Badger Football 2021

[pacopete4]

The new AD has a big task in front of him. He has to see that change is necessary. If he doesn’t, Badger football is in trouble.

[Fear The Chorizo]

At some point, at SOME point, the school and the fan base have to get over the whole idea that we're a running team, we're running back U, and we MUST run the ball all the time. It's fine and good to be run orientated, and be able to run the ball, and grind out yards, and be able to get guys like Melvin Gordon and J. Taylor and the like, but we absolutely can't get guys to come play QB here, we can't get WR commits, because why would they? We throw the ball 20 - 25 times a game, and those type of players will never get a chance to showcase their skills in this system.

 

The whole idea that we have to run 45-50 times a game because "that's the way we've always done it" is stodgy, old, and honestly, holding the program back.

 

Yep, we got a 4* recruit QB, and he looks like he just might suck. He has nobody to throw to except a big TE, that he can't ever seem to find. The WR corps sucks, there's not a SINGLE guy in the group who can run clean routes or get separation, and certainly nobody who's going to burn someone deep. Mertz needs to get better, but he needs help. Our O-line couldn't pass block a group of 8th graders, because WE ARE A RUNNING TEAM DADGUMMIT!!!

 

I am by no means saying lets just run 5 wide sets and abandon everything that got them here, but we need a coach who has at least an inkling of creativity, and it sure looked like PC was gonna be that guy. One might say he's hamstrung by the lack of talent on the roster, but if that's the case, who's fault is that? These are his guys by now, so where's the talent?

 

It actually all still starts with the o-line. IMO, they aren't athletic enough to run block or pass block effectively as a unit to run any kind of system. If people want to run more of a pass-happy system, UW needs to do a better job of finding o-lineman that can pass block, not just picking from a laundry list of 6-5 320lb highschoolers from WI that have poor agility.

[LouisEly]

At some point, at SOME point, the school and the fan base have to get over the whole idea that we're a running team, we're running back U, and we MUST run the ball all the time. It's fine and good to be run orientated, and be able to run the ball, and grind out yards, and be able to get guys like Melvin Gordon and J. Taylor and the like, but we absolutely can't get guys to come play QB here, we can't get WR commits, because why would they? We throw the ball 20 - 25 times a game, and those type of players will never get a chance to showcase their skills in this system.

 

The whole idea that we have to run 45-50 times a game because "that's the way we've always done it" is stodgy, old, and honestly, holding the program back.

The run-first doesn't seem to hinder Michigan and their recruitment. In 2017 they averaged 27 pass/41 rush, in 2018 27/42, in 2019 32/38, 2020 36/29 (and subsequently 2-4, their worst year), and 2021 so far 16/46 (their best start in years). Ohio State leans run - in 2017 31/42, in 2018 40/41, 2019 29/47, 2020 28/43 (in the national championship game), 2021 32/33 (their worst start in years). In the year that Russell Wilson was QB UW averaged 23 pass to 44 rush, and Wilson still threw for 3000 yards and 33 TDs. The running game threat opened up the passing game.

 

I don't recall seeing one jet sweep yesterday; I don't recall them even faking it (but they did run some motion across). They have the perfect guy to run it - Guerendo. They don't stack two WRs out wide and do any quick WR screens like they did with Cephus and even going back to Abby/Toon. Looked like ND had a triangle 2nd level defense with the safety up behind the ILBs because there was no threat to the outside.

 

I don't know if Chryst is over his head with HC/OC-playcalling/QB coach on his plate. That might be why they tried Rudy as OC/play-calling; Rudy is still listed as the run game coordinator, so maybe the lack of jet sweep is on him? But they can be a run-first team and succeed if they go back to what made them successful which was motion and shifts to confuse the defense. Maybe the solution is to bring in a full-time OC, but they are only allowed 10 coaches in FBS so someone will need to be replaced. Their WR and RB coaches are new so maybe there is some adjustment going in there.

 

What we don't know is if the play-calling is holding back the players, or if the players are holding back the play-calling (and they have to simplify the playbook because the players are having difficulty with it).

