Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out

[Sixtofan]

His 2020 numbers are very close to his 2016 numbers in Boston (when they gave up on him).

 

I hope it works out - seems like a very low risk move in any event.

[Warning Track Power]

It's weird that anyone would put the AAAA title near Urias, a top prospect that battled a wrist injury, and Covid a season ago, that is turning 24 years old. It's just an odd way to look at him going into this season. That doesn't mean I think he will light the world on fire offensively, it just is odd to have any sort of judgment on him.

I completely agree with this statement. If the Brewers went out and traded for the 1B or 3B equivalent of Urias this offseason (top 25 prospect in MLB in 2019 who was hurt in 2020), can you imagine how excited people would be about his breakout potential? It reminds me of Anthony Rizzo, who also was a top 50 prospect pre-2012, who was absolute garbage in San Diego in 2011 in 153 PAs:

 

AVG: .141

OBP: .281

SLG: .242

OPS: .523

 

I am not saying Urias at SS is going to be as good as Rizzo at 1B. I am saying not everyone starts their career like Ryan Braun, and as B4U mentioned, Urias had a wrist injury and COVID. Let's give him at least half of a healthy season before we make some judgment on him. He was top 25 for a reason.

[MVP2110]

Yep, I'm fully on board with giving Urias the starting SS spot this year and seeing how he does

[NievesNoNO]

He makes the team if he has anything more than the 2019 Shaw who seemed to have forgotten how to hit a baseball. One of those who fell of the cliff when Haines came to town.

 

Yeah, I don't know what happened to him. He was seriously progressing to becoming a star, at worst a high end 3rd baseman. Every metric was improving and suddenly he lost the ability to make contact. Initially I thought maybe the league caught up and found a hole in his swing, but he was having the issue in Spring training already. So I have to believe he changed something in his swing/mechanics/timing or had some sort of vision change.

 

Anyway, I'm supper happy he's got another shot here.

[MrTPlush]

Again, I said nothing about his potential. All I was pointing out was his risk to totally flop is much higher than others. Due to his limited experience, age, and the fact he has a 400 PA history of not being a good hitter. It is very possible he continues to be a sub .700 hitter. I don't think that is really judging him. More players flop than actually succeed...even highly rated prospects. I am guessing the odds to not end up a good player greatly increase with every 100 PAs of poor play.

 

Just take BFRef projections for example:

 

Urias: .695 OPS / 59% reliability

Shaw: .716 OPS / 76% reliability

 

My point is Shaw is a veteran and his production is easier to plan for. Hopefully it raises the floor production we get out of the 3B position and is probably a big reason he was signed. Urias may have the higher ceiling, but he also could give you the worst production too. For his production floor I like the Shaw signing and I think both have nice ceilings for 2021.

[AKCheesehead]

If we’re talking about low floors then Shaw’s 2019 performance is a nuclear fallout shelter.

The variables at play make the 3b situation unpredictable as well as compelling. Nothing would totally shock me. Personally I wanted to see Urias get a chance to be the primary 3b in 2021 but agree that it is best to at least have a fallback option or two.

[Warning Track Power]

He makes the team if he has anything more than the 2019 Shaw who seemed to have forgotten how to hit a baseball. One of those who fell of the cliff when Haines came to town.

 

Yeah, I don't know what happened to him. He was seriously progressing to becoming a star, at worst a high end 3rd baseman. Every metric was improving and suddenly he lost the ability to make contact. Initially I thought maybe the league caught up and found a hole in his swing, but he was having the issue in Spring training already. So I have to believe he changed something in his swing/mechanics/timing or had some sort of vision change.

I remember reading something about Shaw around Spring Training 2019 changing his swing as a result of the launch angle revolution. Maybe Yelich's big out-of-nowhere 2018 convinced him to do the same. Hopefully, he can remember who he is and that 2017-2018 swing and recapture 75% of the past glory.

[CheezWizHed]

I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.

 

I agree. His lefty bat is intriguing at home. Even with Shaw on the team, there's still a big need for bench power. I hope that Robertson, Arcia and Shaw are bringing their OF gloves to camp then, because I think the only way the numbers work is if they keep only 4 true OFers.

