2021 debuts

[MVP2110]

What prospects do we think might debut this year? Normally every year I have a decent idea of which guys have a shot at getting called up but I'm pretty confused this year. Guys like Ashby, Small, Turang, Lutz all last played high A in 2019 so this year in theory that would put them in line to play AAA. Do we think they start at AAA or do we think they start at AA? Do any of them have a chance to make their debuts this year?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I expect Small to join Bettinger, File and Brown in the Nashville rotation, with hopefully Ashby following midseason. Bettinger and File are probably next up since they are already on the 40-man roster, but if Small pitches well, he could very well make his big league debut in 2021.

 

Turang and Lutz will hopefully be in AA. I imagine that the next "prospect" (if he can still be called that) to make his MLB debut will likely be Corey Ray.

[Lathund]

I think Ray is probably the most likely, even if he has yet to fulfill any of his promise. Simply because if nothing else, he's probably the second best CF defender on the 40-man, so in case of injuries he'd be up. I would expect Ethan Small to get the Burnes-like introduction, a mid-late season callup to the 'pen with the intention to start in the future. It's easy to think that because he was in A-ball in 2019 he was far away; but I would think the way he was deployed (Short starts with time inbetween) was more due to having already pitched a lot of college innings, and that he was in Arizona and then Appleton mostly for coaching and working on things. He was a very advanced college pitcher, and I would've expected him to have pitched in AA (Maybe a very brief stint in A+) in 2020 had there been a season. File and Bettinger I think may be more injury insurance this year so circumstances would dictatea their chances.

 

But it's hard to know who took a step forward during 2020 and who didn't. In a normal year someone who had a breakout might have ended 2019 in A+, but gotten an early-season promotion (or even started) in AA in 2020, and ended the year in AAA after yet another promotion. That kind of player would be likely to be in line for a callup. Whereas if said player stayed in A+ most of the year in 2020, even if he did well, that would suggest a 2021 debut is unlikely. But we as fans don't really know who might be among the former and who might have been among the latter during summer camp and/or instructionals.

 

But you never know with pitchers especially. Don't know if we really expected Bickford to debut in 2020 despite his impressive 2019. Many pitchers in recent years who have gotten relief debuts after having not pitched above A+ or so; in 2020 much of it was due to necessity, but guys like Jordan Hicks stick out from earlier years. So I expect some unexpected reliver to debut. Someone out of Ashby, QTC, Andrews, Sanchez, Barker; whoever took the greatest leap forward.

 

So to put out some actual predictions to be mocked in the future:

Corey Ray will be the first MLB debut of 2021 relatively early on, followed by Ethan Small shortly before the all-star break after impressing in the minors. Dylan File will make his debut in an August doubleheader as the 27th man. Aaron Ashby gets a September callup and pitches 3.1 innings out of the pen.

 

And to name a dark horse: Brice Turang. It would take multiple SS injuries, but I think someone with that combination of defense, baserunning and plate discipline is probably already a replacement level player. I think the Brewers will want to wait until he's more than that before they start his clock, but clubs do promote players like that early out of desperation sometimes. See for example Nico Hoerner for the Cubs. Again I don't actually expect it, but if I had to pick an unlikely but still realistic name it'd be him. Probably requires all of Urias, Arcia and Mathias to be injured at the same time after the trade deadline has passed though.

[nate82]

I think the pitchers are going to be the ones making more debuts this year. With a shortened season last year and no minor league games and if the Brewers don't sign a veteran pitcher to put into the rotation there will be a lot of innings in the bullpen and in the rotation that will need to be covered by Small, Brown, Bettinger and others. We will probably see a merry go round of pitchers going on the IL for a week and then coming back and I fully expect Woodruff and Burnes to be put on innings and pitch count limits early on in the year. There is going to be plenty of opportunities for some of the younger Brewers pitchers to come up and pitch some meaningful innings for the Brewers to cover these innings. Though some of these pitchers are also going to be on inning and pitch counts also due to there being no minor league season last year.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Of the Brewers' top 10 prospects, I'll zag a little and say the only one we might see before August is Feliciano if there is a catching injury that will be more than the minimum IL stint. I've got a feeling Turang, Small, Ashby and Lutz all start in AA with hopes of midseason promotions.

 

Among non-40 man guys, even with the number of 40-man bullpen arms likely to start the year in AAA, I'd wager at least two pitchers get added at some point, probably for a bullpen role. Andrews is probably the obvious choice here, but I'm going to guess a starter (Brown or Francis) gets moved to the MLB pen. Cousins and Castaneda have fast-riser potential for one of those spots too.

