2021 Lineup

[CheeseheadInQC]

One of the underrated downsides to no DH is I worry Arcia’s approach will regress once he’s hitting in front of the pitcher again. I cringe a little seeing him in the eight spot.

[sveumrules]

 

It's baseball. Your best hitter is in the 2-hole. That's pretty much the way every team does it. I'm sure there is some science and reasoning behind it.

 

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/strategy/batting-order-sabermetrics/

 

3 hole is the 4th best hitter in the lineup.

 

That is the dumbest thing I have ever read....... So all the teams around the league that have star hitters in the 3 hole, are doing it wrong I guess.

 

Hmmm ok then.

 

As long as you dont lead off the pitcher & put your best hitters 7-8-9, there is no right or wrong when it comes to lineup construction. There are near infinite possibilities separated by fractions of runs so small it might net an extra couple wins over the course of 162 games.

[DR28]

As long as you dont lead off the pitcher & put your best hitters 7-8-9, there is no right or wrong when it comes to lineup construction. There are near infinite possibilities separated by fractions of runs so small it might net an extra couple wins over the course of 162 games.

 

Thank you!

 

So I stand by my lineup prediction because it balances out the lineup perfectly with alternating L-R... And puts two good on base guys in front of Yelich and Hiura.

[sveumrules]

This is going to have to be a pitching and defense led team becuase the offense is probably going to be amongst the worst in the league. It also doesn't help having the worst hitting coach in the sport but Stearns chose to retain Haines anyway.

 

From 2017-20 the Brewers allowed the 10th fewest runs, tallied the 7th highest defensive runs saved & scored the 15th most runs, they've bern winning with pitching & defense over hitting for four years now, why would 2021 be any different?

 

Did you consider the offense amongst the worst in the league last year? Because even with a number of players having career worst seasons, the Brewers 89 wRC+ was still closer to average than it was the worst in the league with the Pirates, Rangers & Rockies posting 73, 76 & 76 wRC+ marks.

 

When you say the Brewers offense will probably be amongst the worst in the league you are essentially saying they will post a sub-80 wRC+, a ten percent drop from 2020. That seems pretty unlikely to me.

[KeithStone53151]

My not so hot take on this lineup, Yelich is much more likely to be in the top 5 of MVP voting than he is to have a sub 210 avg again in 2021. I'd go as high as 250 on the average...the talent is there and you know he's working hard to bounce back after last season.

 

I think Yelich will continue to bat 2nd, Cain or Wong probably lead off...my guess is it will be Cain to open the season while he's healthy, and when he inevitably gets nicked up after the first few weeks we may shift to someone else.

[DR28]

I firmly believe we'll have a very good offense in 2021.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/12/15/22176969/could-the-brewers-have-the-best-offense-in-baseball

 

Yelich, Hiura, Garcia, Narvaez are not the hitters we saw in 2020.

[brewers888]

I firmly believe we'll have a very good offense in 2021.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/12/15/22176969/could-the-brewers-have-the-best-offense-in-baseball

 

Yelich, Hiura, Garcia, Narvaez are not the hitters we saw in 2020.

 

Agree completely regarding Yelich and Hiura but I don't think much of Garcia or Narvaez. Garcia has been around for quite awhile and has had only two good seasons so I think he was a waste of 10 million per season. As for Narvaez he certainly can't be any worse and maybe if he completely ignores Haines he can improve but he flat out looked lost last season.

[brewers888]

So does 2020 count or not. If we throw out the bad seasons that many had why do we count the breakouts of guys like Burnes and Williams. To me you can't have it both ways; if we completely ignore the offense completely tanking we shouldn't look at the stats of guys that did well.

 

For the record I believe in both Burnes and Williams but I also don't think its any guarantee that guys like Garcia and Narvaez will magically hit in 2021. Yelich and Hiura are both supremely talented so I expect bouncebacks but Garcia just isn't very good at all.

[brewerfan82]

So does 2020 count or not.

It counts. But it counts as a weird, small sample season that has many caveats built into it that should be considered when evaluating a player moving forward.

[DR28]

So does 2020 count or not. If we throw out the bad seasons that many had why do we count the breakouts of guys like Burnes and Williams. To me you can't have it both ways; if we completely ignore the offense completely tanking we shouldn't look at the stats of guys that did well.

 

For the record I believe in both Burnes and Williams but I also don't think its any guarantee that guys like Garcia and Narvaez will magically hit in 2021. Yelich and Hiura are both supremely talented so I expect bouncebacks but Garcia just isn't very good at all.

 

That's a bit extreme... Dude is a career .746 OPS, 103 OPS+ hitter so far.

[Eye Black]

So does 2020 count or not.

It counts. But it counts as a weird, small sample season that has many caveats built into it that should be considered when evaluating a player moving forward.

Exactly. Go to players splits pages from previous 162-game seasons and look at their month-by-month or even game logs. Production for many players, especially hitters, ebb and flow significantly throughout a 162-game season. By condensing it to 60-games we saw a much smaller snapshot. Regardless of how good or bad some players were, given a longer sample some players would've had positive course corrections and others would've seen further regression.