[SomewhereInTime]

At some point, at SOME point, the school and the fan base have to get over the whole idea that we're a running team, we're running back U, and we MUST run the ball all the time. It's fine and good to be run orientated, and be able to run the ball, and grind out yards, and be able to get guys like Melvin Gordon and J. Taylor and the like, but we absolutely can't get guys to come play QB here, we can't get WR commits, because why would they? We throw the ball 20 - 25 times a game, and those type of players will never get a chance to showcase their skills in this system.

 

The whole idea that we have to run 45-50 times a game because "that's the way we've always done it" is stodgy, old, and honestly, holding the program back.

 

Yep, we got a 4* recruit QB, and he looks like he just might suck. He has nobody to throw to except a big TE, that he can't ever seem to find. The WR corps sucks, there's not a SINGLE guy in the group who can run clean routes or get separation, and certainly nobody who's going to burn someone deep. Mertz needs to get better, but he needs help. Our O-line couldn't pass block a group of 8th graders, because WE ARE A RUNNING TEAM DADGUMMIT!!!

 

I am by no means saying lets just run 5 wide sets and abandon everything that got them here, but we need a coach who has at least an inkling of creativity, and it sure looked like PC was gonna be that guy. One might say he's hamstrung by the lack of talent on the roster, but if that's the case, who's fault is that? These are his guys by now, so where's the talent?

 

No the run/pass percentages are fine. This is college football, 20-25 passes in a game is fine and LouisEly has some good numbers below. What Wisconsin really needs to do is incorporate more spread concepts into their offense. As seen around the country, you can run the ball a high percentage of the time out of the spread.

[CheezWizHed]

I thought we had some highly ranked WR coming in...what happened to them? Seems like we've been stuck with meh WRs since Abredderis.

[MrTPlush]

I thought we had some highly ranked WR coming in...what happened to them? Seems like we've been stuck with meh WRs since Abredderis.

 

Looking at the ESPN rankings, no one any better ranked than the guys taking the field. 76-77 grade WRs.

[MrTPlush]

I saw the headline of this article and wondered if PC was about to throw himself under the bus. Spoiler, he just blames the rest of the players.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chryst-says-wisconsins-troubles-offense-220158349.html

[JosephC]

Offensive failures have nothing to do with offensive philosophy but a complete failure in recruiting IMO.

 

QB and the "we only sign one player at the position per class" is a prime example.

 

2017 = Jack Coan, Danny Vanden Boom

2018 = Chase Wolf

2019 = Graham Mertz

2020 = None

2021 = Deacon Hill

 

For those that remember, Vanden Boom was a last second offer as other prospects went elsewhere which left one scholarship out there. Vanden Boom was an Athlete prospect and it seems most thought his best chance was at safety. I never heard anything out of practice reports that would have slightly indicated that Vanden Boom could even be a decent #2.

 

The early practice reports on Chase Wolf was that he had plus-plus mobility (which Badger fans have yet to see on the field) but as a thrower he was very marginal and was more of a mop-up #2 type rather than a guy you could trust to start two or three games if needed. It's hard for me to believe the coaches ever envisioned Wolf as a player who could play meaningful minutes and be effective after he got on campus and had a few practices.

 

So we jump to 2020 and the Rivals database have Wisconsin as only offering 4 quarterbacks in that class. One was a really highly regarded guy out of Georgia who was never going to come to Wisconsin. Of the other three, only one had an official visit (Parker McQuarrie, who went to UCLA). I just don't understand the lack of recruiting at that spot when you have 4 guys in the QB room, one is about to graduate (or in this case, transfer out a year earlier) and 2 are guys who you know can't play.

 

Even dumber yet is that Coan probably would have stuck around had the coaching staff had given him a legitimate, fair chance to compete, but instead of looking at the depth chart...they evidently decided that it was all Mertz because with Coan gone it looks like the only other possibility is Hill and I don't see him getting on the field at all this year. So not only should they have been recruiting QB hard in 2020, they should have been committed to bring in 2 QBs in 2021.

 

Leaving themselves this short at QB is a total recruiting failure.

 

And this post isn't all to dump on Mertz....I'll say it again...from top to bottom this offense is the "least football talented" offense I've seen at Wisconsin in at least two decades. Lots and lots of recruiting deficiencies on that side of the ball.

