2021 Brewers Optimism Thread

[FidoMcCokefiend]

The Brewers have been 31 games over .500 3 times in franchise history - at end of game 9/24/1982, 9/29/1982 and 9/8/2021

 

Have never been 32 games over .500

[roadcrew3]

Brewers currently have the 5th best odds to win the World Series according to sports books. Better odds than the large markets like the NY Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants...in a year when all of those teams are also in the playoff picture.

 

What a time to be a fan of this team

[Roderick]

Brewers currently have the 5th best odds to win the World Series according to sports books. Better odds than the large markets like the NY Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants...in a year when all of those teams are also in the playoff picture.

 

What a time to be a fan of this team

 

That's surprising. You have to figure that the Brewers are technically the best shot to go from the NL if you could only pick one team right now. The Giants and Dodgers will probably have to play eachother - so how do you pick one of those teams? And the AL is pretty balanced also. So I'm thinking the Brewers should be the best odds to win the WS if you had to pick one team today, even though they won't be favored in the series vs the NL West or probably against the AL team.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Roderick

[MrTPlush]

Brewers currently have the 5th best odds to win the World Series according to sports books. Better odds than the large markets like the NY Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants...in a year when all of those teams are also in the playoff picture.

 

What a time to be a fan of this team

 

That's surprising. You have to figure that the Brewers are technically the best shot to go from the NL if you could only pick one team right now. The Giants and Dodgers will probably have to play eachother - so how do you pick one of those teams? And the AL is pretty balanced also. So I'm thinking the Brewers should be the best odds to win the WS if you had to pick one team today, even though they won't be favored in the series vs the NL West or probably against the AL team.

 

The Dodgers are still favored to win their division and that is a big reason our odds are still half of theirs. It doesn't just take the standings as they are and assume the Dodgers as the WC. If the Dodgers do end up as the WC their odds to win the world series would likely plummet off the 21% they are now.

[igor67]

I think most of the projection systems are still somewhat unfairly punishing the Giants based on expectations coming into the season and underselling them. A small lead for them with ~20 games to play calling that anything other than a toss-up at this point is claiming too much accuracy in your model.

[BruisedCrew]

I think most of the projection systems are still somewhat unfairly punishing the Giants based on expectations coming into the season and underselling them. A small lead for them with ~20 games to play calling that anything other than a toss-up at this point is claiming too much accuracy in your model.

 

We could have a thread about the playoff projection systems and the assumptions they use that go into the simulations they run to produce those probabilities. Some of them provide more details about how they create their models than others, but when you see those assumptions, it helps to explain why I don’t treat a 95% chance produced by these models the same as I might for something for which mathematical probabilities are certain, like tossing a coin, rolling a pair of dice, picking a card out of a deck, spinning a roulette wheel, etc.

 

I think all of the models start with some attempt to place a value on the team. The 538 site provides a pretty thorough explanation of how they do that, and they say it is based on just the last 100 games. It also says that they look at things like margin of victory, and that would likely lead to considering the Dodgers the strongest team in MLB based on things like their run differential, not just the won-loss record. They currently have the Giants at 51% to win the division to the Dodgers 49%, essentially a tossup despite the Giants 2 game lead. That probably also reflects a difference in strength of the remaining schedule.

 

There are a lot of things the models can’t account for immediately, like the effect of injuries or teams shedding or obtaining impact players. So, I look at them for information and entertainment, but I wouldn’t assume that the probabilities they produce are that precise.

Edited September 9, 2021 by BruisedCrew

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think most of the projection systems are still somewhat unfairly punishing the Giants based on expectations coming into the season and underselling them. A small lead for them with ~20 games to play calling that anything other than a toss-up at this point is claiming too much accuracy in your model.

 

We could have a thread about the playoff projection systems and the assumptions they use that go into the simulations they run to produce those probabilities. Some of them provide more details about how they create their models than others, but when you see those assumptions, it helps to explain why I don’t treat a 95% chance produced by these models the same as I might for something for which mathematical probabilities are certain, like tossing a coin, rolling a pair of dice, picking a card out of a deck, spinning a roulette wheel, etc.

 

I think all of the models start with some attempt to place a value on the team. The 538 site provides a pretty thorough explanation of how they do that, and they say it is based on just the last 100 games. It also says that they look at things like margin of victory, and that would likely lead to considering the Dodgers the strongest team in MLB based on things like their run differential, not just the won-loss record. They currently have the Giants at 51% to win the division to the Dodgers 49%, essentially a tossup despite the Giants 2 game lead. That probably also reflects a difference in strength of schedule.

 

There are a lot of things the models can’t account for immediately, like the effect of injuries or teams shedding or obtaining impact players. So, I look at them for information and entertainment, but I wouldn’t assume that the probabilities they produce are that precise.

