Grandal were signed by Milwaukee it was only because they were value signings for the team when the market for those players didn't develop as anticipated. In this instance JBJ's market certainly hasn't developed where he had hoped as camps are open and he doesn't have a contract. Plus, his agent is Scott Boras, the progenitor of the term "pillow contract".

 

Secondly, if Marcel Ozuna and Michael Brantley got an AAV of $16 million and Joc Pederson got $7 million for one year. $8 to $10 million dollars is probably fair for JBJ. He's not as good as the first two, but better than Pederson. But more importantly, who else could the Brewers get for $8-10 million that would improve the team more? Keeping in mind the remaining free agents like Jake Odorizzi are not likely to suddenly take a huge pay-cut just to sign a contract.

[sveumrules]

Independent of need, is signing JBJ to a potential ~2-3 year $8-$10m annually contract a good move?

 

I mean the defense is certainly quite good, but the offense is quite meh. 2018-2020, in 1159 PAs, he has an OPS+ of 95 with the following slash .238/.324/.742 41 HR, 143 RBI. Over the same time period, in 1122 PAs, Avisail Garcia has an OPS+ of 100 with a slash of .258/.315/.745 41 HR, 136 RBI. We essentially have JBJ on the roster already with worse D. Is that better D worth $8-$10m? I doubt it.

 

I guess I am not overly excited about the signing and think the resources could be spent better elsewhere.

 

Over the last three season JBJ's 95 wRC+ isn't all that different from Avisail's 100 wRC+, but FanGraphs has JBJ at +7.6 on the bases & +14.1 in the field compared to -5.8 on the bases & -8.1 in the field for Avisail.

 

Add it all up & JBJ has 5.7 WAR the last three seasons compared to only 2.6 for Avisail.

 

In 2020 the Brewers ranked dead last on the bases (-17.6) by a considerable margin (next worst was -11.1). If we sign JBJ (+7.6, 27th) to go along with Wong (+9.7, 16th) and Cain (+7.0, 30th) returning that would essentially be adding three of the top thirty baserunners over the last three seasons to the 2021 team.

[brewers888]

Independent of need, is signing JBJ to a potential ~2-3 year $8-$10m annually contract a good move?

 

I mean the defense is certainly quite good, but the offense is quite meh. 2018-2020, in 1159 PAs, he has an OPS+ of 95 with the following slash .238/.324/.742 41 HR, 143 RBI. Over the same time period, in 1122 PAs, Avisail Garcia has an OPS+ of 100 with a slash of .258/.315/.745 41 HR, 136 RBI. We essentially have JBJ on the roster already with worse D. Is that better D worth $8-$10m? I doubt it.

 

I guess I am not overly excited about the signing and think the resources could be spent better elsewhere.

 

Over the last three season JBJ's 95 wRC+ isn't all that different from Avisail's 100 wRC+, but FanGraphs has JBJ at +7.6 on the bases & +14.1 in the field compared to -5.8 on the bases & -8.1 in the field for Avisail.

 

Add it all up & JBJ has 5.7 WAR the last three seasons compared to only 2.6 for Avisail.

 

In 2020 the Brewers ranked dead last on the bases (-17.6) by a considerable margin (next worst was -11.1). If we sign JBJ (+7.6, 27th) to go along with Wong (+9.7, 16th) and Cain (+7.0, 30th) returning that would essentially be adding three of the top thirty baserunners over the last three seasons to the 2021 team.

 

Bradley is definitely a better player than Garcia but again he doesn’t improve the offense. It’s great that Stearns cares about defense but he is completely ignoring what was the teams biggest weakness and that is scoring.

 

You would think watching this team struggle to score the last few years and especially last season would tell Stearns to acquire one or two big hitters and he has just not done that at all. Pitching and defense can only go so far when you are consistently struggling to get a hit much less runs across the plate.

[brewcrewdue80]

Independent of need, is signing JBJ to a potential ~2-3 year $8-$10m annually contract a good move?

 

I mean the defense is certainly quite good, but the offense is quite meh. 2018-2020, in 1159 PAs, he has an OPS+ of 95 with the following slash .238/.324/.742 41 HR, 143 RBI. Over the same time period, in 1122 PAs, Avisail Garcia has an OPS+ of 100 with a slash of .258/.315/.745 41 HR, 136 RBI. We essentially have JBJ on the roster already with worse D. Is that better D worth $8-$10m? I doubt it.

 

I guess I am not overly excited about the signing and think the resources could be spent better elsewhere.

 

Over the last three season JBJ's 95 wRC+ isn't all that different from Avisail's 100 wRC+, but FanGraphs has JBJ at +7.6 on the bases & +14.1 in the field compared to -5.8 on the bases & -8.1 in the field for Avisail.

 

Add it all up & JBJ has 5.7 WAR the last three seasons compared to only 2.6 for Avisail.

 

In 2020 the Brewers ranked dead last on the bases (-17.6) by a considerable margin (next worst was -11.1). If we sign JBJ (+7.6, 27th) to go along with Wong (+9.7, 16th) and Cain (+7.0, 30th) returning that would essentially be adding three of the top thirty baserunners over the last three seasons to the 2021 team.