[nate82]

I saw the headline of this article and wondered if PC was about to throw himself under the bus. Spoiler, he just blames the rest of the players.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chryst-says-wisconsins-troubles-offense-220158349.html

 

PC is basically Matt Nagy. Neither are willing to make adjustments or changes to their offensive scheme to fit the players that they have. It is always on the players and never on the coaching staff not making adjustments to the players that they have. I have no confidence in PC ever making an adjustment to the offense or doing something creative to help his players out.

 

Development wise at least at the QB position and the WR position this coaching staff is way below average. There are D3 schools that are better at developing QB's and WR's than the Badgers are.

[tmwiese55]

I'd probably disagree there with Josephs post. These are the two best recruited QBs they've ever had in Coan and Mertz. One QB a class is common practice and Wolf was offered by OSU and other big programs. Coan under us looked like a good game manager type, on ND he's wizzing the ball around (granted small sample so far). They've also never recruited OL and WR better than they have since these guys have been back. I put this on a training/development problem and/or scheme or play design/calling.

 

To me this all starts with the OL since they've been back not really being close to the OL play when they were here before and the few years afterwards. After this many years if there isn't clear improvement by end of year they have to shake up OC/OL coach. The OL coach that led to those dominant offenses back then is coaching LBs here right now.

[BillScottCanRake]

At some point, at SOME point, the school and the fan base have to get over the whole idea that we're a running team, we're running back U, and we MUST run the ball all the time. It's fine and good to be run orientated, and be able to run the ball, and grind out yards, and be able to get guys like Melvin Gordon and J. Taylor and the like, but we absolutely can't get guys to come play QB here, we can't get WR commits, because why would they? We throw the ball 20 - 25 times a game, and those type of players will never get a chance to showcase their skills in this system.

 

The whole idea that we have to run 45-50 times a game because "that's the way we've always done it" is stodgy, old, and honestly, holding the program back.

The run-first doesn't seem to hinder Michigan and their recruitment. In 2017 they averaged 27 pass/41 rush, in 2018 27/42, in 2019 32/38, 2020 36/29 (and subsequently 2-4, their worst year), and 2021 so far 16/46 (their best start in years). Ohio State leans run - in 2017 31/42, in 2018 40/41, 2019 29/47, 2020 28/43 (in the national championship game), 2021 32/33 (their worst start in years). In the year that Russell Wilson was QB UW averaged 23 pass to 44 rush, and Wilson still threw for 3000 yards and 33 TDs. The running game threat opened up the passing game.

 

I don't recall seeing one jet sweep yesterday; I don't recall them even faking it (but they did run some motion across). They have the perfect guy to run it - Guerendo. They don't stack two WRs out wide and do any quick WR screens like they did with Cephus and even going back to Abby/Toon. Looked like ND had a triangle 2nd level defense with the safety up behind the ILBs because there was no threat to the outside.

 

I don't know if Chryst is over his head with HC/OC-playcalling/QB coach on his plate. That might be why they tried Rudy as OC/play-calling; Rudy is still listed as the run game coordinator, so maybe the lack of jet sweep is on him? But they can be a run-first team and succeed if they go back to what made them successful which was motion and shifts to confuse the defense. Maybe the solution is to bring in a full-time OC, but they are only allowed 10 coaches in FBS so someone will need to be replaced. Their WR and RB coaches are new so maybe there is some adjustment going in there.

 

What we don't know is if the play-calling is holding back the players, or if the players are holding back the play-calling (and they have to simplify the playbook because the players are having difficulty with it).

 

I have thought a lot about the offense, and I agree with a lot of Loooooooouisssss Ely's post. I really do wonder about the bolded line especially.

 

Running the ball 40+ times a game is fine. And in those years where the OL on top of its game and you have back like JT, you can telegraph plays and still get 5, 6, 7 yards because your talent is superior to the opposition.

 

This years team isn't as good at the OL and RB position as it has been recently, so they can't be predictable and count on their physical dominance to win the day. I'd like to see more creativity from the run game, and I'd like to see more pass plays that are just an extension of the running game called on early downs. There are a lot of ways to get 4, 5, 6 yards without lining up a back 8 yards behind the quarterback. And you can throw the ball on early downs without trying to push the ball downfield. Play-action shot plays are fine, but 2nd-and-10 has been a killer for them this year because that turns into 3rd-and-7 or worse most of the time.