 

Doesn't seem like we've had a 5th OFer in our typical 25/26 man rosters though...Seems like we normally (2017-2019 range) had Gamel as the 4th and bring up Taylor/Ray/Broxton in case of an injury.

 

[sarcasm]Maybe we just have Vogelbach cover LF for emergencies...[/sarcasm]

[CheezWizHed]

I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.

 

I agree. His lefty bat is intriguing at home. Even with Shaw on the team, there's still a big need for bench power. I hope that Robertson, Arcia and Shaw are bringing their OF gloves to camp then, because I think the only way the numbers work is if they keep only 4 true OFers.

 

Doesn't seem like we've had a 5th OFer in our typical 25/26 man rosters though...Seems like we normally (2017-2019 range) had Gamel as the 4th and bring up Taylor/Ray/Broxton in case of an injury.

 

[sarcasm]Maybe we just have Vogelbach cover LF for emergencies...[/sarcasm]

[KeithStone53151]

Again, I said nothing about his potential. All I was pointing out was his risk to totally flop is much higher than others. Due to his limited experience, age, and the fact he has a 400 PA history of not being a good hitter. It is very possible he continues to be a sub .700 hitter. I don't think that is really judging him. More players flop than actually succeed...even highly rated prospects. I am guessing the odds to not end up a good player greatly increase with every 100 PAs of poor play.

 

Just take BFRef projections for example:

 

Urias: .695 OPS / 59% reliability

Shaw: .716 OPS / 76% reliability

 

My point is Shaw is a veteran and his production is easier to plan for. Hopefully it raises the floor production we get out of the 3B position and is probably a big reason he was signed. Urias may have the higher ceiling, but he also could give you the worst production too. For his production floor I like the Shaw signing and I think both have nice ceilings for 2021.

 

Assuming Shaw makes the team, I highly suspect Urias plays against lefties. I'm fine with a platoon there. Both guys play very good defense. If Urias beats out Arcia for everyday SS, then arcia probably plays SS against lefties with Urias at 3b...either way, Shaw probably won't see much LH pitching.

 

I completely agree on Urias having a higher ceiling, and while Shaw might have a similar floor...he is far more likely to have a 700+ ops outcome than urias. I have a hard time believing we'll ever see the hole in his bat that was 2019. Having both guys generally solidifies at least mediocre production with good defense at the position...with some upside.

[Warning Track Power]

I just realized Vogelbach is wearing #21 and that was Shaw's old number. Winner of the Spring Training battle gets #21?

[Jopal78]

I'd be surprised if he doesn't make the roster, no? Who does he have to beat out for the last infield bench spot, Mark Mathias/Jace Peterson, or is it Daniel Vogelbach?

 

I think Robertson is pretty safe.

 

Obviously Hiura, Wong and Urias are locks. Arcia and Robertson are probably close to it. If they keep 13 position players, it will probably be 4-5 outfielders, 5-6 infielders and the two catchers. That means Vogelbach and Shaw may be competing for one spot. I suppose they could keep both, but then that means only 4 OFers.

 

Travis Shaw is the only true third baseman right now slated to be at big league camp next week. I think he'd have to either get injured or go hitless in the spring to not break camp with the major league team.

 

Daniel Robertson is essentially a younger right handed version of Jace Peterson, but he hasn't played as much corner outfield. Both of those facts work against him.

 

Vogelbach's chances of making the roster indeed take a hit with Shaw as Vogelbach is now redundant now as a LH back up first baseman.

 

I don't think Urias is a lock because he has an option remaining, and the Brewers still have a need for a player who can play first and also hit left handed pitching a little.

[DR28]

Lauer I can see being optioned but for me not a chance on Urias.... We gave up valuable pieces for Urias as the headliner.

[Thurston Fluff]

Again, I said nothing about his potential. All I was pointing out was his risk to totally flop is much higher than others. Due to his limited experience, age, and the fact he has a 400 PA history of not being a good hitter. It is very possible he continues to be a sub .700 hitter. I don't think that is really judging him. More players flop than actually succeed...even highly rated prospects. I am guessing the odds to not end up a good player greatly increase with every 100 PAs of poor play.

