Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out

[SRB]

I'd be surprised if he doesn't make the roster, no? Who does he have to beat out for the last infield bench spot, Mark Mathias/Jace Peterson, or is it Daniel Vogelbach?

 

I think Robertson is pretty safe.

 

Obviously Hiura, Wong and Urias are locks. Arcia and Robertson are probably close to it. If they keep 13 position players, it will probably be 4-5 outfielders, 5-6 infielders and the two catchers. That means Vogelbach and Shaw may be competing for one spot. I suppose they could keep both, but then that means only 4 OFers.

 

Can't see them keeping Vogelbach to be honest, unless there is a last minute deal to keep the NL DH. The Wong signing more or less forces them to be serious about Hiura at 1B, and Hiura is not going to be sitting very often. Even assuming Vogelbach is a better bet to hit well against RHP than Shaw (not entirely clear), being a 1B/DH versus a 3B/1B/2B is a huge difference.

[wallus]

Shaw is also a very good first baseman IIRC.....which will come in handy as a late inning defensive replacement for Hiura......assuming he makes the team of course.

 

Good point. Bring in Arcia for SS and move Urias over to 3rd for a great defensive infield. Although our late inning guys strikeout out a lot anyways.

[brewerfan82]

Just wanted to throw this out there:

 

 

- First off, he was really, really good 2017-18 with us. Remember how much talk there was about how great the trade was to get him and that it was one of the most lopsided trades ever? Those were good times.

 

- 2019 was disastrous, but it was only 270 PAs as he got off to a bad start and got pulled in and out of the lineup and sent down to the minors for an extended period (where he raked by the way, hitting .286/.437/.586/1.023 with a 147 wRC+ in 174 PAs). By the time the second half came around, Hiura was up and Moose was back at 3B, so he never got consistent playing time at that point.

 

- 2020 wasn't 2017 or 2018, but he did bounce back to a 92 wRC+ in another small sample of 180 PAs

 

- All the projections have him improving offensively from last year, and ZiPS is especially optimistic on him returning with a 22 HR season if he gets about 2/3rds playing time

 

- He was one of the best defensive 3B available this offseason. Shaw at 3rd, Urias/Arcia at SS, Wong at 2B, Cain back in CF should be really good defensively and should benefit the whole pitching staff (as long as Hiura at 1B doesn't end up negating all that... *cross fingers!*)

 

If he can produce close to 100 wRC+ and play above average defense at third, this could be a major win. That could also have a nice side effect of solidify SS as well, as Urias could prove to be a pretty big upgrade over Arcia there as well.

[brewmann04]

If Shaw can’t beat the guys currently on this roster then he should be retired.

[djoctagone]

mark your calendars for 15 march. that's the reported opt-out date for shaw if he isn't added to the 40-man roster. that's quite early in camp.

 

shaw does have a minor league option remaining, but has enough service time to refuse the optional assignment.

 

there are 21 non-roster invitees in big league camp.

[wibadgers23]

mark your calendars for 15 march. that's the reported opt-out date for shaw if he isn't added to the 40-man roster. that's quite early in camp.

 

shaw does have a minor league option remaining, but has enough service time to refuse the optional assignment.

 

there are 21 non-roster invitees in big league camp.

 

Yeah that’s only two weeks worth of games. I’m guessing he’d have to look pretty crappy in those two weeks not to make the roster.

[DR28]

Always liked Shaw, really like this move... He shouldnt have a hard time making the team.

 

Wong

Cain

Yelich

Hiura

Shaw

Garcia

Narvaez

Urias/Arcia

 

Look at that power 3-7 and the awesome L-R balance.

 

Shaw/Robertson or Urias will be a nice productive platoon... I would rather go Shaw/Robertson... Its Urias’ time to show us what he’s got at SS.

[brewerfan82]

mark your calendars for 15 march. that's the reported opt-out date for shaw if he isn't added to the 40-man roster. that's quite early in camp.

 

shaw does have a minor league option remaining, but has enough service time to refuse the optional assignment.

 

there are 21 non-roster invitees in big league camp.

 

Yeah that’s only two weeks worth of games. I’m guessing he’d have to look pretty crappy in those two weeks not to make the roster.

Seems like just a creative way to delay making a 40-man decision. "We want to offer you $3M, but we don't want to be forced to do a corresponding move right now. If you let us sign you as a NRI, we'll give you $1.5M now and another $1.5M on March 15th when we make it official."

[SRB]

Given how little competition Shaw should have from other (non-Robertson) utility guys in camp, I wonder if the non-guaranteed aspect of this and the early opt-out suggests they are still looking at other 3B options?

[Eye Black]

All the projections have him improving offensively from last year, and ZiPS is especially optimistic on him returning with a 22 HR season if he gets about 2/3rds playing time

Clay Davenport's system projects him to slash .228 BA / .323 OBP / .418 SLG. Davenport's system is very high on his defensive projection.

[markedman5]

[Warning Track Power]

Someone call up Ryan Braun and get him back in Milwaukee. Gotta run back 6/8 of the 2018 NLCS lineup this year:

 

CF Cain

RF Yelich

LF Braun

3B Shaw

C Piña

SS Arcia

[folly412]

He makes the team if he has anything more than the 2019 Shaw who seemed to have forgotten how to hit a baseball. One of those who fell of the cliff when Haines came to town.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I wonder how negotiations went given what his agent had to say when he left. Will this be asked about by the cracker jack reporters covering the team or is it just water over the dam at this point.