 

I wonder if the lack of adjustments and creativity are due to the coaching staff not adjusting or the players not allowing the coaches to adjust.

[MrTPlush]

One notable thing in the article I linked is PC was criticizing the communication between Mertz and the RBs, how it needs to improve. Though he then referenced a play where the RBs went somewhere wrong and then pre-snap Mertz had to fix it. But that sounds like good communication...? So I don't get where PC was going with that. Regardless, we can beg for creativity and pre-snap movement...but if the RBs are too incompetent to do the plays correctly or Mertz is too incompetent to fix it before hiking the ball it won't really work.

 

Honestly it feels like the players on offense just don't mesh at all and are not executing simple things. I think a lot of that is the leadership. Whether that be PC on the sideline or Mertz in the huddle. Statistically Mertz undeniably sucks, but I think he is failing to be a leader and help the guys around him maximize their value. Which I suppose shouldn't be surprising when he can't really improve himself.

 

And yah there are a lot of things not helping Mertz/PC on offense. The RBs just aren't that great and the offensive line isn't as good as it has been previously. Still seems it shouldn't be this bad though.

[CheezWizHed]

Coan under us looked like a good game manager type, on ND he's wizzing the ball around (granted small sample so far).

 

Whizzing the ball around doesn't mean he is playing better though. He is getting around 50 yds/game more than his average in 2019 and a higher TD rate (and INT rate). But his completion percentage is way down (60.2 vs 69.6%).

 

And most of that came from playing Florida State, Purdue, and Toledo.

 

Yes, we wanted him to play more conservatively and feature JT at running back. Who wouldn't? But he still looks pretty much like the same game manager type to me. They let him throw it more but it doesn't really fit him well.

[SomewhereInTime]

Coan under us looked like a good game manager type, on ND he's wizzing the ball around (granted small sample so far).

 

Whizzing the ball around doesn't mean he is playing better though. He is getting around 50 yds/game more than his average in 2019 and a higher TD rate (and INT rate). But his completion percentage is way down (60.2 vs 69.6%).

 

And most of that came from playing Florida State, Purdue, and Toledo.

 

Yes, we wanted him to play more conservatively and feature JT at running back. Who wouldn't? But he still looks pretty much like the same game manager type to me. They let him throw it more but it doesn't really fit him well.

 

In fairness to Toledo, that was the toughest opponent Notre Dame has faced all year. All it would've taken for a Toledo win was a receiver not scoring, Toledo taking a few knees, and then kicking a chip shot field goal to win as time expired.

[MrTPlush]

Of course his INTs are up and completion percentage are down...his current team lets him actually be a QB. I think Coan is proving he has arm and the range to actually help make plays. Instead of just making sure he doesn't help lose the game, he can make some of the plays that make you win. I don't think he is vastly better now...but he is certainly showing he had a bit more in his arm than the Badgers ever used.

 

Yeah, the Badgers had JT in 2019 so you wouldn't need to throw wild all the time. I don't think they made the team worse using Coan the way they did. Of course it is pretty generous to think PC would have really used Coan any different had JT not existed. I think the "eat crow" moment is more for what feels like most of the fanbase that was so happy to see him go and thought he sucked. Fitting that he would come help Notre Dame show up the Badgers while golden boy Mertz throws as many INTs in a game as Coan had in an entire year at Wisconsin.

 

Maybe they can pull out an upset win at home against Michigan. If Mertz could stop turning the ball over 5 times a game I think this defense could give them shots to upset Michigan/Iowa at home. Feels like if they are going to turn around this season and make something of it a win this week is deeply needed.

[CheezWizHed]

Oh, Coan is clearly better than Mertz... don't misread my posts. And I don't think PC would've (or should've) used Coan differently than he did. I'm saying they way they used Coan maximized his efficiency (or at least closer than how he is used now). I don't think Coan is a better QB at ND, he is just being used differently.

 

QBs that only complete 60% are very inefficient and he had a number of throws that were wildly inaccurate; I don't know if he has the arm to "be that guy". Just getting an extra 50 yds per game (which I'll assume will go down as they play better teams) isn't worth all the incompletions it will incur. Coan isn't the QB that will carry the team... he is a good game manager type, IMO.