 

The key is to avoid coming up with a narrative that you know exactly what a player is capable of based on the most recent 60-games of their performance.

 

Edit: For some additional context, the Brewers are scheduled to be through 60 games after the first week of June this season.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

To this day it's clear to me that most people don't realize just how much it hampered many batters not to be able to watch video between at-bats last year. If you need something to base a leap in faith on a return to form for hitters who fell of a cliff last year, uh that's it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

To this day it's clear to me that most people don't realize just how much it hampered many batters not to be able to watch video between at-bats last year. If you need something to base a leap in faith on a return to form for hitters who fell of a cliff last year, uh that's it.

 

That's a really good point, and one that hasn't really been brought up much. It appears that players are not going to have the traditional access to the video room this season, but they will have iPads in the dugout that will allow them to access the same information they would have gotten in the film room. I think that really affected Yelich last year, along with many other star hitters across MLB.

[Jopal78]

Not sure quite where to put this but are we sure Pina will be the backup catcher? Nottingham is out of options and he's been ok in the majors

 

We're not sure, but the mere fact that he was tendered a contract would suggest it. Manny is an elite defender, and Nottinghams decent-looking offensive numbers so far are basically all due to a good HR rate, but one that based on his minor league numbers, HR/FB rate and statcast data seems unsustainable. Add to that a 35% strikeout rate. Basically, I think Piña offers both better defense and offense.

 

But I also think they'll not make their decision until they've seen what they look like in spring; it could still be Nottingham. I suspect they'd want to keep both though. I think they'll try to sneak Nottingham through waivers at the end of ST.

 

All 3 of their catchers would probably catch a major league deal somewhere else if dropped by Milwaukee. Thus, the Brewers are likely taking a wait and see approach. If one of their catchers is injured in Spring Training they're covered. If another club has a major injury at the catcher position the Brewers would be in a good position to get something in return for a catcher they'd otherwise have to drop for nothing.

 

When the Brewers traded off Martin Maldonado who would've thought that he'd go on to be in his 11th year in the major leagues. If you catch and play defense (Pina) or can hit a little bit and play catcher (Narvaez and Nottingham) you can play forever in the major leagues.

[sveumrules]

Interesting look at Yelich's 2020 & what it might or might not mean moving forward...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whither-christian-yelich/

 

"That’s not to say that you can’t take 2020 into account. It really happened, and Yelich was really disappointing. My point is merely this: great hitters have bad stretches. If you’re worried that Yelich has gotten worse, fair enough. I am too! Just know that lots of other people have done this before too, and you just didn’t notice it because those seasons weren’t pandemic-marred. Boring? Certainly. That doesn’t mean it’s not the best answer, though."

[homer]

To this day it's clear to me that most people don't realize just how much it hampered many batters not to be able to watch video between at-bats last year. If you need something to base a leap in faith on a return to form for hitters who fell of a cliff last year, uh that's it.

 

That's a really good point, and one that hasn't really been brought up much. It appears that players are not going to have the traditional access to the video room this season, but they will have iPads in the dugout that will allow them to access the same information they would have gotten in the film room. I think that really affected Yelich last year, along with many other star hitters across MLB.

 

The Athletic had an article about this in January:

 

https://theathletic.com/2294118/2021/01/05/missing-in-game-video-christian-yelich/

 

“To be honest, it sucks,” Cubs shortstop Javier Báez said last September of the lack of in-game video. “I make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing. I watch where the ball was, where the contact was. I’m really mad that we don’t have it. I know a lot of players are struggling, too. A lot of stars are struggling. I’m just one more. But the way that it is is not the way we play baseball. I need video. I need video to make adjustments during the game.”

[Hopper]

It can be argued that video is not a purist way to play the game anyway.

It's not a good look to have these guys whining about it.

A lot of things in the world were different in 2020, deal with it like the rest of us.

Did Carew, Gwynn, Ruth and Mantle have video to hit better?

To be honest, I had no idea guys were this addicted to video during the game.

Just another reason to respect the old guys who didn't have such a crutch.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It can be argued that video is not a purist way to play the game anyway.

It's not a good look to have these guys whining about it.

A lot of things in the world were different in 2020, deal with it like the rest of us.

Did Carew, Gwynn, Ruth and Mantle have video to hit better?

To be honest, I had no idea guys were this addicted to video during the game.

Just another reason to respect the old guys who didn't have such a crutch.

 

The obvious counter is to point out that those guys weren't exposed to nearly as much upper 90's heat nor the type of movement pitchers get on their breaking pitches in the modern game. Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.

[Oxy]

Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.

 

What is the point of the mound, anyway? Get rid of video, get rid of the mound...

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hitters don't watch video to adjust their swings mid-game...the value in it is that video gives them an idea on how pitchers/catchers are trying to get them and other hitters out with pitch/location sequence. Video lets them see pitch selection and the intended location of a pitch, and they can zip through that footage quickly leading up to their next AB. I'm not sure on exactly what can be shown in the clubhouses, but another value video would bring is old ABs from various relievers to give them that visual scouting report of how they may be pitched to the next time they face each other.