[Jenkins5]

Is it unrealistic for Ray to make opening day roster? As it is right now, he is 26 already (27 in September) and McKinney and Taylor are main competition for that 4th spot. Think the one with best Spring will win out. Taylor with solid debut maybe gets first look.I have no clue how good good/bad he was last summer in Appleton or how he looked in Arizona during Fall. Injuries and poor performance in 2019 dropped his stock a ton but I still feel he can bounce back and produce. Like I have always said, he is an OF version of Rickie Weeks at the plate. Have to take the extreme highs with the extreme lows....those highs though....those can be extremely good.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't know how Ray gets an opening day spot over Taylor. Taylor was not overwhelmed at all last year. In fact he looked like he belonged. Ray hasn't played other than camp games since 2019. If Ray looked really good in Arizona, and it comes down to him or McKinney as a LH bench bat he's got a shot, but I think they'd find a veteran somewhere.

[KeithStone53151]

What are you all basing these predictions on? I mean I guess you can make educated guess based on age, level to end 2019, and talent level based on what we knew in 2019. Is there anything else? Do you guys have any info on what they did since September 2019?

[clancyphile]

I think Ray doesn't make it until September, and he's likely to be a left-handed Keon Broxton.

 

In regular/semi-regular playing time, Broxton did have excellent splits in the traditional platoon. If Ray does that, he will be a productive player, not too shabby in his first 3-4 years, but the Crew would be best served to deal him after he does very well his first year.

[DHonks]

I’m normally an eternal optimist, but I can’t see how Ray is in the conversation for a call up unless our entire outfield is quarantined for Covid. I know minor league stats don’t mean much, but his minor league stats been consistently awful. I know he’s been injured, but I see no reason to think he’ll be a big league contributor, and I see no reason to think he’ll ever be in a Brewers uniform for a regular season game.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Does Zack Green still count as a prospect? Because 3B, as of right now, is completely wide open.

[Outlander]

Green is still a prospect but wouldn't be making his debut.

[Outlander]

I’m normally an eternal optimist, but I can’t see how Ray is in the conversation for a call up unless our entire outfield is quarantined for Covid. I know minor league stats don’t mean much, but his minor league stats been consistently awful. I know he’s been injured, but I see no reason to think he’ll be a big league contributor, and I see no reason to think he’ll ever be in a Brewers uniform for a regular season game.

If the Brewers think that there is really no reason to have him on the 40 man anymore.

[djoctagone]

the change to not require outright waivers during a covid outbreak is pretty significant. it basically allows the brewers to yo-yo any player back and forth (or possibly, only a player in the team's cpp) without having to worry about putting him on outright waivers to return him to the minor leagues.

i keep thinking about how advantageous this is to the parent club. allows the club to bring up the most-rested pitchers, regardless of their 40-man roster status. if a 40-man guy is struggling, a player lacking a major league contract could come up instead.

 

thus, we could see quite a few players making their 2021 debuts this year . . . especially if an outbreak is defined by having had close contact with another team who had a bunch of players test positive (i.e. the clubs who had played the marlins and the cardinals right before their massive outbreaks).

 

i hope that an outbreak doesn't happen to any team . . . but if it does, expect to see some surprise player activations.

[brooks_quichenick]

Well this is a bummer. Might push back any chance of Dylan File debuting this season:

 

 

“Brewers pitching prospect Dylan File is in camp but not pitching. He had surgery, per Craig Counsell, and could be out until midseason. We don't have details yet but they are forthcoming.”

 

 

“From Brewers: Dylan File underwent surgery on Feb. 4 to repair a stress fracture in his right elbow. He is expected to miss 3 1/2 to four months from the date of the surgery.“

[RollieTime]

I was really excited to see him debut this season. This is disappointing. Maybe he can be a late season call up that can come in with a fresh arm down the stretch and into the postseason.

[adambr2]

Quintin Torres-Costa is someone to keep an eye on. He's not going to crack the opening day roster, but I could definitely see him getting an opportunity sometime this season if he impresses in Nashville. It's hard to know what to expect from someone after the lost minor league season of 2020, especially someone who had TJ in 2019, but he looked well on his way prior to then.

[Lathund]

So to put out some actual predictions to be mocked in the future:

Corey Ray will be the first MLB debut of 2021 relatively early on, followed by Ethan Small shortly before the all-star break after impressing in the minors. Dylan File will make his debut in an August doubleheader as the 27th man. Aaron Ashby gets a September callup and pitches 3.1 innings out of the pen.

 

Off to a good start here.