 

Yeah, this is good, though 538 audits all their predictive models pretty thoroughly.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/mlb-playoffs/

 

Their goal really IS to make those probabilities precise, at least with expected statistical variance and within standard deviation margins, etc.

 

They do a pretty good job and adjust their models for accuracy. Since this is the optimism thread, I'll add that the 9% Brewers World Series odds are definitely an undersell!

[MrTPlush]

I think most of the projection systems are still somewhat unfairly punishing the Giants based on expectations coming into the season and underselling them. A small lead for them with ~20 games to play calling that anything other than a toss-up at this point is claiming too much accuracy in your model.

 

Fangraphs has it at

 

Dodgers: 52.9%

Giants: 47.1%

 

Their expected win/lose is just .1 win more.

 

Seems about right.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers have 10 position players with at least 1.0 WAR per FanGraphs. The 11th best position player is Eduardo Escobar with 0.6 WAR.

 

The Brewers have 11 pitchers with at least 0.9 rWAR per FanGraphs. Their 12th best pitcher is Brent Suter with 0.5 rWAR.

[SRB]

How do they calculate World Series odds, just based on regular season record/runs?

 

I'm not getting my hopes up, the Dodgers still have a ridiculous roster, but you have to think the Brewers roster is uniquely slanted toward doing well in the playoffs. Three elite starters, two elite relievers in the bullpen, excellent defense, and a fairly balanced offense that is spread across a bunch of players rather than centered on one or two MVP candidates who need to have good series.

[MrTPlush]

How do they calculate World Series odds, just based on regular season record/runs?

 

I'm not getting my hopes up, the Dodgers still have a ridiculous roster, but you have to think the Brewers roster is uniquely slanted toward doing well in the playoffs. Three elite starters, two elite relievers in the bullpen, excellent defense, and a fairly balanced offense that is spread across a bunch of players rather than centered on one or two MVP candidates who need to have good series.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about

 

The general Fangraphs model is based on projections.

 

They have one that looks at it in a backwards view

 

Then their is a coin flip one that is just random.

[DuWayne Steurer]

https://www.mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-cy-young-case

 

2nd lowest fip, basically ever for a guy with 140 ip or more. I think everyone already knew his season was ridiculously, historically good, but yeah. there ya go.

[Joseph Zarr]

I love how our 'Big Names' came to play this season in Burnes and Woody. We absolutely needed their dominancing as I believe it helped shape the identity of the Team. BUT, for me, this season is all about the unheralded players who just stepped in and stepped UP. When Hiura and Yelich struggled mightily for the majority of the season we saw career-shaping performances from guys like Jace Peterson, Luis Urias, Tyrone Taylor, and Rowdy Tellez. It seems all the fringe players have had their moments - like a multi-HR game from the Pineapple or an utterly massive PH GS from Vogelbomb. Then, on the pitching side: Miguel Sanchez, Jake Cousins, Jandale Gustave, Box of Burgers, and Eric Lauer. Fantastic performances. Just so much step up I am practically winded.

[owbc]

How do they calculate World Series odds, just based on regular season record/runs?

 

I'm not getting my hopes up, the Dodgers still have a ridiculous roster, but you have to think the Brewers roster is uniquely slanted toward doing well in the playoffs. Three elite starters, two elite relievers in the bullpen, excellent defense, and a fairly balanced offense that is spread across a bunch of players rather than centered on one or two MVP candidates who need to have good series.

 

Yes, exactly, this team is built to win in October. They have been repeatedly willing to sacrifice regular season wins in order to increase the chance of success in the postseason...6-man rotation, mandated 1-inning reliefs stints, days off, etc. And yet, they find a way to win in the regular season anyway thanks to their tremendous depth plus Counsell's genius at putting players in a position to succeed. It's truly phenomenal what they have accomplished.

 

And it's not like this team is just optimized to do certain things well, this is a complete baseball team. Defense, baserunning, patience at the plate, fundamentals, etc. You name it, they do it better than average.

[torts]

I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS SEASON!!!! THIS HAS BEEN AMAZING!!! FULL CAPS LOCK ON FOR THE REAST OF MY LIFE! SO PUMPED! LETS GO BREWERS!!!! WIN IT ALL !!@!@%!@%!

[MrTPlush]

It is kind of amazing on September 10th we are just coasting to a divisional championship. Not only that, but hosting an NLDS series. Just crazy times. I recall the 2011 team coasting for the most part….but on this same day the Brewers were in the midst of a 5 game losing streak and the Cardinals in a 4 game winning streak. The lead was still 6 games, but stress levels were high for the situation.

 

The most the Brewers have won their division is 6 games, in 2011. They are currently over double that. Every other time was like by a game.