 

Just take BFRef projections for example:

 

Urias: .695 OPS / 59% reliability

Shaw: .716 OPS / 76% reliability

 

My point is Shaw is a veteran and his production is easier to plan for. Hopefully it raises the floor production we get out of the 3B position and is probably a big reason he was signed. Urias may have the higher ceiling, but he also could give you the worst production too. For his production floor I like the Shaw signing and I think both have nice ceilings for 2021.

 

If those 400 ab's all came in one year where he had regular playing time instead of spread out over a couple years I'd give it more credence. Granted it would be better if he hit well even when getting sporadic playing time but that's a pretty big adjustment to make for veterans used to playing every day let alone young guys.

[monty57]

Lauer I can see being optioned but for me not a chance on Urias.... We gave up valuable pieces for Urias as the headliner.

 

I hope the Brewers are looking for what's best for the team, not what's best for PR. If they think they will get the most long-term value out of Urias by sending him to AAA, then they should send him to AAA.

 

I hope he earns a starting spot at the MLB level this year, but I really don't want to see him getting the small side of a platoon vs LHP. That to me seems like a waste of a year of his service time. If they decide to start Arcia at SS and Shaw at 3B, then I'd rather just see Urias go to AAA until the team feels that he is ready to be a full-time MLB player. Robertson should be a fine platoon partner if they decide to go with Shaw at 3B.

 

Both Arcia and Urias are "former top prospects" who have yet to hit in the majors. Which former top prospect do you start, as neither of them really fit the bill as a MLB third baseman? Urias was labeled "top prospect" more recently than Arcia, and Arcia has had a lot more of a chance at the MLB level to try to prove himself, but Arcia also showed some life at the plate last year, while Urias hasn't done much of anything in his short stint in the majors. I don't think it would be the end of the world if Urias starts the year at AAA and Arcia is given a shot to see if his 2020 season was the beginning of a "breakout."

 

As to Shaw, his numbers in the majors in 2019 were terrible, but he didn't forget how to hit. When given everyday playing time, he destroyed AAA after being sent down. I went to a game in San Antonio and he hit probably the longest home run I've ever seen. I think/hope the Shaw of 2017-2018 is still in there. The question will be how much "rope" the Brewers give him.

 

I didn't go into the offseason thinking "boy, I hope we sign Travis Shaw to be our everyday third baseman," but if Stearns & Co think he can rebound, then I'm definitely rooting for him. He's played well in a Brewers uniform in the not-too-distant past.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Urias needs to play everyday, or close to it. He has a good approach and loads pf potential. Maybe he doesn't fulfill it, but this is a guy that needs to be on the field. Last year should not have changed whatever evaluation of him inspired the trade im the first place.

[umphrey]

Both Arcia and Urias are "former top prospects" who have yet to hit in the majors. Which former top prospect do you start, as neither of them really fit the bill as a MLB third baseman? Urias was labeled "top prospect" more recently than Arcia, and Arcia has had a lot more of a chance at the MLB level to try to prove himself, but Arcia also showed some life at the plate last year, while Urias hasn't done much of anything in his short stint in the majors. I don't think it would be the end of the world if Urias starts the year at AAA and Arcia is given a shot to see if his 2020 season was the beginning of a "breakout."

 

Arcia never really hit in the minors, his best year was in AA with an empty .307 avg (low HR and walk numbers). Urias has shown average, walks, power in AAA over a lot of plate appearances (granted, the power was only in 2019). He's a lot better of a prospect offensively than Arcia ever was.

[Eye Black]

I think a decent argument can be made for Urias starting the season as the Triple-A shortstop. Both Counsell and Stearns have indicated in the past that they believe Urias is a shortstop. Somewhat interestingly, there really isn't anyone currently in the organization that makes a ton of sense to play shortstop at Triple-A to start this season. They could always stuff someone out of position there like Mark Mathias, but that would seemingly be a wasted development opportunity for someone like Urias to get additional seasoning at the position. I am fairly certain even if he started the season at Triple-A that Urias would be with the big league club before too long.

