2021 Brewers Optimism Thread

[umphrey]

Not related to the MLB but I can't remember a better year for our MiLB prospects in terms of top guys playing well in addition to lower rated guys potentially making big jumps in their stock. We were consensus bottom 5 system entering the year so I'll be interested to see where we end up in upcoming rankings.

 

Mitchell, Turang, Small, Ashby are all looking like MLB locks

Joe Gray Jr, Howell, Warren, Valerio, Hamilton, Olson are all going to climb in a big way

Lutz and Feliciano are probably the only noteworthy drops, but Feliciano doesn't have that many ABs and Lutz was trending in that direction anyway

[Eye Black]

Per Adam McCalvy:

 

The Giants took a loss today so the Brewers have the best record in baseball since Willy Adames joined them on May 22.

 

Milwaukee is 24-10 beginning with that date.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Hiura is 4 for 13 since his call up. Raising his average 19 points. With 2 homers, a double and laser of a walk off sac fly.

 

I’m drinking the Kool Aid. He will be a force in the 2nd half! Biggest addition we could’ve made was getting him right.

[clancyphile]

And, if Travis Shaw's shoulder recovers... we've got more help on the way!

[wntrtxn21]

Not related to the MLB but I can't remember a better year for our MiLB prospects in terms of top guys playing well in addition to lower rated guys potentially making big jumps in their stock. We were consensus bottom 5 system entering the year so I'll be interested to see where we end up in upcoming rankings.

 

Mitchell, Turang, Small, Ashby are all looking like MLB locks

Joe Gray Jr, Howell, Warren, Valerio, Hamilton, Olson are all going to climb in a big way

Lutz and Feliciano are probably the only noteworthy drops, but Feliciano doesn't have that many ABs and Lutz was trending in that direction anyway

 

I watched he T-Rats play against Peoria. Olson did not look good at all. Started out at 96 in the 1st inning and was 91-93 from the second inning on. He allowed 4 hits/3 runs in 4 IPs. Walked 7 and K'd 3. Howell and Mitchell both were very impressive. Really good speed and both are very good with the bat. I imagine they both will move up to AA this year.

[brewmann04]

I would be great get Keston and Yelich and Luis hitting the ball like we expect the offense will hard to stop. The starters need to continue to roll and hopefully Lauer can pitch the same like he does VS the NL West. The Bullpen is loaded Broxberger ,Williams,and Hader but if they get help from Cousins and Sanchez that will solidify the back end.

[LouisEly]

Strickland and Cousins have added some stability to the bullpen. Urias has added some stability to 3B. Hiura may have righted the ship. Need to get CF going (either a hot streak for JBJ or get Cain back). All they need is a LHRP (I think Ashby/Small are more likely to be September adds) and once they get Cain, Vogelbach, and Topa back they'll run away with the division.

[pacopete4]

I mean, the Brewers have built a 3-game lead in the Central. Keep adding to it!

[igor67]

I'll settle for winning the series, but sweep away and enjoy a 6 game lead at the halfway point. And our remaining schedule still ranks as fairly easy.

[brewerfan82]

[pacopete4]

Stearns (and Co.) and Counsell. Man, are we lucky to have some of the best minds in the business. They just continue to outplay what many think of their teams.

[StearnsFTW]

 

There's going to be a lot of money sitting in Vegas for me if it plays out this way. I have the Brewers over 83 wins and to win the Central at 3-1.

[jjfanec]

Stearns (and Co.) and Counsell. Man, are we lucky to have some of the best minds in the business. They just continue to outplay what many think of their teams.

 

To back this point right now there are only 3 teams in bottom 15 of payroll who would currently be playoff teams. The Brewers are one of them, along with the As and Rays. Those are two teams I want to be included with. In NL the other current playoff teams have payrolls of - 250 million, 197 million, 173 million, and 154 million. The Brewers are 93 million so the closest team is 61 million more than us.

 

There are non playoff teams that have payrolls of - 184, 171, 166, 155, and 143 million. Our team is functioning with at least 50 million less than these team but is currently ahead of all of them.

 

Our management has figured out how to win with less and has built a really exciting team.

[HarveysWBs]

Best record and run differential in the National League!!!*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*this side of the Rocky Mountains…

[gregmag]

Biggest division lead in the majors.