 

Travis Shaw’s agent, Joe Bick, texted me this statement regarding Shaw, now a free agent: “If Travis can be in a spot where a team just trusts and believes in him, they’ll get tremendous results.”

[brewcrewdue80]

Gotta thing the team on the deal is either going with Vogelbach or Shaw and the casualty basically pays for the other

[sveumrules]

I wonder how negotiations went given what his agent had to say when he left. Will this be asked about by the cracker jack reporters covering the team or is it just water over the dam at this point.

 

Travis Shaw’s agent, Joe Bick, texted me this statement regarding Shaw, now a free agent: “If Travis can be in a spot where a team just trusts and believes in him, they’ll get tremendous results.”

 

Based on the 2020 results, it looks like the Blue Jays didn't trust & believe in Travis enough either.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I wonder how negotiations went given what his agent had to say when he left. Will this be asked about by the cracker jack reporters covering the team or is it just water over the dam at this point.

 

Considering Shaw signed a minor league deal, I'm sure he was in the situation of having to take what he could get. I have a feeling he will make the team, but if he doesn't produce, he'll be gone in pretty short order. I don't think the previous relationship, or any perceived bad blood, has any meaning at this point. He's at the point where if he doesn't make it with the Brewers in 2021, he might be done. That realization will make a payer swallow their pride pretty quick.

[dlk9s]

This is a terrible signing!

 

This is a fantastic signing!

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Brewers can get league average offense from Shaw and a $3 million dollar contract; they will have done very well

 

I still think that's a big if. We have no idea if his modest 2020 numbers were a "dead cat" bounce or a sign he'll be closer to his 2018 form. A safer sign would have been Brad Miller (before he got picked up by Phils) or Franco. His OPS+ of 95 last year doesn't scream he's back.

 

In 2018, he struck out once per every 5.4 PA. Last year he fanned once every 3.6 PA. That was an improvement over 2019 but not great. His BABIP was close to his career high from 2017. Good news is that his contract doesn't preclude them from dumping him if he doesn't produce as they did with Smoak last year.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd be surprised if he doesn't make the roster, no? Who does he have to beat out for the last infield bench spot, Mark Mathias/Jace Peterson, or is it Daniel Vogelbach?

 

I think Robertson is pretty safe.

 

Obviously Hiura, Wong and Urias are locks. Arcia and Robertson are probably close to it. If they keep 13 position players, it will probably be 4-5 outfielders, 5-6 infielders and the two catchers. That means Vogelbach and Shaw may be competing for one spot. I suppose they could keep both, but then that means only 4 OFers.

 

Can't see them keeping Vogelbach to be honest, unless there is a last minute deal to keep the NL DH. The Wong signing more or less forces them to be serious about Hiura at 1B, and Hiura is not going to be sitting very often. Even assuming Vogelbach is a better bet to hit well against RHP than Shaw (not entirely clear), being a 1B/DH versus a 3B/1B/2B is a huge difference.

 

I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.

[sveumrules]

A safer sign would have been Brad Miller (before he got picked up by Phils) or Franco. His OPS+ of 95 last year doesn't scream he's back.

 

ZiPS projects both Miller (96 OPS+, 0.9 WAR) & Franco (95 OPS+, 0.5 WAR) worse than Travis (102 OPS+, 1.8 WAR) for 2021.

 

By that methodology Shaw appears to be a safest bet, though "safest bet out of three longshots" is a pretty dubious qualifier to begin with.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.

 

I agree. His lefty bat is intriguing at home. Even with Shaw on the team, there's still a big need for bench power. I hope that Robertson, Arcia and Shaw are bringing their OF gloves to camp then, because I think the only way the numbers work is if they keep only 4 true OFers.

[MrTPlush]

Travis Shaw could hit like his 2020 self and I would probably be happy. Urias has a career OPS of .623 and Robertson barely had an OPS over .600 in his last extended look at the big stage. At the very least Shaw should help raise the floor of production at 3B. Urias and Robertson both have a decent probability to look like AAAA players.

[pacopete4]

It's weird that anyone would put the AAAA title near Urias, a top prospect that battled a wrist injury, and Covid a season ago, that is turning 24 years old. It's just an odd way to look at him going into this season. That doesn't mean I think he will light the world on fire offensively, it just is odd to have any sort of judgment on him.

[MrTPlush]

It's weird that anyone would put the AAAA title near Urias, a top prospect that battled a wrist injury, and Covid a season ago, that is turning 24 years old. It's just an odd way to look at him going into this season. That doesn't mean I think he will light the world on fire offensively, it just is odd to have any sort of judgment on him.

 

Didn't say he was one, but he could definitely hit like one this year. He has done it for over 400 PAs now in his career in all honesty. All I am saying is he has a solid amount of risk of being atrocious with the bat, as done Robertson. At least with Shaw you can have some confidence he should be near league average...should.

 

I won't be shocked if Urias ends up the better of the 3B or beats out Arcia at SS this year, but that is really far from assured and Urias arguably has the lowest floor of the bunch.