 

For the start of the season, Daniel Robertson has the ability to give them spot starts at SS. One of the limiting factors for Arcia is he really only has experience as a shortstop (yes, I know they've mentioned trying him at 3B, but I don't totally buy it). I do think they'll give Arcia the first opportunity to be that starting shortstop this year, but I get the sense there is a decent likelihood they'll be being willing to move on from him at some point this season if he doesn't perform.

[djoctagone]

I just realized Vogelbach is wearing #21 and that was Shaw's old number. Winner of the Spring Training battle gets #21?

vogelbach is now #20.

[clancyphile]

Don't mind the signing - the offensive floor is a little lower than if they had brought in the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year to handle third, but Shaw still gains about 100-150 points of OPS over Sogard.

 

Limiting exposure to LHP is crucial, and he does offer positional versatility having played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in the majors.

[TURBO]

Anything is better than Sogard, so glad we won't have the nerd this year. Great guy and teamate, but I don't want to see him playing in a Brewers uni again.

[CheezWizHed]

Lauer I can see being optioned but for me not a chance on Urias.... We gave up valuable pieces for Urias as the headliner.

 

I hope the Brewers are looking for what's best for the team, not what's best for PR. If they think they will get the most long-term value out of Urias by sending him to AAA, then they should send him to AAA.

 

I hope he earns a starting spot at the MLB level this year, but I really don't want to see him getting the small side of a platoon vs LHP. That to me seems like a waste of a year of his service time. If they decide to start Arcia at SS and Shaw at 3B, then I'd rather just see Urias go to AAA until the team feels that he is ready to be a full-time MLB player. Robertson should be a fine platoon partner if they decide to go with Shaw at 3B.

 

Both Arcia and Urias are "former top prospects" who have yet to hit in the majors. Which former top prospect do you start, as neither of them really fit the bill as a MLB third baseman? Urias was labeled "top prospect" more recently than Arcia, and Arcia has had a lot more of a chance at the MLB level to try to prove himself, but Arcia also showed some life at the plate last year, while Urias hasn't done much of anything in his short stint in the majors. I don't think it would be the end of the world if Urias starts the year at AAA and Arcia is given a shot to see if his 2020 season was the beginning of a "breakout."

 

As to Shaw, his numbers in the majors in 2019 were terrible, but he didn't forget how to hit. When given everyday playing time, he destroyed AAA after being sent down. I went to a game in San Antonio and he hit probably the longest home run I've ever seen. I think/hope the Shaw of 2017-2018 is still in there. The question will be how much "rope" the Brewers give him.

 

I didn't go into the offseason thinking "boy, I hope we sign Travis Shaw to be our everyday third baseman," but if Stearns & Co think he can rebound, then I'm definitely rooting for him. He's played well in a Brewers uniform in the not-too-distant past.

 

I tend to agree with what you are saying - past decisions are sunk costs. Don't make future decisions based on what it cost you in the past.

 

But I have to imagine the headlines if Urias goes to AAA so Shaw makes the team. Another prospect sent to the minors for Shaw to hit (or worse...to not hit).

 

I'd imagine that they'd cut/trade Arcia before sending Urias down, however.

[markedman5]

Looks like CC stayed in touch with Travis. The whole "hard feelings" narrative was obviously way overblown.

Will Sammon

@WillSammon

·

3m

Craig Counsell said he maintained conversations over the last year and a half with Travis Shaw. From a roster standpoint, Shaw, a LHB/3B is a good fit. And as Counsell said, "What he did last year was a fit."

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looks like CC stayed in touch with Travis. The whole "hard feelings" narrative was obviously way overblown.

Will Sammon

@WillSammon

·

3m

Craig Counsell said he maintained conversations over the last year and a half with Travis Shaw. From a roster standpoint, Shaw, a LHB/3B is a good fit. And as Counsell said, "What he did last year was a fit."

 

It appears there might be some regret on Counsell's part with their decision to let Shaw go to begin with. Obvious hindsight, but his pedestrian results with the Blue Jays last year were still significantly better than what the Brewers got from the 3B position in 2020, especially after Gyorko started playing 1B nearly on a full time basis.

[djoctagone]

this deal is official.