Taijuan Walker to Mets, 2 years / $20M

[monty57]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/mets-sign-taijuan-walker.html

 

A lot of people wanted him as a Brewer this season. Probably not a bad deal at $10M/season for the Mets. Lot of potential, just don't know what you'll get out of him.

[wibadgers23]

I would have been very happy with that deal for the Brewers. Good deal for the Mets.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lot of money for a guy with not a lot of track record, and a pretty big injury history.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, $20MM for 2 years for a guy that's pitched 60 innings over the last 3 years?

 

Not for the Brewers. If he flames out it won't matter to the Mets, but it would hurt us.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, $20MM for 2 years for a guy that's pitched 60 innings over the last 3 years?

 

Not for the Brewers. If he flames out it won't matter to the Mets, but it would hurt us.

 

No doubt that he still gets some run due to his flashy name that people remember from top prospect reports from several years back. What I see is a whole lot of average his first couple seasons in Seattle, followed by a solid 2017 season with the DBacks. He turned in 5 bleh starts with the Mariners last year, then caught fire with the Blue Jays over six starts. Those 6 starts, combined with a poor FA starting pitcher class, netted him $20 million. We should all be so lucky.

[pacopete4]

Yeah, as talented of a player he seems to be, the Brewers just cannot sink this type of money into a player that has the chance to hardly pitch for them. It just doesn't add up.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well he signed for 1pmil a year. I figured at 2 yrs he was worth 13-15mil. Simply because I can see why 10mil value but hes not going to play a full season. It'd be amazing for him to reach 27 starts. Thats 0 games in September and playoffs.

[patrickgpe]

I would rather have had Anderson at his deal than this personally. Mets can take the risk though easier.

[JosephC]

I don't think 10 million for a 1 year deal would have been ridiculous at all. Wouldn't go for 2 years though. Nice ERA last year, but most of the peripherals weren't all that great and he looks more like a 4.50 ERA pitcher moving forward instead of the 3.42 ERA he had in 2020. Considering the injury history, I would only be willing to go 1 year at a time.

 

Have to think Odorizzi will be able to get at least a 2 year deal out of somebody after seeing this signing.

[sveumrules]

Even when he was healthy from 2015-17, Walker still only started 82 games (47th), throwing 461 IP (55th) with a 100 ERA- (60th) / 104 FIP- (71st), which shook out to 4.1 runs allowed based WAR (84th) & 5.0 FIP based WAR (70th).

 

Pretty middling results, but those were only his age 22-24 seasons & it looked like he had maybe kinda figured it out in 2017 (157 IP | 75 ERA- | 92 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR) before getting hurt.

 

Seems like Taijuan's been around forever, but this deal is still only buying his age 28/29 seasons. After lost 2018/19 seasons he posted a shiny 62 ERA- in 53 IP last year but the more predictive FIP- (106) & xFIP- (108) were much less encouraging.

 

Add it all up & ZiPS projects 100 IP of 98 ERA- (1.4 WAR) for 2021, so it looks like the break even point on the deal is probably around 3 WAR.

 

On the one hand, Taijuan could return to or build upon his 2017 pre-injury form & put up around 300 IP / 6 WAR, positioning himself nicely to hit FA again at age 30. On the other hand, he could be hurt or ineffective & the Mets are out 20 million, no big whoop.

 

Until the MLB financial system undergoes structural changes, certain teams will always be better positioned to take risks of this nature than others.

[Jopal78]

I would rather have had Anderson at his deal than this personally. Mets can take the risk though easier.

 

Then again, this off-season $8 to $10 million/season is about the going rate for good but not great free agents: Walker, Schwarber, James McCann, Hand, Wong, Paxton, Mike Minor, Profar, Jose Quintana.

 

With just a two year contract with an AAV of $10 mil, its not really "taking a risk." Walker is significantly younger than Anderson (who is on a cheap short term contract solely because of his own issues with injuries), and his stuff is better than Anderson's.

 

As a Brewers fan this offseason has been distressing given the jump in AAV of these mid-tier free agents. The Brewers historically don't have many players making in excess of $7 million dollars per season and probably never will. If this $7 to $10 million is the new going rate for free agents who are more than a "band-aid" but less than elite The small market clubs like Milwaukee will have even less ability to bolster the talent on their rosters, and will then have to achieve an incredible success rate on developing amateur talent to have any chance at staying consistently competitive.

[patrickgpe]

 

As a Brewers fan this offseason has been distressing given the jump in AAV of these mid-tier free agents. The Brewers historically don't have many players making in excess of $7 million dollars per season and probably never will. If this $7 to $10 million is the new going rate for free agents who are more than a "band-aid" but less than elite The small market clubs like Milwaukee will have even less ability to bolster the talent on their rosters, and will then have to achieve an incredible success rate on developing amateur talent to have any chance at staying consistently competitive.

I think you have to accept this or being a brewers fan is not for you. Until the brewers can get TV deals remotely on par with the Mets and Yankees, this is how it goes. Brewers got their one big free agent, which was in the 7-10MM range. After Wong signed, I pretty much resigned myself to only minor deals moving forward.