[roadcrew3]

And, if Travis Shaw's shoulder recovers... we've got more help on the way!

 

This is positive thinking and I know its the optimism thread so I'll try to state this accordingly...but at this point, when Shaw returns I'm not sure if there is a spot for him or atleast, not sure where his ABs are going to come from. Urias, Adames, and a healthy Wong are all playing like guys you want in the lineup everyday. Hiura looks to be regaining form too...not many more ABs to go around for that infield.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers are on pace for one of their best starts to a season at the AS Break ever. Their current winning percentage is higher than they had in 2011/2014/2018 and even 1982.

 

Some of you older folks may recall any other hot starts. The highest in that bunch was .563, I believe. They currently sit at .581

 

No spot for Shaw on the roster is optimism!

[jonescm128]

Getting Yelich going is huge. I thought this was interesting...

 

2018 1st Half

 

PA - 357

BA - .292

OBP - .364

SLG - .459

ISO - .167

K% - 23.2%

BB% - 9.2%

AB/HR - 28.9

 

2021 1st Half

 

PA - 186

BA - .253

OBP - .409

SLG - .404

ISO - .151

K% - 27.9%

BB% - 20.4%

AB/HR - 29.2

 

As frustrating as it has been watching Yelich struggle (compared to his full year 2018/2019 numbers) his first half in 2018 wasn't out of this world. It was the second half where he really went on a tear. Here is to hoping he can find that power stroke again in the second half!

[roadcrew3]

Yelich's 20% walk rate is ridiculous...he obviously has a good eye but pitchers are also pretty clearly working around him and not giving him much to hit. Hopefully the Adames HR last night is the beginning of Yelich having more protection in the lineup and going forward, maybe teams will start to think twice about if they are better off putting him on just to face Hiura/Adames/Garcia with an extra man on base.

[sveumrules]

Yelich's 20% walk rate is ridiculous...he obviously has a good eye but pitchers are also pretty clearly working around him and not giving him much to hit. Hopefully the Adames HR last night is the beginning of Yelich having more protection in the lineup and going forward, maybe teams will start to think twice about if they are better off putting him on just to face Hiura/Adames/Garcia with an extra man on base.

 

Pretty interesting article at FanGraphs today about the cat & mouse game going on between pitchers & Yelich the last couple years...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/theres-a-new-old-book-on-christian-yelich/

 

As the rolling zone % graph illustrates pitchers have started to challenge Yelich more as he's shown an increasingly passive/decreasingly powerful approach since 2020.

 

Hopefully everything is coming together for Christian body & approach wise to start punishing those mistakes with more frequency. I know I'm taking the over on his current .404 slugging.

[IIAY]

The Brewers are on pace for one of their best starts to a season at the AS Break ever. Their current winning percentage is higher than they had in 2011/2014/2018 and even 1982.

 

Some of you older folks may recall any other hot starts. The highest in that bunch was .563, I believe. They currently sit at .581

 

No spot for Shaw on the roster is optimism!

 

The 1979 team had a .587 winning percentage at the all-star break (54-38 record). The next highest was the 1982 team at .578.

 

Because the number of games before the all-star game varies so drastically (anywhere from 75 games to 98 games in full 162-game seasons), I like to look at the record at the true halfway point (after 81 games) which happens to be Wednesday's finale against the Cubs.

 

Here are the best records for Brewers' teams after 81 games:

 

2014 49-32 .605

2018 48-33 .593

2007 47-34 .580

1979 47-34 .580

1982 46-35 .568

1980 46-35 .568

1978 46-35 .568

 

If the Brewers sweep the Cubs, they will tie the 2018 squad for the second best record at the halfway point, trailing only the 2014 team (which we won't talk about since this is the optimism thread).

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The way this season is shaping up, I am starting to think it may be our best chance at a WS appearance in my lifetime. One of the teams from the West is likely out in the WC game. It is within the realm of possibility that the Dodgers lose the play-in game. With our rotation, this thing is wide open for us.

[PeaveyFury]

After the sweep of the Cubs, the Brewers have 86% playoff odds, per Fangraphs.

[Oxy]

After the sweep of the Cubs, the Brewers have 86% playoff odds, per Fangraphs.

 

I'm done with playoff odds. Give me Championship odds or at least WS odds.

[roadcrew3]

Willy Adames has so far been what I hoped Orlando Arcia would be