 

I did say they bet on Mertz becoming better than Coan. I do believe he has more upside than Coan... but also a lower floor (obviously). I'm shocked at how much worse he is right now. In fact, I think he may have regressed...

[stoutdude04]

I realize Wisconsin is at home, but I still have no idea how they are 2 point faves again this weekend.

[tmwiese55]

I realize Wisconsin is at home, but I still have no idea how they are 2 point faves again this weekend.

 

Same, our reputation must be just holding strong. But I get it: Home, need a bounce back badly, blew Mich out the last two years, Mich almost lost to Rut last week, Mich has done poorly in games like this the last few years. ETA: Also, Mich is heavy run team and our run D is one of best

 

Another quirk to it is ND is a dog at home to Cincy. Yes Cincy is legit, but that shows how little they think of ND to make them dogs at home. I haven't looked up an update on Coan's injury though or if the young backup is playing, though I think he's looked good too. Generally speaking I think ND and Mich are being slightly underrated, which is weird since it's usually the opposite. Hopefully 3 days from now I look dumb for saying that.

[yourout]

Oh, Coan is clearly better than Mertz... don't misread my posts. And I don't think PC would've (or should've) used Coan differently than he did. I'm saying they way they used Coan maximized his efficiency (or at least closer than how he is used now). I don't think Coan is a better QB at ND, he is just being used differently.

 

QBs that only complete 60% are very inefficient and he had a number of throws that were wildly inaccurate; I don't know if he has the arm to "be that guy". Just getting an extra 50 yds per game (which I'll assume will go down as they play better teams) isn't worth all the incompletions it will incur. Coan isn't the QB that will carry the team... he is a good game manager type, IMO.

 

I did say they bet on Mertz becoming better than Coan. I do believe he has more upside than Coan... but also a lower floor (obviously). I'm shocked at how much worse he is right now. In fact, I think he may have regressed...

 

No question he has regressed. Now he is so scared of making mistakes he is late on releases and he still ends up making bad decisions.

[stoutdude04]

Oh, Coan is clearly better than Mertz... don't misread my posts. And I don't think PC would've (or should've) used Coan differently than he did. I'm saying they way they used Coan maximized his efficiency (or at least closer than how he is used now). I don't think Coan is a better QB at ND, he is just being used differently.

 

QBs that only complete 60% are very inefficient and he had a number of throws that were wildly inaccurate; I don't know if he has the arm to "be that guy". Just getting an extra 50 yds per game (which I'll assume will go down as they play better teams) isn't worth all the incompletions it will incur. Coan isn't the QB that will carry the team... he is a good game manager type, IMO.

 

I did say they bet on Mertz becoming better than Coan. I do believe he has more upside than Coan... but also a lower floor (obviously). I'm shocked at how much worse he is right now. In fact, I think he may have regressed...

 

No question he has regressed. Now he is so scared of making mistakes he is late on releases and he still ends up making bad decisions.

 

It also seems like he 'floats' balls to the outside. If there is one thing I learned from my Madden days, if you float a ball to the outside it is probably going the other way(see ND 4th quarter).

[yourout]

I almost wish they had some kind of a wildcat package with Berger taking the snaps with Mulluzi in the backfield and Garendo on the field running jet sweeps

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I know the analytics say going for it on 4th and short is the right call at midfield, but I just don't think you want to give a struggling offense a short field.

 

I don't think Wisconsin is very good, but it would be very nice to deflate all the optimism in Ann Arbor.

[PinaMadness]

I know the analytics say going for it on 4th and short is the right call at midfield, but I just don't think you want to give a struggling offense a short field.

 

I don't think Wisconsin is very good, but it would be very nice to deflate all the optimism in Ann Arbor.

You overestimate our offense. Harbaugh rightfully showing his lack of respect for them. Twice.

[yourout]

This team is completely void of Big Time playmakers.

Lots of guys that are almost playmakers but none of them that are able to finish the deal.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I know the analytics say going for it on 4th and short is the right call at midfield, but I just don't think you want to give a struggling offense a short field.

 

I don't think Wisconsin is very good, but it would be very nice to deflate all the optimism in Ann Arbor.

You overestimate our offense. Harbaugh rightfully showing his lack of respect for them. Twice.

 

Yeah, even a short field feels very long. Sigh.