 

The obvious counter is to point out that those guys weren't exposed to nearly as much upper 90's heat nor the type of movement pitchers get on their breaking pitches in the modern game. Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.

 

Between games, sure - but I actually prefer no video use during the game....otherwise there will be another Astros-related incident where it's used to gain an unfair advantage between the lines while the game is being played.

[bergstein24]

Some interesting notes in Will Sammon's article in The Athletic https://theathletic.com/2412774/2021/02/26/what-weve-learned-in-spring-about-the-brewers-third-base-and-shortstop-plans/

 

It appears Arcia will be working on making himself more defensively versatile, including more reps in CF.

 

Arcia told The Athletic that he is preparing to be used at third base, shortstop and center field. “I’m ready,” Arcia said. “I’m ready for everything they ask. I’ll play wherever they want. I practice every day, taking groundballs at third base. I think it’s more mental. And I feel really good about it.”

 

Daniel Robertson is leading the group of super-utility players on the 40-man to make the team out of spring

 

The Brewers also have Mark Mathias and Tim Lopes on the 40-man roster as multi-positional players, but Counsell referred to Robertson as “probably at the top of the list.”

[Underachiever]

Hitters don't watch video to adjust their swings mid-game...the value in it is that video gives them an idea on how pitchers/catchers are trying to get them and other hitters out with pitch/location sequence. Video lets them see pitch selection and the intended location of a pitch, and they can zip through that footage quickly leading up to their next AB. I'm not sure on exactly what can be shown in the clubhouses, but another value video would bring is old ABs from various relievers to give them that visual scouting report of how they may be pitched to the next time they face each other.

 

The obvious counter is to point out that those guys weren't exposed to nearly as much upper 90's heat nor the type of movement pitchers get on their breaking pitches in the modern game. Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.

 

Between games, sure - but I actually prefer no video use during the game....otherwise there will be another Astros-related incident where it's used to gain an unfair advantage between the lines while the game is being played.

Not sure if the italicized was written by you or if you are quoting someone, but that is the argument from me. Baseball needs offense, fewer strikeouts. If video helps, use it. Christian Yelich probably faces more 98 mph fastballs in a weekend series than Babe Ruth did in his career. I am sure that pitchers with 32 complete games in a season weren't painting the corners at 100 in the ninth inning. And I am not sure that video would have helped you with a spitball anyway. Bob Feller is still talked about because he was such an anomaly as a hard thrower back then, and for all we know he was throwing low 90s. From an ESPN article:

 

"Feller's numbers from that season are mind-boggling from a modern perspective. He went 26-15 with a 2.18 ERA and 348 strikeouts, but that's not even the fun stuff. He started 42 games and completed 36 of them, throwing 10 shutouts. He pitched 371.1 innings. He even saved four games for good measure. Using a basic pitch count estimator, we guess that Feller threw 5,848 pitches that year. That's 2,118 more than the 3,730 that MLB leader David Price threw in 2014."

 

You will never, ever be able to convince me that he was routinely throwing 90+. Use the video.

[monty57]

As long as you dont lead off the pitcher & put your best hitters 7-8-9, there is no right or wrong when it comes to lineup construction. There are near infinite possibilities separated by fractions of runs so small it might net an extra couple wins over the course of 162 games.

 

I agree with this.

 

There's a lot of data in baseball, and generally using the most aggregate data yields the best results. However, in baseball there are two leagues with different rules. Having a pitcher bat 9th instead of a position player makes a significant difference. Plus every team is different, so teams should take their specific roster make-up into consideration when making up their lineup. For example, if you have two guys in the lineup with OBPs over .400, it might make sense to have them at the top of the lineup in front of your best hitter. Also, alternating L-R-L can effect how the opposing manager utilizes the bullpen, especially now that relievers have to pitch to three hitters.

 

Bottom line is that a lot of things go into making a lineup, so one "Bible" isn't there to say that every team should do things one specific way.

[DR28]

Top half of Brewers lineup vs the As today is what I think we'll see come OD.

 

Wong

Garcia (But replace with Cain)

Yelich

Hiura

Shaw

[DuWayne Steurer]

I absolutely don't have a problem with guys using video in game. It's technology that has changed the game and it's there, use it, as long as both sides are using it, and pitchers can use video in between innings to see what batters are doing, and use video to make their own adjustments.

 

I think what a few people are saying is it wasn't a great look for Baez to complain about it the way he did. The grievance should have went to MLB and the players union and be worded "hey, can't we have tablets/ipads in the dugout??"

 

As others said, 2020 was a weird year for a lot of people. Everybody. Everyone had to adjust not just how they worked, but how they went about day to day life. Apparently, baseball included , Javy Baez. I get it, being a superstar and suddenly hitting .195 because all the tools you had at your disposal aren't there sucks. Find a way to approach the union and the leadership group and say "hey, this is the way baseball is played now, we need our tools back" in a more diplomatic way. IMO of course!!