[bucks2281]

The 2011 team didn’t clinch the 2 seed until the final night of the season

[BruisedCrew]

If my memory is correct, in their franchise history the Brewers have only played one game in which they had a playoff spot, and their playoff position, locked in.

 

In 1981, they clinched their spot in the strike expanded division series on the second last day, making their last game meaningless.

 

In 1982 they won the division on the final day.

 

In 2008 they won the wild card spot on the final day.

 

In 2011 they clinched the division with 5 games to spare, but didn’t clinch home field in the division series until the final day. That home field advantage seemed valuable because the Brewers had a much better home record, and the division series played out that way as the home team won each game.

 

In 2018, they clinched a playoff berth with 3 games left, but won the division in Game 163.

 

In 2019 they clinched a wild card berth with 4 games left, but were not eliminated for the division until the final day.

 

In 2020, they backed into a spot in the playoffs on the final day.

 

This year they are on track to clinch the division and home field advantage in the NLDS with several games to spare. They still could be in the running for the 1 seed until the end.

 

The last completely meaningless game the Brewers have played was the final game in 2017, as they were eliminated from the wild card race on the second last day.

 

Considering the history of the franchise, these last 5 years have been pretty remarkable.

[Eye Black]

Considering the history of the franchise, these last 5 years have been pretty remarkable.

These are the good old days of Brewers baseball.

[pacopete4]

Considering the history of the franchise, these last 5 years have been pretty remarkable.

These are the good old days of Brewers baseball.

[BruisedCrew]

Considering the history of the franchise, these last 5 years have been pretty remarkable.

These are the good old days of Brewers baseball.

 

The Yount-Molitor era was pretty good too because from 1978-1992 the Brewers had several really good teams that were entertaining and competitive but didn’t get the playoff appearances in no small part because of being in the brutal AL East where there were always at least a couple very good teams. Every one of the 7 teams except the Indians won the division at least once in that period and advanced to the World Series. There were a few years in which the Brewers failed to make the playoffs despite having more wins (sometimes several more wins) than the winners of the AL West.

[nate82]

The Brewers are also the only team in MLB that has a single digit E# for their division right now.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Considering the history of the franchise, these last 5 years have been pretty remarkable.

These are the good old days of Brewers baseball.

 

The Yount-Molitor era was pretty good too because from 1978-1992 the Brewers had several really good teams that were entertaining and competitive but didn’t get the playoff appearances in no small part because of being in the brutal AL East where there were always at least a couple very good teams. Every one of the 7 teams except the Indians won the division at least once in that period and advanced to the World Series. There were a few years in which the Brewers failed to make the playoffs despite having more wins (sometimes several more wins) than the winners of the AL West.

This is a good point. How many of those teams from '78-'92 would have made the playoffs if there was 3 division winners and two wild cards. I love watching the current club but those past teams were really good they just didn't get the playoff opportunities due to no wild card and more teams in the division to compete with.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If my memory is correct, in their franchise history the Brewers have only played one game in which they had a playoff spot, and their playoff position, locked in.

 

In 1981, they clinched their spot in the strike expanded division series on the second last day, making their last game meaningless.

 

In 1982 they won the division on the final day.

 

In 2008 they won the wild card spot on the final day.

 

In 2011 they clinched the division with 5 games to spare, but didn’t clinch home field in the division series until the final day. That home field advantage seemed valuable because the Brewers had a much better home record, and the division series played out that way as the home team won each game.

 

In 2018, they clinched a playoff berth with 3 games left, but won the division in Game 163.

 

In 2019 they clinched a wild card berth with 4 games left, but were not eliminated for the division until the final day.

 

In 2020, they backed into a spot in the playoffs on the final day.

 

This year they are on track to clinch the division and home field advantage in the NLDS with several games to spare. They still could be in the running for the 1 seed until the end.

 

The last completely meaningless game the Brewers have played was the final game in 2017, as they were eliminated from the wild card race on the second last day.

 

Considering the history of the franchise, these last 5 years have been pretty remarkable.

 

Very cool and notable that they likely will have their spot and seeding wrapped up with plenty of time to spare. I do want to note though that their last 3 games might mean nothing but at the same time might mean everything. There's a chance that the Brewers could be locked into the #2 seed come that final weekend but preventing the Dodgers from a division title and possible #1 seed, could be the difference between going to the World Series or not for the Brewers. I'm not saying that out of the belief the Brewers can't beat LA, but drastically changing the Dodgers path could clear the way for the Crew.

[BruisedCrew]

This is a good point. How many of those teams from '78-'92 would have made the playoffs if there was 3 division winners and two wild cards. I love watching the current club but those past teams were really good they just didn't get the playoff opportunities due to no wild card and more teams in the division to compete with.

 

In 1978, 1979, 1987, and 1992 the Brewers won more than 90 games and had a better record than the AL West winners.