 

How do you read in to the basepath numbers? Like is -17.6 meant as runs or simply bases? Like with Wong did he score 9.7 more runs or did he just hustle 9.7 more bases than expected? So if it's just bases that Wong was worth nearly 2.5 runs vs 9.7.

 

If its runs, 14.4 runs is what? Worth 3games of wins? alone.

 

I'm thinking JBJ becomes a serious 4th OF late inning guy who battles with Garcia on next season for an option pick up. He may want a 1yr contract after his solid 2020 small sample to repeat the value he had over a full season and enter a better market next year with more selling power.

Edit add- Garcia's option is for 12mil or 10mil saved when buying out. If JBJ is an 8-10 mil per yr guy there's your 10mil to pay him optionally.

 

Also you put a rotation of 3 OFs that 1 traded around deadline is feasible while still having a competitive starting 3.

[MNBrew]

I don't think adding Bradley means another move is coming, with Cain or Garcia out the door sometime this year being the primary assumptions I'm seeing folks make in this discussion.

 

I've long believed that your 4th OF is someone you should feel comfortable starting for 100 games. Three good starters & a prayer isn't good enough. Yelich, Cain, Garcia, & Bradley (in whatever order) is a huge upgrade and great depth -- not to mention that 3 of those 4 have won a Gold Glove, and Garcia's no slouch out there, either.

[brewers888]

It’s hard to believe that a team that scores less than Beavis and Butthead is focusing exclusively on defense.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It’s hard to believe that a team that scores less than Beavis and Butthead is focusing exclusively on defense.

Or they might just be chasing value of any type. Turner and Pederson who they were linked to are bat-first players. If Bradley joins Wong in being the big offseason additions, it might just mean those were the guys who signed on the dotted line.

[sveumrules]

It’s hard to believe that a team that scores less than Beavis and Butthead is focusing exclusively on defense.

 

In 2018 the Brewers scored the 12th most runs, in 2019 they were 15th. BPro projects them to score the 13th most runs in 2021...

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

You might just be putting too much emphasis on an already small 60 game sample made all the noisier by a global pandemic altering the season & life in general. Or maybe not, guess we'll have to check back at the end of September.

 

Stearns & company were in on Turner, a bat first player, so the second half of your statement is even more overstated than the first half.

 

A run saved is just as valuable as a run scored + offense costs more than defense on the open market + the Brewers are poor compared to other MLB teams = Stearns & company's strategy makes sense to me.

[JosephC]

I wouldn't mind seeing Bradley in a Brewer's uniform one bit. But unlike Odorizzi, where the market seems to be cold, it sounds like the Mets, Red Sox, Astros and Giants are all in on Bradley. Have to think this one is a long shot.

[brewmann04]

We in the mix with those team no shot grab a reliever instead an make it a lights out bullpen.

[HiAndTight]

If the As put Chapman on the block there would be a bidding war that we couldn’t win.

 

Chapman is a pipe dream.

 

It's like whoever said that they would only trade Hader for Tatis last year. It just means you're not trading Hader, then.

 

 

I remember that...but I think it was Tatis AND Gore...or maybe it was Tatis and Paddock. I don't remember exactly, but it was probably the most unrealistic trade suggestion I've ever seen on here.

[JohnBriggs12]

It’s hard to believe that a team that scores less than Beavis and Butthead is focusing exclusively on defense.

 

In 2018 the Brewers scored the 12th most runs, in 2019 they were 15th. BPro projects them to score the 13th most runs in 2021...

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

You might just be putting too much emphasis on an already small 60 game sample made all the noisier by a global pandemic altering the season & life in general. Or maybe not, guess we'll have to check back at the end of September.

 

Stearns & company were in on Turner, a bat first player, so the second half of your statement is even more overstated than the first half.

 

A run saved is just as valuable as a run scored + offense costs more than defense on the open market + the Brewers are poor compared to other MLB teams = Stearns & company's strategy makes sense to me.

 

Except in 2021, balls aren't put into play very often which lessens the value of defense.

[pacopete4]

The game hasn’t changed that much in 3 seasons. Defense matters. It always will. It’s refreshing to see Stearns acknowledge that in his moves.

[MNBrew]

There are lots of paths to & descriptions of what makes a good team. If Stearns' FO crew has a plan they legitimately feel will work -- and all the more so if it does work -- I'm all for it even if that choice isn't the style I'd prefer most.

[reillymcshane]

I remember thinking that Bradley would be a fascinating add. But I figured no way as long as we had Garcia, Cain and Yelich. But hey, it's fun to speculate.

 

On the surface, you can see the good and bad. Great glove, will hit 15-20 HR, walks 10% of the time, hit well last year. However, he's lucky to hit .250, is not the defender he was five years ago (but he's still really good), and his base running has slipped as well (not a shock for a player who is almost 31).

 

The other thing is not to get too excited about last year's .283 BA (by far his career best). It was buoyed by a .343 BABIP - almost 60 points of his career average. I more realistic version is that Bradley reverts to a .240ish hitter.

 

As with so many players, I guess so much depends on the price and years. 2/$16M is great. I'd take that. But 4/$50M+ is not worth it (I just pulled that number out of my butt, so don't think that's some sort of rumored ask - it's just an example).